Malaysia Airlines Flight 370

[Craig H]

More theories, less Osama...please.

 

Osama bin Laden? More like, Osama bin Hidin'!

[Burgundy LaRue]

When the idea of a meteor hit the plane suddenly sounds like a decent theory, you know things are officially off the rails.  That there's absolutely nothing out there, and that no one even knows what direction the plane was traveling when it disappeared, is too much.

[Antacular]

A litmus test to see how attached to reality you are is your disposition regarding whether or not they're still alive.

[alan]

wrong thread

Edited March 12, 2014 by alan

[Craig H]

A litmus test to see how attached to reality you are is your disposition regarding whether or not they're still alive.

 

It isn't entirely out of the question though, that these people are still alive. I think as a surviving family member, that's probably all you could latch onto at the moment.

[Pete]

Another thing about no one claiming responsibility: the terrorists themselves probably don't even know what happened. You don't want to come out and say "This was us!" only for it to turn out the passengers over powered the guys and landed in some remote place somewhere and are just waiting to be found.

 

Don't terrorist organizations care about not looking incompetent?

 

At one point during the Iraqi festivities, US soldiers claimed responsibility for killing one of the bigger Al Qaeda muckety-mucks. Their response was that he'd actually killed himself when he mistimed the fuse on his grenade and it went off on his belt. Take that however you like.

[Burgundy LaRue]

Going without access to water for more than 3 days assures death.  Not to mention dealing with possible injuries from a crash, general shock, and being exposed to natural elements that are foreign to most on the plane.

 

It's possible they're alive, but it's a slim chance.

[J.T.]

Yeah, I cannot really buy the whole "terrorists are not claiming responsibility because they want remain anoymous so that they can do it again" logic. 

 

The world is talking about this incident and the attentiion is unpresidented, so the moment to grab your free publicity and wag your finger at the West is now.

 

That and the exploited weaknesses in policy and practice are sure to be stitched together and security will be tight for a while following this incident.  Who knows where or when the next window of opportunity will present itself?  That's the problem with dry run terrorism.  If your plan is found out, you're fucked, and if your practice run is too successful, you maybe fucked in the future.

[Antacular]

 

A litmus test to see how attached to reality you are is your disposition regarding whether or not they're still alive.

 

It isn't entirely out of the question though, that these people are still alive. I think as a surviving family member, that's probably all you could latch onto at the moment.

 

 

No, it is. It's one thing for a surviving family member to hold onto the notion, but from any objective analysis, it's absurd,

 

 

Yeah, I cannot really buy the whole "terrorists are not claiming responsibility because they want remain anoymous so that they can do it again" logic. 

 

The world is talking about this incident and the attentiion is unpresidented, so the moment to grab your free publicity and wag your finger at the West is now.

 

That and the exploited weaknesses in policy and practice are sure to be stitched together and security will be tight for a while following this incident.  Who knows where or when the next window of opportunity will present itself?  That's the problem with dry run terrorism.  If your plan is found out, you're fucked, and if your practice run is too successful, you maybe fucked in the future.

 

I think it's a perfectly acceptable logic. If the plan was for a 9/11-type attack where the plane was to be used as a weapon, the consequences of a successful attack versus simply a downed plane (on account of the planes staff thwarting said plan) are night and day. A successful attack would dwarf the actual implications of an unsuccessful one. I mean, consider all the policy changes that happened in the U.S. as a result of 9/11. Now magnify that by 100x were an attack of that sort were to occur in China (I'm assuming China would be the target due to their regional hostilities).

 

Remember, Bin Laden's goal wasn't simply the death of a ton of Americans, nor the attention it garnered him. He foresaw what would happen as a result of such an attack: He wanted to bankrupt the country. Now, factor in China's fragile economy, already-established police state, and continued discords of social unrest. You think times were rough there after Tiananmen? Imagine the outcome of the Politiburo following our post-9/11 strategy, Chinese-style.

[J.T.]

I think it's a perfectly acceptable logic. If the plan was for a 9/11-type attack where the plane was to be used as a weapon, the consequences of a successful attack versus simply a downed plane (on account of the planes staff thwarting said plan) are night and day. A successful attack would dwarf the actual implications of an unsuccessful one..

 

Yes, but a failed rehersal that tips everyone off to what your're doing nearly completely negates any future attempt at an attack at all, because people and governments are on guard against that sort of thng now more than ever.  Not good if your true goal is more than a mere body count.

 

Bin Ladin never prepared for the 9/11 attacks by crashing jets into buildings.someplace else.  It was the surprise and the audacity of the initial attack that made it so effective and it had the social and economic secondary order of effects that he desired which were the primary reasons for conducting the attack.. 

