AEW/ROH Finances, Ratings, etc.

[Curt McGirt]

I have no comment about any of these economic arguments but we still use Dish in this household and I'm thinking as long as satellite television is around there'll be some purchase with having TV stations, if not cable itself. There are people that will always want to just be able to have their local stations along with whatever weird shit is out there and the packages they want. 

[NoFistsJustFlips]

All of thr future looking outlooks are pretty much spot on. But it's gonna take a while for us to get there. Bleeding 33% of paying customers is an alarming stat. But again 70M cable & satellite subscribers is still the second highest user base. Saying let's abandon that for an unproven thing that will, in the future like 10 years down the road, replace it... is just not a financially acceptable strategy.

Another factor no one is really considering is the point I brought up about media appearances. I'm not advocating for booking for anyone's passed away grandmother. But these news stations and radio stations that supply the time aren't ran by Gen Z zoomers. They're still rna by the old school boomers that still look down at the newer technologies.

You don't get a 5 minute spot with Oramge Cassidy on Good Day Albuquerque or whatever if you're a You Tube only promotion. These old suits that run the stations aren't going to give up air time for that. And those appearances are important in the local markets for promotion and ticket sales. Without those the sales would probably be a good 10-15% lower than they already are.

The cell phone / landline analogy is a good one. But we're in 1999 here and you're advocating for everyone to throw out their landlines and only market to cellphone users. Sure that ends up being the right outcome, but you're 5-8 years ahead if that curve before it becomes commonplace. It's not a wrong outlook, it's just a wrong for this point in time outlook.

Edited August 14 by NoFistsJustFlips

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

17 minutes ago, NoFistsJustFlips said:

Another factor no one is really considering is the point I brought up about media appearances. I'm not advocating for booking for anyone's passed away grandmother. But these news stations and radio stations that supply the time aren't ran by Gen Z zoomers. They're still rna by the old school boomers that still look down at the newer technologies.

You don't get a 5 minute spot with Oramge Cassidy on Good Day Albuquerque or whatever if you're a You Tube only promotion. These old suits that run the stations aren't going to give up air time for that. And those appearances are important in the local markets for promotion and ticket sales. Without those the sales would probably be a good 10-15% lower than they already are.

Yeah, that's not true in the slightest. Prior to retiring from event production in 2019 I would arrange for media appearances for talent, and nearly all of my events didn't have TV. Either it was from us building out our own infrastructure to stream, using a hosting service, or using YouTube or Twitch. You know what those morning/noon news programs cared about? "Are you going to be doing something interesting locally in one of our big buildings?" Local interest stories that can fill a couple of minutes and might involve one of the newscasters wearing a wacky costume are always going to be welcomed. You know how I booked them? I called them up and said "I have this event in X amount of weeks at [convention center/war memorial/coliseum/whatever], can we appear on your show to promote". It's not that hard.

[Kevin Wilson]

All a fun read, I've enjoyed the discussion. I don't think things in 2024 are quite where they should just abandon trying to get on cable as a (they hope) still growing company, cable is still huge nationally and the cord cutters that have Hulu Live, Youtube TV, SlingTV, Fubo, etc still watch AEW via "cable" channels (or the deals AEW gets from them). That's still how the vast majority of the viewing audience is used to watching weekly TV shows. I don't think we are at the point yet as a society to say that cable TV still isn't the best source of income for weekly TV shows and the best way to get major reach and still should be AEW's focus and goal. WWE just signed a five-year, $1.4 billion deal with NBC/USA for just Smackdown, and while AEW is no WWE in any measurable way there is still too much money in the traditional distribution method (at least for the short term) to abandon it.

I do think WWE and NFL have the right idea to diversify, it would be great if AEW could have Dynamite on cable, Rampage/Collision on Amazon Prime, Dark back on Youtube. But I think AEW not getting a traditional TV deal for the next 3 to 5 years would be a major step down for them and seen as a disappointment, they still need not only the visibility but the perception that they are a successful growing company and not a fading one.

