2023 NFL OFFSEASON

[supremebve]

3 hours ago, Kevin Wilson said:

That's the toughest question, right? To get two out of the way, Lamar should get more money than Kyler and Russell so we can put them to the side. Watson is tougher. The Watson contract was incredibly stupid, we all said it at the time and we are all still saying it. NFL owners, agents, everyone knows it was stupid. If I was Lamar and I wanted to get paid, I'd be looking for a higher AVG than all of them but accept the fact teams may not repeat the stupidity of the guaranteed amount. The AVG for Wilson, Murray, and Watson was 48 mil, 46 mil, and 46 mil. If I was Lamar I'd be aiming to notch over them all in AVG (something like 250 mil over 5 years) but accept the fact my guaranteed may be closer to the deals of the first two (GTD at signing for them was 51% and 45%). So maybe I'd aim for 60% to be well over them but expecting to top Watson I think isn't going to happen. I know some people don't like the "a" word but that is where an agent would come in handy, as an agent could "backdoor" gather info from GMs and go to Lamar with "look, no one is paying 240 mil guaranteed but we can get this and this and this instead" which I think is the dialogue missing right now for him.

 

This is 100% reasonable, except Watson's contract exists and none of these contracts are created in a vacuum.  I know all of our memories are short with all the legal weed and internet gambling, but Watson's contract was the result of a bidding war.  The only reason that contract exists is because everybody could offer the money, but only one team was willing to offer the guarantee.  We didn't get here by chance, this is the next step in quarterback contracts.  If you go year to year to year, you'll see this is the next logical step.  Lamar's situation isn't just about Lamar, it's about the next guys too.  Lamar can take a discount, but then when Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts contracts come up, do they have to take a discount?  When Justin Herbert and Tua come up, do they take a discount?  No, none of these people are obligated to take a discount, nor should they.  If you want a franchise quarterback, which all of these guys are, you have to pay him.  There aren't enough good quarterbacks to go around, so if you want one, you have to pay for him.  I get it, mileage my vary on how good Lamar Jackson is, but you know who he's head and shoulders better than?  Literally everyone else available.  There is no reason to believe that there will be another quarterback as good as Lamar Jackson available to the Ravens not just this year, but for the duration of any contract they can offer him.  That is why you have to pay him.  Here's the other thing that no one has talked about, Lamar has been playing on his rookie contract since 2018 and the Ravens have not found a single quality skill position player while he was cheap (him and Andrews came in together).  They did not use the money he saved them wisely in the past, why would he take a discount and trust them to use that money wisely now?  I get that the Ravens don't want to be the first team to match the Watson contract, but someone will be.  This is going to end up costing the GM, the coach, and probably everyone in the front office their jobs, because they don't want to pay the price on their most important player.

@lf2 You didn't answer the 2nd question.  Would you take a discount if you were Lamar?  

[Just Adam Bay Bay]

48 minutes ago, supremebve said:

This is 100% reasonable, except Watson's contract exists and none of these contracts are created in a vacuum.  I know all of our memories are short with all the legal weed and internet gambling, but Watson's contract was the result of a bidding war.  The only reason that contract exists is because everybody could offer the money, but only one team was willing to offer the guarantee.  We didn't get here by chance, this is the next step in quarterback contracts.  If you go year to year to year, you'll see this is the next logical step.  Lamar's situation isn't just about Lamar, it's about the next guys too.  Lamar can take a discount, but then when Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts contracts come up, do they have to take a discount?  When Justin Herbert and Tua come up, do they take a discount?  No, none of these people are obligated to take a discount, nor should they.  If you want a franchise quarterback, which all of these guys are, you have to pay him.  There aren't enough good quarterbacks to go around, so if you want one, you have to pay for him.  I get it, mileage my vary on how good Lamar Jackson is, but you know who he's head and shoulders better than?  Literally everyone else available.  There is no reason to believe that there will be another quarterback as good as Lamar Jackson available to the Ravens not just this year, but for the duration of any contract they can offer him.  That is why you have to pay him.  Here's the other thing that no one has talked about, Lamar has been playing on his rookie contract since 2018 and the Ravens have not found a single quality skill position player while he was cheap (him and Andrews came in together).  They did not use the money he saved them wisely in the past, why would he take a discount and trust them to use that money wisely now?  I get that the Ravens don't want to be the first team to match the Watson contract, but someone will be.  This is going to end up costing the GM, the coach, and probably everyone in the front office their jobs, because they don't want to pay the price on their most important player.

