AEW - DECEMBER 2024

[Overly Critical Man]

3 minutes ago, Casey said:

I know we don’t like ratings discourse here but honestly what the fuck is going on? Punk getting fired can’t be it, the ratings weren’t super great in 2023. Danielson only just now retired, or whatever. Sting was never that big of a TV presence.

TK put out a tweet earlier this year that said 2024 AEW is the new 2021 AEW. Do we (and him) view that period with rose tinted glasses? It seems like to me that AEW was hot because bringing in big names from WWE (I’m sorry, that’s just the way it is). Are Bryan and Punk some mythical unicorns that can’t be replicated again? I don’t think Kevin Owens jumping to AEW would have the same splash. Punk was an anomaly since he quit and was gone for like 7 years and finally came back to the challenger brand.

I just don’t get why they’re pulling like 400K+ for Dynamite last week, and a total of something like 200K+ for Collision/Rampage. Holiday week and all, but still. They lost half their audience for Dynamite compared to 2023’s episode.

I’m not doom saying, I love AEW, but I just don’t get it. I know their live+ numbers are most likely way better, since that’s also how I consume AEW television, but it’s just weird to me. Probably why I don’t run a television network I guess.

I’m gonna blame it on Moxley fatigue. People just aren’t that interested in The Death Riders and their doom and gloom “AEW sucks!” storyline.

[NoFistsJustFlips]

I think they've hit a point where the brand has a stink to it. (I know that sounds harsh. I still enjoy a lot of what they're doing but this is the best way to put it). They've done enough things that people don't like for long enough that what AEW is... is just not what a lot of people enjoy.

I'd also throw in a little of WWE getting hot hurting them in. In 2019 they were the alternative to a tired Vince run company. In 2024 they're more Vince like than WWE is. WWE production has improved. Their storytelling is better. Their attendance. Everything.

And then your top story is annoying people. Your booking style is annoying people. The over saturation is annoying people. It's just inertia. So much negative momentum steam rolling for so long has burned people out.

There's no magic bullet to get their mojo back either. Once people check out it's reallllyyyyyy hard to get them back.

[Matt D]

I still think we're underestimating cord cutting too. Especially for those who might be inclined to watch something like AEW. I don't have cable anymore. I did two years ago. It'd be one thing if they put on a really good show or pushed a really exciting match and it impacted the ratings but it almost never does, or it only does in very small ways. The ceiling is far lower than it was no matter what they do and while I think some of that is the product itself or the way people feel about it, it's just mostly there being less of an audience overall. We'll see what happens with the Max jump in a few weeks I guess.

[NoFistsJustFlips]

I hope Max & Netflix both report viewership in some way. Not too optimistic about them doing so tho. Probably just sporadic press releases when there's something they want to be known.

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

37 minutes ago, Matt D said:

I still think we're underestimating cord cutting too. Especially for those who might be inclined to watch something like AEW. I don't have cable anymore. I did two years ago. It'd be one thing if they put on a really good show or pushed a really exciting match and it impacted the ratings but it almost never does, or it only does in very small ways. The ceiling is far lower than it was no matter what they do and while I think some of that is the product itself or the way people feel about it, it's just mostly there being less of an audience overall. We'll see what happens with the Max jump in a few weeks I guess.

I should just write a macro that posts my "cable is dying, streaming is far more important" points from the last couple of years so I don't have to make them again.

But yeah, cable is dying, streaming is far more important, the only way to do it with AEW until they hit Max is to use a VPN, etc etc.

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

56 minutes ago, NoFistsJustFlips said:

I think they've hit a point where the brand has a stink to it. (I know that sounds harsh. I still enjoy a lot of what they're doing but this is the best way to put it). They've done enough things that people don't like for long enough that what AEW is... is just not what a lot of people enjoy.

I'd also throw in a little of WWE getting hot hurting them in. In 2019 they were the alternative to a tired Vince run company. In 2024 they're more Vince like than WWE is. WWE production has improved. Their storytelling is better. Their attendance. Everything.

And then your top story is annoying people. Your booking style is annoying people. The over saturation is annoying people. It's just inertia. So much negative momentum steam rolling for so long has burned people out.

There's no magic bullet to get their mojo back either. Once people check out it's reallllyyyyyy hard to get them back.

Oh, there's this too. It's just not a fun product to watch anymore. The world's grim enough, I don't need Jon Moxley and his neo-Nazi gimmick stomping around when there are real neo-Nazis marching on towns.

Give me back Alien Kris Statlander and push Willow Nightingale to the moon. That's all I ask.

[Matt D]

3 minutes ago, Stefanie Sparkleface said:

I should just write a macro that posts my "cable is dying, streaming is far more important" points from the last couple of years so I don't have to make them again.

But yeah, cable is dying, streaming is far more important, the only way to do it with AEW until they hit Max is to use a VPN, etc etc.

People want qualitative answers when it's probably more a systemic thing than anything else. Because something can be done about qualitative answers. I think they could put on the best wrestling show in the world for four months straight and it wouldn't make a huge difference.

