2014 Summer Blockbuster Movie Pool

[_MJ_]

Wow.   Dawn of the Apes is at 92 percent on RT right now.

I thought it might be a wild card in this game because it was sequel yet I had not heard too much about it.  I don't know what to expect from it box office wise either.  It should win this weekend since it's not really going against any new box office heavyweights.

[S.K.o.S.]

UPDATE 10 OF 21 - through July 10

 

Standings

1 [- 1] hobo joe - 12 points (8/4, tiebreak n/a)
2 [- 2] Lacelle - 12 points (6/6, tiebreak n/a)
3 [↑ 4] The Erotic Terrorist - 14 points (12/2, tiebreak n/a)
4 [↓ 3] Suicide King of Spades - 16 points (12/4, tiebreak 0.851)
5 [- 5] -MJ- - 16 points (8/8, tiebreak n/a)
6 [- 6] Chaos - 18 points (10/8, tiebreak 0.328)
7 [- 7] The Z - 20 points (12/8, tiebreak 0.05)
8 [↑ 12] The Veeg - 20 points (14/6, tiebreak 0.599)
9 [- 9] Paco - 20 points (12/8, tiebreak n/a)
10 [↓ 8] The Natural - 22 points (14/8, tiebreak n/a)
11 [↑ 13] DreamBroken - 22 points (16/6, tiebreak n/a)
12 [↓ 11] Niners Fan in CT - 24 points (8/16, tiebreak 0.127)
13 [↑ 14] Super Ape - 24 points (12/12, tiebreak 0.818)
14 [↓ 10] Ligerbusa - 24 points (14/10, tiebreak n/a)
15 [↑ 20] Control - 26 points (16/10, tiebreak 0.657)
16 [↑ 18] Kevin Wilson - 28 points (16/12, tiebreak 0.46)
17 [↑ 19] Rippa - 28 points (16/12, tiebreak n/a)
18 [↓ 15] pipGofern - 28 points (14/14, tiebreak n/a)
19 [↑ 22] Dr. Bathroom - 30 points (14/16, tiebreak n/a)
20 [↑ 23] JRGoldman - 30 points (18/12, tiebreak n/a)
21 [↓ 17] caley - 32 points (12/20, tiebreak 0.039)
22 [↑ 28] RossWB - 32 points (20/12, tiebreak 0.062)
23 [↓ 16] Cameron Swift - 32 points (14/18, tiebreak 0.145)
24 [↓ 21] Death From Above - 32 points (16/16, tiebreak n/a)
25 [- 25] The Damn Yeti - 32 points (18/14, tiebreak n/a)
26 [↓ 24] Mike Zeidler - 32 points (18/14, tiebreak n/a)
27 [↓ 26] Hoffman - 32 points (12/20, tiebreak n/a)
28 [↑ 31] CSC - 34 points (18/16, tiebreak n/a)
29 [↓ 27] jaedmc - 36 points (18/18, tiebreak 0.029)
30 [↓ 29] blitzkrieg - 36 points (20/16, tiebreak n/a)
31 [↓ 30] Elsalvajeloco - 36 points (26/10, tiebreak n/a)
32 [↑ 33] Raziel403 - 38 points (18/20, tiebreak n/a)
33 [↓ 32] ivpvideos - 40 points (14/26, tiebreak n/a)
34 [↑ 35] MushroomJones - 42 points (24/18, tiebreak n/a)
35 [↓ 34] SorceressKnight - 42 points (20/22, tiebreak n/a)
36 [- 36] Ultimo The Great - 44 points (24/20, tiebreak 0.197)
37 [- 37] Sublime - 48 points (18/30, tiebreak n/a)

 

Box office

1 [- 1] X-Men: Days of Future Past - $210,594,250 (28 days)

2 [- 2] Maleficent - $193,615,390 (28 days)

3 [↑ 6] Transformers: Age of Extinction - $192,531,298 (14 days)

4 [↓ 3] The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $188,957,297 (28 days)

5 [↓ 4] Godzilla - $188,144,600 (28 days)

6 [↓ 5] 22 Jump Street - $165,261,139 (28 days)

7 [↑ 8] How To Train Your Dragon 2 - $146,203,361 (28 days)

8 [↓ 7] Neighbors - $132,600,495 (28 days)

9 [- 9] Edge Of Tomorrow - $87,227,625 (28 days)

10 [- 10] A Million Ways To Die In The West - $41,158,955 (28 days)

