gatling
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Posts posted by gatling
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Well, having a 25 year old blossom into a superstar in his 5th season probably doesn't happen too often. I'm an IU fan and I felt like I had hoped for too much when Vic came out of college and I thought he could be an All-Star caliber player, turns out I gave up too early. Turning Oladipo loose and letting Sabonis just be who he is instead of trying to force him into a stretch 4 like the Thunder did has been huge. This has to be the best way this could have turned out for the Pacers in the PG13 trade across the spectrum of possible outcomes..
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Damn, Domantas Sabonis missed a triple double by one rebound and one dime tonight while the Pacers thumped the Jazz by 27 without Oladipo. They have been fun to watch so far this year.
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From Dragon's list I'd say yes to Mauer, Cano, Utley, Edmonds, Lofton, Beltran, Jones, Sheffield, and Wagner as well as Mussina, Rolen, and Rivera who are no-brainers in my opinion. The only other that I'd consider is Posey but he probably needs another 5 years or so with at least three of them behind the plate still and above average production.
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Yeah, Joe Carter definitely wasn't a Hall of Famer. While Joe hit a lot of home runs, including an historic one, due to his low batting average and on base percentage, he was barely above a league average hitter for his career by both OPS+(105) and wRC+(102). Also, I didn't get to see enough of Joe Carter defensively, but advanced stats didn't care for him as a defender. This will probably be a surprise, but here is a good article by Jay Jaffe about both Carter and Clark.
Clark is an interesting case because if you looked at his numbers after his first six years, you'd have thought he was going to be a doubt Hall of Famer as he had 915 hits and 146 HR at age 27. The problem is he only hit 20 HR twice more over the next 9 years and couldn't stay on the field enough, plus the aforementioned early retirement when he was still hitting well--though it was to be with his autistic son so I can't fault the man. He's definitely a Hall of Very Good type guy.
I think it's going to be interesting in a few years to see what, if any "magic numbers" develop with service time manipulation and the way starting pitcher usage is changing. How many more pitchers are going to win 300 games? Sabathia needs 54 wins and he's 37 already, so we're talking what 14 wins a year for four year or 11 wins a year for five years? Not sure he can make it that long with his diminishing skills and declining health. Verlander sits at 204 wins, so that's 16 wins a year for six year and he'd be 41 at that point. Kershaw is 30 and has 153 wins, can he average 15 wins over the next 10 years with his back in the shape it is? Rick Porcello has 135 wins at age 29, so 16 wins a year for 11 years? So where does the line eventually settle at, 250 wins? Zack Greinke, Jon Lester, and Max Scherzer could all hit 250 wins reasonably, but quite a few guys will need another six or seven strong years to reach that. Maybe we'll move away from wins altogether, which would be fine with me. Hopefully things like on base percentage and overall offensive contributions through things like wOBA, wRC+, and other advanced stats as well as defense being considered more going forward as the voting base evolves.
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RIP Roy, you were one helluva musician.
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I should have added "by voters" to that last sentence, since that's what I actually meant. This is McGriff's 10th and final year on the ballot and he only had 98 votes(23.2%) last year so it's unlikely he makes it. If he had reached 500 HR, maybe the old school voters put him on their lists but he didn't any they don't seem to be pushing for him. He comes up short on the more sabr-leaning measurements so it ends up that no one is really beating the drum for him. Personally I wouldn't complain too much if he got in, but I'm also not bothered by his exclusion.
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I almost brought up Eddie Murray when I was talking about Fred McGriff because Murray is the guy I think of when I talk about a longevity/compiler type. The Crime Dog had more power and was a bit better hitter overall, though part of that is Murray hanging on too long trying to get to 500 HR and 3000 hits as five of his last seven seasons weren't very good and three of them were below replacement level which dragged down his rate stats. At their peaks though, Murray had the better years mostly because he was a better defender and baserunner. Murray also had the longer peak as he had 14 straight years of 3 fWAR or greater(and 11 in a row over 3. 6 and 10 total over 4) and 13 out of 14 years over 3.2 bWAR(and 9 years over 4) where as McGriff had a seven year peak(3.6 fWAR or better, 3.2 bWAR or better), then three down years where it looked like maybe he was winding down before bouncing with three out of four solid years with Tampa Bay and the Cubs(3.1 fWAR or better, 2.9 bWAR or better). I really think if McGriff hit 7 more HR and reached that 500 HR plateau he'd be in by now, rightly or wrongly. Since he didn't, his career is looked at more closely and he comes up short.
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9 hours ago, OSJ said:
First, let fire a pre-emptive strike so we don't get off-track talking about Larry Walker. The only thing that one needs to look at are the traditional numbers plus OPS for Home/Away splits. It's even worse than you might imagine. Larry was godlike at Coors field, everywhere else he was just a decent RF with a pretty fair bat. That's not a HOFr.