Some things make a difference for some things. Promoting matches ahead of time seems to have helped live gates somewhat. Doing local media seems to help live gates somewhat. But overall and when it comes to ratings?

Well they've stacked Rampage this week with two C2 matches. We'll see if that matters.

[John E. Dynamite]

edit: i have one dumb idea and i forgot it breaks the rules

Edited December 4, 2024 by John E. Dynamite

[Ramo2653]

I'll pile on too.

I think the current numbers are what is the base for the "sickos" is. They have their base and the new deal will allow them to generate revenue from that base and that'll be that. I don't think there's a magic bullet that will bring their numbers back up unless they pull in a really big name or 2 from WWE (so someone in the Seth/Roman/Becky/Charlotte/Bianca/Rhea tier) and present them correctly. But then they'd have to nail their other stuff to keep those folks. And if there is some other magic bullet, we won't know what it is until it happens.

I'd argue they're in a spot similar to WWE in the late 2010s where it's kind of blah with good moments thrown in there but revenue-wise they're set due to TV revenue. Ideally you'd want to take that opportunity to take some risks to see what pans out. Vince and Co didn't but finally hit the button on the Roman turn and Cody came back.

I've said my piece on the Death Riders stuff so I won't rehash it here, but I'm so glad they're using Mox's NJPW theme instead of Wild Thing.

For the good stuff:

C2 is my jam, give me some good ass wrestlers having some good ass matches and I'm good, just not every single week of the year, but for a month period? Hell Yeah! I think the ladies should get more time they're killing it in their spots on the Rampage/Collison and I think they should be featured more on Dynamite and I hope they're getting back to it as the year ends and we move into 2025.

[Go2Sleep]

2 hours ago, Stefanie Sparkleface said:

Oh, there's this too. It's just not a fun product to watch anymore. The world's grim enough, I don't need Jon Moxley and his neo-Nazi gimmick stomping around when there are real neo-Nazis marching on towns.

Wait what? The Death Riders angle isn't the most exciting thing in the world, but what am I missing here? 2 guys in the group have shaved heads and one could pass as German to an American audience I guess?

DOA was neo-nazi gimmick, and the Harris Brothers were like actual white supremacists with SS tats and everything. Death Riders is just another generic NWO ripoff.

[odessasteps]

I'm surprised the Thanksgiving Eve ratings drop wasn't bigger than it was, so maybe that's a mild positive for their supporters. 

[odessasteps]

Claudio was part of the weird German heel stable in Chikara, which is around the time I stopped going. 

[Infinit]

I got myself a VPN on Black Friday, and got AEW Plus. No more commercials and cheap PPVs from now on! Huzzah!

[ExcellenceofAirPollution]

2 hours ago, Stefanie Sparkleface said:

Oh, there's this too. It's just not a fun product to watch anymore. The world's grim enough, I don't need Jon Moxley and his neo-Nazi gimmick stomping around when there are real neo-Nazis marching on towns.

Give me back Alien Kris Statlander and push Willow Nightingale to the moon. That's all I ask.

That's definitely part of the problem.  There's some fun/goofy stuff on the weekend shows from time to time but Dynamite hasn't had the "must see" anything can happen party vibe in a while.  I think the tonal shift to being more WWE-lite is a big part of it too

And there aren't any top babyfaces for the crowd to really get behind.  Darby still has the connection but that's about it.  They took the belt off Swerve just when he was really gaining momentum.  OC has a ceiling and is a retread.  They've squandered Ospreay's momentum.  Ricochet isn't that guy and he's already been beaten a few times.  Whoever starts getting hot they need to pivot and run with IMO because they need someone to catch fire fast.  If it's a heel, F it, turn em.  They need something.

It was really noticeable on the PPV with so many heels going over, then Mox winning, and it was kind of a draining bummer to watch.  And it's felt that way for months, with the Danielson stuff, it's just been heavy heel heat and heel champions up and down

When business is down, ratings are down, they're struggling to sell tickets....I really question the logic of going as heel heavy as they have in their booking.  You've got Mox & Company, Callis Family, Hurt Syndicate, MJF as a big bad......it's too much and most people aren't going to get invested in a product like that

There's also the problem of Tony trying to manufacture pushes stubbornly when people aren't over to that level.  I like Daniel Garcia but he's not over at the level they're pushing him.  Same with Perry.  The Private Party thing was forced because Tony wanted to reward them for being around for 5 years or whatever but they're coming out to crickets.  Putting a title on someone doesn't just automatically get them over.  Meanwhile Outrunners, who I'm fine with but not over the moon for, were really over and if they'd struck while the iron was hot and had them beat the Bucks who knows?  They're fun and unique and were selling merch, why not try to hotshot something?

Same thing with Mortos, he was getting increasingly over week by week, always getting cheered despite being a heel.....and they refuse to run with it.  Make it make sense.