Maybe by their next deal the momentum will continue to shift, I can't say what the viewing methods will be like in five, ten years. The last FFC report I saw (which is no doubt an estimate of course) says 7% of the population in the country still doesn't have access to high speed internet. That's a much smaller number than ten years ago and will no doubt continue to shrink. So for this one I still think AEW needs to stay on cable (if they can!) for the money and visibility, and go from there for the next deal.

[Kevin Wilson]

And even though TK speaks in hyperbole and can be a bit of a troll, I'm at least 55% sure these announcements relate to some type of TV or distribution deal:

“We’re on the verge of the most important announcements in the history of AEW. There are multiple aspects. The arrival of these announcements is imminent. We’ll have big news that could come at any time.

Isn’t that the best kind of wrestling surprise when you know something is coming and you want it and it’s exciting, but you’re not sure when it’s going to happen? You have that feeling it’s going to happen. The future of AEW is very bright."

- Tony Khan (via TVInsider)

[Matt D]

I could see him so laser focused on the negotiations that he's blind to the overall situation, but... the guy sure sounds optimistic. I found the following from Variety:

Quote

“House of the Dragon” hit a Season 2 high in viewership with Sunday's finale, which drew 8.9 million multiplatform viewers across HBO and Max, per Warner Bros. Discovery. That's up 14% from the Season 2 premiere night, which garnered 7.8 million viewers.

It does seem like staying with one entity but coming in multiple ways is a path. Whether it's a long term (or medium or even short) term path with this particular grouping of entities, who knows? But they're looking cross-platform as they gauge this stuff.

[Zakk_Sabbath]

Lol I was about to be a huge dickhead and be like " @Kevin Wilson when is that even  from?" Googled and it turns out it was published 5 hours ago! Certainly a bit of a relief, but then again, so was Fusient buying WCW, so I don't believe shit until the ink is dry.

For anyone else curious:

https://www.tvinsider.com/1147810/aew-tony-khan-all-in-wembley-stadium-dynamite-rampage/?srsltid=AfmBOoqXEfm0g94yMSKVz2KKolC64xaUe9DRDkzqVNZhgLZ5Fj_SRiZl

ETA: This article also contains maybe the greatest pic ever taken of TK, fuck that Shane noise:

Quote

"It was inspirational any time you’re in the vicinity of Flavortown."

 

Edited August 14 by Zakk_Sabbath

[Kevin Wilson]

19 minutes ago, Zakk_Sabbath said:

Lol I was about to be a huge dickhead and be like " @Kevin Wilson when is that even  from?" Googled and it turns out it was published 5 hours ago! Certainly a bit of a relief, but then again, so was Fusient buying WCW, so I don't believe shit until the ink is dry.

 

Ha I feel ya, I saw multiple people on twitter quoting it so I just assumed it was an accurate quote. Which is dangerous, I know.

[AxB]

33 minutes ago, Zakk_Sabbath said:

 

Triple H is going to be fuming that Coach Tony K stole his photo gimmick.

[Elsalvajeloco]

2 hours ago, NoFistsJustFlips said:

You don't get a 5 minute spot with Oramge Cassidy on Good Day Albuquerque or whatever if you're a You Tube only promotion. These old suits that run the stations aren't going to give up air time for that. 

Yeah, they gotta give it to Gus Fring so he can plug the new menu items for Los Pollos Hermanos.

 

 

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

1 hour ago, Kevin Wilson said:

All a fun read, I've enjoyed the discussion. I don't think things in 2024 are quite where they should just abandon trying to get on cable as a (they hope) still growing company, cable is still huge nationally and the cord cutters that have Hulu Live, Youtube TV, SlingTV, Fubo, etc still watch AEW via "cable" channels (or the deals AEW gets from them). That's still how the vast majority of the viewing audience is used to watching weekly TV shows. I don't think we are at the point yet as a society to say that cable TV still isn't the best source of income for weekly TV shows and the best way to get major reach and still should be AEW's focus and goal. WWE just signed a five-year, $1.4 billion deal with NBC/USA for just Smackdown, and while AEW is no WWE in any measurable way there is still too much money in the traditional distribution method (at least for the short term) to abandon it.