Now for Mr. McGriff and you guys know what a mark I am for the Braves... What a difference a handful of seasons makes... McGriff had the bad fortune to begin his career in Toronto, which was bad enough in the 1980s, but then he was traded to San Diego, another small market at the time where anything McGriff did was lost in the headlines about Jose Fucking Canseco, who was baseball's Chosen One until Ken Griffey jr. came into his own.
By the time he went to Atlanta, the focus had shifted to Frank Thomas and Jeff Bagwell (to say nothing of Mark McGwire). Poor Fred started in the tail-end of the pitcher-dominated era and then ended up being overshadowed by the aforementioned trio. To fairly evaluate McGriff, one has to look at his EXACT contemporaries, not at guys that came along even a few years later. Is he a HOFr? I honestly don't know, though I've started to lean toward "yes"; he's one of those guys that certainly wouldn't hurt things if he were inducted, and on the other hand, there's no great crime in keeping him out as a gatekeeper either.
If H/R splits are the only thing we're looking at, then sure, I can see where you'd say Larry Walker isn't a Hall of Famer. However, we have many more things we can look at that show he was in fact a Hall of Fame caliber player. Let's start with OPS+, which is park adjusted so it deals with that pesky Coors Field problem. Walker's OPS+ is 141, which ties him with Chipper Jones and David Ortiz. We can go a step further and use wRC+, which is not just park adjusted but also league adjusted so it's probably best to compare across different eras(more on this later), where Walker posted a 140 wRC+. Those two numbers are right in line with Albert Belle who had a 144 OPS+ and a 139 wRC+--except Walker was an excellent baserunner(not just stealing bases but taking extra bases, etc) and a tremendous defender in right field. Walker also ranks as the 10th best RF by JAWS hitting exactly the average career WAR mark of all HOF RF and besting the 7 year peak WAR number and the JAWS score. If you don't like today's advanced stats but like Bill James, Walker passes the test there too by besting the Hall of Fame Standards and Monitor numbers--though those aren't park adjusted, which is why Jay Jaffe came up with JAWS. Jaffe can probably explain this better. Larry Walker is definitely a HOF if Albert Belle is, and he should be even if you don't buy Belle is.
McGriff is an interesting case, as I wonder if he just hit 7 more HR if that would have been enough to just get him in or not. If you want to look at exact contemporaries, then we're probably talking Will Clark and Mark McGwire as all three guys first played in the majors in 1986, though Clark was the only one of the three to get more than a cup of coffee that year. The one McGriff has over the other two is longevity--which I think is part of why he hasn't been voted in, oddly enough. He was more of a compiler or steady and consistent guy, he never really had that stand out peak stretch or that one year that just wows you. That shows up in his JAWS scores as he ranks 31st all time at 1B ahead of only four Hall of Famers--Orlando Cepeda, Frank Chance, Jim Bottomley, and High Pockets Kelly and behind guys like Clark, McGwire, John Olerud, and Keith Hernandez. His OPS+ is tied for 45 all time with John Kruk, Prince Fielder, Travis Hafner, and Boog Powell. If you look at wRC+ for all qualified 1B since 1980, McGriff is at 134 right there with Clark(136) but well behind McGwire(157). McGriff had almost 2000 more plate appearances than Clark and over 2500 more than McGwire yet other than a 200 HR advantage over Clark he doesn't really stand out above either of them anywhere else, other than the longevity and stat compiling. Put another way, how different is McGriff from a guy who put up 2038 hits, 473 HR, 1512 RBI, a 135 wRC+ and a 138 OPS+ in 1500 fewer plate appearances? Pretty similar right? That guy is Carlos Delgado, who was as good a hitter as McGriff but had a bit shorter career(and a couple of years wasted trying to keep him behind the plate) and was a worse defender. Actually, Delgado is a good comparison for Albert Belle, as his 1997 to 2006 stretch(ages 25 to 34) saw him average 36.4 HR compared to the 37.3 Belle posted from 1991 to 2000(ages 24 to 33), an OPS+ of 127 to 181(138 career) in that peak versus Belle's 109 to 194(144 career), and an overall career line of .280/.383/.546 versus Belle's .295/.369/.564--very good number no doubt but only their hitting to support their candidacies. I think all three of McGriff, Delgado, and Belle fall short, but I wouldn't complain too loudly if any(or all) of them got in.
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8 hours ago, The Green Meanie said:
Alex Riley has a new business opportunity!
Did A-Ry get the Duke boys confused and end up with Bo's hair and Luke's shirt as a Halloween costume?
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Thursday, November 15
Green Bay at Seattle
Sunday, November 18
Dallas at Atlanta
Cincinnati at Baltimore
Carolina at Detroit
Tennessee at Indianapolis
Tampa Bay at NY Giants
Houston at Washington
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Oakland at Arizona
Denver at LA Chargers
Philadelphia at New Orleans
Minnesota at Chicago
Monday, November 19
Kansas City at LA Rams
Tiebreaker #1: Todd Gurley rushing yards 167
Tiebreaker #2: total points in Philadelphia/New Orleans 70
Tiebreaker #3: Philip Rivers passing yards 236
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2 hours ago, OSJ said:
My friend, they are not comparable at all, a difference that great in SLG % is barely in the same universe. One was a fine, fine 5-tools player for a full career, the other was a HR machine the like of which hadn't been seen since the days of Ralph Kiner. They are about as similar as Lee Smith and Harold Baines, which is to say, not at all.
