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2022 NCAAF - WEEK ONE

Dolfan in NYC

By Dolfan in NYC
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EVA

EVA

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SEC

Playoff Contenders (I won’t belabor the point with these guys)

Alabama: 2021 was a rebuilding year for Alabama, and they played to within 5 minutes of winning another national title. It was arguably Nick Saban’s BEST coaching job at Alabama. This year, they bring back a Heisman QB and the best defensive player in the country (with a wealth of experience alongside him), and brought in an influx of elite transfers (namely Georgia Tech RB Jahmyr Gibbs) to plug any holes left at the skill positions. Basically, if they’re not playing for the national championship again this January, they will have either been beset by the worst string of injuries you’ve ever seen, or it will have been Saban’s WORST coaching job ever.

Georgia: It’s hard to win championships in the modern era of college football without great QB play. But last year, the Bulldogs fielded a generationally talented defense, and that proved to be good enough to carry Stetson Bennett and a very pedestrian offense across the finish line. Well, guess what? Georgia’s going to be great again. They recruit at a level where they can reload like that. If they’re not in the SEC title game and in the mix for a playoff spot at the end of the season, that will be a shock. BUT...the defense isn’t going to be generationally great again. They’re going to need more from the offense this season, and I don’t know that they’re going to get that with Bennett still hanging around. There’s a reason their best big play WR (Jermaine Burton) decamped for Alabama after Bennett announced his comeback. This seems like the year they get tripped up unexpectedly in conference play and miss the playoffs.

 

Conference Challenger (Source: Sliced Bread at Bro Bible)

Texas A&M: Look, the talent is all there. It’s a championship caliber roster. The talent has been there for the Aggies to break through in the West for the past 3 seasons. They just haven’t had the quarterback, and Jimbo Fisher hasn’t been able to get out of his own way. Is this the year it finally happens? For Jimbo’s sake I hope so, after he made a bit of a fool of himself this offseason. At some point, the boosters, who are *definitely not* signing all these recruits to big money NIL deals to get them to College Station, are going to want to see some return on their investments. Fortunately, the Aggies have a pretty decent schedule this season, aside from having to travel to Alabama to face a vengeful Lord Saban. If Haynes King is healed up and ready to be the guy...maybe this really is the year??? I’m just going to keep saying A&M can win the conference until they finally do or Jimbo gets fired. This is my bit.

 

Spoilers—The middle of the SEC is deep with dangerous teams.

Arkansas: I was *this* close to slotting Arkansas into the conference challenger section. The reason? QB KJ Jefferson. I’m not saying he’s Cam Newton, but he’s the closest thing to Cam that the SEC has seen in a decade. He’s a very dangerous player, and he’s back for his contract year as a junior. He is losing a key weapon from last year’s offense (WR Treylon Burks), but the Hogs are VERY high on Oklahoma transfer Jadon Haselwood’s potential to fill that spot. The problem for Arkansas—and what keeps me from including them in the conference challenger section—is the massive loss of talent from last year’s stout defense, especially in the defensive front. I think the Arkansas offense is going to win them some games you might not expect, but their defense is also going to cause them to drop some games you wouldn’t expect.

Kentucky: The Wildcats are a very trendy pick to possibly push Georgia in the East this year. Most of that hype is based on QB Will Levis, himself a trendy name in NFL draft circles. And I’ve gotta say—I don’t get it. I think Levis’s size and athleticism reminds some people of Josh Allen, but he has not been that guy in college (granted, Allen wasn’t really that guy in college either). Most of Kentucky’s passing offense was the result of the extraordinary efforts of WR Wan’Dale Robinson. He’s off to the NFL, and Kentucky whiffed on finding his replacement in the transfer portal. I think this is going to be a step back to 7-or-8-win Kentucky. The fact that that qualifies as a “step back year” for Kentucky is a testament to Mark Stoops. He’s a great coach, and he’ll find a way to win a game he shouldn’t this year. But it’s going to be bowling shoe ugly.

Mississippi State:  The Bulldogs took a substantial step forward on offense in year two of the Mike Leach experience. Historically, Leach offense become really special when he has a third year starting QB, and that’s exactly what he has in Will Rogers this season. Unfortunately, MSU is replacing both starting OTs on an offensive line that already struggled to protect Rogers from SEC edge rushers. That said, teams that don’t rush the QB well and/or don’t have offenses capable of scoring points in bunches, if need be, are going to be vulnerable to being plundered by The Pirate. (And don’t look now, but Leach had one of his most respectable defenses ever last year, and they’re bringing back 8 starters on that side of the ball.)

Ole Miss: Lane Kiffin has his work cut out for him this year. The Rebels lost virtually all of their 2021 offensive production. A lot of his best defensive players, too. Oh, and a host of coaches, including the OC and DC. It’s like Year 1 all over again in Oxford. That said, Kiffin was very active in the portal and brought in some Dudes through the transfer portal, including USC QB Jaxson Dart (who isn’t officially the starter as of this writing, but come on). And he’s still the kind of mad genius who’s going to have the perfect plan to drive somebody insane this year. The Rebels remain dangerous.

Tennessee: Another trendy pick to push Georgia in the East. The Vols saw an instant change in their offensive productivity in Josh Huepel’s system. QB Hendon Hooker went for 3,500 total yards and 36 TDs against just 3 INTs, and he’s back as the trigger man. But anytime a new offensive system takes a conference by storm, you often see a regression in year two, after all the opposing defenses have had a chance to look at it. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Vols come back to Earth a little bit, and their defense still looks pretty dreadful, so they’re not going to get much help there. That said, teams that don’t have the Vol offense figured out are going to have to score a lot of points to keep up.