I do think WWE and NFL have the right idea to diversify, it would be great if AEW could have Dynamite on cable, Rampage/Collision on Amazon Prime, Dark back on Youtube. But I think AEW not getting a traditional TV deal for the next 3 to 5 years would be a major step down for them and seen as a disappointment, they still need not only the visibility but the perception that they are a successful growing company and not a fading one.

Maybe by their next deal the momentum will continue to shift, I can't say what the viewing methods will be like in five, ten years. The last FFC report I saw (which is no doubt an estimate of course) says 7% of the population in the country still doesn't have access to high speed internet. That's a much smaller number than ten years ago and will no doubt continue to shrink. So for this one I still think AEW needs to stay on cable (if they can!) for the money and visibility, and go from there for the next deal.

Well, not Fubo. They haven't had WBD channels since 2020, and are actually actively suing WBD and Disney to try and block Venu from launching. The crux of their argument is that if Venu launches, it will kill Fubo as a service. That says more about how Fubo is mismanaged and failed to adapt compared to YouTube TV/Hulu/Sling than anything else.

The problem with diversification is what I mentioned upthread... who do you get? Again, most potential TV partners are either tied up with WWE, just left a partnership with WWE, or in a state of chaos. Amazon is really the only one out there that hasn't dipped their toe into the water, but their money and attention is likely elsewhere (with NFL/NBA partnerships, primarily). Diversification would be great. I just don't see who you do it with, considering the state of the market and where things are looming on the horizon, and what potential avenues are already blocked off.

That's why I say that if the market isn't bearing out for you, it's smart to plan for where the market is going to be in a few years, not where the market was five years ago or where you'd ideally like it to be today. When people say "well it wouldn't work" or "it would be a disappointment", to the former I say "tell me how" and to the latter I say "it would be a disappointment to have your show be watched by less and less people as cable continues to shrink and you have no backup plan".

The earlier point (not made by you, but I wanted to address it) about how YouTube is an "unproven market" is also bizarre to me. The NFL is in an agreement with them for their season archival package. The NBA and the WNBA use it as another measure for League Pass. They have partnerships with three dozen different streaming services (including Max, Paramount+, and Starz) to cohost their services, and in some cases function as their backbone. It's quickly on its way to becoming a one stop app. If it's not involved in marketing plans, then I personally think it's a big mistake.

If they want to stick with cable because it's fine for now, fine. At some point they will need to plan for the future, and nobody's ever been successful standing pat at what's fine for now.

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

4 minutes ago, Elsalvajeloco said:

Yeah, they gotta give it to Gus Fring so he can plug the new menu items for Los Pollos Hermanos.

 

 

If you get anything extra, no you didn't.

[Kevin Wilson]

5 minutes ago, Stefanie Sparkleface said:

YouTube is an "unproven market" is also bizarre to me. The NFL is in an agreement with them for their season archival package. The NBA and the WNBA use it as another measure for League Pass. They have partnerships with three dozen different streaming services (including Max, Paramount+, and Starz) to cohost their services, and in some cases function as their backbone. It's quickly on its way to becoming a one stop app. If it's not involved in marketing plans, then I personally think it's a big mistake.

Not to speak for anyone else but I think the big difference there is that all those you mentioned are incredibly massive, have 30+ years of building a fanbase/subscription base outside of Youtube (WNBA is in the deal with NBA so clumping them together), and also still have traditional cable distribution. I don't think AEW has the popularity or 'background' (or money) to take that type of risk. Maybe they will in five years but I'd have to see an example of a company less than five years old pulling $200+ million a year via Youtube before I'd consider it viable for AEW (since their expenses are currently $188 million a year, and they want to make money with this deal without making big cuts to contracts or production).

Doesn't mean they can't utilize Youtube better, I agree with you there and hopefully their new deal will give them some flexibility.