While Brian Giles and Albert Belle aren't comparable types of players, we absolutely can compare their value as players--and hitters, of which wOBA and wRC+ do a great job. Those metrics show they provided similar value with the bat, but Giles was a superior baserunner and defender which is why he has a 10 to 12 win advantage in WAR(depending on your bWAR vs. fWAR choice) over Belle in about two more years worth of plate appearances--which is equal to about two years of elite production. If Belle is a no doubter, then Giles is probably a borderline guy--but I don't think Belle is a Hall of Famer , so Giles would fall short as well(though I tend to think they're pretty even). Not that it will probably shift anyone's opinions but here is a couple of articles from Jay Jaffe covering each guy(plus Harold Baines).
https://www.si.com/mlb/2014/12/24/jaws-2015-hall-of-fame-ballot-brian-giles
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Eric Ebron with the trusty old TE Jet Sweep for a TD.
edit: Ebron just caught his 2nd TD pass(third TD overall). Hope everyone that has him in fantasy played him today.
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My 10:
Edgar Martinez
Mike Mussina
Roger Clemens
Barry Bonds
Larry Walker
Manny Ramirez
Gary Sheffield
Scott Rolen
Mariano Rivera
Roy Halladay
JAWS has Helton as a yes, but that doesn't feel right to me. Schilling should probably be on the list but I couldn't bring myself to vote for him. I have much less issue with the PED guys than I do with a fucking Nazi sympathizer. Andruw Jones would probably be 11th on my ballot
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1 hour ago, Trebor said:
How much for S.D. Jones?
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17 minutes ago, AxB said:
How many of those action figures are of guys who are still alive? Just Tugboat & Jimmy Hart?
Bill Eadie is still alive right? And is that Warlord just past Earthquake, he's still alive too isn't he?
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I love that Nuggets jersey.
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This 3* shard stuff is some bullshit. Here are 1000 shards, cash them in to get 20 shards of a character that takes 800 shards to obtain. Why not give us 1000 shards and let us pick a damn character you bastards. On the bright side, I got far enough in the rewards from Family Reunion to get 20 shards of Naomi and recruit her. Of course I can't take her past 2* bronze because I had to enhance Jeff Hardy to be able to spend enough TP to get the rewards that gave me the Naomi shards. It's a vicious circle, lol.
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Thursday, November 8
Carolina at Pittsburgh
Sunday, November 11
Buffalo at NY Jets
Detroit at Chicago
New Orleans at Cincinnati
Atlanta at Cleveland
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Arizona at Kansas City
Washington at Tampa Bay
New England at Tennessee
LA Chargers at Oakland
Miami at Green Bay
Seattle at LA Rams
Dallas at Philadelphia
Monday. November 12
NY Giants at San Francisco
Tiebreaker #1: Jared Goff passing yards 315
Tiebreaker #2: interceptions thrown in Buf/NYJ 5
Tiebreaker #3: total points in Wsh/TB 63
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I don't know, it's working for me. I just dropped 500 in-game cash to take down Shawn Michaels at the end of Hell Mode Family Reunion Tour. He had 230K health and was a pain in the ass. Hopefully I can get the 6 other boxes of Booty-O's and the prize ends up worthwhile. Not even going to try Papa Shango for the 31K in turkeys...
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I got that too for a few minutes, somehow my wifi was turned off on my phone. Turned it back on, game loaded just fine.
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Thursday, November 1
Oakland at San Francisco
Sunday, November 4
NY Jets at Miami
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Chicago at Buffalo
Tampa Bay at Carolina
Kansas City at Cleveland
Detroit at Minnesota
Atlanta at Washington
Houston at Denver
LA Chargers at Seattle
LA Rams at New Orleans
Green Bay at New England
Monday, November 5
Tennessee at Dallas
Tiebreaker #1: Nathan Peterman interceptions thrown 3
Tiebreaker #2: total points in GB/NE 59
Tiebreaker #3: Todd Gurley rushing yards 126
Highway to Ham Week #12
in FOOTBALL
Posted
Thursday, November 22
Chicago at Detroit
Washington at Dallas
Atlanta at New Orleans
Sunday, November 25
New England at NY Jets
Oakland at Baltimore
Jacksonville at Buffalo
Seattle at Carolina
Cleveland at Cincinnati
NY Giants at Philadelphia
San Francisco at Tampa Bay
Arizona at LA Chargers
Miami at Indianapolis
Pittsburgh at Denver
Green Bay at Minnesota
Monday, November 26
Tennessee at Houston
Tiebreaker #1: Aaron Rodgers passing yards 327
Tiebreaker #2: winning margin in Giants/Eagles 7
Tiebreaker #3: total interceptions thrown in Jaguars/Bills 5