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Dolfan in NYC

The NHL Begins Again on 10/12/16

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Poppycock. That team is great because they have 4 elite players and a very good supporting staff. Their bottom pairing/4th liners weren't any good though and they paid the price. Toews has to be the most overrated player in a generation or two. Intangibles do not win you games. Anze Kopitar is almost as good defensively and better offensively but we never hear about him being comparable to Crosby because he's Slovenian or something. 

To provide some statistical backing: over the past 4 seasons at 5v5, Kopitar leads the league among forwards with a Corsi for % of 59.5 compared to Toews at 55.6 (ranked 15th, not even the best on his team, as Hossa has better possession numbers). Kopitar actually leads the league among all skaters in that period.

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3 minutes ago, Oyaji said:

Poppycock. That team is great because they have 4 elite players and a very good supporting staff. Their bottom pairing/4th liners weren't any good though and they paid the price. Toews has to be the most overrated player in a generation or two. Intangibles do not win you games. Anze Kopitar is almost as good defensively and better offensively but we never hear about him being comparable to Crosby because he's Slovenian or something. 

To provide some statistical backing: over the past 4 seasons at 5v5, Kopitar leads the league among forwards with a Corsi for % of 59.5 compared to Toews at 55.6 (ranked 15th, not even the best on his team, as Hossa has better possession numbers).

You do realize that you are using analytics to argue non-analytical points?

 

 

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I do, because intangibles are a bunch of nonsense. If they were "marching to his beat" or whatever, they'd have better possession numbers.

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1 hour ago, evilwaldo said:

Toews is not about numbers.  It is about leadership and what he brings to the team in terms of focus and intensity.  The team literally marches to his beat.  Take him off Chicago and they are a different team.  Put him on almost every other team and they immediately get better.

This is meaningless tripe. Take a good player off  ANY team and they get worse. Add a good player and they better. Big deal. You could say the same thing about at least a hundred guys, if not more. 

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My only concern with Stamkos is this strange health issue. Like, you would hope it doesn't shorten his career or his time as an elite player, but I have to admit the length of time this issue has dragged on and how serious it is has me worried about his long term future.

 

Not enough that I wouldn't gamble on him if I was GM of the Red Wings, mind you. It's still a very good gamble. He's the biggest genuine free agent in a long, long time.

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22 hours ago, Oyaji said:

 Toews has to be the most overrated player in a generation or two.

Man, you get traded to Arizona and people have forgotten about Datsyuk already.

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2 hours ago, Death From Above said:

Man, you get traded to Arizona and people have forgotten about Datsyuk already.

...but those dangles so dirty that they should be dongles.

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The Blackhawks found the perfect complimentary players in Toews and Kane to build around. Look at how much of a disaster Kane has been at times without having any sort of responsibility beyond putting up points. Meanwhile, Kane's on ice production allows Toews to pick his spots more and not have his numbers put under a microscope.

I'd say intangibles DO win you games when teams are fairly evenly matched because the games are so tight. I think the biggest mistake teams make is thinking those intangibles will transfer with a player over to another group of players. Part of what makes Toews great for Chicago has a lot to do with him growing up as a player there, being around the other core players, and creating a winning environment where they can then plug in other pieces and make it work.

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I think the biggest mistake teams make is thinking those intangibles will transfer with a player over to another group of players

 

I think this is a good point. How much of that stuff is just the kind of understanding you build by playing with someone long enough to know their tendencies? The kind of shit where you no longer need to communicate in a situation because you trust where the other guy is going to be, because you've done it 400 times before. You can't simply re-invent that overnight. For that matter, trying to predict locker room chemistry is a fool's game. I mean, even looking back on school as a good example: can you really expect to get 30 people together in a room and have everyone like each other? Pretty damn unlikely. The same applies in sports.

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33 minutes ago, Death From Above said:

 

I think this is a good point. How much of that stuff is just the kind of understanding you build by playing with someone long enough to know their tendencies? The kind of shit where you no longer need to communicate in a situation because you trust where the other guy is going to be, because you've done it 400 times before. You can't simply re-invent that overnight. For that matter, trying to predict locker room chemistry is a fool's game. I mean, even looking back on school as a good example: can you really expect to get 30 people together in a room and have everyone like each other? Pretty damn unlikely. The same applies in sports.

This is where the analytics can often fail.  The human factor of how one player complements another player is impossible to quantify.  

A similar analogy can be drawn to an offensive line in football.  You want stability.  You want to know what the person next to you will do and react accordingly.  One player getting injured can throw an entire line out of whack when uncertainty is introduced.

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Oh Loilers

Oilers have traded Taylor Hall to NJ for Adam Larsson


Peter Chiarelli has now traded the #1 and #2 picks in the 2010 Draft

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That seems like an awful deal for Edmonton.

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@downgoesbrown

This is one of those fantasy trades where everyone emails the commish, there's a unanimous veto, and both GMs get thrown out of the league.

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If the Oilers wanted a young defenseman that badly, why didn't they draft one on Friday night?

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I now 100% believe that Lucic is getting a huge deal from the Oilers.

 

EDIT: SUBBAN FOR WEBER?! What is going on around here?

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Oh man... trading Hall away for an average defenceman who may or may not get better and likely overpaying Lucic. It feels good/strange to see a crappy trade for once and not panic.

Larsson's possession numbers aren't good and he has a whopping 5 es goals in 3500 minutes.

I'd take Hall's contract all day. I wonder how awful the offers for RNH and Eberle must've been...

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Subban for Weber?  WTF?????

In terms of Hall to NJ.  Hall has one of the worst contracts in the NHL.  $6 million in each of the next 4 years for a one zone player.  People overrate him.  

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And now Stamkos is re-signing in Tampa.

This day has been an elaborate practical joke that is so vast, and so all consuming, that I require Bob McKenzie to unmask as Andy Kaufman to make the slightest goddamn sense out of it.

I need time to digest this but that Hall trade is absolutely embarrassing. I am legitimately in shock at the lack of a return.

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I didn't see Stamkos staying in Tampa. Detroit is hooped. 

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The Hall trade makes sense in that they get a defenseman on a more reasonable contract in return.

 

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Don't worry, Andrew Ladd is still out there. And someone still has to make a ridiculous offer sheet to Jacob Trouba.

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1 minute ago, Oyaji said:

I didn't see Stamkos staying in Tampa. Detroit is hooped. 

Tampa is the legit favorite in the East next year.

 

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I saw someone say Hall trade makes more sense if they have Lucic deal done. 

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5 minutes ago, odessasteps said:

I saw someone say Hall trade makes more sense if they have Lucic deal done. 

Edmonton was looking to move Hall, RNH, and Yak.  Maybe Eberle.  They only save $2 million in cap space.  

As a friend pointed out on Twitter, wingers are of much less value than defense. 

Edmonton's contracts are not worth that much on the trade market.

 

If you are a NHL GM, you have to look at the cap hits of Hall, Yak, and RNH and ask yourself if you want THAT mess on your cap.

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The only way I see Hall's contract hurting his team is if he doesn't play at least 65 games a season. He's a fantastic player and is well worth $6 million if he's playing. It was Eberle who was picked by the media as the lazy guy that needed to go. He was pretty clearly coasting without the puck. I'm guessing they couldn't get anything of value for him so they moved Hall instead. Larsson as of right now is slightly better than replacement level and even if he does turn it around, it's unlikely he'll have much upside offensively.

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