NBA - 2013-14 Regular Season - 1st Half

[Ryan]

Working backwards. Bennett's a failure so far, but who knows what he'll be in a few years. Davis is a success already. Irving is very good. Wall is fine. Griffin is very good. Rose would be great if he wasn't hurt. Oden's a miserable failure. Bargnani's a failure realistically. Bogut when healthy is good, but he's been hurt a lot. Howard's been good to great. Lebron is obvious. Yao Ming was great until he got hurt. Kwame Brown is a hilarious failure. Kenyon Martin could be considered a failure. Elton Brand had a solid career, but didn't pan out as a #1. Olowokandi was a miserable failure. Duncan has been amazing. Iverson was good to great. Joe Smith is a failure even after playing so long. Glenn Robinson was worth it until he got hurt. Webber was a very good player too. That's a pretty solid percentage overall of #1 overall picks. I guess that's about 6-8 failures out of 20 or so. That's about what you'd expect.

[LooseCannon]

Well, let's look at past drafts. Top pick and top three players by career win shares according to b-r.com, with where they were drafted.

2012 - Anthony Davis - Damian Lillard(6), Anthony Davis(1), Andre Drummond(9)

2011 - Kyrie Irving - Kawhi Leonard(1), Kenneth Faried(22), Chandler Parsons (38)

2010 - John Wall - Paul George(10), Greg Monroe(7), Ed Davis(13)

2009 - Blake Griffin - James Harden(3), Blake Grffin(1), Stephen Curry(7)

2008 - Derrick Rose - Kevin Love(5), Russell Westbrook(4), George Hill(26)

2007 - Greg Oden - Kevin Durant(2), Al Horford(3), Marc Gasol(48)

2006 - Andrea Bargnani - LaMarcus Aldridge(2), Paul Milsap(47), Rajon Rondo(21)

2005 - Andrew Bogut - Chris Paul(4), Deron Williams(3), David Lee(30)

2004 - Dwight Howard - Dwight Howard(1), Andrew Iguodala(9), Luol Deng(7)

2003 - Lebron James - Lebron James(1), Dwyane Wade(5), Chris Bosh(4)

2002 - Yao Ming - Amare Stoudemire(9), Carlos Boozer(34), Yao Ming(1)

2001 - Kwame Brown - Pau Gasol(3), Tony Parker(28), Tyson Chandler(2)

2000 - Kenyon Martin - Hedu Turkoglu(16), Mike Miller(5), Michael Redd(43)

1999 - Elton Brand - Shawn Marion(9), Elton Brand(1), Andre Miller(8)

1998 - Michael Olowokandi - Dirk Nowitzki(9), Paul Pierce(10), Vince Carter(5)

1997 - Tim Duncan - Tim Duncan(1), Chauncey Billups(3), Tracy McGrady(9)

1996 - Allen Iverson - Kobe Bryant(13), Ray Allen(5), Steve Nash(15)

1995 - Joe Smith - Kevin Garnett(5), Rasheed Wallace(4), Michael Finley(21)

1994 - Glenn Robinson - Jason Kidd(2), Eddie Jones(10), Grant Hill(3)

1993 - Chris Webber - Sam Cassell(24), Chris Webber(1), Anfernee Hardaway(3)

And then I got tired, but maybe this can help you see how the #1 pick is not a no-brainer.

[mco543]

I can't bring myself to label a guy a bust when his rookie season hasn't even hit the all star break yet. I'd much rather give Bennett an incomplete than F. I have no idea what's going on in Cleveland, that team seems to legitimately hate playing together, they refuse to discuss deals involving Waiters despite him being completely unhappy, and it's just a mess so I can't really fairly grade Bennett.

 

It's worth noting that a lot of high draft picks have rough starts to their career, although not usually this rough, and blossom into something really good. Sometimes it just takes a little more time than people would like.

[Assassin]

We should be finding words to rhyme with Embiid.

Make My Eyes Bleed for Joel Embiid

[Ryan]

Leaving out guys ruined by injuries, on that list it's probably safe to assume Kwame Brown is by far the biggest bust. I guess Joe Smith would be next depending on things.

[Zimbra]

I can't bring myself to label a guy a bust when his rookie season hasn't even hit the all star break yet. I'd much rather give Bennett an incomplete than F. I have no idea what's going on in Cleveland, that team seems to legitimately hate playing together, they refuse to discuss deals involving Waiters despite him being completely unhappy, and it's just a mess so I can't really fairly grade Bennett.

 

It's worth noting that a lot of high draft picks have rough starts to their career, although not usually this rough, and blossom into something really good. Sometimes it just takes a little more time than people would like.

 

You could be right, but I just don't see it at all with Bennett.  He's not athletic.  He's undersized for the 4 and too slow for the 3.  He's a bad defender, even at the college level.  He's (theoretically) a decent outside shooter but he can't create his own shot.  Even if you take him off the flaming garbage scow that is the Cavaliers I think he's, at best, a below-average NBA player.

[Brian Fowler]

I knew Bennett was struggling, but holy shit that chart.