 

Rotten Tomatoes

1 [- 1] How To Train Your Dragon 2 - 132/143 = 92% (28 days)

2 [- 2] X-Men: Days of Future Past - 205/224 = 92% (28 days)

3 [- 3] Edge Of Tomorrow - 211/235 = 90% (28 days)

4 [- 4] 22 Jump Street - 161/190 = 85% (28 days)

5 [- 5] Godzilla - 180/246 = 73% (28 days)

6 [- 6] Neighbors - 141/193 = 73% (28 days)

7 [- 7] The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - 133/250 = 53% (28 days)

8 [- 8] Maleficent - 91/182 = 50% (28 days)

9 [- 9] A Million Ways To Die In The West - 59/180 = 33% (28 days)

10 [- 10] Transformers: Age of Extinction - 27/155 = 17% (14 days)

[_MJ_]

You think Transformers is going to catch X-Men?

 

How to Train The Dragon 2 box office is so damn weird.

[S.K.o.S.]

Yeah, it should.  X-Men was only at $174 million after 14 days.  But clearly my $350 million tiebreaker prediction for Transformers will be more than a little off.

 

For HTTYD2, after Fowler's post, I tried to look around online to see if there were any good theories about its box office performance.  Apparently there's a tv show based on the franchise that started up a couple of years ago, and some people think the existence of the tv show may have made the movie seem less special.  Or maybe when you're aiming a movie at young children, 4 years is pretty much forever to a kid, and it's too long of a wait to capitalize on the first one's performance (but there are probably examples of animated sequels that had huge waiting times and still did very well).  I dunno.

[Ligerbusa]

Fuck this summer.

[Kevin Wilson]

The math is way too complicated for me to figure out if I have any chance of moving up much more, I am just happy to not be at the bottom.

[The Erotic Terrorist]

The tiebreak is basically the percentage your prediction was off by.  A lower number is better.  If the movie you used as a tiebreak hasn't come out yet, it shows as "n/a". For example, Maleficent finished at $193,615,390, Jae predicted it'd be $188,000,000, he's off by just 2.9% (which shows as 0.029).

 

Explanation about Erotic Terrorist's RT list in the spoiler.  Spoiled for length.

 

Thanks for the explanation. I've been quite lucky with that list so far.

 

Partly why I didn't participate in this contest is that I cannot even begin to fathom a population that are flocking to see a transformers sequel in their droves. Like, I can't even start to guess what would be a box office hit or not, because that fact alone throws everything out of balance.

 

Those movies are not for me personally. But, I figured it'd be a huge success given the other three in the franchise and even if it wasn't that, there were various people who also predicted such a thing.

 

This is why we pretty much only go to the drive in to see a movie these days.  $7/person for a double feature and we'll stop somewhere and pick up a full meal to eat in the car during the first movie and then snacks for the 2nd.  They even upgraded to digital projectors in the last couple years so it looks fairly descent.  Plus you don't have to sit in a theater with a bunch of annoying people trying not to focus on the noise they're making.

 

There are various drive ins around Florida and they run more often than just the summer. If I lived closer to one I would go there more often than just once in awhile. Digital projectors do make the picture look a hell of a lot better.

 

Speaking of zeitgeist, I think it's funny how quickly the moviegoing audience's interests can change from year to year.

Last year, horror was the MVP of the spring/summer season, with EVIL DEAD, THE PURGE, and THE CONJURING all opening #1 and picking up the slack while a lot of high-dollar blockbuster fare was disappointing. This year, horror seems to be a dud, and I doubt even the Purge insta-sequel is going to change that.

 

I have heard other people say that they believe it is how the high profile horror films of the past few years have all seemed to have similar plots of possessions or hauntings, and sometimes both. Maybe audience fatigue is a reason. I know that personally I would love to see a better variety and some fresher ideas.

 

Wow.   Dawn of the Apes is at 92 percent on RT right now.

I thought it might be a wild card in this game because it was sequel yet I had not heard too much about it.  I don't know what to expect from it box office wise either.  It should win this weekend since it's not really going against any new box office heavyweights.

 

Looking back at Rise, I had a feeling its sequel would do well and ranking it at 4 on RT and 5 at box office were good guesses. I know I shouldn't whine with how I am doing so far, but I am also surprised that HTTYD 2 isn't doing better as I did the same thing Fowler did and I just presumed it'd do huge. I know many here assumed similar thoughts so it isn't as bad but I wish I had Transformers at number 1. But really, I am doing better than expected as of now so again, I shouldn't complain.

