2023 NFL OFFSEASON

[Kevin Wilson]

As an aside to the above news, I wonder who is in the market for Lamar with his assumed requirements? Not just the cost of the contract but losing the two picks. Atlanta apparently isn't interested, Saints got Carr. Rodgers may go to Jets, GB fine with Love. I assume Lamar doesn't want to go to a dumpster fire like the Texans nor do I know if they are interested (no offense to our Texans fans on here). That's a steep price for anyone, curious to see how it plays out. My money is he is back with the Ravens, possibly with a long term deal before training camp if he can't get what he wants anywhere else.

[RIPPA]

Another reason the GIants wanted to sign the apparent thumb in a helmet instead of tagging him

His reported tax hit this year will only be $19 million (that is roughly $13 million less than the tag)

Hence - the Giants, theoretically, free up money to sign 2-3 more players

[Kevin Wilson]

22 minutes ago, RIPPA said:

Another reason the GIants wanted to sign the apparent thumb in a helmet instead of tagging him

His reported tax hit this year will only be $19 million (that is roughly $13 million less than the tag)

Hence - the Giants, theoretically, free up money to sign 2-3 more players

I think the Giants did the right thing. I mean Daniel Jones had a higher QB Rating and QBR than Lamar last year, which take many different metrics into account instead of just overly focusing on the one that fits a certain narrative. Is he "worth" 40 mil a year? Probably not, but by Year 3 I bet his AVG over the course of the deal won't even be in the Top 15 (it is tied for 7th as of this second). QB prices are going to keep going up and up as the cap rises, I don't think they will overly regret it.

[NoFistsJustFlips]

QB prices are going up. Jones also charged The Giants a bit of an F-U tax for not believing in him and picking up that fifth year option. I am okay with all of this. What was the alternative? Draft a new QB at 26 in the draft? Tyrod Taylor? Pick up someone older and more injury prone to play worse than Jones will? I don't care how many touchdown passes he threw. He was a difference maker in the offense this year. Every decision shouldn't be based on stats. That Broncos Super Bowl win Peyton had he had statistically about the league worst numbers. They still won The super Bowl.

The Giants overachieved with the worst receivers group in the league. Let's see what they can do with an upgrade in talent there. (Note to Giants, please don't forget to upgrade the WR talent this off season).

Geno Smith was a backup for 7 years and had one good year and got a $50 million dollar salary. Would anyone here actually pick Geno over Daniel Jones at this point in their careers? Jones' average salary per year is actually less than Geno. And The Giants get to keep Barkley. This is a big win from my perspective.

[Cobra Commander]

SOURCE: Raiders haven't ruled out signing Philip Rivers for 2023

[supremebve]

54 minutes ago, NoFistsJustFlips said:

Geno Smith was a backup for 7 years and had one good year and got a $50 million dollar salary. Would anyone here actually pick Geno over Daniel Jones at this point in their careers? 

I really do not understand what you guys have been watching.  Can anyone give me one concrete reason why they believe that Daniel Jones is better than Geno Smith?

[elizium]

Both are shit but options are limited

[Kuetsar]

The devil you know, maybe dabol can get more improvement in the future, and I imagine a bunch of it is funny $$$ that will never come to pass.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Kuetsar

[NoFistsJustFlips]

Right. The way it's structured there's a ripcord after two years, in both cases. They are paying above what the tag is but taking less of a cap hit this way each of the first two years.

Daniel Jones is absolutely better than Geno Smith. In a similar situation in New York (with a worse coach but better receivers as a Giants QB) Geno tanked. Geno had a very good year this year. Geno also had Lockett. And DK. And Noah Fant. And Kenneth Walker. He had options. He had weapons. Yet The Seahawks won zero playoff games. The Giants won one.

It's not all about stats. Intangibles play a factor here. Jones isn't top tier by any means. But he's way under rated at least in this conversation. Give Jones DK & Lockett & Fant. Then let's see what those numbers say.

[Serious Darius Bagfelt]

13 hours ago, Kevin Wilson said:

Lamar has looked slightly worse every year since his MVP year and ended the last two years injured. I wouldn't want to give him a six year fully guaranteed contract for $50 mil+ a year either. (yes I made up that contract number but from various leaks I wouldn't be surprised if that ballpark what he wanted). The offense wasn't functional because they never invested in a real backup, we can assume if Lamar is gone they won't roll with Huntley (probably).

Either a team is going to go crazy with a contract and the Ravens get two first round draft picks they can use to trade up and get any QB they want for much cheaper, or they get Lamar for another year at $32 mil and he gets a chance to show off. Feels like a win-win, if Lamar is right he'll get his money, if the Ravens are right they'll play it back for another year.

