AEW - MAY 2023

[Dolphman 3000]

6 minutes ago, Niners Fan in CT said:

Did WCW top out at 41,000 just because of the market?  Atlanta?  Was it because of short notice?  It feels like all metrics would suggest that WCW should have been able to have sold out stadium shows.   WWF had done it.  Some Japanese promotions had done it.  

They did start running regular stadium shows in 1998

https://www.prowrestlinghistory.com/supercards/usa/wcw/stadium.html

Problem was their follow-up show at Georgia Dome drew similarly well....but was headlined by the Fingerpoke of Doom. Business fell off a cliff right after.

Edited May 5, 2023 by Dolphman 3000

[Kevin Wilson]

9 minutes ago, Niners Fan in CT said:

Someone take me through how this happened.  I'm 5-years old.  So WCW did 41,000 for Goldberg vs. Hogan and they were red hot. They were selling out arenas, the TV ratings were bonkers, the merchandise was flying off the shelves.  Everyone had an nWo t-shirt.  

Obviously AEW in the U.S. isn't as hot as WCW once was. I know ratings don't mean everything, a lot has changed but everyone knew people who were watching WCW during that period. They were household names. 

Did WCW top out at 41,000 just because of the market?  Atlanta?  Was it because of short notice?  It feels like all metrics would suggest that WCW should have been able to have sold out stadium shows.   WWF had done it.  Some Japanese promotions had done it.  

I think one big factor that I (and likely others) didn't take into account is just how hungry UK apparently is for a big wrestling event. I am not sure what AEW could get crowd-wise in the US in a stadium setting (and sold as the "biggest show of the year") but I doubt it would sniff the Goldberg/Hogan event. I think this event is just the perfect storm.

I always wondered why WCW didn't run 50K+ stadiums during the height of nWo, you'd think Hogan vs. Sting could have put on a pretty good attendance. I just always figured they crunched the numbers and figured it wasn't worth it. But it does make for an interesting statistic that AEW's biggest event will outdraw any single event by WCW, even at a fraction of the popularity.

[Matt D]

3 minutes ago, Kevin Wilson said:

I think one big factor that I (and likely others) didn't take into account is just how hungry UK apparently is for a big wrestling event.

One huge aspect of wrestling forever, but especially now, is that people want to feel like they're apart of something special, something that they can only see. It's part of what drove the early NXT and AEW sales. It drives Manias. It drives the Royal Rumble sales, the idea that you're part of Mania season and that you might see some special surprise entrants. It's not all that different from seeing Dusty finally win the NWA title or finally get to get revenge on his opponent. The idea that you're part of the show, that you get to chant, that you get to cheer, that you're included and other people are not. This is the chance for the UK fans (and the European fans) to feel like they're special, like they're part of this amazing moment. The longer you starve them of that, the more they'll jump at it.

[Elsalvajeloco]

WCW ran the SuperDome in early 1997 cause that's where DDP's watershed moment came when he hit the Diamond Cutter on Hall and faked out joining the NWO.

The Atlanta thing is kinda a misnomer because you have to remember that the Omni was shut down somewhere around then and Philips Arena wasn't completed yet. So if you wanted to run Atlanta proper, your only option was the Georgia Dome really. Georgia Tech has an indoor arena, but I don't think they have ever done a wrestling show there. If they did, it wasn't many. Center Stage is way, way too small.

17 minutes ago, Kevin Wilson said:

I always wondered why WCW didn't run 50K+ stadiums during the height of nWo, you'd think Hogan vs. Sting could have put on a pretty good attendance. I just always figured they crunched the numbers and figured it wasn't worth it. But it does make for an interesting statistic that AEW's biggest event will outdraw any single event by WCW, even at a fraction of the popularity.

As far as why they chose to never to do more stadium shows, according to Bischoff, they usually did their schedule a year out. Plus, they loved running non union venues because it was much easier for them and cheaper. That's why Tupelo (where AEW is running a house show at soon) got multiple WCW PPVs. So the reason they started doing more stadium shows and more shows outside of the NWA/WCW "strongholds" in 1998 is because of the success they had in 1997. The venues they booked in 1997 were based on their business from 1996.  Had 1999 been a real banner year, they would have continued on. 

17 minutes ago, Kevin Wilson said:

I think one big factor that I (and likely others) didn't take into account is just how hungry UK apparently is for a big wrestling event. I am not sure what AEW could get crowd-wise in the US in a stadium setting (and sold as the "biggest show of the year") but I doubt it would sniff the Goldberg/Hogan event. I think this event is just the perfect storm.

Doesn't Clash at the Castle count?

