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Nice poster, but why on earth did they choose that pose for Catwoman? Really breaks up the theme... and she's wearing black on a black background, behind some rain... you can't even see her ass cleavage clearly anyway.

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There's been a lot of speculation on the domestic box office. I think it will do very well overseas but here in the states.. I've seen everything from a $100M opening weekend projection to $154M and some have said more than that.  I think $100M would be a big disappointment. If it receives good reviews maybe they could salvage it but still wouldn't be great. It'll be interesting. Batman's popularity is expected to carry it but is it too soon after Nolan and are people wondering how Affleck will be.. lots of questions. 

 

 

Now that the first tracking numbers are out, El Mayimbe is adamant that the $140 million estimate opening weekend in the trades is extremely conservative (worst case scenario in words) and that he expects it to at least beat the TDKR number and soundly beat the Hunger Games record for March.

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I don't know man. I think a lot of people are cautious. I could see a scenario where the worldwide numbers are very good but the domestic number is a bit of a disappointment. Everyone I've seen has said Affleck is fantastic. There's even people now saying Wonder Woman is awesome. I saw people say Eisenberg is terrific as Lex. But I have yet to see anyone say anything about Superman other then "It's pretty much the same portrayal and those who liked it before will and those who didn't, won't" 

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I don't know man. I think a lot of people are cautious. I could see a scenario where the worldwide numbers are very good but the domestic number is a bit of a disappointment. Everyone I've seen has said Affleck is fantastic. There's even people now saying Wonder Woman is awesome. I saw people say Eisenberg is terrific as Lex. But I have yet to see anyone say anything about Superman other then "It's pretty much the same portrayal and those who liked it before will and those who didn't, won't" 

 

I think it depends on what you mean by disappointment. I think the $100 million estimate number is way too low. Unless there is like a major blizzard or natural disaster, I don't see it being that low. I will wait until next week or the week before I start talking the $180-200m range like Mayimbe hinting at though.

 

The thing is...April is fucking vacant. No Fast and Furious movie. No Captain America. I expect Jungle Book to do good and compete with BvS for the family audience, but the blockbuster season doesn't get hot and heavy until Civil War. Then it's a fucking free-for-all. So basically, BvS basically has that "Nothing else is out so I guess I'll go see it" factor. If it was up against one or two other juggernauts, then I might feel a little worried. However, it ain't.

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That's true, it has some breathing room.  It also has a weekend/week where a lot of kids will be off from school so Thursday/Friday could be good for it. IF the reviews are even a little better than the mixed reaction for Man of Steel that could help too.  It was a smart move to get away from Civil War and try to carve out its own date. There doesn't seem to be any "death months" left on the calendar. Basically if it's cool and decent, people will see it no matter when it comes out.

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That's true, it has some breathing room.  It also has a weekend/week where a lot of kids will be off from school so Thursday/Friday could be good for it. IF the reviews are even a little better than the mixed reaction for Man of Steel that could help too.  It was a smart move to get away from Civil War and try to carve out its own date.

 

I'm looking at a Variety story right now saying The Disappointments Room (3/25) and Before I Wake (4/8) most likely won't even be in theaters during their intended release dates. I think it says a lot that two of the "biggest" releases during that timeframe are from Relativity Media, which is barely a thing anymore.

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That's true, it has some breathing room.  It also has a weekend/week where a lot of kids will be off from school so Thursday/Friday could be good for it. IF the reviews are even a little better than the mixed reaction for Man of Steel that could help too.  It was a smart move to get away from Civil War and try to carve out its own date.

 

I'm looking at a Variety story right now saying The Disappointments Room (3/25) and Before I Wake (4/8) most likely won't even be in theaters during their intended release dates. I think it says a lot that two of the "biggest" releases during that timeframe are from Relativity Media, which is barely a thing anymore.

 

 

Do you think rival studios just said "Fuck this, we're staying clear of the potential Batman/Superman train"  or it was just a smart move from WB?

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More the latter. March isn't usually a blockbuster month (remember, the first Hunger Games massively exceeded expectations.)

The next Divergent movie is also this month though, as blockbuster season is just becoming blockbuster year.

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More the latter. March isn't usually a blockbuster month (remember, the first Hunger Games massively exceeded expectations.)

The next Divergent movie is also this month though, as blockbuster season is just becoming blockbuster year.

I think the Divergent series is going to be diminishing returns anyway. It might have a decent opening, but it's going to have no staying power. I think the bloom is off the rose on most of the YA stuff.

As far as Niners' question goes, I think it's 50/50. Part of it is luck. There wasn't a whole bunch of stuff already there when it moved. There was suppose to be the Beverly Hills Cop movie there, but even if it came to fruition, it would have made no sense for a Ratpac project to compete with Ratpac. I believe that Hank Williams biopic is also Ratpac produced but it's a limited release. Plus, it has been buried in terms of marketing probably because of the bad reviews.

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I assume Divergent whatever will make a perfectly reasonable sum of money it's opening week and then promptly be forgotten.

And, the YA run, especially the distopia stuff is being killed by an absurd amount of overexposure and a startling lack of quality control. Just too god damn many mediocre to bad films, some from really good source material (they fucked up Ender's Game! They massively fucked up The Giver!)

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Keep in mind in terms of word of mouth, outside the nerd community badmouthing it, Man of Steel is fairly well liked. Audience score on RT was like 88% for much of the first year and is at 76% now. Most of the non-comics, non-film nerd people I talk to have been asking me barrages of questions because they're super pumped and want to know more comics shit going in. (Same effect with Deadpool). Some of the people I saw MoS with initially said it finally made Superman cool for them.

The idea of MoS being awful is kinda a niche opinion and it performed better than most MU films in theatres. I wouldn't underestimate BvS.

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Well that was part of my argument for why I didn't feel this DC Universe was being rushed or needed a slower build because many of the characters don't really need an introduction and the major players can make money on their own. They can drop right in the middle of an ongoing universe and branch out.  Man of Steel was evidence of that because even after Superman Returns had a mixed reaction, Man of Steel also had somewhat of a mixed reaction and it still made close to $700M worldwide whereas take a film like The Winter Soldier which was universally praised and followed The Avengers and had all that build and it tops out at $750M.  Then they follow up an awesome sequel with Civil War?  Make no mistake, I think it's going to surprise some people. I like everything I've seen out of Civil War so far. But that choice says to me that Disney isn't confident enough with Captain America to make what they want it to make, they feel they need to add Stark to the mix.

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