Hoffman Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Having more experience with Cardinal fans then anyone else here, I'm not even sure if you are joking or not. I'll admit I'm a Cardinal fan, but you can tell it's a parody because most of the words are spelled correctly. I do like to think of Cardinal Nation as something akin to the Children of the Corn, but instead of He Who Walks Behind the Rows, we've got Mike Shannon, so it's more of a "He Who Drinks Behind the Mic" kind of deal. Anyway, we need a new catcher? Pierzynski needs a new club? I'm thinking two great hates that go great together. If anyone can tame A.J. and switch him to the path of righteousness and class, it's Cardinal Nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piranesi Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Yadi goes down, which is preceded by AJ getting released. Can AJ fit in with the Cardinals way? Five minutes in the Black&White super-fast pepper simulator and we'll know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSJ Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 The comments about Adam Dunn reminded me of the very first baseball book that I ever owned. Can't recall the title, but it was from Scholastic Press and I got it in first or second grade, so would have been 1964/65 or thereabouts. The theme of the book was that 3000 hits or 300 home runs were good for automatic inclusion in the HOF. Had to have been written a few years earlier as I recall that neither Roy Sievers or Joe Adcock were mentioned and both got to the 300 milestone shortly thereafter. So I'll guess that it was written around 1960. Funny how things have changed, today anyone that's reasonably good for a decade is going to get to 300 and even 500 doesn't mean much these days. I still recall when Dave Kingman was the only guy with over 400 taters who wasn't inducted. I was still on the side of "500 should be an automatic number" until Dunn was brought up. Yes, I can see Raffy in the HOF, but not Dunn, not by any stretch of the imagination. FWIW: 3000 is still an ungodly amount of hits, one has to be very, very good for a long time to compile that number and I can't really think of anyone that has that number who isn't HOF-worthy, even Yaz, (who has to be in bottom 10% of HOFrs) still deserves to be there. Looking at current players, is there anyone tracking to make it to 3000 who could be the first person determined to be unworthy of inclusion? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoffman Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 The enemy of our enemy is our friend. Come home to Baseball Heaven, A.J. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piranesi Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 I can't think of anyone anywhere close who's not awesome although everyone will shit when A-Rod gets there next year? Ichiro? Pujols? Beltre? All awesome. Also the font and spacing of your post makes me think you faxed it to Rippa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Man Known as Dan Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 I can't think of anyone anywhere close who's not awesome although everyone will shit when A-Rod gets there next year? Ichiro? Pujols? Beltre? All awesome. Also the font and spacing of your post makes me think you faxed it to Rippa. Adrian Beltre is of 2,525 career hits, and with so few 3rd Basemen really playing at a high level, it's reasonable to think he can get there. If he gets there, does he get in? Because he surely isn't in the "obvious in" list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Based on some of Baseball Reference's metrics, he's borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Man Known as Dan Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I think the more interesting thing to consider is what will be the line for pitchers getting in now? I look at the active pitchers list, only 2 have more then 200 wins. They are also the only 2 pitchers with over 150 wins with a sub 3.75 career ERA. Should those 2 make it if you account for the modern era? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSJ Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Beltre should require an additional 500 hits to get in as a penalty for stinking up the joint while in Seattle. Pitching stats are always interesting to look at as no others change quite so radically. It wasn't so very long ago that without 300 wins a player wouldn't even be considered. Hell, Don Sutton was considered very borderline even with 300 Ws as he never had one of those huge seasons. Unless someone comes along who is a genetic freak like Nolan Ryan and pitches well into their 40s, I'm pretty sure we've seen the last of the 300 game winners. So what will the new "can't miss" metric be? 200 seems awfully low, but with 20-win seasons getting rarer and rarer, it might not be out of the question. Still, the W-L record is a pretty poor barometer of a pitcher's true value. Will there be closer scrutiny of other stats that are more meaningful? Quite probably, as the composition of the BBWA gets younger and likely starts to include some writers that at least have some understanding of sabremetrics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Man Known as Dan Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I'm going to give a pitching stat line, you tell me if you think they should get in, without name. 444 GS, 212 W, 117 L, 3.42 ERA, 1974 SO, 1.23 WHIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kuetsar Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I'm going to give a pitching stat line, you tell me if you think they should get in, without name. 444 GS, 212 W, 117 L, 3.42 ERA, 1974 SO, 1.23 WHIP No. . