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2015 NBA Playoffs - QUARTERFINALS


Dolfan in NYC

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Conley's body is all messed up.  I think he still has plantar fasciitis on his foot, facial injuries/surgery, medicine screwed up his stomach causing him to lose weight, and it looked as if he cramped up late in the 4th quarter too.  He still came through for them tonight.

 

I picked the Warriors to win, but I'm definitely rooting for Memphis in this series.  At the very least, I hope they make the Warriors earn their spot.  I can see this series get hostile and physical soon too.

 

Hopefully, Z-Bo continues to punish Draymond in the post.

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Blake slowed down the second half.  Better defense from Houston.  Lots of free throws.

 

The Rockets had to win this game, and they turned it on in the second half. 

 

People might have to stop treating Austin Rivers as a joke.

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What a weird game. At least McHale made an adjustment and figured out that we should double Blake.

Still feel doomed since Cliff Paul comes back next game. Maybe we'll get to shoot 60+ free throws again.

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This could turn into and epic 2nd round if Wall and CP3 can come back. All the series are 1-1.

If Thibs keeps Mirotic in garbage time minutes for the rest of this series he will:

1. Probably lose.

2. Guarantee his firing in the offseason even if they pull it off.

3. Have found a way to make the Bulls fans and the Bulls FO completely agree on something.

Blatt would be playing Niko 30+ minutes right now.

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I was obviously happy with the Cavs game last night. I don't think they are going to shoot lights out again like that on Friday, but I think the game plan itself and the rotations are repeatable.

I think there are going to be two tight games this weekend.

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The Cavs 3 point shooting in that first half was just absurd.  Bulls didn't roll over after that awful start, but that was just too much to overcome*.

 

 

*Especially when your ROY runner up, offensively gifted stretch 4 is riding the bench as your physically drained starting bigs go -19 and -11.

 

 

I wish Jae was around to be all level headed about this, but I'm SOOOOO over Thibs.  Don't let the door hit you on the way out, bud.

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Also, I'm sick of people saying the Rockets only won because X was hurt and didn't play. Rockets are missing two starters. We were missing Dwight and T Jones for most of the year. We still finished with the 2 seed. Maybe we're a halfway decent team this year.

Oh and if I hear that Josh Smith and Dwight played AAU together again I'll cry.

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Another thing I need to point out is the sad decline of Noah.  From DPOY and 1st team all-NBA to this is tough to watch.  He has shown stretches of getting back to his old self throughout the year, but he clearly isn't right physically.  That 'knee scope" over the summer that carried a 3 month recovery time is obviously still bothering him.  

 

It's not just that, though.  He has regressed so much offensively that the Bucks stole two games by simply not guarding him.  His passing is still great, but he doesn't have the speed or athleticism to dunk or finish at the rim at this point.  To go along with that he is having his worst FT shooting season and that has somehow gotten even worse in the playoffs.  He is afraid of taking the ball to the rim even when he has a clear lane because he doesn't want to go to the line.

 

I mean, how are you going to get good looks for Jimmy and Rose with THIS going on:

 

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On the other hand, a 50% hobbled Noah is still the best big man defender on this team so it's a tough spot for Thibs.  I would personally love it if he would start Pau and Taj in game 3 and bring Noah and Mirotic off the bench together.  Those are clearly the Bulls best pairings.

 

Here is to hoping that a summer off will give him enough time to repair his body.  I love watching that dude play.

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The Cavs 3 point shooting in that first half was just absurd.  Bulls didn't roll over after that awful start, but that was just too much to overcome*.

 

 

*Especially when your ROY runner up, offensively gifted stretch 4 is riding the bench as your physically drained starting bigs go -19 and -11.

 

 

I wish Jae was around to be all level headed about this, but I'm SOOOOO over Thibs.  Don't let the door hit you on the way out, bud.

 

The Cavs 3 point shooting in the first half of game 2 was equally absurd to the Bulls 3 point shooting in game one. Mirotic should see more run for you guys, but I don't really know who he guards. He's clearly not going to check Lebron ever. Do you put him on Thompson? Do you go really big and put him on JR? I just don't see either of those things ending in a net postive for the Bulls. 

 

As an aside, who do you want to replace Thibs?

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I have no idea who should replace Thibs.  It's just very obvious that the team can't function long term with the disconnect between Thibs and the FO. They spent the entire summer signing and drafting offensive guys.  Mirotic, Pau, Doug, Brooks.... Not to mention they got their true offensive superstar back from injury.  With Noah hobbled they don't have the personnel to be a defensive team.  They do have the talent to spread the floor, which would make Rose and Jimmy damn near unguardable, but Thibs hasn't been open to that approach.  The lack of total minutes with Rose and Mirotic together in the lineup throughout the season is downright laughable.   

