2014-15 NCAAF - THE PLAYOFFS! (and Bowls)

[Hail Sabin]

Hey, if Marshall had just finished the season off strong, they'd quite possibly be in one of the non-playoff money games.  They didn't get the job done.

 

Instead Boise State gets that slot.

I know I was hoping they would just get a Bowl after Christmas.

 

Unless Boise St gets a big time money booster or The Big 4 conferences go to 16 teams that most people will happen sometime in the next 10 years then they are on the outside every year. In the new system that's not that bad of a thing if they can be the highest other 5 team every year.

[cubbymark]

As much as I am a fan of what Boise State has been able to do and as cool as it is for them to "stick it to the man," the $$$ factor is what will keep them in the Mountain West and MAC tier of conferences. The argument for who should move to the Big XII should be to back up the truck in Notre Dame's direction.

 

Granted, they are a better fit geographically in the B1G but with 14 teams there might not be room football-wise. But if Notre Dame wants to fancy themselves a national football power, there are worse places to be than the Big XII. You'd have money matchups with Texas and Oklahoma every year and it could be a conference they would be perennial contenders in. In addition to that, they could get a good new rivalry out of TCU.

[EVA]

Nobody is scared of Boise winning their conference. No major conference will give Boise the time of day because they bring nothing to the table in terms of TV markets. Nobody is desperate to add Idaho to their footprint.

 

They've proven time and again that not only can they hang with major conference teams, but they can beat them. Should they join a major conference there would be growing pains, no doubt. But, it's naive to think that the major conferences don't look at Boise and say, "Is it really worth bringing them in and possibly knocking off some of our already established top teams?" That's not to say the lack of a TV market doesn't play a role, it's probably the main factor, but there's also a healthy amount of not wanting to lose face to a team that the casual fan still, misguidedly so, thinks of as inferior to every major conference team.

Nobody cares about any of that. It's all about the additional revenue you can bring to the table. If fear of the usurper could keep a moneymaker out of the major conferences, then Utah and TCU wouldn't be where they are today. But both brought something of value to their respective conferences. Utah expanded the Pac-12's footprint and brought in the Salt Lake City market. TCU helped the Big 12 compensate for the loss of A&M in Texas. Boise brings nothing to the table. Plain and simple.

Believe me, as a Southern Miss fan, I'm well aware of the fairytales that fans of quality mid-major programs tell themselves to make themselves feel better about their lot in the grand scheme of things. But its simply not true.

 

But here is the thing, Southern Miss is not a threat to beat anybody?

 

Presently, no...god, no. But historically, Southern Miss has been one of the premier mid-major programs. They've beaten lots of big name competition in their history.

[Dewar]

Idaho clearly isn't a major television market, but Boise games apparently draw ESPN good numbers.

As for the rest of their sports, men's basketball made the NCAA tournament two seasons ago, and play in a building nice enough to host tournament games.

[Niners Fan in CT]

There's no teams left. I get why people would be skeptical of adding a Boise but who is left to add..

[EVA]

If they're looking to go west, BYU. They've been reasonably successful trying the independent thing, but they'd join the Big 12 in a heartbeat if offered. The Sunday scheduling would be a pain in the ass, but they're desirable enough with their huge, nationwide fanbase to override that.

More likely though, the Big 12 would try to move north and east to expand their footprint and create travel partners for West Virginia. The ACC is currently locked down tight with enormous buyouts, and WVU would block Marshall (not that they're desirable at all in the first place), so really they'd be looking for Notre Dame (and there were rumors of mutual interest during the Big 12's last spin on the realignment carousel, although how much of that was Texas bullshit coming from Chip Brown, I don't recall) or teams from the American. Cincinnati would be a take, for sure.

[Gonzo]

As much as I am a fan of what Boise State has been able to do and as cool as it is for them to "stick it to the man," the $$$ factor is what will keep them in the Mountain West and MAC tier of conferences. The argument for who should move to the Big XII should be to back up the truck in Notre Dame's direction.

 

Granted, they are a better fit geographically in the B1G but with 14 teams there might not be room football-wise. But if Notre Dame wants to fancy themselves a national football power, there are worse places to be than the Big XII. You'd have money matchups with Texas and Oklahoma every year and it could be a conference they would be perennial contenders in. In addition to that, they could get a good new rivalry out of TCU.