 

If this was an attack against China and Malaysia was the staging ground, then the game is up because every major aviation power in the world is going to go up Malaysia's ass to make sure this sort of thing never happens again.  At least not there it won't.  Malaysian airline policy and airports will be under a microscope for years to come.

 

Now it's back to the drawing board for our shadowy group and years of waiting in say Thailand, testing security response times, infiltrating the work staff, and getting handle of airport procedures until you're ready to crash an airplane into the Forbidden City.

 

The only advantage of not claming responsibility would be to retain anonymity until you're ready to try again, but we're talking about a group targeting the People's Republic of China.  MSS probably knows who these guys are already.  if it is one thing they are good at, it is sniffing out a dissident and if MSS ever finds them, they will disappear just as mysteriously as the passengers of that flight did.

[MADCAP]

Now you can help locate the plane:  

 

http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/malaysiaairsar2014/map/21894

[RonL21]

China is now saying their satellites may have found a crash site at sea and apparently they've known since Sunday morning.

[Antacular]

 

I think it's a perfectly acceptable logic. If the plan was for a 9/11-type attack where the plane was to be used as a weapon, the consequences of a successful attack versus simply a downed plane (on account of the planes staff thwarting said plan) are night and day. A successful attack would dwarf the actual implications of an unsuccessful one..

 

Yes, but a failed rehersal that tips everyone off to what your're doing nearly completely negates any future attempt at an attack at all, because people and governments are on guard against that sort of thng now more than ever.  Not good if your true goal is more than a mere body count.

 

 

The element of pure surprise is gone, yes, but merely being on guard doesn't really do much to prevent these types of attacks. Until we have retina scanners or some sort of DNA-based identification for travel (and even then, it will be possible for individuals who have evaded being an associate of a known terrorist group to still conduct such an operation), short of staffing the equivalent of an Air Marshal on every flight, the only realistic alternative is for the passengers and/or crew to do something in the heat of the moment, a la Flight 93.

 

The reason there hasn't been a 9/11 since 9/11 isn't because of increased airport security, spying, and datamining, it's because A) Passengers have realized that they can stand up to the attackers (the Detroit bomber) and B) Because terrorist organizations are recruiting dumber and dumber members (Times Square bomber), the ones that are capable of pulling of another 9/11 are now more concerned with moving up the terrorist corporate ladder and planning suicide attacks, rather than actually carrying out said attacks.

 

 

 

If this was an attack against China and Malaysia was the staging ground, then the game is up because every major aviation power in the world is going to go up Malaysia's ass to make sure this sort of thing never happens again.  At least not there it won't.  Malaysian airline policy and airports will be under a microscope for years to come

 

Doesn't mean they can't attempt a similar attack from ANY OTHER country that has jumbo commercial jets.

 

 

 

The only advantage of not claming responsibility would be to retain anonymity until you're ready to try again, but we're talking about a group targeting the People's Republic of China.  MSS probably knows who these guys are already.  if it is one thing they are good at, it is sniffing out a dissident and if MSS ever finds them, they will disappear just as mysteriously as the passengers of that flight did.

 

Right, but without claiming responsibility, they save face for when their attack is actually successful. Even if a government pins it on a particular group, they can always assert that "we weren't the incompetents behind the failed attack, we're the ones that actually succeeded." After all those bin Laden videos, we both know P.R. is just as important to Al-Qaeda as it is to Coca-Cola. 

[Greggulator]

Well, who would plan such an audacious attack on China? The Uighurs? They're more of a "random maniacs stab people at remote train station" types than planning some sort of crazy attack. I'm not sure if they're ready to crash a jumbo jet into Beijing yet.

[LooseCannon]

What really disappoints me is a lack of crazy right-wing theories about how Obama caused it. Have they mellowed?

[Antacular]

Too busy blaming him for the U.S. losing Ukraine. Whatever that means. 

[offspring515]

Too busy frothing over his Between Two Ferns guest shot.

[Reed]

 

Another thing about no one claiming responsibility: the terrorists themselves probably don't even know what happened. You don't want to come out and say "This was us!" only for it to turn out the passengers over powered the guys and landed in some remote place somewhere and are just waiting to be found.

 

Don't terrorist organizations care about not looking incompetent?

 

At one point during the Iraqi festivities, US soldiers claimed responsibility for killing one of the bigger Al Qaeda muckety-mucks. Their response was that he'd actually killed himself when he mistimed the fuse on his grenade and it went off on his belt. Take that however you like.

 

 

The Ralph Wiggum of terrorists?

[J.T.]

