2014 Summer Blockbuster Movie Pool

[_MJ_]

 

I think I just realize I don't understand the percentage points for the tiebreak.  Haha.

 

Dead at Lacelle in second place after we were giving her shit about her list earlier on.

 

I don't get how The Erotic Terrorist only has 2 points on his Rotten Tomato list after 8 weeks.  Bizarre.

 

The tiebreak is basically the percentage your prediction was off by.  A lower number is better.  If the movie you used as a tiebreak hasn't come out yet, it shows as "n/a". For example, Maleficent finished at $193,615,390, Jae predicted it'd be $188,000,000, he's off by just 2.9% (which shows as 0.029).

 

Explanation about Erotic Terrorist's RT list in the spoiler.  Spoiled for length.

 

Thanks for the tiebreaker explanation.

 

I was only being facetious with my The Erotic Terrorist comment.  That RT score deserves praise after 8 weeks. 

 

Interested in seeing how The Giver and the sequel to Dawn of the Apes do on both lists

Edited June 28, 2014 by _MJ_

[blitzkrieg]

Looking at my list and where things currently stand I could see my box office rating being not that bad. My two biggest hits so far are going be underestimating Godzilla and overestimating HTTYD2 but I figure the latter will move up a little bit before it ends and the former will fall a bit. I am a little concerned about how GotG is going do simply because while I'm excited about the movie, none of the trailers or the commercials have gotten me remotely exciting.

 

I don't want to talk about my RT list.

[Brian Fowler]

May have spoken too soon on Transformers, actually.  It had a monster day Friday, and should go above 100 million after all.

[Reed]

Partly why I didn't participate in this contest is that I cannot even begin to fathom a population that are flocking to see a transformers sequel in their droves. Like, I can't even start to guess what would be a box office hit or not, because that fact alone throws everything out of balance.

[Brian Fowler]

I get what you mean in general, but there are three previous movies to use as research in that franchise.

[Chaos]

People are naturally self loathing. I had a lot of people on my Facebook feed checking in to see it and then post that they had no clue why they were.

I also had a lot of people that enjoyed it because all they want is mindless flash and explosions, which I am sure this movie dealt in droves.

[RIPPA]

Very very early but Dawn of Apes is at 92% (13 reviews - one rotten)

[RIPPA]

Oh Motherfucker!

 

I just finally went back and looked at my list and saw I put Maleficent third

 

What the fuck was I thinking?

 

Shit

[Bustronaut]

Jolie plus those trailers made it seem like a sure thing.  I blame blockbuster fatigue.

[Matt D]

I can't blame anyone who says fuck the movies these days. Last movie I went to with some friends it cost me $9 for a drink and junior mints. Imagine bringing a family.

We sneak in candy.

[Chaos]

 

I can't blame anyone who says fuck the movies these days. Last movie I went to with some friends it cost me $9 for a drink and junior mints. Imagine bringing a family.

We sneak in candy.

 

 

If I go by myself, I rarely get anything. The movie would have to be a minimum of 2 1/2 hours for me to consider dropping $5 on a Large drink. If I go with my fiance and we're smart, we'll sneak in bottled water and snacks in her purse, but that is not always the case either. She is the main culprit who wants popcorn and a drink most of the time.

 

After working at a movie theater for nearly a year, I generally can do without having popcorn.

[CSC]

 

 

I can't blame anyone who says fuck the movies these days. Last movie I went to with some friends it cost me $9 for a drink and junior mints. Imagine bringing a family.

We sneak in candy.

 

 

If I go by myself, I rarely get anything. The movie would have to be a minimum of 2 1/2 hours for me to consider dropping $5 on a Large drink. If I go with my fiance and we're smart, we'll sneak in bottled water and snacks in her purse, but that is not always the case either. She is the main culprit who wants popcorn and a drink most of the time.

 

After working at a movie theater for nearly a year, I generally can do without having popcorn.

 

 

This is why we pretty much only go to the drive in to see a movie these days.  $7/person for a double feature and we'll stop somewhere and pick up a full meal to eat in the car during the first movie and then snacks for the 2nd.  They even upgraded to digital projectors in the last couple years so it looks fairly descent.  Plus you don't have to sit in a theater with a bunch of annoying people trying not to focus on the noise they're making.