@lf2 You didn't answer the 2nd question.  Would you take a discount if you were Lamar?  

If I was Lamar first of all I’d hire an agent. The second thing I’d do would be have said agent contact every team that needs a QB. If the market came in, and I could get $250 million over five years with between 167 and 200 million guaranteed (or the amount Lamar has already been offered) then yes I’d take it. I don’t see how you’re looking at it at all. It’s not a “discount” when you’re getting paid the same amount as Watson. Yes it’s not guaranteed but when 75-80% of it is at what point do you say that’s enough for me? Bet on yourself, know you’ll play out the contract and when you do that other 20-25% is in your pocket. He’s not “taking a discount”.

Plus it feels like you keep writing novels with the same stuff over and over again. We get it. You love Lamar. Most of us see him as a QB with admit-able flaws (as my last post showed). You keep ignoring the flaws, and claiming “Baltimore owes him”. They don’t “owe him” a damn thing. He’s the one that has chosen to not have an agent, and then pout last season over a minor knee injury and not play. Of course that turned ownership against him, and to claim it shouldn’t have is preposterous. 

And this “they can’t find a QB as good as him in the next five years” makes me laugh. He’s not an Elite QB. His running skills are elite. If he throws 35-40 times a game they’re doomed. So yes finding a better all around QB in the draft or free agency will be possible (I’m thinking at least one of the top four from this year will be, and Caleb Williams next year).

Edited March 31, 2023 by LF2

[dogwelder]

The main problem IMO is that it's obvious that the NFLPA has gotten into Lamar's ear and is using him as a test case for fully guaranteed contracts.  I think it's another case of DeMaurice Smith not thinking things all the way through, and because of it Lamar's been caught in the middle.

[supremebve]

44 minutes ago, LF2 said:

Plus it feels like you keep writing novels with the same stuff over and over again. We get it. You love Lamar. Most of us see him as a QB with admit-able flaws (as my last post showed). You keep ignoring the flaws, and claiming “Baltimore owes him”. They don’t “owe him” a damn thing. He’s the one that has chosen to not have an agent, and then pout last season over a minor knee injury and not play. Of course that turned ownership against him, and to claim it shouldn’t have is preposterous. 

And this “they can’t find a QB as good as him in the next five years” makes me laugh. He’s not an Elite QB. His running skills are elite. If he throws 35-40 times a game they’re doomed. So yes finding a better all around QB in the draft or free agency will be possible (I’m thinking at least one of the top four from this year will be, and Caleb Williams next year).

I've literally never rooted for Lamar Jackson to win a single game in his entire career. I absolutely despite the Ravens. I hate the Ravens more than the NCAA, and I think all of those people should be thrown in jail. This is less about Lamar and more about how no one should work for less money than their work is worth. Fuck those people,  they don't live you,  the only relationship you have with them is for them to pay you for your work. If your work is worth $10, do not under any circumstances accept $9.99.

Go back 10 years and look at all the quarterbacks drafted and count how many are better than Lamar Jackson. A lot of quarterbacks got drafted,  but only Mahomes,  Allen, and Burrow are better and only Mahomes' best has been better than Jackson's best. He absolutely is elite and you cannot easily replace him. 

[Kuetsar]

Another factor that may play role in this is the inevitable contract revision.  Since he doesn't have an agent is he going to be willing to play ball?  Both Mahomes and Allen(and is does Jackson no favors to be compared to either) restructured their deals to make cap room. Will Jackson when the time comes? Probably, by not guaranteed. As to the open market, I'm not sure a team gives him a fully guaranteed without the 2 1s hanging there. He's an injury prone running QB who may not be a team player.(Just because it was in his best interests to not play in the playoffs is not a concern of the team.)  If you told me one of the three of Jackson, Allen and Mahomes would be out of the NFL in five years, I know which one I'd pick. If the Bengals or Chargers give a fully guaranteed contract, they are dumb too.  No having said all that, the man will get paid, and paid well. But I see why he probably wont get the contract he's looking for. Whether he "deserves" it or not is irrelevant if nobody's gonna give it to him.

