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Posted

The official playoff rankings come out next Tuesday (LIVE ON ESPN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ugh)  They will be remarkably similar to the AP vote, so don't get your hopes up

 

RANKINGZ~

1. Four Weeks Away From Not Being On This List

2. Thirty More Lashes In Hell For Bowden

3. You Beat Bama, You're Okay By Me

4. Oh COME ON.   Not again.

5. Okay, Enough of this SEC Bullshit

 

ESPN is falling all over themselves to say how the committee will be deciding it based on super-secret criteria that no one knows (but is, in fact "looking at the rankings"). 

 

 

Posted

Georgia certainly looks like they're rounding into form, but it hasn't been against great competition. I think when they run into someone who won't let them run all day, they won't look nearly as good.

I can't get over how easy the rest of Mississippi State's schedule is. They're basically playing 2 games between now and the championship game: @Bama and @Ole Miss. Very tough games for sure, especially with how dominant Bama has been at home, but that's it. They drew Vandy and Kentucky out of the East this year, and then they have the standard cupcake homecoming game.

Interestingly, one of the SEC tiebreakers is combined record of non-divisional opponents. It would be wild if Mississippi State or Ole Miss (Vandy and Tennessee) had their cinderella seasons cut short because they got a crappy draw (which is usually what you WANT, of course) in their cross-divisional schedule.

Posted

I still think it's pretty likely we have two SEC teams in the playoff. Two out of Auburn/Alabama/Mississippi St./Ole Miss/Georgia and then probably Florida St. and Notre Dame if they finish with one loss.

Posted

I think an argument could be made for Oregon taking the second SEC slot because the committee wont want to deal with the fight over a one loss team that didnt make there championship game vs a team that won it.

Posted

Conference champions with one loss (especially those from a conference with a title game) will get into the four team playoff before a two-loss SEC team. It looks like the Big 12 is going to eat itself up.

 

Major conference teams with 1 loss or less:

 

ACC - FSU (0), Duke (1) - Duke needs a minor miracle to stay at 1 loss, and a major miracle to get into the playoff.

 

Big 12 - Kansas State, TCU, Baylor (all have 1 loss). KSU still plays TCU and Baylor. Baylor has Oklahoma ahead of them as well. I predict the entire conference ends up with minimum two losses.

 

Big 10 - Michigan State, Ohio State, Minnesota, Nebraska (all with one loss). MSU and OSU still play, as do Minn/Neb. I think whoever wins MSU/OSU ends the regular season with one loss, and if they win the title game, they are in.

 

Pac 12 - Oregon, Arizona State, Arizona, Utah (all with one loss). I think Oregon is the team in this group with the best shot to end up with only one loss, provided they don't execute their yearly fuck up against Stanford. ASU, Arizona and Utah all still play one another, I believe.

 

SEC - State of Mississippi (zero losses combined), Georgia, Alabama, Auburn (one loss each). The western division teams will pin losses on one another, and Georgia still has Auburn on the schedule, which could knock them down to two losses.

 

Notre Dame (one loss). Right now, their resume is a bit weak, with Stanford as their best win, but upcoming road games against Arizona State and Southern Cal would boost their resume big time.

 

My final four predictions: Florida State*, Oregon, Michigan State, Mississippi State.

 

* = assuming Winston plays the rest of the season

Posted

If Michigan State wins out, they'll probably get a slot.

 

Oh, Brian.  I enjoy your idealism.  But you know how Ohio State loves to piss us off.

Posted

I think Sparty (I am a Sparty fan, but where's my MPH MSU? I'm still waiting on that conferral...)  might get jobbed even if they win out depending on how everything else shakes out. I think they are in good shape cause the SEC West teams could hand out loses to each other, the Big 12 is almost dead in the water as far as getting a spot, and the Pac 12 has been very unpredictable. BUT if Minnesota falls on their face and gets another loss or two before the B1G championship game (or if nebraska sneaks into the championship game) then it's possible we'll have some good ole fashion NCAA fuckery with a "well they didn't have many quality wins, they only had to beat a 2 loss Minnesota team lets give their spot to (insert SEC West team that finished 2nd) cause SEC MOTHERFUCKERS" type situation.

Posted

Oh yeah.  Sadly, as an avowed OSU HATA!!! I kinda feel sorry for Michigan State, since they have to run the table AND THEN HAVE TO stomp whoever they might play in the Big 10+ title game (probably, not a big deal given that whoever makes it out of the West will be putrid) in order to get any consideration for the playoffs.  And even then, I can see Michigan State getting screwed because...SEC!  THE BIG 10+ SUCKS!!!!

 

Whereas I can see if OSU gets by Michigan State and running the table (no big deal for them to run the table if they get past Sparty since the Ohio State schedule is laughable) and even narrowly winning the Big 10+ title game, will probably easily get an invite since...OHIO STATE TRAVELS WELL!!!!  THAT VIRGINIA TECH LOSS MEANS NOTHING!!!!

 

And I have already heard far too many RUMBLINGS~!!!! the past couple of days that Ohio State is for real since they've won their last 4 games by scoring 50+ points.  So I am prepared.  Then again, I really want to see Ohio State curbstomped by an SEC team so it really would not break my heart too terribly if they made it to the playoffs.

 

That said, I don't see how Ohio State beats Michigan State at Lansing.