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

13 minutes ago, Kevin Wilson said:

Not to speak for anyone else but I think the big difference there is that all those you mentioned are incredibly massive, have 30+ years of building a fanbase/subscription base outside of Youtube (WNBA is in the deal with NBA so clumping them together), and also still have traditional cable distribution. I don't think AEW has the popularity or 'background' (or money) to take that type of risk. Maybe they will in five years but I'd have to see an example of a company less than five years old pulling $200+ million a year via Youtube before I'd consider it viable for AEW (since their expenses are currently $188 million a year, and they want to make money with this deal without making big cuts to contracts or production).

Doesn't mean they can't utilize Youtube better, I agree with you there and hopefully their new deal will give them some flexibility.

According to Wrestlenomics/Brandon Thurston, AEW's total revenue for 2023 was $154 million, of which their TV rights fees globally were $75 million ($67.5 million of which came from WBD). You can find that here. https://wrestlenomics.com/2023/12/11/aew-financial-estimate-revenue-profitability-for-2023

Their current YouTube numbers come solely from advertising, and considering they put little effort in promoting their YouTube channel as it stands, I'm not surprised it's around $750K. That's without subscription info and with them killing their original in-ring programming. They could be doing way better there.

The only real argument I can see for upping the rights fees that they get from WBD is the additional programming they receive as Collision and Rampage are freebies currently, but again, I'd be pleasantly surprised if they get to $100 million a year. That only puts another $32.5 million into the pot, or still not breaking even for expenses. And that's if WBD is even willing to give them a bump because of their current cost-cutting measures, how advertisers aren't spending as much, how cable is decreasing, etc etc.

So if you're requiring a rights increase to break even on your expenses, and you're not going to get it from WBD, again I ask, at what point do you try something different? Do you cut costs to get into the black, do you continue to absorb losses and hope for an upswing, or do you look to the future?

[Kevin Wilson]

I'm expecting the per year rights deal to be well over $100 million so I guess we won't know for sure what they'd have to make on youtube (hypothetically) to cover what they get from WBD (or someone else) until we get the final numbers. Not that I still think it would be a good idea so early in a company's existence but its all about the money either way. I'm just not convinced they could make $100 million a year themselves on Youtube with their current fanbase size, it would be a big risk I think they'd only take if they had no other options. Nor do I know if TK is even interested in running a wrestling show that isn't on traditional TV. With 2x more programming I assumed they were aiming for at least $125 mil a year for the TV deal. Its hard to say what their best course is for this year without knowing what WBD's offer is, hopefully we will know soon! Please soon.

[zendragon]

6 hours ago, Curt McGirt said:

I have no comment about any of these economic arguments but we still use Dish in this household and I'm thinking as long as satellite television is around there'll be some purchase with having TV stations, if not cable itself. There are people that will always want to just be able to have their local stations along with whatever weird shit is out there and the packages they want. 

You and I I are about the same age, you have your parents and I have dish because my roommate is a 60 something year old retiree. Which get to the crux of the issue the cable/satellite/broadcast audience are aging out of the valuable demos. Its just not how younger people are engaging with culture. There's a reason so many prime time shows are reboots from the early 2000s or earlier, and I don't think I've ever known a non boomer who regularly watches late night talk shows

[username]

8 hours ago, Stefanie Sparkleface said:

The earlier point (not made by you, but I wanted to address it) about how YouTube is an "unproven market" is also bizarre to me. The NFL is in an agreement with them for their season archival package. The NBA and the WNBA use it as another measure for League Pass. They have partnerships with three dozen different streaming services (including Max, Paramount+, and Starz) to cohost their services, and in some cases function as their backbone. It's quickly on its way to becoming a one stop app. If it's not involved in marketing plans, then I personally think it's a big mistake.

I think the disconnect between you and others here is that... none of these major leagues are using it as their primary media vehicle, much less the sole one. I don't think anyone disagrees that AEW can make a deal with them or someone similar to handle part of their business, but there is a real reason why none of these leagues or companies is putting all their chips in this basket at this point.

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

10 hours ago, username said:

I think the disconnect between you and others here is that... none of these major leagues are using it as their primary media vehicle, much less the sole one. I don't think anyone disagrees that AEW can make a deal with them or someone similar to handle part of their business, but there is a real reason why none of these leagues or companies is putting all their chips in this basket at this point.