[supremebve]

9 minutes ago, Kuetsar said:

Another factor that may play role in this is the inevitable contract revision.  Since he doesn't have an agent is he going to be willing to play ball?  Both Mahomes and Allen(and is does Jackson no favors to be compared to either) restructured their deals to make cap room. Will Jackson when the time comes? Probably, by not guaranteed. As to the open market, I'm not sure a team gives him a fully guaranteed without the 2 1s hanging there. He's an injury prone running QB who may not be a team player.(Just because it was in his best interests to not play in the playoffs is not a concern of the team.)  If you told me one of the three of Jackson, Allen and Mahomes would be out of the NFL in five years, I know which one I'd pick. If the Bengals or Chargers give a fully guaranteed contract, they are dumb too.  No having said all that, the man will get paid, and paid well. But I see why he probably wont get the contract he's looking for. Whether he "deserves" it or not is irrelevant if nobody's gonna give it to him.

I hear you,  but the fully guaranteed contracts are coming. We are getting to a point where there is only so much you can pay one player and you'll have to insentivize your best player with something other than a big number. Honestly,  $50 million per year is a huge number,  and going forward it will be the minimum for a franchise quarterback.  Guaranteeing the contract is actually going to keep the salaries down in the short term.   If you go year by year,  the teams who are consistently in the playoffs are the teams with the elite quarterbacks.   You can get lucky and go on a playoff run without an elite quarterback,  but you probably won't go back the next year.   

Allen is way more reckless with his body than Lamar Jackson,  and the elbow injury is much more concerning than any injury Lamar has had. Paying Lamar is a risk,  but Allen and Burrow get hit as much if not more and have had more concerning injuries. It's football,  getting injured is part of it. Everybody on the field is an injury risk.

[StuntmanCrowley]

In other QB news, Nathan Peterman resigns with Chicago for 1 year.

[Kuetsar]

1 minute ago, StuntmanCrowley said:

In other QB news, Nathan Peterman resigns with Chicago for 1 year.

Oh FFS. He must be a monster eating film.

[supremebve]

7 minutes ago, StuntmanCrowley said:

In other QB news, Nathan Peterman resigns with Chicago for 1 year.

Nathan Peterman is The American Dream. 

[Contentious C]

31 minutes ago, Kuetsar said:

Oh FFS. He must be a monster eating film.

Or Roger Goodell is a monster eating...something...and Peterman's the guy with the proof.

[DEAN]

1 hour ago, StuntmanCrowley said:

In other QB news, Nathan Peterman resigns with Chicago for 1 year.

AWWWESOME!

[Just Adam Bay Bay]

3 hours ago, supremebve said:

I've literally never rooted for Lamar Jackson to win a single game in his entire career. I absolutely despite the Ravens. I hate the Ravens more than the NCAA, and I think all of those people should be thrown in jail. This is less about Lamar and more about how no one should work for less money than their work is worth. Fuck those people,  they don't live you,  the only relationship you have with them is for them to pay you for your work. If your work is worth $10, do not under any circumstances accept $9.99.

Go back 10 years and look at all the quarterbacks drafted and count how many are better than Lamar Jackson. A lot of quarterbacks got drafted,  but only Mahomes,  Allen, and Burrow are better and only Mahomes' best has been better than Jackson's best. He absolutely is elite and you cannot easily replace him. 

Okay let’s relate this to my real life. I get paid let’s say $17 an hour for the work I do. Is it worth that much? Probably not in all honesty. But it’s what the company offers so I take it, and I’m thrilled to make more than I should. At the same time I’m not offering to give money back to them, because that would be stupid. What are you (as a person advocating on Lamar’s) behalf offering that shows he deserves $250 million guaranteed? Deshaun Watson and his contract aren’t an argument as that’s his deal, and Cleveland felt good about it. In order to say “Lamar deserves $250 million” reasons are needed for why he’s that good. Sitting out the last third of the season and a playoff game to pout are reasons against that, and right now they clearly outweigh the “Well he won MVP four years ago” argument. Hell Rodgers won MVP two years ago, and nobody is saying he’s worth the $59 million he’s due this year either. 

So the 2012 draft-Now? Allen and Burrow have both been much better than his best in the playoffs. Nobody gives a crap about the regular season. Allen has made the AFC Championship game and lost through no fault of his own, and Burrow has made it to 2 AFC Championship games, and a Super Bowl losing because of his defense both times. But yes please remind us about Lamar’s singular playoff win, and how overcoming the great Ryan Tannehill is an accomplishment. Here’s the other QBs drafted from 2012-Now I’d take over Headcase Jackson (in order of draft year):

 

2012:

Russell Wilson (in his prime)

2020:

Justin Herbert (despite lack of playoff success)

Jalen Hurts (already guided a team further than Lamar can hope to, better athlete, better passer)

Tua (controversial pick, but if he can stay healthy I’d take him over Lamar)

2021:

Trevor Lawrence (the best overall leader on this list, will only get better with each passing season)

2022:

Brock Purdy (You know the guy that’s keeping the 49ers away from Lamar, and that already has more playoff success than Lamar) 

[supremebve]

12 minutes ago, LF2 said:

Okay let’s relate this to my real life. I get paid let’s say $17 an hour for the work I do. Is it worth that much? Probably not in all honesty. But it’s what the company offers so I take it, and I’m thrilled to make more than I should. At the same time I’m not offering to give money back to them, because that would be stupid. What are you (as a person advocating on Lamar’s) behalf offering that shows he deserves $250 million guaranteed? Deshaun Watson and his contract aren’t an argument as that’s his deal, and Cleveland felt good about it. In order to say “Lamar deserves $250 million” reasons are needed for why he’s that good. Sitting out the last third of the season and a playoff game to pout are reasons against that, and right now they clearly outweigh the “Well he won MVP four years ago” argument. Hell Rodgers won MVP two years ago, and nobody is saying he’s worth the $59 million he’s due this year either. 

He believes that's how much his work is worth,  therefore shouldn't accept a cent less. They don't agree,  and that's their right,  but if they didn't think he was worth close to that amount they would let him walk. But they won't,  because they know he's too valuable to lose. So either pay him or let him leave. 

[Just Adam Bay Bay]

1 hour ago, supremebve said:

He believes that's how much his work is worth,  therefore shouldn't accept a cent less. They don't agree,  and that's their right,  but if they didn't think he was worth close to that amount they would let him walk. But they won't,  because they know he's too valuable to lose. So either pay him or let him leave. 

He can believe whatever he wants. Unless he starts crapping gold guess what he’s not worth that to the Ravens which is literally the only thing that matters. I don’t see other teams lining up to offer it either so he needs to get out of his own head, and probably hire an agent to salvage this train wreck.

As for what they think he’s worth it’s clear they think he’s worth $250 million with 167-175 guaranteed we’ve already been over this. And why let him walk? They made a more than fair offer so he can either accept it, or find someone that wants him badly enough to trade for him. It’s not their fault he’s stupid and refuses to hire actual representation that would tell him to take the current offer.

[supremebve]

22 minutes ago, LF2 said:

He can believe whatever he wants. Unless he starts crapping gold guess what he’s not worth that to the Ravens which is literally the only thing that matters. I don’t see other teams lining up to offer it either so he needs to get out of his own head, and probably hire an agent to salvage this train wreck.

As for what they think he’s worth it’s clear they think he’s worth $250 million with 167-175 guaranteed we’ve already been over this. And why let him walk? They made a more than fair offer so he can either accept it, or find someone that wants him badly enough to trade for him. It’s not their fault he’s stupid and refuses to hire actual representation that would tell him to take the current offer.

Fuck that. He gets progressively more guaranteed money every year until someone signs him to a long term deal. I hope he doesn't sign for anything less than he feels he deserves. It only makes him more money and cripples their future without him. They could do three smart thing,  but they want to make a point that is going to get everybody currently on their staff fired. He's going to get the money one way or another and every day they wait the price goes up. 

[Just Adam Bay Bay]

1 hour ago, supremebve said:

Fuck that. He gets progressively more guaranteed money every year until someone signs him to a long term deal. I hope he doesn't sign for anything less than he feels he deserves. It only makes him more money and cripples their future without him. They could do three smart thing,  but they want to make a point that is going to get everybody currently on their staff fired. He's going to get the money one way or another and every day they wait the price goes up. 

Okay clearly I’m arguing with someone that refuses to apply common sense. How does he “get progressively more guaranteed money until someone signs him to a long term deal”? The Ravens did offer a deal featuring more guaranteed money if he hit certain criteria, but none of that would allow anyone else to sign him. You do know how roster bonuses work for MVP and stuff right? That’s what they offered him (only it was incentives should he be on the roster on x date). 

As for getting everyone fired this is also where I say you’re not using a bit of common sense. The GM is 100% safe as is their two time Super Bowl winning head coach. Harbaugh isn’t easily replaceable (even less so than Lamar), and besides if the owner wanted Lamar to get paid guess what? He’d get paid. So that’s not on the GM either. 

And how the hell do you figure the price goes up? Nobody is making an offer. In cases like this that means his worth is going down not up. Or do you not understand contracts either? If this were let’s say Josh Allen, and let’s use Tennessee as an example. If Tennessee wanted him they’d give him a 5 year $250 million dollar offer sheet immediately. They wouldn’t wait over a month, and decide, “oh damn we waited, now we need to offer Josh more money”. Only a fool would do that. 

