2023 Summer Blockbuster Movie Pool

[S.K.o.S.]

Making its triumphant return this year, it's the Summer Blockbuster Movie Pool!

Below are 20 movies set to be released this summer. You need to make two lists:
 
List 1: Choose 15 of the 20 movies and rank them from highest to lowest according to the domestic box office gross you think each movie will make through its first 4 weeks (28 days) of release. Note that you're not trying to leave out the 5 movies you think will do the worst; just leave out the 5 that you feel least confident about ranking. Also, you don't need to guess how much money they'll make - just rank them. I'll be using boxofficemojo.com as the source for how much money each movie makes.
 
List 2: Choose 15 of the 20 movies (doesn't have to be the exact same 15 as your first list) and rank them from highest to lowest according to the rating you think each movie will have on rottentomatoes.com after it's been out for 4 weeks. Again, you're not necessarily trying to leave out the five worst movies.
 
Scoring: Your two lists will be compared with the actual ranks of the 15 movies, and your score will be the sum of the absolute values of the differences between the rank you gave to each movie and its correct rank. LOWEST score wins.
 
Tiebreaking: In addition to your two lists, pick any one of the twenty movies and post exactly how much money you think it'll make domestically, in dollars, in its first 28 days of release.  If two or more people end up with the same number of points, the person whose dollar figure is closer to correct (on a percentage basis) will be ranked ahead of the other.  If that still results in a tie, then the person who posted their entry earlier will be ranked ahead of the other. Also, if two or more movies end up tied in box office gross right down to the dollar (pretty much impossible, but just in case), or end up with the exact same rating on Rotten Tomatoes, the ranking of those two movies will be set to whatever is more favorable for each individual person.
 
The movies:

Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (May 5)
Fast X (May 19)
The Little Mermaid (May 26)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Jun 2)
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Jun 9)
Elemental (Jun 16)
The Flash (Jun 16)
Asteroid City (Jun 23)
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Jun 30)
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (Jun 30)
Insidious: Fear The Dark (Jul 7)
Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (Jul 14)
Oppenheimer (Jul 21)
Barbie (Jul 21)
Haunted Mansion (Jul 28)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Aug 2)
The Meg 2: The Trench (Aug 4)
Gran Turismo (Aug 11)
Blue Beetle (Aug 18)
Strays (Aug 18)
 
Deadline: The last day you can post your lists is June 15th, 2023, but any movie that has already premiered must be left off your lists. So, for example, if you enter after May 19th, you can't put Fast X on either of your lists because it'll already be in theatres.
 
Editing lists: You may edit your lists after they're posted, but only up until the release of any movie that appears on at least one of your lists. Since time of entry is a tiebreaker, if you edit a list, make a new post stating that you've edited.
 
"The Adjustment Bureau" rule: Movies' release dates are not set in stone. If a movie's release date gets moved past September 30, 2023, and you have it on a list, it gets removed, and you get an additional number of points equal to your average points per movie on that list, rounded to the nearest whole number. 

Prizes:  Physical media is still a thing, right? The top three finishers each get one selection from the following list. Additional prizes will be added when or if we hit twelve, fifteen, and eighteen entrants.

SOUND OF METAL - Criterion dvd
UNCUT GEMS - Criterion dvd
ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI… - Criterion blu-ray

Good luck!

In so far: The Z, RIPPA, Kuetsar, DreamBroken, The Natural, John from Cincinnati, S.K.o.S., Hail Sabin, Elsavajeloco, Phantom Lord, JRGoldman, J.T.
 

Edited June 17, 2023 by S.K.o.S.

[RIPPA]

I will help with prizes again (including the booby prize) - I will shoot you a PM... eventually

[The Natural]

Glad the tradition returns. Pretty sure I'm the only person to enter every year since this was started 15 years ago in 2008. Fuck we're old. As it's back you wonder to do research, wing it, a combination of the two, stick with your list or make changes. I fancy Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse to be near to or top all Rotten Tomatoes lists.

EDIT: Forgot how hard this is to do.

Edited April 24, 2023 by The Natural

[John from Cincinnati]

Good thing Mario wasn't a summer release, because the success of that thing absolutely blindsided me. 

Glad this is back. Thanks, Spades. 

[Hail Sabin]

I look forward to the Rotten Tomatoes list killing me like every year. 

 

[The Natural]

1 hour ago, Hail Sabin said:

I look forward to the Rotten Tomatoes list killing me like every year. 

 

The Rotten Tomatoes list is the hardest part IMO.

[John from Cincinnati]

Don't know about that. There's a handful of movies that we should expect to be at the top for B.O., but you could talk yourself into so many wildly different orders for that. And that's before you have to figure out how soft the Marvel brand is, or what Barbie and Oppenheimer even are. It's a wild list. I might feel more comfortable with RT.