The element of pure surprise is gone, yes, but merely being on guard doesn't really do much to prevent these types of attacks. Until we have retina scanners or some sort of DNA-based identification for travel (and even then, it will be possible for individuals who have evaded being an associate of a known terrorist group to still conduct such an operation), short of staffing the equivalent of an Air Marshal on every flight, the only realistic alternative is for the passengers and/or crew to do something in the heat of the moment, a la Flight 93.

 

The reason there hasn't been a 9/11 since 9/11 isn't because of increased airport security, spying, and datamining, it's because A) Passengers have realized that they can stand up to the attackers (the Detroit bomber) and B) Because terrorist organizations are recruiting dumber and dumber members (Times Square bomber), the ones that are capable of pulling of another 9/11 are now more concerned with moving up the terrorist corporate ladder and planning suicide attacks, rather than actually carrying out said attacks.

 

You forgot that most miltaries of the world are also actively hunting down Al-Qaeda senior leadership.  They are running short on planners as well as operatives.

 

It would actually be disasterous if this turned out to be a terrorist plan against China because they would most certainly crack down on the usual suspects such as the Uighur minority in China. There's already been one major incident involving them and the Hans.  I don't know if I want Beijing having more justification to become even more repressive than usual.  I'm not even sure if that is possible.

 

 

 

Doesn't mean they can't attempt a similar attack from ANY OTHER country that has jumbo commercial jets

 

This would be true if access to jumbo jets were the only part of the equation and certainly there are other factors to consider and (if this were a terroist attack) if Malaysia had the perfect toxic stew of conditions (logistics, sympathizers, etc) then that capability may be gone now if a full-blown investigation kicks off the Pan-Asian War on Terrorism. 

 

Terrorism is all about opportunity as well as violence.  If you'te not making good on your threats, you're losing credibililty and time.  Sooner or later, your plan has to turn into action even if the results are not exactly optimal.

 

Right, but without claiming responsibility, they save face for when their attack is actually successful. Even if a government pins it on a particular group, they can always assert that "we weren't the incompetents behind the failed attack, we're the ones that actually succeeded." After all those bin Laden videos, we both know P.R. is just as important to Al-Qaeda as it is to Coca-Cola.

 

Under the assumption that this incident prima facea wasn't the attack itself.  If it was, it was very successful so why not claim credit for it. 

 

Over two hundred people gone in the blink of an eye and no one knows why and (if this was terrorism) what weapon was used. 

 

If I were a terrorist with, say, access to stolen Syrian chems or the alleged Iraqui bio-weapons or smuggled Bratva plutionium and use either on the passengers of this plane, I'd send a DVD to every major news organization in the world, and I'd still have surprise on my side as no one would know who was with me or where I'd strike next.

[RonL21]

In another strange twist, searchers didn't find a trace of anything when they went searching for the debris found by the Chinese satellite and now, US aviation experts are saying that the plane may have indeed kept flying for at least four more hours, which Malaysia is denying.

[Pete]

Well, who would plan such an audacious attack on China? The Uighurs? They're more of a "random maniacs stab people at remote train station" types than planning some sort of crazy attack. I'm not sure if they're ready to crash a jumbo jet into Beijing yet.

 

Uighurs please.

[Burgundy LaRue]

Apparently, Rolls Royce, who makes the engines for Boeing, has a way to track data emitted from said engines (though they don't track the actual plane) in their London office.  So if the plane did indeed stay in the air for these 4-5 hours, they should be able to confirm that.

[LooseCannon]

Well, who would plan such an audacious attack on China? The Uighurs? They're more of a "random maniacs stab people at remote train station" types than planning some sort of crazy attack. I'm not sure if they're ready to crash a jumbo jet into Beijing yet.

 

Uighurs please.

Fuck, no. If it has to be anti-Chinese terrorists, I'd rather it be Tibetans so I don't have to learn about some other godforsaken dissident minority.

[J.T.]

There have been some physical clashes between Tibet and China, but the influence of the Dalai Lama guides most Tibetan resistance to Chinese authority to more non-violent means.

 

The Uighurs are more likely suspects since it is logical that they would be able to find sympathizers and Al-Qaeda sleeper operatives in Malaysia's majority Muslim population. 

 

TMK, there hasn't been a major airline incident in Malaysia involving terroists since the seventies, but it is fairly well known that the second shoe bomber, Saajid Badat, gave one of the prototype shoe bombs to a Malaysian Al-Qaeda cell while he was training with them; more specifically they were the cell responsible for several bombings in Indonesia.

[LooseCannon]

I'm not saying Tibetans are likely, just that I don't want to have to learn how to pronounce "Uighur".