 

Fixer Uppers

Florida: It’s a whole new world in Gainesville. Billy Napier and Dan Mullen couldn’t be much more different if they tried. Napier has repeatedly asked Gator fans for patience, because he knows how significant of a rebuild this is going to be. He is going to attempt to remake UF as a hard-nosed team that wins in the trenches, something they could never do under Mullen. I don’t think they’re going to be bad by any stretch. In fact, I think they have the dudes on defense to be pretty stout immediately. It’s the offense that’s going to take time. QB Anthony Richardson was probably one of the most overhyped players in the country last year.

LSU: I don’t think people are aware of just how decimated the LSU roster was by the end of 2021. This is going to be an almost completely different team in 2022, and as far as groceries go...Brian Kelly does not have the ingredients to make a great meal. They very well could be the worst team in the West this year. If they win more than 2 conference games, that would be a major accomplishment for Kelly, in my eyes.

Missouri: Mizzu has been bang average in Eli Drinkwitz’s first two seasons in Columbia, and they look bang average again. They’ve really struggled to maintain positive momentum. That said, they’ve started recruiting weirdly well. Really well. I’m inclined to say Eli should get another year or two to put it together before we write this experiment off. (But between Eli and Scott Satterfield at Louisville, these have not been great endorsements for hiring Appalachian State coaches.)

South Carolina: Of all the trendy “They could sneak up on Georgia” picks, this might be the most pie-in-the-sky. The Gamecocks outperformed expectations in 2021. No one saw them making (and winning!) a bowl game. So, it’s somewhat understandable that the addition of one-time star QB Spencer Rattler has people expecting a bigger breakthrough season. But pump the brakes on that. They had three SEC wins last year: Vanderbilt and late-season, cratering Florida and Auburn (all games at home). They benefited from other teams’ misery. Their schedule is much tougher this season, and their roster is still nowhere near championship caliber. I think it’s pretty likely that they win less 3 conference games.

Vanderbilt: Not much to be said here, besides I hope the ‘Dores enjoyed their trip to Hawaii last week, because that’s as close to a bowl game as they’re going to get for a long while. I honestly don’t know if there’s a way to build a winning program at Vandy anymore in the portal/NIL era, but if there is, we’re not going to see it until, like, 2024 at the earliest. This is the most “tear it down to the studs” rebuild in major college football.

 

Carousel Candidate

Auburn: And what more needs to be said here? He avoided a coup this past winter but just lost his biggest supporter in AD Allen Greene. There is no hotter seat in college football. And the truth is...this Auburn team seems...fine? On paper, they’re almost a mirror image of last year’s 6-7 team. They’re going to run the ball really well and play pretty good defense. But with the departure of QB Bo Nix to Oregon and apparently whiffing on finding a quarterback solution in the transfer portal (apparently Zach Calzada isn’t all that good, who would’ve guessed?), they appear to be rolling with TJ Finley again. And we saw how that went at the end of last season. 

All that said, all of this off-field chaos could portend the arrival of the dreaded Chaos Auburn. In which case, all bets are off. In the end, either Harsin is going .500 or worse and getting fired...or he’s going to have a surprise great season and get the hell out of Auburn on his own terms. Either way, I would put your money on Auburn having a new coach in 2023


 

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Brian Fowler

Brian Fowler

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TAMU doesn't necessarily have to win the West, the SEC, and the national title this year, but when their bowl game is over, they really need to have double digits in the win column. They do that, and they might enter next season the odds on favorite to win it all, just on the sheer weight of the truly, absurdly talented freshman class they are fielding this year. On paper, the greatest recruiting class in modern history.

Another ho-hum 8-5 season, and you have to really start wondering if they'll ever get the job done.

------

As a fan, I love seeing it, but why the fuck do ACC teams keep scheduling road games against G5 schools?

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Brian Fowler

Brian Fowler

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8 minutes ago, EVA said:

Iowa/SDState is 5-3 going into the 4th.  YESSSSS.

Man, if you were an Iowa defensive player or coach, just how much would you hate every single person on the offensive staff, especially the coach's son offensive coordinator who got away Scott-free from the same allegations that got the trainer fired?

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hammerva

hammerva

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North Carolina survived by at a couple inches on a failed 2 pointer.  

Holy shit this finish is insane 

Okay maybe they survived by a yard on a failed THIS TIME.  Man if you are North Carolina you have to be disgusted with yourself 

Edited by hammerva
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EVA

EVA

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Like I was taking about earlier this week, UGA/Oregon is basically the equivalent of the last decade of Alabama neutral site kickoff games: The logos look great on the pregame graphics, but it’s a huge mismatch on the field.

Final score gonna be 52-10 or something like that.

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EVA

EVA

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While we’ve been dumping on UNC this morning, I do think it’s fair to point out that NC State also almost face-planted at East Carolina today. Wolfpack offense only scored 14 points, which is concerning, as that was expected to be more of a strength this year.

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Pete

Pete

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6 hours ago, EVA said:

I love Lee Corso, but even Bruce Willis’s agent wouldn’t do him like this.

Let the man save his dignity. He should be doing the headgear gimmick and nothing else, at this point.

Beat me to it. He's what, 87? He needs to go away. Like you said, give him the mascot gimmick or just put him out to pasture.

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