AEW/ROH Finances, Ratings, etc.

[Technico Support]

It's weird to me that All In weekend came and went without an announcement on the TV deal.

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

Getting caught up on my reading from the weekend, and if I didn't think that WBD was a bad TV partner before, I sure do now.

https://deadline.com/2024/08/nba-says-warner-bros-discovery-lack-cash-tv-rights-lawsuit-1236049637/

Relevant quote from the article: 

Quote

In a late night motion for dismissal to be argued in person in New York state court on October 4, just under three weeks before the 79th NBA regular season tip offs, the NBA made it clear it is not playing games. To put it simply, the gist of the league’s argument is: Sorry WBD, but you’re just not big enough for the NBA, and it looks like you don’t have the cash.

“For example, to ensure the financial security of billions of dollars of rights fee payments over the deal’s 11-year term, Amazon agreed, inter alia, to maintain an escrow account from which rights fees will automatically be paid to the NBA as they become due,” the supporting memorandum of law from the league’s Sullivan & Cromwell lawyers reads. “TBS eliminated this protection by giving itself the option to instead provide the NBA with syndicated letters of credit that the NBA can access only if TBS’s payments are late. That is not even close to the same thing.”

That, um... doesn't instill confidence. If WBD is running out of liquid assets to the point where they can't put payments in escrow and are trying to score rights deals on credit, then their situation may be way worse than it seemed.

[blitzkrieg]

On 8/26/2024 at 8:26 PM, Stefanie Sparkleface said:

That, um... doesn't instill confidence. If WBD is running out of liquid assets to the point where they can't put payments in escrow and are trying to score rights deals on credit, then their situation may be way worse than it seemed.

Yes but they're getting quality programming now by poaching shows from modern-day CW. 

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

Read this article this morning on Business Insider, realized it was paywalled, and found it mirrored elsewhere so I could share it.

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/money/companies/cable-tv-s-collapse-deepens-it-is-becoming-increasingly-clear-that-there-is-no-longer-any-floor/ar-AA1pVse7

The pay-TV industry as a whole lost 1.6 million subscribers in Q2 2024. Q2s are bad for the industry (the article points out the loss of 1.8 million in Q2 2022 and 1.7 million in Q2 2023), but it continues the trend of cable/satellite and even companies like YouTube TV and Hulu Live TV dipping.

Considering the fight that DirecTV and Disney are having as well over their carriage issues (long story short, DirecTV thinks Disney is upcharging for traditional carriage to price them out of the market while advertising their services as the cheaper option, and since Disney owns Hulu they're not entirely wrong), and companies like Echostar (who owns Dish) now talking about potential bankruptcy/asset sales, it's awfully choppy seas out there. Find a lifeboat.

[twiztor]

6 hours ago, Stefanie Sparkleface said:

it's awfully choppy seas out there. Find a lifeboat.

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

2 hours ago, twiztor said:

snip

I mean, if you're a content consumer, sure. If you're a content creator, not really.

[The Natural]

F4wonline.com c&p:

Several updates are available regarding a new AEW media rights deal with Warner Bros. Discovery.

John Ourand of Puck News published a report yesterday, stating that a formal announcement of the long-awaited deal could come as soon as next week, barring any last-minute changes.

Key figures of the deal according to Ourand’s report include:

• New AEW-WBD media rights agreement will be four years (three years guaranteed plus an option)
• $170 million is “in the ballpark” of what AEW will receive annually.
• AEW programming will air on TNT, TBS, and TruTV twice a week.
• This is part of a WBD strategy to make TBS and TruTV more sports-oriented.
• There was no mention of AEW pay-per-views airing on MAX in the report.
• AEW is also pitching a package to broadcast channels.

“This deal marks a clear success for AEW, which launched five years ago with a threshold WBD deal,” Ourand wrote.

Our own Dave Meltzer and Bryan Alvarez discussed Ourand’s report on today’s episode of Wrestling Observer Radio, with Meltzer noting a key part of the deal will be whether AEW’s pay-per-views are included in what WBD receives for the $170 million paid annually.

“If it’s $170 million not including the pay-per-views, that’s one number. If that includes the pay-per-views, it’s not as big of an increase, it’s not really technically a (doubling of the rights fees they’d received previously), but it would be a substantial increase,” Meltzer said on the show.

Another potential source of revenue growth for AEW, Meltzer continued, is in international media rights agreements, particulary on stations and in countries where WWE’s programming will be moving to Netflix.

“When it comes to the international days, next year opens up a lot of content, only because WWE will be getting out all of those international deals: Canada, UK, India, everywhere, Australia, Phillipines, whatever country. International TV is not a giant number, it’s not a big number for AEW, it can grow bigger. The WWE deal in India and the UK are both substantial numbers,” he continued.

According to the numbers in Ourand’s report, the new media rights agreement will make AEW the most profitable company in the history of wrestling other than WWE.

“As far as next year 2025, (AEW) would be the largest grossing pro-wrestling company in history other than WWE, and it would actually be larger than WWE was until the Austin era. Inflation makes that sort of a misleading statement but as far as profitability goes, it would be the most profitable company that there has ever been in pro wrestling except for WWE,” Meltzer continued.