 

It's going to sound crazy, but maybe in a year or two. . .if not right now. . .North Dakota State could be a potential target for the Big XII. They're currently on the march for a fourth straight FCS Championship, and they regularly go on the road and beat D-I competition. Believe they've beaten a D-I opponent in something like six consecutive seasons, and nobody wants to go to Fargo to play them, so they go to places like K-State, Iowa State, and Colorado State and win.

 

Granted, I'm guessing that they might want to go to a smaller conference first, but I honestly don't know which other conference would step in. Maybe the Mountain West or something.

[evilwaldo]

If they're looking to go west, BYU. They've been reasonably successful trying the independent thing, but they'd join the Big 12 in a heartbeat if offered. The Sunday scheduling would be a pain in the ass, but they're desirable enough with their huge, nationwide fanbase to override that.

More likely though, the Big 12 would try to move north and east to expand their footprint and create travel partners for West Virginia. The ACC is currently locked down tight with enormous buyouts, and WVU would block Marshall (not that they're desirable at all in the first place), so really they'd be looking for Notre Dame (and there were rumors of mutual interest during the Big 12's last spin on the realignment carousel, although how much of that was Texas bullshit coming from Chip Brown, I don't recall) or teams from the American. Cincinnati would be a take, for sure.

 

BYU went the ND route by setting up their own broadcast network which was the reason for them going Indy.  Nobody to share their football dollars with at the end of the day. 

 

Would BYU join one of the five major conferences?  That depends on if they get to keep all of their TV network money.

 

Every conference that called ND about joining was told no once the conferences asked to share their NBC contract.

[Jenalysis]

ND is locked into the ACC for non-football.  They can't go anywhere else

 

Cincy and BYU are probably the best choices.

 

That said, I think all conferences should be 14 for the sake for fairness.

[EVA]

If they're looking to go west, BYU. They've been reasonably successful trying the independent thing, but they'd join the Big 12 in a heartbeat if offered. The Sunday scheduling would be a pain in the ass, but they're desirable enough with their huge, nationwide fanbase to override that.

More likely though, the Big 12 would try to move north and east to expand their footprint and create travel partners for West Virginia. The ACC is currently locked down tight with enormous buyouts, and WVU would block Marshall (not that they're desirable at all in the first place), so really they'd be looking for Notre Dame (and there were rumors of mutual interest during the Big 12's last spin on the realignment carousel, although how much of that was Texas bullshit coming from Chip Brown, I don't recall) or teams from the American. Cincinnati would be a take, for sure.

BYU went the ND route by setting up their own broadcast network which was the reason for them going Indy. Nobody to share their football dollars with at the end of the day.

Would BYU join one of the five major conferences? That depends on if they get to keep all of their TV network money.

How much money do you think BYU makes off their TV deal?

BYU went independent because they have a national fanbase and the Mountain West had a terrible TV deal that failed to reach a sizable portion of that fanbase. Currently, BYU gets roughly $1 million per home game (give or take, depending on the attractiveness of the opponent) as part of their TV deal. So we're talking between $8-$10 million per year. Good money, for sure, and definitely more than they were getting from the Mountain West.

But the Big 12 annually distributes double that number to it's member institutions in media rights fees (with that number projected to increase exponentially over the course of the contract), and obviously has no problems with national exposure thanks to their deals with ESPN and FOX.

BYU would jump to the Big 12 in a heartbeat.

[Jerry Hattrick]

What about SMU? Could they get in the Big XII, or are they long forgotten about?

Other than the ones we have mentioned, the only way I can see the Big XII getting two more schools is if there is another shakeup like we have had recently.

[JLowe]

I can't see the Big XII adding anyone, at this point it's either going to fall apart after the current TV contracts and Grant of Rights expires, or someone is going to find a way to blow it up beforehand.

The lack of a CCG will be irrelevant once Texas and/or OU get their shit together, as it's clear that national and historical status matter the most.

[Robert C]

I'd be shocked if the Big 12 added SMU.  Doesn't add a new market at all and has a fairly small, if wealthy, alumni base.  They've been pretty much irrelevant to football in Texas since the mid 80s.  If they're gonna add old SWC schools, I think they'd look at UH before SMU, and I don't think they're gonna add UH.

[Brysynner]

I'd say the Memphis, Cincy and BYU are would be the three names they'd look at. Each bring a new market, Cincy and Memphis are also part of their eastward expansion and all the schools bring in some basketball cred too which doesn't hurt. But the big thing is the market.