[RIPPA]

I feel comfortable in saying that somehow, someway - Indiana Jones is gonna fuck me

[John from Cincinnati]

Nice

[S.K.o.S.]

Hopefully that Dial in the title is a bar of soap.

[CSC]

1 hour ago, RIPPA said:

I feel comfortable in saying that somehow, someway - Indiana Jones is gonna fuck me

But ... there's no time for love, Dr. Jones.

Sorry.  

[S.K.o.S.]

 

[Elsalvajeloco]

The tricky part this year is if Barbie and Oppenheimer stay on the same day is guessing whether or not they cannibalize each other at the box office. 

That was an issue BEFORE the pandemic. Now, it seems to have gotten worse cause there was a long period where there were no major releases and it seems like everyone is still playing catch up.

 

[The Z]

Well, someone has to make the start. This is my favorite DVDVR tradition and I will always be back for it.

Rotten Tomatoes:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Jun 2)
2. Barbie (Jul 21)
3. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Jun 30)
4. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (Jul 14)
5. Asteroid City (Jun 23)
6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Aug 4)
7. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (May 5)
8. Blue Beetle (Aug 18)
9. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (Jun 30)
10. The Flash (Jun 16)
11. Gran Turismo (Aug 11)
12. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Jun 9)
13. Haunted Mansion (Jul 28)
14. The Meg 2: The Trench (Aug 4)
15. Fast X (May 19)

Box Office:

1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Jun 30)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (May 5)
3. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (Jul 14)
4. Fast X (May 19)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Jun 2)
6. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Jun 9)
7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Aug 4)
8. Blue Beetle (Aug 18)
9. Gran Turismo (Aug 11)
10. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (Jun 30)
11. The Meg 2: The Trench (Aug 4)
12. Insidious: The Red Door (Jul 7)
13. Strays (Jun 9)
14. Asteroid City (Jun 23)
15. Haunted Mansion (Jul 28)
 

Tie Breaker:

Guardians of the Galaxy 3 ($325 Million)

[RIPPA]

Fuck it - I am already overthinking this

BOX OFFICE

• 1.     Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (May 5)
• 2.     Fast X (May 19)
• 3.     Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Jun 9)
• 4.     Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (Jul 14)
• 5.     Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Jun 2)
• 6.     The Little Mermaid (May 26)
• 7.     Elemental (Jun 16)
• 8.     The Flash (Jun 16)
• 9.     Barbie (Jul 21)
• 10.  Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Jun 30)
• 11.  Insidious: Fear The Dark (Jul 7)
• 12.  Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (Jun 30)
• 13.  Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Aug 4)
• 14.  Gran Turismo (Aug 11)
• 15.  Blue Beetle (Aug 18)

ROTTEN TOMATOES

1. Oppenheimer (Jul 21)
2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Jun 2)
3. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (Jul 14)
4. Asteroid City (Jun 23)
5. Elemental (Jun 16)
6. The Little Mermaid (May 26)
7. Barbie (Jul 21)
8. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (Jun 30)
9. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (May 5)
10. Insidious: Fear The Dark (Jul 7)
11. Fast X (May 19)
12. The Meg 2: The Trench (Aug 4)
13. Strays (Jun 9)
14. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Jun 9)
15. Gran Turismo (Aug 11)
     

TIEBREAKER

Mission Impossible - $200 million

[Kuetsar]

Eh, last place here I come!

Rotten Tomatoes:

9. Fast X (May 19)

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Jun 2)

2. Elemental (Jun 16)

3. Oppenheimer (Jul 21)

4.Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (Jul 14)

5. Asteroid City (Jun 23)

6.Barbie (Jul 21)

7. Gran Turismo (Aug 11

)8. The Flash (Jun 16)

9. Fast X (May 19)

10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Jun 30

)11. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Jun 9

)12. Strays (Jun 9)

13. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (Jun 30

)14.The Meg 2: The Trench (Aug 4)

15.Blue Beetle (Aug 18)

 Box Office:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Jun 2)

2. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (Jul 14)

3 Elemental (Jun 16)

4.Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (May 5)
5. Fast X (May 19)
6.Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Jun 30)

7. The Little Mermaid (May 26)

8. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Jun 9)
9. The Flash (Jun 16)

10. Insidious: Fear The Dark (Jul 7)
11. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (Jun 30)
12. Oppenheimer (Jul 21)
13. The Meg 2: The Trench (Aug 4)
14. Gran Turismo (Aug 11)

15.Asteroid City (Jun 23)
 

Tie Breaker: Spiderman: $500 million

Edited May 1, 2023 by Kuetsar

[S.K.o.S.]

19 minutes ago, Kuetsar said:

Eh, last place here I come!

Your entry needs a tiebreaker

[Kuetsar]

8 minutes ago, S.K.o.S. said:

Your entry needs a tiebreaker

fixed.

[J.T.]