Yes, that is a reason that AEW doesn't have, because they have the cultural sway to carve their own path. AEW doesn't have that sway. Further, let's be real with each other; AEW maintaining their partnership with WBD would essentially be the meme of the dog sitting in the house on fire saying "everything is fine". It's been mentioned before in this thread by Elsalvajeloco that WBD hasn't been a great partner to them, and I don't see any reason why maintaining that relationship would work out to their own benefit.

It's important to note that they're the only WBD partner that hasn't been brought onto Max. That's a major red flag in my eyes, and it's something that's hurt AEW's growth.

They have had to put on two additional shows a week with no increase in their rights fees. Do you think the NHL or NBA would let TNT Sports air extra games for free?

Their timeslots are constantly moved around to accommodate other organizations. There's nothing wrong with being a good partner, but when you don't know when one of your shows that you're providing for free is airing for a month, like Rampage usually is around March Madness and the NBA Playoffs, that's a problem.

Now, with pretty much every analyst in the TV business talking about how WBD is $40 billion in debt, and their creditors talking about how they will need to cut costs, sell off properties, or spin off their TV channels because cable is dropping, to go along with advertisers gradually leaving cable for streaming, is the best option to marry yourself to WBD for another few years or is the best option to go on your own?

Kevin mentioned he expects AEW to double their rights fees. That would be bold, because it would require WBD to be able to sell ads at double the pace they have been. That's a longshot, with advertisers taking their focus away from the platform, as well as two of the three shows being in cold slots (Rampage and Collision being in bad timeslots, I want to stress, is not AEW's fault, but expecting your rights fees to double because of those shows is a pretty wild stance considering the views they pull in). That also factors in that Dynamite has dropped in viewership, and I'll give AEW the benefit of the doubt and say that it's not their fault about viewership because of how cable has dropped.

But let's be generous and say they get their doubled rights fees. Nothing stops WBD from cancelling AEW if they want to cut costs further, and doubling those rights fees just increases the size of your target. With WBD trying to revamp truTV into being more like "TNT Overdrive", nothing stops WBD from moving AEW from TBS and TNT to truTV and tanking their visibility further. All it takes is the right person at WBD to say "I don't want this programming set". Nobody knows who is going to replace David Zaslav, or when it's going to happen, but with the current state of chaos at WBD, it will be soon, and for the sake of AEW, they better hope it's a Ted Turner-esque ally.

We can sit here and wishcast about how AEW should diversify and should aim for multiple linear networks and streaming services, and that would indeed be great, but the reality of the situation is they don't have a lot of choices. And again I ask, do you put your fate in the hands of a company in total chaos, or do you take your fate into your own hands? I'm not going to sit here and say it's a failsafe move. It's a dangerous one, it will require a lot of hustle to make work, there's no safety net, but that's how poorly I think of WBD's chances in their current environment.

Edited August 15 by Stefanie Sparkleface

[Matt D]

19 minutes ago, Stefanie Sparkleface said:

They have had to put on two additional shows a week with no increase in their rights fees. Do you think the NHL or NBA would let TNT Sports air extra games for free?

This is what Khan said in May 2023:

On the TV deal with Warner Bros. Discovery for Collision: “First of all, not really supposed to get into all of the specific details of the partnership with Warner Bros. Discovery but I would say the time that’s left on the previous deal, the current deal, is the same duration as what we were doing before. It’s a new deal. It’s a different scope than what we previously had with Warner Bros. Discovery, which is exciting for us. It creates a new opportunity for us to do another two hours of Saturday night live wrestling and it’s really going to change the company. But the length of the deal is the same as what we started with when we signed the extension in early 2020 right before the lockdown.”

On if they are being paid by WBD for Collision: “Yes, we’re definitely being paid for Collision and being paid very well. Yes, in addition to Dynamite and Rampage. We got a new contract, I think it’s fair to say. It’s more money, but it’s the same length of time. I was very excited about it. It was a big opportunity for us. It’s certainly very expensive to produce a two-hour live TV show, and on the weekend, doing it every week, it’s not going to be cheap, but it’s going to be great..."