[JLowe]

Back when the Big 12 added WVU and TCU, they should've added Louisville and either Memphis or Cincinnati. It would've made sense at the time.

 

If the Big 12 were to expand (and again I don't think it will, but I don't know much) look for them to expand into Louisiana and/or Florida. Would likely add 4 teams, so someone like Cincy or Memphis as a closer team for WVU, maybe BYU (the Sunday thing is a big deal for baseball, which is huge in the Big 12), and teams like USF, UCF, and/or someone like Louisiana-Lafayette.

 

My personal dream is for UT and OU (and probably Texas Tech and Okie State cos of politics) to go to the PAC 12.

[evilwaldo]

 

 

If they're looking to go west, BYU. They've been reasonably successful trying the independent thing, but they'd join the Big 12 in a heartbeat if offered. The Sunday scheduling would be a pain in the ass, but they're desirable enough with their huge, nationwide fanbase to override that.

More likely though, the Big 12 would try to move north and east to expand their footprint and create travel partners for West Virginia. The ACC is currently locked down tight with enormous buyouts, and WVU would block Marshall (not that they're desirable at all in the first place), so really they'd be looking for Notre Dame (and there were rumors of mutual interest during the Big 12's last spin on the realignment carousel, although how much of that was Texas bullshit coming from Chip Brown, I don't recall) or teams from the American. Cincinnati would be a take, for sure.

BYU went the ND route by setting up their own broadcast network which was the reason for them going Indy. Nobody to share their football dollars with at the end of the day.

Would BYU join one of the five major conferences? That depends on if they get to keep all of their TV network money.

How much money do you think BYU makes off their TV deal?

BYU went independent because they have a national fanbase and the Mountain West had a terrible TV deal that failed to reach a sizable portion of that fanbase. Currently, BYU gets roughly $1 million per home game (give or take, depending on the attractiveness of the opponent) as part of their TV deal. So we're talking between $8-$10 million per year. Good money, for sure, and definitely more than they were getting from the Mountain West.

But the Big 12 annually distributes double that number to it's member institutions in media rights fees (with that number projected to increase exponentially over the course of the contract), and obviously has no problems with national exposure thanks to their deals with ESPN and FOX.

BYU would jump to the Big 12 in a heartbeat.

 

You underestimate the drawing power of their fanbase.

 

$8-10 million is pretty good money for a startup channel.  It is not they have been doing this for decades like ND but that is their model. 

 

Home games in Utah, their own channel, and away games in places where they can sell tickets to their fanbase (soon).

 

Do I think they would jump to the Big 12?  Yes but like ND it would depend on them keeping the money from their channel.

[EVA]

If they're looking to go west, BYU. They've been reasonably successful trying the independent thing, but they'd join the Big 12 in a heartbeat if offered. The Sunday scheduling would be a pain in the ass, but they're desirable enough with their huge, nationwide fanbase to override that.

More likely though, the Big 12 would try to move north and east to expand their footprint and create travel partners for West Virginia. The ACC is currently locked down tight with enormous buyouts, and WVU would block Marshall (not that they're desirable at all in the first place), so really they'd be looking for Notre Dame (and there were rumors of mutual interest during the Big 12's last spin on the realignment carousel, although how much of that was Texas bullshit coming from Chip Brown, I don't recall) or teams from the American. Cincinnati would be a take, for sure.

BYU went the ND route by setting up their own broadcast network which was the reason for them going Indy. Nobody to share their football dollars with at the end of the day.

Would BYU join one of the five major conferences? That depends on if they get to keep all of their TV network money.

How much money do you think BYU makes off their TV deal?

BYU went independent because they have a national fanbase and the Mountain West had a terrible TV deal that failed to reach a sizable portion of that fanbase. Currently, BYU gets roughly $1 million per home game (give or take, depending on the attractiveness of the opponent) as part of their TV deal. So we're talking between $8-$10 million per year. Good money, for sure, and definitely more than they were getting from the Mountain West.

But the Big 12 annually distributes double that number to it's member institutions in media rights fees (with that number projected to increase exponentially over the course of the contract), and obviously has no problems with national exposure thanks to their deals with ESPN and FOX.

BYU would jump to the Big 12 in a heartbeat.

You underestimate the drawing power of their fanbase.