[_MJ_]

Jolie plus those trailers made it seem like a sure thing.  I blame blockbuster fatigue.

The problem is not with its box office numbers.  It's making tons of money; I think I heard it's already Jolie's highest earning live-action film.

 

The reviews are the issue.

[CSC]

 

Jolie plus those trailers made it seem like a sure thing.  I blame blockbuster fatigue.

The problem is not with its box office numbers.  It's making tons of money; I think I heard it's already Jolie's highest earning live-action film.

 

The reviews are the issue.

 

 

I blame

 

Maleficent turning someone else into the dragon and not herself

 

I mean...just fucking no.

[RIPPA]

Yeah - i should have specified that its my RT list that is getting boned

[S.K.o.S.]

UPDATE 9 OF 21 - through July 3

 

Standings

1 [- 1] hobo joe - 14 points (10/4, tiebreak n/a)
2 [- 2] Lacelle - 14 points (8/6, tiebreak n/a)
3 [↑ 4] Suicide King of Spades - 18 points (14/4, tiebreak 1.576)
4 [↓ 3] The Erotic Terrorist - 18 points (16/2, tiebreak n/a)
5 [↑ 6] -MJ- - 20 points (12/8, tiebreak n/a)
6 [↓ 5] Chaos - 22 points (14/8, tiebreak 0.328)
7 [↑ 9] The Z - 24 points (16/8, tiebreak 0.05)
8 [↓ 7] The Natural - 24 points (16/8, tiebreak n/a)
9 [↑ 14] Paco - 24 points (16/8, tiebreak n/a)
10 [↓ 8] Ligerbusa - 26 points (16/10, tiebreak n/a)
11 [↑ 18] Niners Fan in CT - 28 points (12/16, tiebreak 0.569)
12 [↓ 10] The Veeg - 28 points (22/6, tiebreak 0.599)
13 [- 13] DreamBroken - 28 points (22/6, tiebreak n/a)
14 [↓ 11] Super Ape - 30 points (18/12, tiebreak 1.53)
15 [↑ 21] pipGofern - 30 points (16/14, tiebreak n/a)
16 [↑ 29] Cameron Swift - 32 points (14/18, tiebreak 0.145)
17 [↑ 25] caley - 32 points (12/20, tiebreak 0.337)
18 [↑ 20] Kevin Wilson - 32 points (20/12, tiebreak 1.031)
19 [↓ 17] Rippa - 32 points (20/12, tiebreak n/a)
20 [↓ 16] Control - 34 points (24/10, tiebreak 0.846)
21 [↓ 12] Death From Above - 34 points (18/16, tiebreak n/a)
22 [↑ 23] Dr. Bathroom - 34 points (18/16, tiebreak n/a)
23 [↑ 24] JRGoldman - 34 points (22/12, tiebreak n/a)
24 [↓ 19] Mike Zeidler - 34 points (20/14, tiebreak n/a)
25 [↓ 22] The Damn Yeti - 36 points (22/14, tiebreak n/a)
26 [↓ 15] Hoffman - 36 points (16/20, tiebreak n/a)
27 [↑ 30] jaedmc - 38 points (20/18, tiebreak 0.029)
28 [- 28] RossWB - 38 points (26/12, tiebreak 0.062)
29 [↓ 26] blitzkrieg - 40 points (24/16, tiebreak n/a)
30 [↑ 33] Elsalvajeloco - 40 points (30/10, tiebreak n/a)
31 [↓ 27] CSC - 40 points (24/16, tiebreak n/a)
32 [- 32] ivpvideos - 42 points (16/26, tiebreak n/a)
33 [↑ 34] Raziel403 - 42 points (22/20, tiebreak n/a)
34 [↓ 31] SorceressKnight - 44 points (22/22, tiebreak n/a)
35 [- 35] MushroomJones - 46 points (28/18, tiebreak n/a)
36 [↑ 37] Ultimo The Great - 48 points (28/20, tiebreak 0.198)
37 [↓ 36] Sublime - 52 points (22/30, tiebreak n/a)

 

Box office

1 [- 1] X-Men: Days of Future Past - $210,594,250 (28 days)

