EVA Posted September 7 Posted September 7 Yeah, this is either an ugly rock fight until the end, like a 16-13 type game, or Texas wins it by a good margin. Those are the only possible outcomes. Unless Michigan was pulling a 2023 Bama/USF-style psy-op against Fresno, they don’t have juice on offense to keep up in a shootout. To that end, the biggest thing is Michigan just has to hold onto the ball, whether they’re scoring or not (though scoring would be preferable!). They need to minimize Sark’s opportunities to spin his explosive play roulette wheel, because if you give him enough spins, he’s going to hit on some, and that could be enough to tilt the game out of reach for Michigan. But they only won TOP by like 5 minutes against Fresno, so that’s not an encouraging data point. That said, I stand by everything I said about Texas’ new skill position guys earlier this week. I got big questions about ‘em! I think people may be mistakenly assuming UT is already at a Bama/Georgia “just reload at a natty level every year” stage of program development, when that’s really not, and never been, the case for 99% of programs. Most programs are on a developmental cycle where you’re hoping to peak at the right time for a season, maybe two, then go into a rebuilding cycle to get back (for an example: see Michigan, 2020-current). And I think Texas’ peak may have been LAST season and they may have actually missed that window. If they light up this Michigan defense, though, I’ll have to concede that they have reloaded and are probably a legit natty contender again.
Raziel Posted September 7 Posted September 7 Well that was probably both the best and worst case opening stand for Michigan. Best because Texas got no points, bad because Texas is getting some big plays.
EVA Posted September 7 Posted September 7 Michigan does a nice job on every down but 3rd on the opening drive. Texas RZ scoring woes continue…
EVA Posted September 7 Posted September 7 So Michigan is still doing the Davis Warren thing *sigh* Regardless, needing to go 15 yards for a 1st down is not gonna be a recipe for success for this offense, whoever is at QB.
hammerva Posted September 7 Posted September 7 Texas having no problem going through this Michigan defense.
EVA Posted September 7 Posted September 7 Uh-oh, did Arkansas fuck up and sign too good of a transfer QB to be able to fire Sam Pittman this year?
Raziel Posted September 7 Posted September 7 When you only use Orji to run up the middle, it's real fucking easy to defend it. 1
EVA Posted September 7 Posted September 7 Yeah, you can’t use Orji like that. Everybody knows what’s coming in that context.
EVA Posted September 7 Posted September 7 But the bigger problem for Michigan: Texas OL is whipping their ass.
EVA Posted September 7 Posted September 7 Texas currently doubling Michigan in TOP. Texas at like +.25 epa/rush, Michigan is below zero. Absolutely nothing happened this half that Michigan needed to win this game.
SirFozzie Posted September 7 Posted September 7 The Sickos are loving the halftime scores in the top 25 around the nation. Penn St, Oklahoma St, Kansas St, and Ga Tech are the other Top 25 teams playing in the noon window.. and they're all losing.
EVA Posted September 7 Posted September 7 Well, I hope all my Michigan friends enjoy getting an early jump on the afternoon. Get some sunshine. Start a fun project. I beg you—absolutely do NOT put yourselves through the agony of watching this Michigan offense try to chase a 3 TD game. It’s a long season, and your mental health is important to me. 1
Brian Fowler Posted September 7 Author Posted September 7 4 minutes ago, EVA said: That Loveland fumble really says it all. Yeah when the best guy on the offense is literally just giving the ball to Texas on what should've been a pretty big play... If they are going to use Orji at all, they at least need to get back to the spread option stuff they used last week (and also he has to throw the ball at least some just to keep the defense semi-honest) but I think it's becoming pretty obvious Michigan simply doesn't have a quarterback this year. Davis is a great story, but this isn't working, and they clearly don't trust Orji to actually run the offense and throw the ball. Maybe it's Jack Tuttle time. Low ceiling but higher floor and, hell, the ceiling has been pretty fucking low so far anyway. Get Jadyn Davis ready to be next year's guy, though the obvious downside to using this year to build to next year is that Will Johnson, Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, Colston Loveland, Donovan Edwards, etc will all be cashing NFL checks.
Brian Fowler Posted September 7 Author Posted September 7 1 minute ago, EVA said: Well, I hope all my Michigan friends enjoy getting an early jump on the afternoon. Get some sunshine. Start a fun project. I beg you—absolutely do NOT put yourselves through the agony of watching this Michigan offense try to chase a 3 TD game. It’s a long season, and your mental health is important to me. Oh it's done. I have zero faith in a comeback. They had one last chance to score on that drive before the half, get the ball back to start the second and score again. As soon as they lost the fumble it was pretty much over, the touchdown just confirmed it.
EVA Posted September 7 Posted September 7 10 minutes ago, SirFozzie said: The Sickos are loving the halftime scores in the top 25 around the nation. Penn St, Oklahoma St, Kansas St, and Ga Tech are the other Top 25 teams playing in the noon window.. and they're all losing. To be fair, it’s clear that Georgia Tech should not be rated Top 25 based on beating this sorry FSU team.
Brian Fowler Posted September 7 Author Posted September 7 And currently my beloved alma mater, #7 ranked Alma College, are getting annihilated at home by #17 University of Wisconsin River Falls. Down twenty at the half.
Brian Fowler Posted September 7 Author Posted September 7 "Control the clock. Get off the field on third down. Take care of the ball." Alternately, do none of those things and get blown out.
EVA Posted September 7 Posted September 7 Michigan has 2 weeks to get something figured out. USC is now a critical swing game between Michigan having the opportunity finish 9-3 and be a fringe 9-11 seed playoff contender or being a best-case-scenario 8-win team. It’s just one game, but that game can leave you with a wildly different feeling.
Brian Fowler Posted September 7 Author Posted September 7 7 minutes ago, EVA said: Michigan has 2 weeks to get something figured out. USC is now a critical swing game between Michigan having the opportunity finish 9-3 and be a fringe 9-11 seed playoff contender or being a best-case-scenario 8-win team. It’s just one game, but that game can leave you with a wildly different feeling. Yeah. I figure a lot of today is about Texas being really good (or at least hope) but Michigan's offense has some serious fundamental problems. I have no idea how to solve the lack of a bigger wide receiver that can get open down the field, or the obvious QB weakness. I hope just time playing will see the offensive line and non-Will Johnson secondary improve (and seeing teams that are less deep at receiver most weeks won't hurt.) But, clearly, is not a contender this year. Which sucks when you have three or four first round picks that won't be around next year. At least Michigan got the chip before the drop off.
Tabe Posted September 7 Posted September 7 (edited) Yeah, that Michigan game went pretty much the way I expected. It's unreal to me that Michigan doesn't have a better quarterback. Clearly they don't trust Orji to throw. Warren just isn't good enough. And so on. Bet they wish they still had Cade McNamara. Or even SEVENTH-year senior Alan Bowman. Edited September 7 by Tabe
EVA Posted September 7 Posted September 7 KState/Tulane and OK State/Arkansas are 2 very entertaining games coming down to the wire in this window.
hammerva Posted September 7 Posted September 7 Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati should have been over a while ago. Now they are driving for OT or the lead
EVA Posted September 7 Posted September 7 Ok ST having difficulty getting anything going with Ollie Gordon through 2 games is deeply troubling re: me picking them to win the Big 12.
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