Basically.  Lamar is getting to the point of his career where he is going to have to rely more on his arm than his legs and he hasn't shown elite level passing yet.  Hopefully Lamar and his people come down a bit in their demands and work something out because Baltimore is the ideal situation for him and they are going to find it is a very soft market for his services out there if a team has to dedicate in the neighbourhood of 20% of their cap for him.  Fully guaranteed. And cough up 2 first rounders. If he wants to play chicken he may wind up finding himself on a one year deal and getting hurt again this year then winding up signing a short term deal for even less money on a team like the Jets or Raiders and being turned into a human tackling dummy

[RIPPA]

Speaking of Lamar - the collusion train has left the station 

[Dolfan in NYC]

Now, let's all have a big bowl of strawberry ice cream!

[supremebve]

2 hours ago, RIPPA said:

Speaking of Lamar - the collusion train has left the station 

There was a bidding war for Deshaun Watson, who people didn't even know if he'd be able to play, but a former MVP, no one is interested.

[Tarheel Moneghetti]

I’d have to be a lot more naive to think that collusion isn’t at least possible, maybe even likely.  Probably even likely.  On the other hand, I can think of several legitimate reasons to pass on Lamar.  Negotiating with his agent-less self is said to be a pain in the ass.  There are questions about his durability.  There are questions about whether or not his asking price is realistic.  And there’s a fair chance that all that is really happening here is that the Ravens are letting someone else do the legwork to get a deal done.  I think Baltimore matches any deal he gets offered and keeps him.  I also think that, if he had an agent, a deal would already have been done without all this sturm und drang

i’m generally for people making as much as they can when they can, regardless of how much they were making before, but, when you’re talking the sort of salaries top qb’s make, I can understand the reluctance to guarantee all of it.  Let’s be honest here.  Lamar’s top priority here isn’t staying a Raven or getting a new deal that will bring his family generational wealth.  If that his was concern, he could go to the Ravens today, tell them he’ll take $100 or &120 million guaranteed for 3 years, and someone would write him out a contract on the spot before he changes his mind.  Boom.  You’ve just taken care of your family for the next several generations, at least,  and you still have your endorsement deals and the chance to sign a new long-term deal for even more before you’re 30.  Money isn’t going to stop raining from the sky just cause you signed a new contract.

What Lamar really wants is what Deshaun Watson got + $1 + the shiny new pony he never got as a kid.  If you can get it, that’s fine, but it’s hard to blame anyone for not giving it to you.  I mean, contract negotiations are usually give and take. I feel like that, when you’re up in this stratosphere, you probably should take a little less money if you want all/most of it guaranteed.  As someone on ESPN pointed out, no one blinks too much at guaranteeing Kirk Cousins’ contract because his contract, while hefty, isn’t in the same stratosphere.

i won’t be too surprised if Lamar tests the free agent market and actually gets a little less than what the Ravens offered (allegedly $240-$250 million with $130-$180 guaranteed.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Tarheel Moneghetti

[Log]

Was reading an article on ESPN re: ranking best fits for a Lamar trade. This line from it stuck out and made me think of the Daniel Jones discussion here:

"NFL contracts and trade value aren't about skill. They're about leverage."

[Dolfan in NYC]

Mike Pouncey is going to sign a one day contract and retire as a Miami Dolphin.  

[RIPPA]

Just to put a bow on the Daniel Jones contract

The reality is the contract is 3 years, $112.5 million (the average will be around $37.5 when included the bonuses he will definitely earn)

The Giants can get out of the deal after 2 years if they really needed to

And due to the money "saved" the Giants have started extension talks with Saquon Barkley and Dexter Lawrence (and will eat Kenny Galloday's contract this year instead of making it a post-June 1 cut. Thanks Gettleman)

[supremebve]

1 hour ago, Log said:

Was reading an article on ESPN re: ranking best fits for a Lamar trade. This line from it stuck out and made me think of the Daniel Jones discussion here:

"NFL contracts and trade value aren't about skill. They're about leverage."

This is true, but I feel like both the Lamar Jackson and the Daniel Jones situations are both terrible examples of how to deal with leverage.  The Ravens are willing to lose an irreplaceable asset, because they don't want to bow to his demands.  That's fine, if you could reasonably replace Lamar Jackson, which you cannot.  The Giants bowed to Daniel Jones' demands, but his production says he's easily replaceable.  The reason that you pay Lamar Jacson is because he's better than anyone you can get otherwise, but the reason you don't pay Daniel Jones is because you can find someone who can replicate his production for a much lower price.  If the Giants don't sign Daniel Jones, they could have gone after Derek Carr, Jimmy Garapalo, or any rookie and got a reasonable replacement for Daniel Jones for much less money.  Leverage only exists if the people you are negotiating with believe that you have leverage.  If I was negotiating with Lamar Jackson, I would pay him what he asked for, because I think having a happy Lamar Jackson gives me a better chance at winning than not having Lamar Jackson.  If I was negotiating with Daniel Jones, I'd listen to his demands and politely tell him that I'd be happy to give him a recommendation if he needs one for his new job.  I imagine it will go something like this...