2 [- 2] Maleficent - $193,615,390 (28 days)

3 [- 3] The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $188,957,297 (28 days)

4 [- 4] Godzilla - $188,144,600 (28 days)

5 [↑ 6] 22 Jump Street - $149,454,343 (21 days)

6 [NEW] Transformers: Age of Extinction - $138,345,351 (7 days)

7 [↓ 5] Neighbors - $132,600,495 (28 days)

8 [↓ 7] How To Train Your Dragon 2 - $131,250,252 (21 days)

9 [↓ 8] Edge Of Tomorrow - $87,227,625 (28 days)

10 [↓ 9] A Million Ways To Die In The West - $41,158,955 (28 days)

 

Rotten Tomatoes

1 [- 1] How To Train Your Dragon 2 - 123/134 = 92% (21 days)

2 [- 2] X-Men: Days of Future Past - 205/224 = 92% (28 days)

3 [- 3] Edge Of Tomorrow - 211/235 = 90% (28 days)

4 [- 4] 22 Jump Street - 161/190 = 85% (21 days)

5 [- 5] Godzilla - 180/246 = 73% (28 days)

6 [- 6] Neighbors - 141/193 = 73% (28 days)

7 [- 7] The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - 133/250 = 53% (28 days)

8 [- 8] Maleficent - 91/182 = 50% (28 days)

9 [- 9] A Million Ways To Die In The West - 59/180 = 33% (28 days)

10 [NEW] Transformers: Age of Extinction - 24/139 = 17% (7 days)

[Death From Above]

I actually thought I'd drop further. My RT list, at this point, is clearly FUBAR because I thought critics might give Bay a pass the way they have with some other sequels last couple years, and that... did not happen.

[Niners Fan in CT]

Up to #11 wooooo

[EVA]

I actually thought I'd drop further. My RT list, at this point, is clearly FUBAR because I thought critics might give Bay a pass the way they have with some other sequels last couple years, and that... did not happen.

Yeah, you were definitely out of step with the critical zeitgeist, if that was your thought process. If anything, it's been the other way around, with most critics on a mission to desecrate the corpse of any franchise movie that isn't exceptionally good.

Speaking of zeitgeist, I think it's funny how quickly the moviegoing audience's interests can change from year to year.

Last year, horror was the MVP of the spring/summer season, with EVIL DEAD, THE PURGE, and THE CONJURING all opening #1 and picking up the slack while a lot of high-dollar blockbuster fare was disappointing. This year, horror seems to be a dud, and I doubt even the Purge insta-sequel is going to change that.

[caley]

I think #17 is the best I've ever done in this thing.  Time to celebrate!

[Chaos]

I keep slipping further down each week.

 

I am not wondering if I finish in the top ten.

[Sublime]

Just stay out of last place. That's my spot.

[J.T.]

People are naturally self loathing.

 

I am not sure if that is really true.

 

I am my own worse critic, but I have a pretty high opinion of myself.

 

I am looking forward to the Planet of the Apes joint.  Looks like it will be the Critic's Pick of the Summer. Currently at 95% Freshness, but I am not sure if it will make a ton of money though.

 

Usually franchises start off great and turn to shit.  This one started off shit and turned into fucking Rembrandt.

[RIPPA]

Apes is at 94% with 100 reviews in.

So it looks that will be in a fight with Dragon and X-Men and my RT list will weep

[Brian Fowler]

I'm really at a loss to explain the relatively disappointing box office for Dragon 2.  It's just now closing in on making it's budget domestically (and it's doing okay internationally, but it's not blowing anyone away.)

 

But the first film is the (non-inflation adjusted) all-time best non-Shrek domestic earner Dreamworks animation has ever released, and was beloved by that audience and critics.  An absurd 98% fresh on RT, with a user score of 4.2/5.

 

And the sequel appears for all the world to be getting good word of mouth, at 92% fresh and a user score of an even better 4.4/5. 

 

So, I'm lost.  Successful and beloved movie, a sequel that appears to be of a roughly equal quality, 4 years of inflation, and...  It looks highly unlikely it will even match the first film domestically. 

 

(All this is much less depressing than going to the box office thread and discussing what movie just became China's all-time box office king.)