 

To be playing, thus far, not just worse than Kwame (every one who had Kwame on their favorite team at one point, feel free to cry again) but significantly, MASSIVELY worse than Kwame...  Good fucking god.

[RandomAct]

I guess the really bad picks stick out when you see who came after them.  Olawokandi over Dirk and Pierce, Smith over Garnett, Brown over Parker and Gasol are crazy in hindsight.  2005-2007 probably should have had a different #1.  2008 and 2009 were loaded in retrospect.  Those years are tough to say "this is the guy" because they all turned out to be solid-very good.

[TimLivingston]

That 1999 class really sucked. Holy crap.

[Ryan]

I don't know about that. Nine of the first ten had okay to good careers.

[Brian Fowler]

With Garnett, it's easy to forget how novel the idea of a kid coming straight from high school was, when most guys were playing at least two years of college ball.

[RandomAct]

That 1999 class really sucked. Holy crap.

99 was at least solid.  I mean, Marion can say that he was a major contributor for a championship team, and has a solid case for being in the HOF when you look at his numbers.  That 2000 crop though.  Geez Louise.

[Brian Fowler]

Yeah, you can't even attack any of the gms for bad picks in 2000, because, fuck, nobody really panned out.

 

I mean, I guess Crawford should have gone higher than 8th, but...  Yikes.  Hedo? 

 

Michael Redd in the second round is absurd in retrospect, especially given how bad the rest of the draft was.  He made the All-NBA third team in 2004, which is the only time anyone from that class made an All-NBA team.  Martin and Jamal Magloire are the only other two players to even make all-star games. 

 

As mediocre as Kenyon Martin's career ended up being, he probably still goes 2nd if you could have redone the draft.

[AlfredoE]

 

We should be finding words to rhyme with Embiid.

Make My Eyes Bleed for Joel Embiid

 

 

LOVE THIS! It expresses what the fans who's teams are losing must be going thru and as a Laker fan, my eyes are bleeding just seeing the losses pile up.

 

 

I knew Bennett was struggling, but holy shit that chart.

 

To be playing, thus far, not just worse than Kwame (every one who had Kwame on their favorite team at one point, feel free to cry again) but significantly, MASSIVELY worse than Kwame...  Good fucking god.

 

We got Gasol for him and two rings! Kwame could at least keep bigs from scoring in the paint. He was horrible offensively and had that one game prior to being traded for Gasol that every Laker fan probably remembers were the team kept passing him the ball and he kept turning the ball over every time.

[Ryan]

He's still only 31(in fact 1 day older than me) which is astonishing.

[Serious Darius Bagfelt]

So fun to watch the Raptors these days...fuck tanking, I'm enjoying the ride. I

 

If they had managed to talk the Knicks into giving them a 1st rounder in a package for Kyle Lowry the tank would be on in full effect.  Like the roster now hope they resign Coach Casey.  Have to wonder if they will resign Lowry  

[JRGoldman]

Well, let's look at past drafts. Top pick and top three players by career win shares according to b-r.com, with where they were drafted.

2012 - Anthony Davis - Damian Lillard(6), Anthony Davis(1), Andre Drummond(9)

2011 - Kyrie Irving - Kawhi Leonard(1), Kenneth Faried(22), Chandler Parsons (38)

2010 - John Wall - Paul George(10), Greg Monroe(7), Ed Davis(13)

2009 - Blake Griffin - James Harden(3), Blake Grffin(1), Stephen Curry(7)

2008 - Derrick Rose - Kevin Love(5), Russell Westbrook(4), George Hill(26)

2007 - Greg Oden - Kevin Durant(2), Al Horford(3), Marc Gasol(48)

2006 - Andrea Bargnani - LaMarcus Aldridge(2), Paul Milsap(47), Rajon Rondo(21)

2005 - Andrew Bogut - Chris Paul(4), Deron Williams(3), David Lee(30)

2004 - Dwight Howard - Dwight Howard(1), Andrew Iguodala(9), Luol Deng(7)

2003 - Lebron James - Lebron James(1), Dwyane Wade(5), Chris Bosh(4)

2002 - Yao Ming - Amare Stoudemire(9), Carlos Boozer(34), Yao Ming(1)

2001 - Kwame Brown - Pau Gasol(3), Tony Parker(28), Tyson Chandler(2)

2000 - Kenyon Martin - Hedu Turkoglu(16), Mike Miller(5), Michael Redd(43)

1999 - Elton Brand - Shawn Marion(9), Elton Brand(1), Andre Miller(8)

1998 - Michael Olowokandi - Dirk Nowitzki(9), Paul Pierce(10), Vince Carter(5)

1997 - Tim Duncan - Tim Duncan(1), Chauncey Billups(3), Tracy McGrady(9)

1996 - Allen Iverson - Kobe Bryant(13), Ray Allen(5), Steve Nash(15)

1995 - Joe Smith - Kevin Garnett(5), Rasheed Wallace(4), Michael Finley(21)

1994 - Glenn Robinson - Jason Kidd(2), Eddie Jones(10), Grant Hill(3)

1993 - Chris Webber - Sam Cassell(24), Chris Webber(1), Anfernee Hardaway(3)

And then I got tired, but maybe this can help you see how the #1 pick is not a no-brainer.

