2014 Summer Blockbuster Movie Pool

[Chaos]

Come on, Transformers! You can do so much worse. We need low '20s or high teens bad!

[Chaos]

Transformers is 165 minutes long. I feel sorry for the many Americans who will blow $50 at the movie theater after popcorn, drinks, etc to see it.

[Vincey Greene]

So with all the hype about Kim Jong Un being infuriated by The Interview, should that have been on the list? 

 

 

I would have seen it anyway, but now I'm gonna make it a point to see it in theaters because America. Surely I'm not the only one. I feel like that fat moron is doing better publicity work for that flick than any ad agency ever could.

[RIPPA]

Transformers has fallen to 26% on only 19 reviews

 

Meanwhile HTTYD2 has dropped back into a tie with X-Men at 92% - I am terrified how that tiebreaker will work out because those are some crucial crucial placements on my ballot

[S.K.o.S.]

The Interview doesn't come out until October, but if it had been released during the summer, Franco and Rogen would've pretty much made it an automatic inclusion.

 

For the RT list, X-Men is locked at 205/224 = 91.52%, and HTTYD2 is at 113/123 = 91.87%.  So HTTYD2 is still ahead of X-Men for now.

[Niners Fan in CT]

Funny.. I still feel like transformers looks more entertaining than ninja turtles..

[S.K.o.S.]

Transformers now at 17% RT on 43 reviews.  Yikes.

 

Also, HTTYD2 (barely) made more money yesterday than 22 Jump Street, so maybe the pendulum is starting to swing back in the other direction there?

[_MJ_]

Say what you want about Transformers but for this game it's old reliable.  One of the few movies you can count on when it comes to the critics. 

 

I can't believe Bay keeps getting away with making them over 2 and half hours though.  I don't think I'm much of a movie snob, but I couldn't believe I was actually yawning through some of the action scenes in the second one. The action scenes, I say.

[Casey]

It's already set to have a $100mil opening.

[RIPPA]

Sadly - I thought Marky Mark would at least get it into the low 30s

 

Come on Purge Anarchy get 10%

[Death From Above]

Well so much for the theory that critics tend to go easy on sequels I guess.

[RIPPA]

And it keeps falling - 18% now

 

And HTTYD2 is down to 91% - grr....

[Reed]

Shouldn't the dragon already be trained by now?

[J.T.]

Transformers has fallen to 26% on only 19 reviews

 

Meanwhile HTTYD2 has dropped back into a tie with X-Men at 92% - I am terrified how that tiebreaker will work out because those are some crucial crucial placements on my ballot

 

I will do my best this weekend to make Snowpiercer the number one film in the nation.

[S.K.o.S.]

UPDATE 8 OF 21 - through June 26

 

Standings

1 [- 1] hobo joe - 10 points (6/4, tiebreak n/a)
2 [- 2] Lacelle - 10 points (4/6, tiebreak n/a)
3 [- 3] The Erotic Terrorist - 12 points (10/2, tiebreak n/a)
4 [- 4] Suicide King of Spades - 12 points (8/4, tiebreak n/a)
5 [- 5] Chaos - 14 points (6/8, tiebreak 0.328)
6 [- 6] -MJ- - 14 points (6/8, tiebreak n/a)
7 [- 7] The Natural - 18 points (10/8, tiebreak n/a)
8 [- 8] Ligerbusa - 20 points (10/10, tiebreak n/a)
9 [- 9] The Z - 20 points (12/8, tiebreak 0.05)