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

11 minutes ago, Matt D said:

This is what Khan said in May 2023:

On the TV deal with Warner Bros. Discovery for Collision: “First of all, not really supposed to get into all of the specific details of the partnership with Warner Bros. Discovery but I would say the time that’s left on the previous deal, the current deal, is the same duration as what we were doing before. It’s a new deal. It’s a different scope than what we previously had with Warner Bros. Discovery, which is exciting for us. It creates a new opportunity for us to do another two hours of Saturday night live wrestling and it’s really going to change the company. But the length of the deal is the same as what we started with when we signed the extension in early 2020 right before the lockdown.”

On if they are being paid by WBD for Collision: “Yes, we’re definitely being paid for Collision and being paid very well. Yes, in addition to Dynamite and Rampage. We got a new contract, I think it’s fair to say. It’s more money, but it’s the same length of time. I was very excited about it. It was a big opportunity for us. It’s certainly very expensive to produce a two-hour live TV show, and on the weekend, doing it every week, it’s not going to be cheap, but it’s going to be great..."

Wrestlenomics reported their deal as $67.5 million per year prior to adding Rampage and Collision, as well as after, which to me indicates that those shows were freebies. If I have that wrong or misread that data, then that’s on me, but I’m going by the data I’ve seen.

[Matt D]

That would be a pretty big, very direct lie in that case. Not impossible. But striking. Did anyone follow up with the Wrestlenomics guys about the contradiction. It's not like they don't have access.

Edited August 15 by Matt D

[Curt McGirt]

16 hours ago, zendragon said:

I don't think I've ever known a non boomer who regularly watches late night talk shows

I always watch Colbert, and though it doesn't count @Midnight. My dad stays up drinking and watching Ambulance haha

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

1 hour ago, Matt D said:

That would be a pretty big, very direct lie in that case. Not impossible. But striking. Did anyone follow up with the Wrestlenomics guys about the contradiction. It's not like they don't have access.

No idea. They could have bundled the package together in their reporting or whatever extension they signed in 2020 could have mandated that WBD could add shows at their discretion. If it's the latter, that would have been a foolish choice by AEW. If the former, an understandable bit of reporting since all of AEW's packages are with the same media company, but they're all reported under Dynamite's line item, so it's a bit confusing to the reader when looking through their work.

[SirSmUgly]

w/r/t AEW doubling their rights fees with WBD, the U.S. Open tripled their rights fees with WBD just days ago: https://www.img.com/sports/our-news/wbd-triples-us-french-open-media-rights-value-in-blockbuster-deal#:~:text=Discovery will take over as,till 2034%2C SportBusiness Media understands.

That still leaves AEW a target for cancellation as Stef said, but I think it's likely that AEW doubles or even triples it's rights fees as WBD tries to show strength and fend off Comcast and other cable providers trying to cut their per-subscriber fees for TNT.

[Stefanie Sparkleface]

45 minutes ago, SirSmUgly said:

w/r/t AEW doubling their rights fees with WBD, the U.S. Open tripled their rights fees with WBD just days ago: https://www.img.com/sports/our-news/wbd-triples-us-french-open-media-rights-value-in-blockbuster-deal#:~:text=Discovery will take over as,till 2034%2C SportBusiness Media understands.

That still leaves AEW a target for cancellation as Stef said, but I think it's likely that AEW doubles or even triples it's rights fees as WBD tries to show strength and fend off Comcast and other cable providers trying to cut their per-subscriber fees for TNT.

BIAS ADMISSION: I am named after Steffi Graf.

It's the French Open they renewed the rights to, not the U.S. Open (ESPN holds the rights there), but the reason that tennis rights can triple is directly related to their high-dollar sponsors and the kinds of ad revenue they bring in. The French, for example, has Rolex as a primary sponsor. There may not be as many eyeballs on tennis, but the people watching will have significantly more cash to spend, which means ad buyers are going to spend more on those events.

Not to knock pro wrestling, but there's a pretty wide gap between, say, tennis sponsors such as Rolex or Lacoste, and wrestling sponsors like Manscaped and Wooo! Energy Drink.