 

Some of these can't be right. Kyrie has less WS than Faried and Parsons? I know he has been hurt more than them, but he grades out as a top 15 offensive player in the NBA according to Adjusted +/-. Same with Ed Davis having more than John Wall. Again, I know he has been hurt, but Ed Davis is very clearly a role player. 

 

The Bennett pick will go down as terrible and will make Chris Grant a punchline for years, which is too bad because other than that hideous blunder he has been a pretty decent GM. I even would say that people who say he can't draft are overstating things a bit. He picked Kyrie over Derrick Williams, which was a very real debate at the time. Thompson has become a solid player, and I don't think the Cavs would be a markedly better team with Jonas instead. Dion was the fourth pick of a three player draft, and while Lillard is clearly a better player than Dion, I think a backcourt with him and Kyrie is even more porous defensively and runs in to the same issues with ball stopping. Zeller is terrible,but I don't think the expected much from him. Bennett is indefensible, but the Cavs clearly wanted to trade the pick for an established asset (the major rumor was the pick and junk for Al Horford) and Grant drafted a player that he thought would give them flexibility to trade moving forward, because he could learn two positions, or be included in a bunch of packages. He ended up drafting a player with Asthma, Sleep Apnea, a bum shoulder and 30 extra pounds. He may as well have drafted a random grandparent. I think Grant really out thought the room, and should have just taken Noel. Obviously they were never going to take MCW, nor should they have. Olidipo would have made the front court super undersized and turnover prone. Otto Porter filled the biggest need, but he is somehow worse than Bennett. I think Grant made a terrible choice, but was in a situation with a ton of terrible options. Outside of the draft, I think Grant has made a good number of moves that have been beneficial for the Cavs. He took a terrible roster and managed to gain a large number of draft picks that may become unprotected in a few years. He has enough cap space to search for a great player while keeping the core that they have assembled. I actually like the direction they are heading, and I don't think that tanking this year will really get them any farther. Since the trade for Deng, they are 3-1. Granted, that 3-1 includes a two point win over the Lakers and a 40 point loss to the Kings, but whatever. Let me live in my bubble for the moment, dammit!

[LooseCannon]

Some of these can't be right. Kyrie has less WS than Faried and Parsons? I know he has been hurt more than them, but he grades out as a top 15 offensive player in the NBA according to Adjusted +/-. Same with Ed Davis having more than John Wall. Again, I know he has been hurt, but Ed Davis is very clearly a role player.

Well, Irving and Parsons have the same WS/48 but Parsons has significantly more playing time. However, Faried actually has less playing time than Irving. Wall is dragged down by being a below-average player in his first two seasons. Not playing Davis enough seems to be one reason Lionel Hollins is no longer the coach of the Grizzlies.

WS probably overvalues rebounders who shoot a high percentage on garbage offense, but other measures tend to overvalue volume scoring.

[RandomAct]

Big trade!

 

Boston sends Crawford and Brooks to Warriors.  Toney Douglas to Miami, Joel Anthony to Boston.  From Miami, Boston will also receive Philadelphia's protected future first-round pick and a future second round pick

[Zimbra]

See, I think Oladipo was the no-brainer pick for the Cavs.  He would give them perimeter defense and ball movement, two things they badly need.  Waiters can move to the bench and bring scoring to the second unit.  And it makes an easier sell to Bron in free agency if they have a guy who can do some of the defensive heavy lifting for him.

 

Aaaand Boston goes all-in on shitting the bed this year.

[TimLivingston]

Warriors get a decent back up PG without giving up a 1 or anyone of notice. That's pretty huge. That basically gives them an 8 man rotation now. Maybe 9 if Mo Speights can actually start hitting a mid-range shot.

[Niners Fan in CT]

I didn't mind the trade. Celts started out alright but it's fallen apart now and Rondo is coming back soon so Crawford being traded is whatever. Actually, Rondo has been assigned to the Maine Red Claws so it looks like he'll be back very soon.

 

Nice move for the Warriors.

[LooseCannon]

I didn't mind the trade. Celts started out alright but it's fallen apart now and Rondo is coming back soon so Crawford being traded is whatever. Actually, Rondo has been assigned to the Maine Red Claws so it looks like he'll be back very soon.

He's been assigned to Maine for a workout and will be recalled at the end of the workout.

[supremebve]

http://espn.go.com/new-york/nba/story/_/id/10299083/jr-smith-mike-woodson-had-heated-run-monday-night

 

Did anyone watch NBA Gametime last night?  They showed an interview with J.R. and I'm not saying he was high, but when they went back to the studio Rick Fox asked "Did someone poke him in the eye?"  Sam Mitchell replied, "Which one?" 

 

THIS HAPPENED ON NBATV, if we never see those two again we know what happened.

 

[S.K.o.S.]

Washington has allegedly scored 43 points in the first quarter against Miami.  Leading 69-48 at the half.