Dear Burger King,

If you hire Daniel Jones to work your flame broiler, I can personally guarantee that he will do everything in his power to improve every single day.  The first year he works for you, he's going to show some promise, but he's also going to drop an astronomical number of burgers on the floor.  We actually called him in the office to examine his hands to make sure he had thumbs.  It turns out he does, and by year two he's going to drop about half as many burgers than he did the year before.  With that said, somehow his ability to produce burgers is also going to decline by about half.  That's OK though, the next year he's only going to decline by 1.  I think I should also give you a heads up, if you are the current manager, you are going to get fired.  But the next manager is going to really get the best out of Daniel.  He's going to improve his burger output, but he'll still produce fewer burgers than days he works.  Basically, what I'm saying is he's going to be a fairly terrible employee for about 3 years, but he's going to improve so much the 4th year, you'll talk yourself into keeping him around.  You probably shouldn't, but everyone around is going to talk you into giving him a large raise and staking your future on his success.  Wouldn't let that shit happen to me though.

[Tabe]

I dunno, you get a chance to pay big money for a guy who, as a starting quarterback, has had three straight years averaging less than 1 passing TD per game, I think you have to take it. Makes perfect sense to me. 

[NoFistsJustFlips]

I feel for Lamar, but I also don't. His talents and abilities more than warrant a huge price tag. But his stubborn ass acting as his own agent is truthfully what's hurting him here. He's compounding the collusion. The NFL absolutely does not want fully guaranteed contracts to be the norm. The NFL absolutely do no want athletes acting as their own agents to become the norm. No one is going to set both of those precedents at the same time.

That's what all the Twitter hot takes slamming Daniel Jones' deal in comparison are missing. Front offices have a lot of give and take with agents. We'll give you a little more here than we'd like but you're giving up a little leverage on the next client we're working with you on kind of thing. He wants to keep every penny and not pay out a percentage to an agent. He wants to keep every penny and have it all fully guaranteed. He wants a lot. And all together it's just too much.

I also think Dashawn looking like dog shit this year really soured any movement that had been made with the fully guaranteed deals. He looked badddddd. And I bet every GM went, well shit glad we didn't sign that guy to that deal. The Browns are fucked. And no one else wants to do that to themselves. Basically the sexual deviant and The Browns ruined it for the rest of the league.

[supremebve]

3 hours ago, Tabe said:

I dunno, you get a chance to pay big money for a guy who, as a starting quarterback, has had three straight years averaging less than 1 passing TD per game, I think you have to take it. Makes perfect sense to me. 

This reminds me of the most genius bit of comedy in the history of the NFL.  When Cris Carter got let go from the Eagles they asked Buddy Ryan why they cut him and he responded, "All he does is catch touchdowns."  It says so much about all the dumb ways we talk about football.  Somehow some way, we can figure out a way to discount someone accomplishing the exact goal everyone in the game is trying to accomplish.  There is no more valuable thing a football player can do than score touchdowns.  No matter what position you play, what your assignment is, how fast you are, how big you are, nothing, if you are on a football field, the best possible outcome is that you score a touchdown.  Why do you pay Lamar Jackson, because more than pretty much any player ever, he has the ability to score a touchdown on any given play.  

[Brian Fowler]

1 hour ago, supremebve said:

This reminds me of the most genius bit of comedy in the history of the NFL.  When Cris Carter got let go from the Eagles they asked Buddy Ryan why they cut him and he responded, "All he does is catch touchdowns." 

It's an infamous quote, but it was actually Buddy being nice and not telling the truth. As Carter admitted later, it was because of his drug problem, not his lack of production between the twenties.

[Kevin Wilson]

Just now, Brian Fowler said:

It's an infamous quote, but it was actually Buddy being nice and not telling the truth. As Carter admitted later, it was because of his drug problem, not his lack of production between the twenties.

Don't let the truth get in the way of the good time they are having.

I'd rather have Daniel Jones on a Daniel Jones-esque contract than Lamar at the contract he wants. Can't build a team when one player has 20% of the cap, can't do it. I could build around Jones, maybe get him a WR or two, build a defense. Mahomes can get away with being almost 20% of the cap because he is that damn good, Lamar isn't Mahomes and anyone still quoting Lamar's season in 2019 is in lala land and ignoring the last two years.

[Brian Fowler]

There's no way in hell I would want to make a two year commitment to Jones at that rate right now. It's why I would've tagged him and given him another year to prove it.

(I know that they wanted to save the tag for Barkley, but I'm also not that sure anchoring your season to a running back who averages 4.2 missed games per year is all that great of an idea.)

But I guess I'm somewhere between the "pay Jones' and supremebve opinions on Jones. I think he's with taking another look at in 2023, but not having him locked up for 2024 as well, with a potential huge cap hit to get rid of him if his interceptions and fumbles go back up and his touchdowns don't.

I'm not sure what his ceiling is, but I kinda suspect it's "more athletic Kirk Cousins"

[GuerrillaMonsoon]

I'd be happy with Lamar going to Carolina in the sense that he's not Aaron Rodgers, or anyone else's trash.

In the sense that I don't think he really suits our offence, maybe not. 

I have no idea who will start QB next season. I actually wouldn't mind Ryan Tannehill based on what he's done with a similar Tennessee offence.