 

$8-10 million is pretty good money for a startup channel.  It is not they have been doing this for decades like ND but that is their model. 

 

Home games in Utah, their own channel, and away games in places where they can sell tickets to their fanbase (soon).

 

Do I think they would jump to the Big 12?  Yes but like ND it would depend on them keeping the money from their channel.

I think you misunderstand BYU's television situation. They didn't break away from the Mountain West and form their own TV channel for sports. They broke away and cut a deal for their home games with ESPN.

BYUtv was in existence long before they broke away from the MW and isn't a dedicated sports channel, though it does carry a lot of their non-revenue sports. As part of their deal with ESPN, they do get to carry 1 game a year on that channel, but that's no different than the deal Texas has with the Longhorn Network or any of the other B12 schools have with their individual media rights. It would not be a hangup in negotiations.

[Robert C]

Back when the Big 12 added WVU and TCU, they should've added Louisville and either Memphis or Cincinnati. It would've made sense at the time.

 

If the Big 12 were to expand (and again I don't think it will, but I don't know much) look for them to expand into Louisiana and/or Florida. Would likely add 4 teams, so someone like Cincy or Memphis as a closer team for WVU, maybe BYU (the Sunday thing is a big deal for baseball, which is huge in the Big 12), and teams like USF, UCF, and/or someone like Louisiana-Lafayette.

 

My personal dream is for UT and OU (and probably Texas Tech and Okie State cos of politics) to go to the PAC 12.

 

At the risk of echoing shit that's been posted on a thousand shitty football message boards, I don't think Texas and OU are going anywhere for a long, long time.  The rest of the Big 12 schools know those two are their meal tickets, and they won't let them go anywhere without a serious fight.  Baylor won't want to be left out of the party, and they still have outsized political pull, plus Ken fucking Starr as university president.  Even if Texas and OU found a way out, I don't figure the PAC 12 would want part of OSU or Tech.

 

I'm hoping this leads to more hilarious Chip Brown claims that ND, FSU, Clemson, etc are gonna join the Big 12 any day now.  It's been too long since we've had a new one of those.

[Pete]

I'd be shocked if the Big 12 added SMU. Doesn't add a new market at all and has a fairly small, if wealthy, alumni base. They've been pretty much irrelevant to football in Texas since the mid 80s. If they're gonna add old SWC schools, I think they'd look at UH before SMU, and I don't think they're gonna add UH.

Rice might have some potential. Opens up the Houston market and lets them slot in as the Vandy-type school that can stay competitive.

[JLowe]

 

I'd be shocked if the Big 12 added SMU. Doesn't add a new market at all and has a fairly small, if wealthy, alumni base. They've been pretty much irrelevant to football in Texas since the mid 80s. If they're gonna add old SWC schools, I think they'd look at UH before SMU, and I don't think they're gonna add UH.

Rice might have some potential. Opens up the Houston market and lets them slot in as the Vandy-type school that can stay competitive.

 

The Houston market for football is already essentially owned by UT and A&M.

[Dewar]

That and there's no way Rice would be competitive. There's a reason they got left behind during the SWC/Big 8 merger.

[JLowe]

 

Back when the Big 12 added WVU and TCU, they should've added Louisville and either Memphis or Cincinnati. It would've made sense at the time.

 

If the Big 12 were to expand (and again I don't think it will, but I don't know much) look for them to expand into Louisiana and/or Florida. Would likely add 4 teams, so someone like Cincy or Memphis as a closer team for WVU, maybe BYU (the Sunday thing is a big deal for baseball, which is huge in the Big 12), and teams like USF, UCF, and/or someone like Louisiana-Lafayette.

 

My personal dream is for UT and OU (and probably Texas Tech and Okie State cos of politics) to go to the PAC 12.

 

At the risk of echoing shit that's been posted on a thousand shitty football message boards, I don't think Texas and OU are going anywhere for a long, long time.  The rest of the Big 12 schools know those two are their meal tickets, and they won't let them go anywhere without a serious fight.  Baylor won't want to be left out of the party, and they still have outsized political pull, plus Ken fucking Starr as university president.  Even if Texas and OU found a way out, I don't figure the PAC 12 would want part of OSU or Tech.

 

I'm hoping this leads to more hilarious Chip Brown claims that ND, FSU, Clemson, etc are gonna join the Big 12 any day now.  It's been too long since we've had a new one of those.