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kuetsar Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 ERA is too high. btw. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Man Known as Dan Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 If that's the case, there isn't an active HOF worthy pitcher who has more then 120 wins: that's the lowest ERA of the bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Lucia Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I know who that is, and he's not a Hall of Famer. You're focusing on the fact that he was a very good pitcher for very good to great teams. What if I further broke down that pitcher's stats and said that he never struck out 200 hitters in a season, has a career strikeout to walk of 2.29, was only a three-time All-Star, and received Cy Young votes only four times? I love Tim Hudson, but he's not a Hall of Famer. His JAWS (Jay Jaffe's HOF system, which averages seven-year high WAR with career WAR) is 75th. Among the players higher that got no HOF consideration: Kevin Appier, David Cone, Chuck Finley, Dave Stieb, Bret Saberhagen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cristobal Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I'm going to give a pitching stat line, you tell me if you think they should get in, without name. 444 GS, 212 W, 117 L, 3.42 ERA, 1974 SO, 1.23 WHIP Not enough info. What about walks and home runs? Innings pitched so we can get some K/9 action going? Also, what's the years this encompasses? 3.42 ERA in the 90s is not the same as 3.42 ERA in the 70s. EDIT: After looking up the pitcher: Nope. I do think the low HR marks is a positive, but the low K-rate is a downside. 3.75 xFIP != HoFer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Man Known as Dan Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I know who that is, and he's not a Hall of Famer. You're focusing on the fact that he was a very good pitcher for very good to great teams. What if I further broke down that pitcher's stats and said that he never struck out 200 hitters in a season, has a career strikeout to walk of 2.29, was only a three-time All-Star, and received Cy Young votes only four times? I love Tim Hudson, but he's not a Hall of Famer. Fair enough, but that is kinda my point here: the standard is changed so much that I'm not sure if there is a HOF worthy pitcher in the class of active guys over 30. The best cases would be what, Sabathia, Verlander, and Lee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odessasteps Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I dont think you should throw put a stat line anymore without a context. That line in 2014 means a different thing than an identical line from 1967 or 1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Man Known as Dan Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Fair point. So without looking at stats, what pitchers who had a prime in the last 10 years did you think had a HOF level impact/longevity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Lucia Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 The bar has been moved, that's definitely for sure - you're seeing it right now with Schilling getting criminally undersupported for the HOF. Pedro, Johnson, and probably Smoltz will all get in relatively easily, and then what happens to the bar for pitchers? The class of 2016 has trash in the way of SP, but a pair of damn good closers in Wagner and Hoffman. Will they cruise in? The class of 2017 doesn't even have those type of pitchers. In 2018, we get to make the "peak vs longevity" argument with Johan (assuming he truly is done after this Achilles injury) and Moyer on the ballot. By then, we'll have more of an idea about what's going on with guys like Sabathia, Lee, and so on. It really is uncharted waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Tanaka has partially torn UCL, will try rehab. Uh oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Man Known as Dan Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I will say the only thing the stats tell me, is that Roy Halladay needs to be in. 200 wins, 3.38 career ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2117 SO, 592 BB, 8 time All-Star, 2 time Cy Young. His case clearly is head and shoulders above the other candidates from the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Lucia Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I actually think Halladay is the perfect example of the new gold standard for a HOF pitcher. Incredible peak, durable, didn't hang on too long to kill his overall numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kuetsar Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Halladay is the only one of this generation currently worthy. King Felix or someone else might get there(not counting closers, who the hell knows with them). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piranesi Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Based on some of Baseball Reference's metrics, he's borderline. But he's so fucking cool. Doesn't that mean anything to you mathbots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabe Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Adrian Beltre is a HOFer. Four-time Gold Glove winner, lots of big offensive seasons, good career totals. He belongs. But he won't get in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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