That again begs the question why WWE chose the O2 Arena London for MITB and not a stadium. 

[Kevin Wilson]

1 minute ago, Elsalvajeloco said:

Doesn't Clash at the Castle count?

That again begs the question why WWE chose the O2 Arena London for MITB and not a stadium. 

It does but it seems it wasn't enough for them. But as to your second point, someone at WWE is definitely getting yelled at right now for not thinking bigger in the UK and either running bigger places or more often.

[Casey]

Around September 2021, I really do believe that AEW could have ran a US stadium show and sold it out.

There’s probably an alternative timeline where Punk’s return match and Danielson/Omega is on the same card and sells out some stadium in America.

[Niners Fan in CT]

Clash at the Castle was sold as a huge deal... first time they had run a proper "big show" in the UK since 1992 and I believe it topped out at around 55000, right?  It wasn't a complete sell out of the stadium in Wales.  It was a big number though.  

So, I don't think it's just that they were starved for a big wrestling show.  Maybe European fans just identify more with the style of wrestling they expect to witness from AEW? 

[Kevin Wilson]

4 minutes ago, Niners Fan in CT said:

Clash at the Castle was sold as a huge deal... first time they had run a proper "big show" in the UK since 1992 and I believe it topped out at around 55000, right?  It wasn't a complete sell out of the stadium in Wales.  It was a big number though.  

WrestleTix had it at ~62.5K sold out of 67.5K available, but tickets were also more expensive. They could have sold out at a lower price point I am sure. I think AEW is doing it right so I am not criticizing having cheaper tickets to get more fans in the building, but its only fair to mention in comparison.

[Elsalvajeloco]

2 minutes ago, Casey said:

Around September 2021, I really do believe that AEW could have ran a US stadium show and sold it out.

There’s probably an alternative timeline where Punk’s return match and Danielson/Omega is on the same card and sells out some stadium in America.

Maybe? I probably would have went pre pandemic but whatever. 

I went into this about a month or so before the Wembley show was announced, but the gist was you got to focus on consistent arena business before you move onto the stadiums. In the United States, it's just a much different animal because the core and damn near everything else related to your business is there. Plus, the United States is basically several small countries making up one giant country. In addition, you have so many cities that seem tempting to run (Los Angeles, NYC, Miami, Las Vegas, etc.) but you will absolutely lose your shirt if the interest isn't piqued at the right time. 

People want companies to have their own WrestleMania but folks have to remember the first WrestleMania was at the venue they were already doing business in. The 2nd one at three different locales didn't do as well. The third one was largely anchored on a what was and still is a once in a lifetime, absolutely perfectly booked program. The fourth and fifth ones were built on casino buys with a bunch of non fans at a venue that technically wasn't that big. 

Since the United States is basically an oddity, it's tough to just imagine doing well just based on implied momentum. It's best to continue to build (or regain) momentum because you will know when the right time is to have that big blockbuster event. 

[Dolphman 3000]

10 minutes ago, Elsalvajeloco said:

It's best to continue to build (or regain) momentum because you will know when the right time is to have that big blockbuster event. 

Sting's retirement show could probably fill a US stadium if you load up the undercard with Goldberg and more WCW nostalgia

Edited May 5, 2023 by Dolphman 3000

[Niners Fan in CT]

I read that WrestleMania IV and V the tickets were basically bought by the casinos to get people in Atlantic City and the gates were pretty big because the tickets were so marked up. WrestleMania V did a big buy rate as well off the back of the Mega Powers exploding. 

[Elsalvajeloco]

2 minutes ago, Dolphman 3000 said:

Sting's retirement show could probably fill Georgia Dome if you load up the undercard with Goldberg and more WCW nostalgia

Hell, State Farm Arena maybe. I love Sting as much as the next avid fan but he ain't our form of Inoki or Onita. Pro wrestling has abused the retirement well so much that they ain't much in that well anymore. It either has to be at WrestleMania or SummerSlam or adjacent to one of those tentpole events like what Conrad Thompson did. Otherwise, it ain't going to be that big. Plus, that nostalgia bug isn't the best indicator for business. We're two decades removed from WCW and two and a half decades removed from the peak. It's ran its course. 

If AEW does do a stateside stadium show, the marquee match is going to be built around two or more people that are going to be present or future of the promotion. Now the Sting (and/or Goldberg) retirement could be a piece of the undercard, but it's not going to leverage the show beyond being a piece of the undercard. It can still be important but it's not the topline. 