Edited September 17 by The Natural

[Kevin Wilson]

That is overall very good for AEW with a few points - it doesn't say who has the option for the 4th year (not picking it up could benefit either of them depending on how AEW does but it matters if both have to agree to opt out or only one does), and of course if PPVs are included in that price would impact the evaluation. Still, sounds like we are close to this chapter finally closing.

AEW getting a broadcast deal on the side would definitely benefit them, even if its a recap show on late or something. Anything that extends their reach.

[Casey]

I don’t usually concern myself with TV ratings but AEW got absolutely obliterated last night. Some combination of moving nights, an hour later than usual, and NXT now being on OTA television made them average 329k last night. The worst viewership they’ve ever had for Dynamite.

I’m pretty positive it’ll bounce back next week + knowing how people watch TV these days with DVR being a thing, I’m not worried. But that’s a terrible number, especially when this same time last year is when they went head to head against NXT, both sides loaded up their shows, and AEW still got something like 600k+ and TK still flipped his shit (bald assholes tweet).

[Curt McGirt]

I didn't know it was on last night until I caught it surfing the guide. That might've been an issue. 

[EVA]

They definitely didn’t promote it well.

Of course, they don’t promote anything particularly well.

[Kevin Wilson]

I am curious when RAW goes to Netflix if it impacts AEW's ratings. It won't hurt it, but I'm not sure if it will help or have no impact. I still think if I was WBD I'd be real tempted to put an AEW show on Monday (maybe move Collison there, how much worse could it do than it does on saturdays?) to capture the wrestling fans programmed to watch wrestling Monday nights but don't have Netflix. Either way, AEW needs to find a 'hot act' and unfortunately for them you can't usually force that, it happens naturally and by luck most of the time (like what happened with Hendry). At least with the new TV deal they have some time to hopefully learn how to promote and use the fact they will actually be profitable to make other improvements.

[username]

5 hours ago, Casey said:

I don’t usually concern myself with TV ratings but AEW got absolutely obliterated last night. Some combination of moving nights, an hour later than usual, and NXT now being on OTA television made them average 329k last night. The worst viewership they’ve ever had for Dynamite.

My theory has been that it's not that AEW is losing fans in large numbers, but the existing fans used to be diehards who would watch AEW over anything else and for the most part this is no longer true. Blame it on more shows or a cooled down product I'll leave that to others, but whenever another option is made available nowadays a large portion of AEW fans take it.

[odessasteps]

Don’t forget the baseball playoffs and people watching the Weather Channel for Hurrican news. 

Edited Thursday at 03:25 AM by odessasteps

[username]

7 minutes ago, odessasteps said:

Don’t forget the baseball playoffs and people watching the Weather Channel for Hurrican news. 

This is true but also... NXT wasn't down at all really.

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

8 minutes ago, odessasteps said:

Don’t forget the baseball playoffs and people watching the Weather Channel for Hurrican news. 

Plus a win or go home game in the WNBA playoffs to determine who goes to the finals, NHL's opening day... there were a lot of options out there.

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

13 minutes ago, username said:

My theory has been that it's not that AEW is losing fans in large numbers, but the existing fans used to be diehards who would watch AEW over anything else and for the most part this is no longer true. Blame it on more shows or a cooled down product I'll leave that to others, but whenever another option is made available nowadays a large portion of AEW fans take it.

 

3 minutes ago, username said:

This is true but also... NXT wasn't down at all really.

So I used to watch Dynamite as appointment viewing but that ended a couple of years ago. Now I'll watch if it looks like a show I want to see, but for the most part, I watch after the fact at my own pace or read a summary. Where NXT has a benefit is a very staunch built in audience that is very brand loyal to WWE and will watch practically anything with a WWE logo on it ahead of anything else. That's the benefit of WWE being around as long as they have, they have their locked in audience that'll watch live as long as they remain interested. The casuals/non-diehards are going to catch up via YouTube, short videos on social media, and their DVR, but they just have a huge base to pull from.

[Curt McGirt]

I'm gonna say the only thing I probably can in this thread that's relevant aside from "SHUT UP", and that's: wrestling goes in cycles. It has upswings and downswings. And yet, it never goes away. 

[odessasteps]

Hopefully, once the main show is on cable and streaming at the same time, ratings talk will be irrelevant. But given the cottage industry around it, I doubt that will happen. 

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

8 hours ago, Curt McGirt said:

I'm gonna say the only thing I probably can in this thread that's relevant aside from "SHUT UP", and that's: wrestling goes in cycles. It has upswings and downswings. And yet, it never goes away. 

This thread exists for a reason, so people who don't want to see the business/ratings talk don't have to. If you don't like it that much, ignore it or mark it as read.

8 hours ago, odessasteps said:

Hopefully, once the main show is on cable and streaming at the same time, ratings talk will be irrelevant. But given the cottage industry around it, I doubt that will happen. 