[RIPPA]

Apes Dawn opened to the tune of $73 million

 

And since Transformers is currently at $209 million - for our purposes we will have a new box office leader soon.

 

The other thing that is so weird about Dragon 2 is that it has finished behind 22 Jump Street every single week it has been out. The last two weeks have been just less than a million separating them. You would have thought that after 5 weeks -  everyone who was going to see 22 would have seen it by now.

[Brian Fowler]

Funny enough, it just started playing at my closest theater this week.

 

Ah, Clare, home of one of the vanishingly rare single screen theaters.  (They did have Transformers 4 for opening week, and held it a second week...)

[RIPPA]

The Purge is starting at 51%

 

So those of us who tried the strategy of using shitty movies at the back end of your list - this is good news

[J.T.]

I thought this was going to be a quiet weekend but Sex Tape and the new Purge joint should make some money.

 

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes should still repeat at number one, though.  I don't see Sex Tape being the Forgetting Sarah Marshall of the summer and smashing the box office this weekend.

[S.K.o.S.]

UPDATE 11 OF 21 - through July 17

 

Standings

1 [↑ 4] Suicide King of Spades - 12 points (8/4, tiebreak 0.641)

2 [↓ 1] hobo joe - 12 points (8/4, tiebreak n/a)

3 [↓ 2] Lacelle - 16 points (6/10, tiebreak n/a)

4 [↑ 6] Chaos - 20 points (10/10, tiebreak 0.328)

5 [↓ 3] The Erotic Terrorist - 20 points (16/4, tiebreak n/a)

6 [↑ 7] The Z - 24 points (14/10, tiebreak 0.05)

7 [↑ 8] The Veeg - 24 points (16/8, tiebreak 0.599)

8 [↑ 10] The Natural - 24 points (14/10, tiebreak n/a)

9 [↑ 11] DreamBroken - 24 points (14/10, tiebreak n/a)

10 [↓ 5] -MJ- - 24 points (12/12, tiebreak n/a)

11 [↑ 15] Control - 26 points (14/12, tiebreak 0.657)

12 [↑ 14] Ligerbusa - 26 points (14/12, tiebreak n/a)

13 [↑ 17] Rippa - 26 points (12/14, tiebreak n/a)

14 [↓ 12] Niners Fan in CT - 28 points (8/20, tiebreak 0.001)

15 [↓ 9] Paco - 28 points (16/12, tiebreak n/a)

16 [↑ 18] pipGofern - 28 points (12/16, tiebreak n/a)

17 [↓ 13] Super Ape - 30 points (8/22, tiebreak 0.612)

18 [↑ 23] Cameron Swift - 32 points (14/18, tiebreak 0.145)

19 [↑ 20] JRGoldman - 32 points (18/14, tiebreak n/a)

20 [↓ 16] Kevin Wilson - 34 points (18/16, tiebreak 0.294)

21 [↑ 24] Death From Above - 34 points (16/18, tiebreak n/a)

22 [↓ 19] Dr. Bathroom - 34 points (14/20, tiebreak n/a)

23 [↑ 25] The Damn Yeti - 34 points (16/18, tiebreak n/a)

24 [↑ 26] Mike Zeidler - 34 points (18/16, tiebreak n/a)

25 [↑ 27] Hoffman - 34 points (10/24, tiebreak n/a)

26 [↓ 21] caley - 36 points (16/20, tiebreak 0.148)

27 [↑ 28] CSC - 36 points (16/20, tiebreak n/a)

28 [↓ 22] RossWB - 38 points (22/16, tiebreak 0.062)

29 [↑ 30] blitzkrieg - 38 points (18/20, tiebreak n/a)

30 [↓ 29] jaedmc - 40 points (18/22, tiebreak 0.029)

31 [↑ 35] SorceressKnight - 40 points (18/22, tiebreak n/a)

32 [↓ 31] Elsalvajeloco - 42 points (30/12, tiebreak 0.784)

33 [- 33] ivpvideos - 44 points (14/30, tiebreak n/a)

34 [- 34] MushroomJones - 48 points (24/24, tiebreak n/a)

35 [↓ 32] Raziel403 - 48 points (24/24, tiebreak n/a)

36 [- 36] Ultimo The Great - 52 points (30/22, tiebreak 0.197)