 

[matt925]

I think it means if aew had run stadiums for the first shows in Chicago, Toronto, and LA they would have been huge. But it seems like it only works the first time you go to a major worldwide city. If wcw announced starrcade 98 at wembley that probably would’ve been a massive show as well. And they could’ve done sky dome with Bret. And if wwe had simply done a real ppv show at wembley years ago it would be like this as well. 

Edited May 5, 2023 by matt925

[A_K]

1 hour ago, Niners Fan in CT said:

Someone take me through how this happened.  I'm 5-years old.  So WCW did 41,000 for Goldberg vs. Hogan and they were red hot. They were selling out arenas, the TV ratings were bonkers, the merchandise was flying off the shelves.  Everyone had an nWo t-shirt.  

Obviously AEW in the U.S. isn't as hot as WCW once was. I know ratings don't mean everything, a lot has changed but everyone knew people who were watching WCW during that period. They were household names. 

Did WCW top out at 41,000 just because of the market?  Atlanta?  Was it because of short notice?  It feels like all metrics would suggest that WCW should have been able to have sold out stadium shows.   WWF had done it.  Some Japanese promotions had done it.  

WCW sold 25k tickets touring Australia during the absolute trough of 'fall 2000. Australia has around a third the population of the UK. As far as I recall there was no PPV associated (Nitro / house).

To be honest I'm not too surprised how well this has sold: I'm sure there is some Khan-papering to an extent (actual attendance will be interesting vs supposed sales), but that said the UK is a population of almost 70 million people, all of whom are only 6 hours max. away from London. They extremely rarely get PW events, and there are enough legacy-Fed names involved that casual Fed fans will be in as well as the Dubya hardcores. PW fans can be a rabid bunch. I'm more curious how they marketed this thing. They've always had very strong production values (that was the huge standout vs. the respective TNA upstart period), interested if this extends to foreign marketing. Clearly they've done extremely well.

Looking back to WCW, that 41k was in the context of a company who had been touring throughout the country week-to-week. That Atlanta show was not a novelty-entry into a new territory as it were. AEW domestic attendances have largely been in a declining trend (some notable PPV/Special Events aside) -- Kia Forum + Arthur Ashe for example both down 30% YOY on previous appearances. A 1 off in a territory that is smaller than Michigan but w/ 7x the population cannot be comparable w/ touring domestic market state-to-state week after week.

Edited May 5, 2023 by A_K

[Elsalvajeloco]

4 minutes ago, A_K said:

To be honest I'm not too surprised how well this has sold: 

Well, to have you tell it, shit you would think AEW is 1990/91 World Class with Killer Tim Brooks regularly outselling them at a titty bar while they're struggling to get 300 at the Sportatorium.

EVERYONE should be surprised. There is NO precedent for this. Bob Arum is almost 100 years old with 50+ plus years of high level promoting experience. He ain't ever ran card ANYWHERE where he sold 6,000 (let alone 60,000) tickets with no card announced.

[matt925]

I figured it would do 35-40k and was surprised at the announcement. And now here we are. 

[A_K]

19 minutes ago, Elsalvajeloco said:

Well, to have you tell it, shit you would think AEW is 1990/91 World Class with Killer Tim Brooks regularly outselling them at a titty bar while they're struggling to get 300 at the Sportatorium.

EVERYONE should be surprised. There is NO precedent for this. Bob Arum is almost 100 years old with 50+ plus years of high level promoting experience. He ain't ever ran card ANYWHERE where he sold 6,000 (let alone 60,000) tickets with no card announced.

AEW is at present a declining domestic creative property as measured over an 18 month period, with heavily receding domestic viewership and receding attendance figures. That is simply statistical fact. Once one accepts that fact, they can try to divine the reasons for this decline. My interpretation is because it is terribly scripted (from the Four Pillars to simply the comedic optics of having Adam Cole "restrained" by average Joe looking security guards all of whom tower over him, to simply take two instances from the recent episode) and inauthentically a 'meritocracy'. Others can draw their own conclusions, of course.

Joshua / Povetkin sold 90k tickets. Fury / Whyte sold 90k tickets. Joshua / Takam sold 80k tickets. None of these were "mega fights". Clash at the Castle did c. 65k sales at higher prices in a city that has 5% the population of London and is far harder to travel to. So, yes, there are precedents. AEW doing very well to market and sell in a foreign market is not incompatible with a demonstrable creative + domestic malaise. This does not at all diminish AEW's achievement in the UK, as Impact for example never approached this level of ambition / execution, but it is not wholly unexpected (imo).

Edited May 5, 2023 by A_K

[Elsalvajeloco]

6 minutes ago, A_K said:

Joshua / Povetkin sold 90k tickets. Fury / Whyte sold 90k tickets. Joshua / Takam sold 80k tickets. None of these were "mega fights". 