Posted

Jobbed? You're kidding, right? They lost by 20 points... So no way they should get in over Oregon. The 2nd place SEC West team will have at least 1 win over a top 10 opponent, if not more. OSU would be that win for MIch St, but the rest of their schedule is not impressive.

This anti-SEC West propaganda is getting ridiculous. They didn't lose to a non intra-division opponent until this past week. Look at the B1G's record vs. P5 teams... Not so good.

  • Like 1
Posted

LSU is overrated just looking at their schedule.  The same goes for Texas A&M.  Both have no reason being ranked or getting votes.

 

Miss. St. should lose two of their real games.  I have seen harder pillows than their schedule.

 

Alabama will lose another game.  I am not impressed by their schedule this year.

 

Auburn might be the best team but will get ground up by their schedule.

  • Like 2
Posted

I think Sparty (I am a Sparty fan, but where's my MPH MSU? I'm still waiting on that conferral...)  might get jobbed even if they win out depending on how everything else shakes out. I think they are in good shape cause the SEC West teams could hand out loses to each other, the Big 12 is almost dead in the water as far as getting a spot, and the Pac 12 has been very unpredictable. BUT if Minnesota falls on their face and gets another loss or two before the B1G championship game (or if nebraska sneaks into the championship game) then it's possible we'll have some good ole fashion NCAA fuckery with a "well they didn't have many quality wins, they only had to beat a 2 loss Minnesota team lets give their spot to (insert SEC West team that finished 2nd) cause SEC MOTHERFUCKERS" type situation.

And I swear if that happens I'm pointing those same people to ND schedule

Posted

Look, Texas A&M isn't as good as everyone made them out to be, but damn, they just played 3 top 5 teams in consecutive weaks, two of which were on the road. Not many teams in the country are going to come out of that stretch of games looking good. You could tell the Aggs were just mentally and physically whipped from that grind. Once Bama got up big, they were just looking to get to the bye week so they could stop getting their brains beaten in for a damn minute.

Posted

You still have to win the game and they agreed to the schedule so no whining about schedules.

 

I am sure those wins over Lamar, Rice, SMU, and Arkansas were mentally draining.

 

Do we consider South Carolina a quality win?

  • Like 1
Posted

You still have to win the game and they agreed to the schedule so no whining about schedules.

I am sure those wins over Lamar, Rice, SMU, and Arkansas were mentally draining.

Do we consider South Carolina a quality win?

And that's the biggest problem I have with a tournament being set up based at all on strength of schedule when you beat a team matters. Not where they are at the end.

Posted

I don't think it's likely the SEC escapes with two teams with 1 loss or less, so I don't think they get two teams.

 

If they do have two 1 loss teams (or if one of the Mississippi teams goes undefeated, and somebody else only has one loss) especially both in the West, then they do probably get a second slot.  But I don't, right now, see it happening.  Too many good teams, too much of a meat-grinder of a schedule (again, especially in the west.)  Which doesn't mean they definitely wouldn't get a second spot, but they'd need a lack of one-loss Power Five conference champions

 

I'm guessing, right now, Florida State (obvious Winston caveats apply) and the SEC Champion as locks, with a one-loss B1G east champion being more or less a lock (Right now, Sparty more so than Satan), and maybe the PAC-12 champ?

 

If Notre Dame finishes with one loss, and FSU goes undefeated, it becomes very hard to leave the Irish at home....

 

But there's way too much football left to make any really strong predictions.

Posted

You still have to win the game and they agreed to the schedule so no whining about schedules.

 

I am sure those wins over Lamar, Rice, SMU, and Arkansas were mentally draining.

 

Do we consider South Carolina a quality win?

I think you've missed my point. I'm not making excuses for A&M based on their schedule. I'm saying that, just like everybody overreacted to their win over South Carolina, people are now overreacting in the opposite direction based on their hellish schedule the last couple of weeks. They're a good team, just solidly a level or two beneath the last 3 teams they've played, and the fact that they had to play them in such rapid succession - a gauntlet the likes of which on other team in the country has had to play, nor likely will - resulted in them looking much worse than they really are.

Of course, the fact that you're lumping Arkansas in with the likes of Lamar and C-USA fodder makes me wonder if you're actually paying attention all that closely to the SEC. I promise you, there's not a defense in the country that would look forward to having to man up agains the Hogs' rushing attack this year. That's a good, albeit one-dimensional, team that's going to end up 7-5 solely because they had the misfortune to play in the most loaded division in college football.

Posted

Call me when Arkansas beats a good team.

 

Hard to get excited over a team whose wins are Texas Tech, Nicholls State, and Northern Illinois.

 

I look at the NCAA like this, scrap the crap.

 

Teams load their schedules with crap teams that they pay to show up and roll over.  Subtract those games out and you have a very good look at the team.

  • Like 1
Posted

Call me when Arkansas beats a good team.

 

Hard to get excited over a team whose wins are Texas Tech, Nicholls State, and Northern Illinois.

 

I look at the NCAA like this, scrap the crap.

 

Teams load their schedules with crap teams that they pay to show up and roll over.  Subtract those games out and you have a very good look at the team.

Arkansas' other 4 games were against: Top 5 Auburn, Top 5 Alabama, Top 10 Georgia, and A&M who was ranked until this past weekend (and was Top 10 at the time they played). And they were competitive in all of those games, except this past weekend against Georgia. Went tit-for-tat with Auburn until a long weather delay, took A&M to overtime, and of course came within 1-point of Bama.

So because they're not as good as Top 10 teams, they're not a good team? LOL okay.

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