 

Jimmy guards Lebron no matter where he is on the court.  Mirotic coming off the bench when the Cavs go small is a must.  He can guard TT and he has shown a surprising ability to cover the 3, but his offensive game is only truly effective at the 4.  His weakness on defense is help defense and that is obviously a big problem against Lebron.  He has all the tools though and is a surprisingly good shot blocker.  

 

The ideal counter for what the Cavs were doing in game 2 is to play Mirotic when Blatt plays Jones/Miller.  He is superior to those guys on both ends of the court.  Neither can guard him, but they sure as hell can hide on Joakim.  It will be much harder to find a spot for him against a small lineup of Irving, JR, Shump, Lebron and TT, but the negatives of having him chase Shumpert around would be nothing compared to the positive of making Lebron guard him.  

 

I think that Cavs small ball lineup is probably their best possible lineup.  I expect to see a lot of it in game 3. With Pau or Taj at the 5, Lebron is the ONLY player on the court who could guard Mirotic.  It would be impossible to switch Lebron onto Rose or Butler in that scenario

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I would think that the Cavs will move forward with a Kyrie/JR/Lebron/TT/Mozgov starting line up, and when they go small from now on, they would go with Kyrie/JR/Shump/Lebron/TT. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Blatt tries that as the closing line up, and we see James Jones and Delly go back to their regular rotation minutes. Granted, this approach probably means that the Cavs need 7-10 non horrific minutes from Perkins, which is......unlikely. Did you see Dellavadova and Perk try to run the pick and roll last night? It was like watching two people who had never played basketball before. Shockingly, it resulted in a turnover. 

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Pau's defense was just as embarrassing last night.  He found that sweet spot between rotating on defense and boxing out where neither is accomplished.  It was night and day from his defensive effort in game 1.

 

I would be shocked if Kyrie/JR/Shump/Lebron aren't on the floor for the majority of game 3.  TT as well when he is crashing the offensive glass like that, but he has his ineffective moments/games so I could see them going with Moz down the stretch.

 

Shumpert has played great, btw.  Best he has been since that 2-seed Knicks team.  If he can't go because of the groin injury and Jones/Miller are forced into extra minutes again, it would be a fucking travesty if Thibs didn't play Niko again. 

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You don't have to worry about Mozgov down the stretch no matter how well he is playing. Moz is the only player who has a really strict rotation, bordering on a minutes restriction. Something would have to be vastly different for Mozgov to play more than 19-26 minutes. For whatever reason, he doesn't play in the fourth quarter that much. Just one of those things, I guess. I don't think his conditioning is all that great. I was hoping that Blatt would unleash him for 30+ in the playoffs, but it seems he just can't go for long stretches like that. 

 

The TT/Moz combo played sparingly throughout the regular season, but was an offensive powerhouse according to per possession stats. I think that's the horse Blatt will try and ride. I wouldn't be surprised if he stays with it longer in game 3 because Thompson was benched early after two dumb fouls. 

 

Shumpert has been a revelation in this series. I'm happy he came back in after the injury. It'll be interesting to see how effective he is moving forward. His shot has been straky all year though, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him not hit some of those threes. I've been really encouraged at how aggressive he has been so far though. Both he and JR fall in love with that 18 foot step back (also known as the Dion Waiters special). 

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Another thing I need to point out is the sad decline of Noah.  From DPOY and 1st team all-NBA to this is tough to watch.  He has shown stretches of getting back to his old self throughout the year, but he clearly isn't right physically.  That 'knee scope" over the summer that carried a 3 month recovery time is obviously still bothering him.  

His regular season numbers were still pretty great. A -5.2% impact on the shooting percentage of the player he guarded. That hasn't been the case in the playoffs like you said. Especially around the rim. Just doesn't get back as fast anymore. Half the shot attempts he is guarding per game are greater than 15 feet. Victim of the teams having more shooting bigs. Since moving Gasol too much isn't really an option. Gasol has done a okay job defending his space but that space is far too limited. Not surprising that the Bulls best defensive lineups are the ones with Noah and Gibson on the floor. Gasol is defending an average of 9.2 shots per game 10 feet or closer. Noah is at only 5. That will have to be addressed next year unless they want to accelerate Noah's physical decline.

 

Jimmy Butler recently said he focused too much on offense this year. He was right his defensive numbers weren't good at all. +3.8% impact on shooting percentage. He has flipped the switch in the playoffs though. Right now at -11.2%.

 

I really like the lineup of Noah, Gibson, Snell, Butler, Rose. Wish they would use it more.

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