Are you insane? ALL OF THOSE are megafights. Dude, the UK went several decades without a HW champ. Then, they went another several years without heavyweight champion when Lennox Lewis retired.

Dude, are you ill?

Also, those are not wrestling events. Moreover, those were announced with the two of the largest domestic draws in UK boxing history.

Name one match on the AEW Wembley card that's a draw.

[A_K]

12 minutes ago, Elsalvajeloco said:

Are you insane? ALL OF THOSE are megafights. Dude, the UK went several decades without a HW champ. Then, they went another several years without heavyweight champion.

Dude, are you ill?

Absolutely none of those were mega fights. If you think Carlos Takam who had 3 losses on his record at 37, a 39 year old Kubrat Pulev & a 38 year old Povetkin in their first big title fights merit "mega fight" as journeymen opponents, then I have some magic beans to sell you. Heaven knows what you'd call Bud / Spence, Benavidez / Canelo, Fury / Usyk etc. But I digress - this is an AEW thread. The statistical facts related to the point are as stated in the initial post.

Edited May 5, 2023 by A_K

[Elsalvajeloco]

Just now, A_K said:

Absolutely none of those were mega fights. If you think Carlos Takam who had 3 losses on his record, a 39 year old Kubrat Pulev & a 38 year old Povetkin in their first big title fights merit "mega fight" as journeymen opponents, then I have some magic beans to sell you.

There were networks having month long bidding wars on these fights. Yes, all these are mega fights you dummy. What the fuck are you talking about?

[A_K]

2 minutes ago, Elsalvajeloco said:

There were networks having month long bidding wars on these fights. Yes, all these are mega fights you dummy. What the fuck are you talking about?

You're a very angry man. As I say, I have some magic beans to sell you. They'll make you more cheerful while you watch your 40 year old Russian titleless journeymen in "mega fights", I promise. Now, enough non-AEW talk.

Edited May 5, 2023 by A_K

[Elsalvajeloco]

Just now, A_K said:

You're a very angry man. As I say, I have some magic beans to sell you. They'll make you more cheerful while you watch your 40 year old Russian titleless journeymen in "mega fights", I promise. Now, enough non-AEW talk.

You are goddamn idiot.

[Dolphman 3000]

For comparison, I went back and looked to see what matches were announced ahead of time at the SummerSlam 1992 press conference. From the 6/15/1992 issue of Wrestling Observer -

Quote

Titan held a press conference in London on Tuesday and announced the top four matches on the show (and this is the real line-up since PPV advertising in the U.S. was sent out confirming this) as being Savage vs. Warrior for the WWF title, Hart vs. British Bulldog for the Intercontinental title, Money Inc. vs. Legion of Doom for the WWF tag team titles and Undertaker vs. Kimala. Since British Bulldog is the most popular of all the WWF wrestlers in Europe, I'd say the odds of a title switch there are excellent. Neither Hogan nor Flair will wrestle on the show. Flair is scheduled to be on the show doing an interview, while Hogan won't be on the show with the word being that he won't return until early 1993. Because the show is being geared toward the European market rather than the U.S. market, Flair not working isn't as significant since his name isn't that big in Europe to begin with. It'll be the first time the WWF has attempted to do a major PPV without Hogan headlining. The expectation is that it will be the lowest buy rate of any major WWF PPV show ever. One official projected the buy rate as low as 1.0 percent, with a $27.50 list price, although 1.5 sounds more realistic since the previous three Summer Slam's have done approximately a 4.8 (for the Zeus match), 3.7 (Hogan-Earthquake) and 2.7 (Savage-Elizabeth wedding). The WWF's interest level in the U.S. is at its lowest point since national expansion, combined with no Hogan and adding in that the show is coming on the heels of the Olympic Games going on PPV (which I think will only have a slight effect) adds up to a not very promising mix. Titan's revenue from the event is still being projected to top Wrestlemania because the live gate is scaled for an all-time record and the company expects to do millions of dollars from the closed-circuit sites in Europe

 

Edited May 5, 2023 by Dolphman 3000

[Infinit]

Next Wednesday is looking STACKED

 

[Elsalvajeloco]

5 minutes ago, Dolphman 3000 said:

For comparison, I went back and looked to see what matches were announced ahead of time at the Summer Slam 1992 press conference. From the 6/15/1992 issue of Wrestling Observer -

 

They had pretty much the entire card announced by late June if you go back and watched the Superstars and the other syndicated shows. The only thing that wasn't clear was if Flair was going to have a match and obviously he was there for replacement purposes.