10 [↑ 18] The Veeg - 22 points (16/6, tiebreak 0.557)
11 [↑ 13] Super Ape - 22 points (10/12, tiebreak n/a)
12 [↓ 10] Death From Above - 22 points (12/10, tiebreak n/a)
13 [↓ 11] DreamBroken - 22 points (16/6, tiebreak n/a)
14 [↓ 12] Paco - 22 points (14/8, tiebreak n/a)
15 [↑ 17] Hoffman - 22 points (8/14, tiebreak n/a)
16 [↑ 22] Control - 24 points (14/10, tiebreak 1.229)
17 [↓ 14] Rippa - 24 points (12/12, tiebreak n/a)
18 [↑ 19] Niners Fan in CT - 24 points (8/16, tiebreak n/a)
19 [↓ 15] Mike Zeidler - 24 points (16/8, tiebreak n/a)
20 [↓ 16] Kevin Wilson - 24 points (12/12, tiebreak n/a)
21 [- 21] pipGofern - 24 points (10/14, tiebreak n/a)
22 [↓ 20] The Damn Yeti - 26 points (14/12, tiebreak n/a)
23 [↑ 25] Dr. Bathroom - 28 points (12/16, tiebreak n/a)
24 [↓ 23] JRGoldman - 28 points (16/12, tiebreak n/a)
25 [↑ 27] caley - 28 points (8/20, tiebreak n/a)
26 [↓ 24] blitzkrieg - 28 points (14/14, tiebreak n/a)
27 [↑ 32] CSC - 28 points (12/16, tiebreak n/a)

28 [↓ 26] RossWB - 30 points (18/12, tiebreak 0.062)
29 [- 29] Cameron Swift - 30 points (12/18, tiebreak 0.145)
30 [↓ 28] jaedmc - 32 points (14/18, tiebreak 0.029)
31 [↑ 33] SorceressKnight - 34 points (16/18, tiebreak n/a)
32 [↓ 30] ivpvideos - 34 points (10/24, tiebreak n/a)
33 [↓ 31] Elsalvajeloco - 34 points (24/10, tiebreak n/a)
34 [↑ 35] Raziel403 - 38 points (18/20, tiebreak n/a)
35 [↓ 34] MushroomJones - 40 points (22/18, tiebreak n/a)
36 [↑ 37] Sublime - 40 points (14/26, tiebreak n/a)
37 [↓ 36] Ultimo The Great - 42 points (22/20, tiebreak 0.113)

 

Box office

1 [- 1] X-Men: Days of Future Past - $210,594,250 (28 days)

2 [↑ 4] Maleficent - $193,615,390 (28 days)

3 [↓ 2] The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $188,957,297 (28 days)

4 [↓ 3] Godzilla - $188,144,600 (28 days)

5 [- 5] Neighbors - $132,600,495 (28 days)

6 [- 6] 22 Jump Street - $124,436,892 (14 days)

7 [- 7] How To Train Your Dragon 2 - $108,714,532 (14 days)

8 [- 8] Edge Of Tomorrow - $78,942,472 (21 days)

9 [- 9] A Million Ways To Die In The West - $41,158,955 (28 days)

 

Rotten Tomatoes

1 [- 1] How To Train Your Dragon 2 - 114/124 = 92% (14 days)

2 [- 2] X-Men: Days of Future Past - 205/224 = 92% (28 days)

3 [- 3] Edge Of Tomorrow - 209/232 = 90% (21 days)

4 [- 4] 22 Jump Street - 156/184 = 85% (14 days)

5 [- 5] Godzilla - 180/246 = 73% (28 days)

6 [- 6] Neighbors - 141/193 = 73% (28 days)

7 [- 7] The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - 133/250 = 53% (28 days)

8 [- 8] Maleficent - 91/182 = 50% (28 days)

9 [- 9] A Million Ways To Die In The West - 59/180 = 33% (28 days)

[jaedmc]

THIS GAME IS DUMB.

[Control]

But look how accurate your tiebreaker is!

[Niners Fan in CT]

How the FUCK did I believe the Purge and Hercules would be ranked lower than Transformers? Gah

[_MJ_]

I think I just realize I don't understand the percentage points for the tiebreak.  Haha.

 

Dead at Lacelle in second place after we were giving her shit about her list earlier on.

