Jump to content
DVDVR Message Board

2016 NCAAF: WEEK 11


Dolfan in NYC

Recommended Posts

Michigan's offense was terrible today. No way around it.

And even then, all they needed was to move the ball a bit with under two minutes. They got about a yard and punted.

That facemask call was fucking bullshit though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, EVA said:

The Top 7 teams are favored by a combined 170 points today.  The lowest spread is Washington -8.

Looking like a good day to go outside while your team isn't playing.

And the Mike Francessa Award for prognostication gone horribly wrong goes to... ;-)

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think Clemson will still be in the top 4. If Michigan had won, I'd have said "Bama, Michigan, OSU, Clemson" easily.

Michigan losing mucks things up, because I think Clemson only dropping to 3 would be controversial...but ranking Louisville over Clemson would also be controversial.  Will be interesting to see which option they choose.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: the facemask call

I know that's a tough call to swallow, BUT, while it's easy to look at it in high-def super slow-mo and say, "Obviously he didn't grab the facemask," its a different story at game speed.  And when you see a guy rake his hand across the ballcarrier's face and the guy's head turns even just a little bit...I can't fault the ref for interpreting it as a foul.  Even if it really wasn't.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So here's a fun possibility:

Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State are now tied at 6-1 in their division.  If Penn State wins out and Ohio State beats Michigan...PSU goes to the title game.  I'd like to see the committee have to deal with that.

Penn State's remaining schedule: terrible Rutgers, terrible Michigan State.  This is a very real possibility.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, EVA said:

So here's a fun possibility:

Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State are now tied at 6-1 in their division.  If Penn State wins out and Ohio State beats Michigan...PSU goes to the title game.  I'd like to see the committee have to deal with that.

Penn State's remaining schedule: terrible Rutgers, terrible Michigan State.  This is a very real possibility.

Oh yeah, this was Ohio State and Wisconsin's worst scenario.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, EVA said:

So here's a fun possibility:

Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State are now tied at 6-1 in their division.  If Penn State wins out and Ohio State beats Michigan...PSU goes to the title game.  I'd like to see the committee have to deal with that.

Penn State's remaining schedule: terrible Rutgers, terrible Michigan State.  This is a very real possibility.

On the other hand it would be all the proof atheists need to show that there is no God.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The real winner today, though, may have been the previously left-for-dead Big 12.  The Pac-12 is weak this year, and I don't think simply winning out will assure Washington a playoff spot.  And that leaves the door open for the B12 to make a case for itself.

After all this chaos, Oklahoma will move into the Top 10, while OK State and West Virginia will be just outside it.  Oklahoma will play both of them to end the season, which would be quality wins in their favor.  WVU still has only 1 loss.  Either one of them could win out and be a factor at the end of the season.  They'd need help, but once the 4 Big 10 teams ahead of them sort themselves out, and maybe we see another upset or two...they're right where they need to be to sneak in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

More craziness to consider: Alabama could lose the SEC championship game and still make the playoffs.

If they win out and go into that final weekend ranked #1, there is no way they drop out of the top 4, not with zero undefeated teams of consequence left to arbitrarily force them down the board.  And unless Florida gets hot and beats LSU and FSU in back to back weeks going into the game, it's highly unlikely that whichever dog the SEC East serves up will even be a Top 15 team.  So the committee won't have to deal with the potential conflict of putting Bama in over the SEC champ, because the SEC champ would clearly not be deserving of the spot.

Just imagine...#1 Alabama losing to 9-3 Tennessee in the SEC championship while #2 Ohio State sits idle at home on championship Saturday (while Wisconsin beats Penn State for the B1G title).  SORT THAT OUT.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh, and you know who else loves chaos?  MOTHERFUCKING PIRATES.

Washington State doesn't stand to immediately gain much ground from today's shakedown, but it does clear a path for them.  And with their remaining games against Colorado, Washington, and a potential P12 title matchup against either USC or Utah giving them the opportunity to earn 3-straight wins over Top 15 teams, they're a legit threat to make a darkhorse charge from the rear down the home stretch.

Yes, that season opening loss to Eastern Washington is ugly, and it would be controversial if/when they jump Boise (who is their other loss), but win out and they'll end the year on an 11-game win streak with a major conference title to their credit and lots of talk about being "the hottest team in the country."  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wisconsin really needed an unbeaten Michigan or at least a once beaten, top 4 Ohio State coming off a win over unbeaten Michigan to have a chance I think. Beating a good two loss Penn State I don't think can be enough, barring even more craziness.

Michigan had only played one game out of state this year before tonight, and that was Rutgers. I was never nearly as confident as a lot of people have been about this team, but it's maddening how missed wide open deep passes killed them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So, scenarios.

Bama wins and they are in, obviously. Even with a loss they have an excellent chance.

Michigan wins out, and I'm pretty positive they're in.

Clemson is probably in if they win out.

---------

If they both win out, Washington vs West Virginia could be an interesting debate.

Ohio State is probably in if they win out, but if Bama is 13-0 conference champs, Clemson and Washington are both 12-1 conference champs, West Virginia are 11-1 conference champs, and let's just say Penn State are 11-2 conference champs... Well, we'll find out if a conference title and/or "13th data point" actually matter..

Louisville is the team that keeps coming up "screwed" in my mind if everyone else keeps winning. I think they might pass Clemson this week, but if it finishes Clemson 12-1 ACC champs and Louisville 11-1 second place in the division, with Clemson winning the head to head, I can't see Louisville getting the nod. I can't see them beating out a potential 12-1 Michigan either. Washington or West Virginia, maybe, but, again, do conference title really matter? And if Ohio State wins out? I think if it's two 11-1 teams who didn't win their divisions, Ohio State will have the better resume with wins against Oklahoma, Michigan, and possible B1G champion Wisconsin. The FSU win is nice, but Houston isn't gonna help much.

Wisconsin... I think the celebration in Madison is misguided. I think they're only shot at the playoffs got slammed shut by Iowa last night. 11-2 Big Ten champs that just knocked off either undefeated, top three Michigan or once beaten top three Ohio State have a real serious argument to be number four, even over a one loss team that didn't play a schedule like Wisconsin's. Now their most likely scenario is playing an already twice beaten Penn State while a Buckeyes team Wisconsin already lost to and has a better record sits at home. Bare minimum, they absolutely have to have Michigan win The Game. But I don't see a reasonable path to the playoff for them.

Then there's the "if Alabama loses to Florida/Tennessee" scenario. They absolutely can still get in, unless they get shellacked. Now, if they lose to what would end up 11-2 Florida, it could be a tough call. Depends on everyone else, but you can draw a totally plausible map where Bama stays home. 12-1 Michigan beats Wisconsin again. West Virginia wins out. Washington wins out and avenges the USC loss. Clemson and Louisville both win out. That's a nightmare scenario for the committee. 12-1 Bama without a conference title, one loss champions in all four other power five, plus having to deal with Louisville and a potentially red-hot Florida team that just beat Alabama. I wouldn't want to sort that mess out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...