37 [- 37] Sublime - 58 points (22/36, tiebreak n/a)

 

Box office

1 [↑ 3] Transformers: Age of Extinction - $217,156,888 (21 days)

2 [↓ 1] X-Men: Days of Future Past - $210,594,250 (28 days)

3 [↓ 2] Maleficent - $193,615,390 (28 days)

4 [- 4] The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $188,957,297 (28 days)

5 [- 5] Godzilla - $188,144,600 (28 days)

6 [- 6] 22 Jump Street - $165,261,139 (28 days)

7 [- 7] How To Train Your Dragon 2 - $146,203,361 (28 days)

8 [- 8] Neighbors - $132,600,495 (28 days)

9 [NEW] Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - $102,952,844 (7 days)

10 [↓ 9] Edge Of Tomorrow - $87,227,625 (28 days)

11 [↓ 10] A Million Ways To Die In The West - $41,158,955 (28 days)

 

Rotten Tomatoes

1 [- 1] How To Train Your Dragon 2 - 132/143 = 92% (28 days)

2 [- 2] X-Men: Days of Future Past - 205/224 = 92% (28 days)

3 [NEW] Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - 170/187 = 91% (7 days)

4 [↓ 3] Edge Of Tomorrow - 211/235 = 90% (28 days)

5 [↓ 4] 22 Jump Street - 161/190 = 85% (28 days)

6 [↓ 5] Godzilla - 180/246 = 73% (28 days)

7 [↓ 6] Neighbors - 141/193 = 73% (28 days)

8 [↓ 7] The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - 133/250 = 53% (28 days)

9 [↓ 8] Maleficent - 91/182 = 50% (28 days)

10 [↓ 9] A Million Ways To Die In The West - 59/180 = 33% (28 days)

11 [↓ 10] Transformers: Age of Extinction - 28/163 = 17% (21 days)

[S.K.o.S.]

Wellllll that's embarrassing.  I left Apes off both my lists, so that's probably why I jumped to #1.

[RIPPA]

The Purge is starting at 51%

 

So those of us who tried the strategy of using shitty movies at the back end of your list - this is good news

 

Of course - it has gone up to 56% so so much for that

[S.K.o.S.]

Pretty rare for a horror sequel to do better critically than the original.

 

I put it second last on my RT list, behind Transformers 4, so I will not be long for the top spot.

[Niners Fan in CT]

I got my tiebreaker exactly right! except for the whole seven days to go thing.. 

[RIPPA]

Yup - I would imagine the Purge being right down the middle average eliminates any hope I had of sneaking into the Top 10

[The Z]

Oh no, Hercules seems to be halfway decent. It's currently at 67% with 12 reviews in so far.

This will screw me badly, since I banked everything into it being terrible and placed it at #15 on my RT list, even beneath Transformers and TMNT.

 

I never should have doubted The Rock.

[hobo joe]

Oh no, Hercules seems to be halfway decent. It's currently at 67% with 12 reviews in so far.

This will screw me badly, since I banked everything into it being terrible and placed it at #15 on my RT list, even beneath Transformers and TMNT.

 

I never should have doubted The Rock.

 

FUCK

[Niners Fan in CT]

How the fuck is that pile of garbage (which I haven't seen) receiving positive reviews? Between that and people not hating The Purge I am so fucking fucked

[Death From Above]

Honestly I watched a trailer for it before I put my list together and I thought it was comically ridiculous that on DVDVR of all places there were people predicting that to be the worst movie of the summer given what the competition was.

[Chaos]

Ranking Purge and Hercules below Million Ways to Die in the West on RT may be what finishes me.

 

Also, I have no idea why I ranked Guardians of the Galaxy 3rd in RT ratings. I probably should have gone more mid-table there.

[S.K.o.S.]

Also, I have no idea why I ranked Guardians of the Galaxy 3rd in RT ratings. I probably should have gone more mid-table there.

 

It's inexplicably at 100% right now with 10 reviews.

[The Z]

 

Also, I have no idea why I ranked Guardians of the Galaxy 3rd in RT ratings. I probably should have gone more mid-table there.

 

It's inexplicably at 100% right now with 10 reviews.

 

 

Damn! I really wanted to put it at #1 on both lists, but then I wussed out and put it somewhere in the middle.

Should have trusted my instincts.

[Niners Fan in CT]

10 reviews is a small sample size though. ASM2 was at like 89% for a while and then it went down the shitter