I am taking a five day staycation after being on exercise for over a month straight.  Most of that time was spent on night duty.

I am slowly recovering and don't feel quite as much like dirt as I did this time last week. 

I will eventually jump into this thing.  I might not make it in before GoTG3 weekend but I should have a ballot in by Fast X,

[DreamBroken]

Box Office
1. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (May 5) 
2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Jun 30) 
3. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (Jul 14) 
4. The Little Mermaid (May 26)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Jun 2) 
6. Barbie (Jul 21)
7. Fast X (May 19) 
8. The Meg 2: The Trench (Aug 4) 
9. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Jun 9) 
10. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Aug 4) 
11. Haunted Mansion (Jul 28) 
12. Insidious: Fear The Dark (Jul 7) 
13. Gran Turismo (Aug 11) 
14. Asteroid City (Jun 23)
15. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (Jun 30)

Rotten Tomato
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Jun 2) 
2. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (Jul 14) 
3. The Little Mermaid (May 26)
4. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Jun 30) 
5. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Jun 9)
6. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (May 5) 
7. The Flash (Jun 16) 
8. Fast X (May 19) 
9. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (Jun 30)
10. The Meg 2: The Trench (Aug 4) 
11. Barbie (Jul 21)
12. Gran Turismo (Aug 11) 
13. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Aug 4) 
14. Haunted Mansion (Jul 28) 
15. Insidious: Fear The Dark (Jul 7) 

Tiebreaker: Fast X : 198,000,000

[The Natural]

Box Office:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (May 5).

2. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (Jul 14).

3. Fast X (May 19).

4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Jun 2).

5. The Flash (Jun 16).

6. Barbie (Jul 21).

7. Oppenheimer (Jul 21).

8. The Little Mermaid (May 26).

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Jun 30).

10. Elemental (Jun 16).

11. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Jun 9).

12. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Aug 4).

13. Insidious: Fear The Dark (Jul 7).

14. Blue Beetle (Aug 18)

15. The Meg 2: The Trench (Aug 4).

Rotten Tomatoes:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Jun 2).

2. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (Jul 14).

3. Oppenheimer (Jul 21).

4. Barbie (Jul 21).

5. Asteroid City (Jun 23).

6. Elemental (Jun 16).

7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Jun 30).

8. The Flash (Jun 16).

9. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (May 5).

10. Fast X (May 19).

11. The Little Mermaid (May 26).

12. Insidious: Fear The Dark (Jul 7).

13. Blue Beetle (Aug 18).

14. The Meg 2: The Trench (Aug 4).

15. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Jun 9).

Tiebreaker:

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, $220 million.

[The Natural]

My strategy was a blend of overthinking, a little research and winging it.

[John from Cincinnati]

BOX OFFICE:

1.    Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
2.    The Flash
3.    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
4.    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
5.    The Little Mermaid
6.    Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning
7.    Fast X
8.    Barbie
9.    Elemental
10.    The Meg 2: The Trench
11.    Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
12.    Insidious: Fear the Dark
13.    Blue Beetle
14.    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
15.    Gran Turismo

 

ROTTEN TOMATOES:

1.    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2.    Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning
3.    Barbie 
4.    Asteroid City
5.    Oppenheimer
6.    Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
7.    Elemental
8.    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
9.    Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
10.    Fast X
11.    Blue Beetle
12.    The Little Mermaid
13.    Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
14.    The Meg 2: The Trench
15.    Gran Turismo
 

TIEBREAKER:

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, $225 million

[RIPPA]

Reminder so SKOS doesn't have to - if you want to include GotG3, you need to submit your lists today

[S.K.o.S.]

Due to the low turnout so far, I'm going to throw my hat in the ring. I'm not eligible to win any of the prizes!

BOX OFFICE
1. Fast X (May 19)
2. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (Jul 14)
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Jun 2)
4. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (May 5)
5. The Little Mermaid (May 26)
6. Oppenheimer (Jul 21)
7. The Flash (Jun 16)
8. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Jun 9)
9. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (Jun 30)
10. The Meg 2: The Trench (Aug 4)
11. Strays (Jun 9)
12. Asteroid City (Jun 23)
13. Insidious: Fear The Dark (Jul 7)
14. Blue Beetle (Aug 18)
15. Gran Turismo (Aug 11)

ROTTEN TOMATOES
1. Elemental (Jun 16)
2. Oppenheimer (Jul 21)
3. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (Jul 14)
4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Jun 2)
5. Asteroid City (Jun 23)
6. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (Jun 30)
7. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (May 5)
8. The Little Mermaid (May 26)
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Jun 30)
10. Strays (Jun 9)
11. The Flash (Jun 16)
12. Haunted Mansion (Jul 28)
13. Blue Beetle (Aug 18)
14. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Jun 9)
15. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Aug 4)

Tiebreaker: Mission Impossible $195 million