[Dewar]

Not going back to find the rest of the Jets talk to quote, but they went 7-10 last season, and had three games (both New England games* and the Miami game in week 18) where if they got average quarterback play, they win all three games and make the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers isn't the same quarterback he used to be, but he's still an above average quarterback. Unless he regresses like Russell Wilson the Denver Bronco did, the Jets become a team fighting for playoffs in 2023. 

* Zach Wilson threw for over 300 yards in the first Patriots game, but he also threw three interceptions that led to six points for NE, and NE won the game by 5. 

If I was the GM, I would be trying to get Lamar as well, but I am not the GM. 

[Kevin Wilson]

Rodgers will 100% make the Jets better compared to last year, only question is just how much will it cost them and will they formulate a plan in case he retires next offseason. Otherwise its just a one year playoff revival and back to where they were.

[Dewar]

8 minutes ago, Kevin Wilson said:

Rodgers will 100% make the Jets better compared to last year, only question is just how much will it cost them and will they formulate a plan in case he retires next offseason. Otherwise its just a one year playoff revival and back to where they were.

Agreed. If Green Bay wants two #1 picks, no chance. Maybe this is the year Zach Wilson actually tries to become an NFL quarterback? 

[supremebve]

16 minutes ago, LF2 said:

 How does he “get progressively more guaranteed money until someone signs him to a long term deal”? 

That's how the franchise tag works. He gets an average of the top 5 quarterbacks the first time. They add an additional 20% the second time.  They add an additional 44% the third time. He also gets that money fully guaranteed if he decides he's not showing up until week 10. So,  he can decide he's not signing a long term contract unless they pay him what he wants, they can let him walk, or they can keep stringing this along destroying their salary cap. He has the leverage. They can play hardball,  but ultimately he's going to get the money. This is the exact thing that can get a GM fired. They have no other options as long as he franchise tagged. His cap price is too high to sign a vet and they don't lose enough when he plays to get a quality rookie. So they can either pay him,  trade him,  or let him walk. He doesn't have to do anything but collect money. That's why no one does this with their quarterback. It is both financial and team building malpractice. 

[Kevin Wilson]

With all the Lamar Jackson talk, one other shoe that may fall before he ever signs somewhere is an extension for Burrow or Herbert (probably not Hurts yet). Burrow could easily re-set the market again, and it is in both teams best interest if they can work out a deal to lock in their young QBs as soon as they are able to. So that would just be another consideration for Lamar in where he slots, depending on what their contracts are for.

[Contentious C]

I take it all back, I want Stephen A Smith to talk about Lamar instead of you guys, because while he's still just as fucking boring as this, he's not DRY, too.

[StuntmanCrowley]

About the only thing I can add to all of this is

 

Fuck that piece of shit DeShaun Watson and the scumbag organization that paid him.  This is all their fault.

[Kevin Wilson]

13 minutes ago, Contentious C said:

I take it all back, I want Stephen A Smith to talk about Lamar instead of you guys, because while he's still just as fucking boring as this, he's not DRY, too.

Such a contentious statement, I'm surprised coming from you of all people.

[Just Adam Bay Bay]

1 hour ago, supremebve said:

That's how the franchise tag works. He gets an average of the top 5 quarterbacks the first time. They add an additional 20% the second time.  They add an additional 44% the third time. He also gets that money fully guaranteed if he decides he's not showing up until week 10. So,  he can decide he's not signing a long term contract unless they pay him what he wants, they can let him walk, or they can keep stringing this along destroying their salary cap. He has the leverage. They can play hardball,  but ultimately he's going to get the money. This is the exact thing that can get a GM fired. They have no other options as long as he franchise tagged. His cap price is too high to sign a vet and they don't lose enough when he plays to get a quality rookie. So they can either pay him,  trade him,  or let him walk. He doesn't have to do anything but collect money. That's why no one does this with their quarterback. It is both financial and team building malpractice. 

Go read what franchise tag they used on him and do the math to tell me how that’s an average of the top 5 QB salaries. The tag they used gets him $32 million. It’s not worth the amount you’re making it out to be, nor will it get the GM fired. With each post you make you just come across as more delusional. Hell I think I could sooner have a debate with @Lawful Metal about any Houston sports team than I can you. You’re insufferable, and you keep recycling the same stupid as hell talking points. Just give it up. You’re a Lamar Stan whether you claim to be or not.