This has been a shitty year of booking for TK on the whole.  Blew it with Ospreay.  I liked the use of Okada at the start but they're definitely not getting their money's worth at this point.  I can only think of a handful of people who are more over now than they were when the year started, and it's mainly people like Harley getting themselves over and people the crowd take to.  I don't watch WWE but just looking at their booking on paper it's so much more competent.  Just from reading/listening to recaps I know where people are in the pecking order, what the overarching stories are....it all looks and sounds simple and effective, and it's clearly working.  I watch AEW and I forget what's going on, wonder why people disappear for weeks without explanation etc. etc.  I know TK is capable of booking a good product, and AEW has gone through a lot of ups and downs......but the other stuff on his plate and burnout is clearly taking a toll on the product.  I care less about the ratings than the crowds and the crowds say there's a problem

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

25 minutes ago, Go2Sleep said:

Wait what? The Death Riders angle isn't the most exciting thing in the world, but what am I missing here? 2 guys in the group have shaved heads and one could pass as German to an American audience I guess?

DOA was neo-nazi gimmick, and the Harris Brothers were like actual white supremacists with SS tats and everything. Death Riders is just another generic NWO ripoff.

Moxley based his new gimmick on Russell Crowe's character in Romper Stomper, who was a neo-Nazi, ergo it's a neo-Nazi gimmick.

[odessasteps]

At least Toni's gimmick was (in theory) based on Sunset Boulevard, a good movie that most people remember. 

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

15 minutes ago, odessasteps said:

At least Toni's gimmick was (in theory) based on Sunset Boulevard, a good movie that most people remember. 

Added bonus: no Nazis. (And Gloria Swanson actually helped people escape the Nazis, even.)

[odessasteps]

Just Erich Von Stroheim.

[Nice Guy Eddie]

I can give Moxley a pass for being a fan of Romper Stomper. Now, if he shows up with SS tattoos like those asshole Harris brothers, that's a different story. I like American History X, it doesn't make me a neo-Nazi. Speaking of AHX, I really wish the deleted scene was left in the movie. In fact, more movies should have neo-Nazis getting the shit kicked out of them.

[username]

I've said this before and I only get more and more convinced it is true: it isn't that AEW is bleeding fans (although they do appear to be shrinking rather than growing) but that their existing fans used to be diehards who would prioritize catching AEW over anything else and that largely is no longer true. If there is any kind of competition a substantial portion of the fanbase will watch something else.  Years ago when both WWE and AEW got pissy and had a bit of a SD/Rampage showdown Rampage basically pulled off a draw/maybe slight edge, now NXT can switch nights against Dynamite and beat AEW's #1 show with a Bubba Dudley match.

I don't think that this is necessarily a red flag... but it is a yellow one. It is basically a (rough, unscientific) enthusiasm marker which suggests it is down, which tracks with several other things we've seen. I think they need to finish up this year through World's End and really take a hard look at what things are working and not in order to right the ship for 2025. Long term booking is only a strength if it works, sometimes you simply need to tear stuff up and start anew. Get MJF and Cole away from each other, now that Mone seems to have likely worked off all her ring rust she needs to be at an ace level so get her a hot feud and possibly a character tweak, figure out what is and isn't working with the Death Riders and adjust accordingly, anything big that ain't working at near 100% needs to go under the microscope. 

[Casey]

Not to derail the discussion that I created, but the Ryan Nemeth/AEW HR stuff is hilarious. Of course the headline that sites have ran away with involves Punk, but it’s actually not that big of a part of his complaint. But what they’re clickbaiting with is the fact that “people backstage ordered Nemeth” to keep antagonizing Punk and cut a promo about him. This is months after his “softest man alive” tweet, after Punk & Nemeth got into it and he was banned from Collision, and like 2 weeks before All In 2023 (where Punk didn’t have transportation provided for him whereas mostly everyone else did IIRC).

There’s also a bit in there about AEW wanting him to sign an NDA and would pay him a lot of money to do so.

[Gramsci]

I think there is a problem with booking and perception. But the quality of the product does not usually correlate with good/bad ratings. WWE's product is bad as hell and they are in the most successful period of their history. 

The discussion about TV ratings is a bit tricky. I think it was Meltzer who calculated that AEW's current ratings are the equivalent of 1M viewers in 2019. People underestimate these things, or even other stuff like shows moving from network to cable tv. Look at SmackDown, since it moved from FOX to USA it averages almost 1M fewer viewers, and they're more popular than ever.

 

[zendragon]

11 hours ago, Stefanie Sparkleface said:

Oh, there's this too. It's just not a fun product to watch anymore. The world's grim enough, I don't need Jon Moxley and his neo-Nazi gimmick stomping around when there are real neo-Nazis marching on towns.

Give me back Alien Kris Statlander and push Willow Nightingale to the moon. That's all I ask.

Would you be more agree able to the current festivities if Mox and Marina Braun bust out a rousing rendition of "Springtime for Hitler"?

[Matt D]

They did lose their biggest ratings draw, who had beaten Reigns in a quarter hour, The Bunny.

[tbarrie]

Has The Bunny officially left the company? That's sad news.