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2014 NCAAF: Conference Championships


Dolfan in NYC

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Last chance for the brackets to get busted.  

 

Either TCU or tOSU gets screwed tomorrow.

 

And. . . I am praying to Jesus, Allah, and Buddah because as was rightly pointed out on Saturday, after all the talk about how great the SEC is this season, if Mizzou wins, there will probably be no SEC team in the playoffs. 

 

Whee! 

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Georgia Tech has a great shot at the upset. Not only do they have that tricky flexbone offense, but their defense has generated a ton of turnovers this year. And we all know how much Jameis has been turning it over this year. I'd put money on it if I was a degenerate gambler.

Arizona in a repeat over Oregon is the other great upset opportunity. Obviously, the odds say to take the loser in a rematch, but Arizona has the sort of nasty, attacking front 7 that gives Oregon fits.

I'm not sure Wisconsin over Ohio State would be much of an upset after what happened to Barrett. It took OSU a while to figure out how to best utilize Barrett, so I question whether they can figure out how to use Jones in a week. But OSU is just way, way, way more talented than Wisconsin, so it might not matter.

Missouri has no shot against Bama. Their offense has struggled mightily to get anything going against the better defenses they've played, and Bama's will be by far the best. Their only shot is if Big Hero 6 has another performance like the 1st half of the Iron Bowl, but that was so out of character for him, I wouldn't bet on him doing that two weeks in a row.

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Ah, the conundrum I face:

 

I'd like to see the SEC left out of the playoff picture so would love Missouri to score the upset.  Something tells me Bama would still get in even if they lost.

 

I'd like to see FSU left home because of their QB so will root for Georgia Tech.

 

If both of those things happen and Ohio takes care of business, then Ohio gets in.  And therein lies the conundrum.  Do I root for an outcome that benefits a school I hate?  Ugh.  Not to mention I legit don't think Ohio is a top 4 school this year.

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I'm kind of torn.

 

On one hand, fuck Wisconsin and all of its sports teams, so I'd like to see Ohio State's third QB lead them to victory in the B1G title game, which would give Ohio State a pretty solid claim on a playoff spot.

 

On the other hand, I want to see TCU get in simply because it would probably annoy the most people.

 

Of course, the scenario that Tabe describes above there would let Ohio State AND TCU both get in, so that sounds like the best possible outcome after all.

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I really want Alabama to lose just to see ESPN have no SEC team in the playoffs. There should be no way a 2 loss SEC team gets in before any 1 loss team from another conference. But the committee in past years has let Oklahoma in a BCS title game despite getting curb stomped in the Big XII title game. And there are other examples of this scenario.

 

Ohio State losing is a possibility since Michigan State beat them last season, and if Wisconsin can run the ball effectively, that will be their best chance.

 

Florida State losing seems to be a popular pick, which, given the way the season has gone, might be the game FSU actually wins convincingly.

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Even if by chance, Missouri does escape with a win, Bama, drops to #4 at worst. Like it or not, that's how it is.

 

Oregon may be the only top 4 that may actually lose. Even then, I'm not fully convinced. (This happens, and Baylor wins against Kansas State, they are in and OSU is out. No matter if OSU wins or not.)

 

Don't get your hopes up. FSU has been pulling horseshoes out of their ass a better part of the season. I don't see any difference against GT.

 

TCU should be able to take care of Iowa state So they are safe.

 

***I don't have the best track record when it comes to predictions, so none of this may be accurate. At all.

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Insert joke here:

RT @Jake_Trotter: Baylor has hired a PR firm (Kevin Sullivan Communications) to advocate its case for a playoff spot. Firm says they were hired last week

The director of the Anne Of Green Gables series? Neat!

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"BAYLAH HAS WALKED THE FERTEENTH STEP OF THE FERTEENTH PYRAHMID. THEY HAVE EATEN THE COSMIC COOKIE"

 

"Noted, Mr. Sullivan"

 

Anyways... unscientific picks:

 

Arizona covers the spread (13.5!) vs Oregon. Arizona beat Oregon in Eugene.

TCU plows Iowa State.

Alabama crushes Mizzou.

K-State beating Baylor seems possible.

Florida St over GA Tech unless Florida State keeps Tech in the game. If FSU goes up solidly early, they'lll be good.

Wisconsin over Ohio St.

 

Top teams ranked from most to least likely to lose: Ohio St, FSU, Baylor, Oregon, Alabama, TCU.

 

You could run a "Does TCU beat ISU by 35?" prop and get a majority picking "Yes". ISU is a baaaad team

 

Please give me a percentage of your winnings

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Oklahoma got in that year because the computers and the then BCS formula put them in. Not a committee. So they changed the rules, dropped margin of victory from the computer formulas, and strength of schedule and the quality win bonuses from the final formula.

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If the presumptive top 4 (Bama, Oregon, FSU, TCU) win out.. it's Bama/TCU and Oregon/FSU.

 

If Bama loses, I think they stay in the top 4, especially if Ohio St/Baylor lose. But it'd mean Oregon/Alabama and FSU/TCU.

 

Maybe i'm buying into convention with FSU/GT thinking that a run-heavy team might have problems playing from behind if FSU goes up by double-digits on GT. But GT's style might be unique enough to keep it close.

 

For as much as Florida State has underwhelmed, I think they'll make the title game. Then lose that game. If FSU beats GT and wins the Rose Bowl.. they will have 30 wins in a row going into the title game. Of the 14 teams to win 29+ in a row, 5 lost that streak in a bowl game (05 USC, 03 Miami, 92 Miami, 70 Texas and 50 Oklahoma). Making it to 29 in a row means FSU is in a spot where if they don't lose the streak in a bowl game, it'll be unusual compared to recent streaks (only bowl-era exception being OU's 47gm streak and Toledo having a 35gm streak as a perennial Tangerine Bowl winner).

 

So, if Florida State makes it to 31 in a row.. they could either lose quick.. or make a run at 40 in a row. For as lowly regarded as their 2014 season seems, they're doing some stuff right now that would have put them at #1 in previous decades. Under the old system, Florida State is not #3, but #1 or #2. But since there's a Championship Bowl path from being #3, they'll let FSU be #3.

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Under the old system, Florida State is not #3, but #1 or #2. But since there's a Championship Bowl path from being #3, they'll let FSU be #3.

or let them be #4.

 

Then they would blow the championship wad in the semis and we can't have that ;)

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