 

I don't get how The Erotic Terrorist only has 2 points on his Rotten Tomato list after 8 weeks.  Nice work.

[S.K.o.S.]

I think I just realize I don't understand the percentage points for the tiebreak.  Haha.

 

Dead at Lacelle in second place after we were giving her shit about her list earlier on.

 

I don't get how The Erotic Terrorist only has 2 points on his Rotten Tomato list after 8 weeks.  Bizarre.

 

The tiebreak is basically the percentage your prediction was off by.  A lower number is better.  If the movie you used as a tiebreak hasn't come out yet, it shows as "n/a". For example, Maleficent finished at $193,615,390, Jae predicted it'd be $188,000,000, he's off by just 2.9% (which shows as 0.029).

 

Explanation about Erotic Terrorist's RT list in the spoiler.  Spoiled for length.

 

His list was:

 

How to Train Your Dragon 2

X-Men: Days of Future Past

Godzilla

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

22 Jump Street

Guardians of the Galaxy

Maleficent

The Expendables 3

The Giver

A Million Ways To Die In The West

Jupiter Ascending

Hercules

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Transformers: Age of Extinction

The Purge: Anarchy

 

Delete the movies that haven't come out yet, and you get:

 

How to Train Your Dragon 2

X-Men: Days of Future Past

Godzilla

22 Jump Street

Maleficent

A Million Ways To Die In The West

 

Which is almost right on, he's just got Godzilla and 22 Jump Street switched.  1 point for each of those = 2 points.

 

If you look back at his overall list, it looks pretty good long term too.  Maleficent is fairly high but I could legitimately see all those movies below it getting less than 50%.

[Swift]

I always get confused looking at these, because I always think I should be doing better. So, for once, I actually did the calculations for myself. And, of course, you're spot on. At least, now I have a better idea of how the points actually work.

 

I will say though, and I'm tanking myself a little here, if it's the lower tiebreak percentage that's better, RossWB should be ahead of me.

[Brian Fowler]

So, Transformers did 8.75 yesterday.

 

In the same ballpark as Amazing Spider-Man 2, X-Men: DOFP, and Godzilla.  All of which opened around 90 million bucks.

 

Which is to say, this is probably going to open right around 90 million.  And if the summer so far is any indication, end up somewhere around 200 million for the purposes of this game, and 225-250 or so total.  Less if it ends up more like Spidey and the Big G than Cap and the X-Men.

 

This summer looks highly likely to lack any major, major breakout hits. 

[S.K.o.S.]

I will say though, and I'm tanking myself a little here, if it's the lower tiebreak percentage that's better, RossWB should be ahead of me.

 

You're right.  The Veeg should be ahead of Super Ape, too.

 

I have this stuff in a spreadsheet on my work computer so I'll have to see on Monday what's happening there.  I think I'm probably inadvertently sorting by order of entry rather than the tiebreaker.

[S.K.o.S.]

So, Transformers did 8.75 yesterday.

 

In the same ballpark as Amazing Spider-Man 2, X-Men: DOFP, and Godzilla.  All of which opened around 90 million bucks.

 

Which is to say, this is probably going to open right around 90 million.  And if the summer so far is any indication, end up somewhere around 200 million for the purposes of this game, and 225-250 or so total.  Less if it ends up more like Spidey and the Big G than Cap and the X-Men.

 

This summer looks highly likely to lack any major, major breakout hits. 

 

HTTYD2's box office performance is still the most inexplicable thing for me this year.  Like I wouldn't have predicted this for ASM2 and Transformers 4, but it's at least understandable.

 

But yeah, if Transformers 4 doesn't do well (by Transformers standards), then there isn't much else.  I'm guessing not many people seriously think Guardians is going to move the needle too much.

[Niners Fan in CT]

I can't blame anyone who says fuck the movies these days. Last movie I went to with some friends it cost me $9 for a drink and junior mints. Imagine bringing a family.