 

In order to keep the Big 12 together as is, all of the teams signed a Grant of Rights which basically locks everyone in until 2025 or so. If a school leaves, they have to fork over all of the TV revenue they earn until the end of the GoR. It's allegedly ironclad, but I suspect that if UT and/or OU ever seriously wanted out they would find a way.

Baylor's pull last time around was all about Bob Bullock (and to a lesser extent Ann Richards). Tech will be included before Baylor, because of a desire for creating more Tier 1 public universities in the state of Texas.

At this point, the Big 12 is on life support, with UT and OU as the only two athletics prizes. All of the other conferences are aware of this, and know if they want one or both of those schools, they're going to have to accept little brother.

 

For the record, it wasn't just Chip Brown who was hearing that FSU and Clemson might be up for grabs after Maryland bolted. The ACC took care of business, unlike The Big 12.

[Robert C]

Yeah Houston is pretty much UT/A&M.  LSU is probably 3rd above UH & Rice.

 

Rice is at least better than KU and ISU, and could compete, if not win, vs most of the rest of the Big 12 at its current state..  They might be able to win 6-8 games in a good year with the right non-conference schedule.

[Robert C]

 

 

Back when the Big 12 added WVU and TCU, they should've added Louisville and either Memphis or Cincinnati. It would've made sense at the time.

 

If the Big 12 were to expand (and again I don't think it will, but I don't know much) look for them to expand into Louisiana and/or Florida. Would likely add 4 teams, so someone like Cincy or Memphis as a closer team for WVU, maybe BYU (the Sunday thing is a big deal for baseball, which is huge in the Big 12), and teams like USF, UCF, and/or someone like Louisiana-Lafayette.

 

My personal dream is for UT and OU (and probably Texas Tech and Okie State cos of politics) to go to the PAC 12.

 

At the risk of echoing shit that's been posted on a thousand shitty football message boards, I don't think Texas and OU are going anywhere for a long, long time.  The rest of the Big 12 schools know those two are their meal tickets, and they won't let them go anywhere without a serious fight.  Baylor won't want to be left out of the party, and they still have outsized political pull, plus Ken fucking Starr as university president.  Even if Texas and OU found a way out, I don't figure the PAC 12 would want part of OSU or Tech.

 

I'm hoping this leads to more hilarious Chip Brown claims that ND, FSU, Clemson, etc are gonna join the Big 12 any day now.  It's been too long since we've had a new one of those.

 

In order to keep the Big 12 together as is, all of the teams signed a Grant of Rights which basically locks everyone in until 2025 or so. If a school leaves, they have to fork over all of the TV revenue they earn until the end of the GoR. It's allegedly ironclad, but I suspect that if UT and/or OU ever seriously wanted out they would find a way.

Baylor's pull last time around was all about Bob Bullock (and to a lesser extent Ann Richards). Tech will be included before Baylor, because of a desire for creating more Tier 1 public universities in the state of Texas.

At this point, the Big 12 is on life support, with UT and OU as the only two athletics prizes. All of the other conferences are aware of this, and know if they want one or both of those schools, they're going to have to accept little brother.

 

For the record, it wasn't just Chip Brown who was hearing that FSU and Clemson might be up for grabs after Maryland bolted. The ACC took care of business, unlike The Big 12.

 

 

The part about Texas being able to get out if they really wanted to gets bandied about all the time.  It hasn't happened though.  Seems (at least to me) like either the the contract really is ironclad or Texas is happy enough where they are to stay.  Either way, they don't seem to be going anywhere anytime soon. 

 

Baylor may not have the top level folks they had at the end of the SWC period, but they've still got more pull than their size would seem to dictate.  Plus, they've gotta pay off their new stadium, and their tiny home attendance ain't gonna do that by itself.  They're not the only school that would be left out either.

 

I know it wasn't just Brown that missed on the conference expansion.  It's just that he's been so delightfully wrong so many times (A&M staying in the Big 12, Saban coming to Austin, etc) that he's an even easier target than Ketchum.

[JLowe]

Oh, UT (and possibly OU) is definitely happy to have things stand they way they are now, many still consider not having a CCG to be the easiest (and fairest although some of that is PR) path to the playoffs. However, If UT were ever to get screwed out of the playoffs the way that TCU just did, they would most definitely start looking for a way out.

We also have a new AD and will soon have a new University President, so that might change some things up.