People will just invent a new thing to doom and gloom about. Most of the people who sowed discontent about WWE's ratings and how they were on the verge of being cancelled instead have moved on to AEW's ratings, and nobody thinks about the alternate methods of viewership. Whenever I see a low rating, I just figure there were other reasons and I'd want to see the DVR numbers before worrying (especially on a busy TV night like Tuesday was), but oh wait, nobody reports those.

[NikoBaltimore]

9 hours ago, username said:

My theory has been that it's not that AEW is losing fans in large numbers, but the existing fans used to be diehards who would watch AEW over anything else and for the most part this is no longer true. Blame it on more shows or a cooled down product I'll leave that to others, but whenever another option is made available nowadays a large portion of AEW fans take it.

I don't know how much this gets brought up but post-Vince WWE has gotten so freaking good that it wouldn't surprise me if a percentage of AEW fans have either went back to watching WWE or (at least in my case) juggled between both companies with only so much time to spare.  There's nothing wrong about that at all but that isn't a reason I would discount.

I don't post in here much so I'll just give my two cents on AEW in general.  I will admit it is concerning that in the past five years there hasn't really been growth from the million average they initially had and it sucks it's gone in reverse.  If I were to guess it was around when Rampage started up and it got worse with Collision.  Before that it was Dynamite and Dark/Elevation with the YT shows being non-essential but wonderful viewing.  For a still growing company if it had just that going on it might have eventually had them in good enough shape to do Collision without hurting creative focus.  But WBD and TK wanted Rampage and Collision which I feel were way too soon.  Yes, there's another reason why those shows existed but I'm not getting into that.  But as much as I love Rampage I can live without the show and hopefully it's addition by subtraction.

With the deal in place there should hopefully be less creative pressure so maybe TK will finally ease up on the reigns a bit.  I believe initially in AEW booking got split up to a degree and it's time to get back to that.  I mean he even books ROH which should really be booked by Daniels or somebody and left in its own silo.  If he were to have somebody book Collision by themself then he could book just Dynamite and touch base with the other bookers once in a while.  There'd be no shame in him doing that and it would only help AEW.

[The Natural]

329,000 viewers for AEW Dynamite. I had to do a double check as I thought I'd read it wrong. Fuck.

[Curt McGirt]

2 hours ago, Stefanie Sparkleface said:

This thread exists for a reason, so people who don't want to see the business/ratings talk don't have to. If you don't like it that much, ignore it or mark it as read.

I know; I just thought I had a brief point to make. I mean I hear it every time they talk about WCW or the territories. Business goes up, business goes down. It just feels like a lot of talk on here is much ado about nothing because of that. 

Anyway, my apologies; I just had to be a jerk and add the SHUT UP haha

[barrybonanza]

4 hours ago, Stefanie Sparkleface said:

This thread exists for a reason, so people who don't want to see the business/ratings talk don't have to. If you don't like it that much, ignore it or mark it as read.

People will just invent a new thing to doom and gloom about. Most of the people who sowed discontent about WWE's ratings and how they were on the verge of being cancelled instead have moved on to AEW's ratings, and nobody thinks about the alternate methods of viewership. Whenever I see a low rating, I just figure there were other reasons and I'd want to see the DVR numbers before worrying (especially on a busy TV night like Tuesday was), but oh wait, nobody reports those.

I get your point about fluctuating forms of viewing and all that, but NXT's remained pretty stable. AEW's fell off a cliff. 

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

24 minutes ago, barrybonanza said:

I get your point about fluctuating forms of viewing and all that, but NXT's remained pretty stable. AEW's fell off a cliff. 

I mentioned this in a previous post, but I think that has more to do with brand loyalty than it does anything else. WWE has a very consistent audience after decades in place, and is also smart about making it so you don't have to watch all their programming. If you're a regular Raw watcher, you rarely if ever need to watch Smackdown or NXT, and if anything relevant to Raw happens on those two shows, they're very smart about doing recaps. That sort of stability builds viewing habits that override a lot of other things. Not only that, but they loaded up the show, with talent from other brands. They didn't do that because they were against AEW, they did that because they were against the NHL, MLB, WNBA, hurricane coverage, et al. If they had ran a regular show, then you probably would've seen a 50-100k loss in viewers. Instead, they drew in fans of other parts of the company by having Jade Cargill, Bianca Belair, A-Town Down Under, and Randy Orton on the show. If you notice, that's all Smackdown talent, so people who just watch Smackdown might have been more intrigued to tune in.

AEW doesn't have that sort of brand loyalty, nor do they have a split of shows so they can beef things up from one side to the other. That's why if there is something else more intriguing on, you'll see their live audience dip (or in Tuesday's case, plunge). I'd be willing to bet that the 300k regular viewers they lost from two weeks ago to Tuesday gets made up in DVR watching, because that's the common trend with them when they're moved to another night/timeslot or up against bigger programming. Problem is, DVR numbers aren't as reported as live numbers, so we'll never know, and we're left to assume AEW just magically lost half their audience from one week to the next for unknown reasons.