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AEW - AUGUST 2022


The Natural

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1 hour ago, Dog said:

The distinction between "HBO Max shuts down" and "HBO Max merges with Discovery+" seems to be semantic. Streaming competition is so cutthroat now, companies want as much content as possible. The existing HBO Max stuff has to migrate over; you don't just throw that away.

Dave sounds overly pessimistic. The real result here is that AEW won't get as big of a rights fee increase as they would have a year ago.

Exactly.  Word is there will just be a "HBO" tab on the Discovery Plus app.  It sucks, to be sure, but that's modern corporate branding and synergy bullshit for ya.  What amazes me, in general, is how all these content creators/studios who own the rights to movies are pulling all their stuff from other services so they can have it for their own service because, I guess, they feel like subscription fees are worth more than rights fees.  I just re-upped Paramaount Plus over the weekend and saw, for example, that the Beverly Hills Cop series is on that now where it used to be on HBO.  Same as we saw with Disney slowly pulling all Marvel content from Netflix, etc.  We're hitting a point where the only time content will be licensed is when the creator is getting a crazy overpriced deal for it (WWE!), far more than any money they could have made on their own.  I think we've already passed the point where the number of streaming services is unsustainable and I'm curious as to what the future holds.

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4 hours ago, Craig H said:

Also, as for Rampage, it's on the worst night with one of the worst time slots. The fact that it does as many viewers as it does should be some kind of a small miracle.

I also have to think their "+7" numbers (is that the term for how many people record the show and watch within a week?) have to be pretty good.

I know I usually watch on Saturday morning, and I think I've seen a few others here say the same.

But right now, I don't think anything is safe. Sounds like the dude running this merger is quite the asshat who just wants to gut everything.

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2 hours ago, Dog said:

The distinction between "HBO Max shuts down" and "HBO Max merges with Discovery+" seems to be semantic. Streaming competition is so cutthroat now, companies want as much content as possible. The existing HBO Max stuff has to migrate over; you don't just throw that away.

Dave sounds overly pessimistic. The real result here is that AEW won't get as big of a rights fee increase as they would have a year ago.

I wouldn't even rule out that they won't get that big increase. I said this two years ago when the numbers start dipping during the pandemic: what the hell would TNT replace AEW with? More movies that they replay every other day? Unless they want to kill TNT outright and just start off fresh with just the NBA slate, then getting rid of AEW would be disastrous for TNT. Nothing else is going to get them high 800k-1 million viewers every week that isn't the NBA. I also don't think TNT has any shot in hell of ever getting the NFL game package. The price is WAYYYYYYYYYY too high for just getting ONE game per week and then that's only for 3 1/2 months out of the year.

Keep in mind, it's not like the NBA had a thrilling, banner year either. There were many weeks this past season with a bunch of mediocre games, and the league was besieged (as always it seems like) with injuries and people resting in addition to not that many compelling storylines during the regular season. I think that led to the playoffs not doing that well in the ratings. Hell, the bubble season imo was more compelling than this past season. They need a strong bounce back season to get the ratings back up.

For those reasons, AEW is safe as safe can be. The only issue is I see going forward is them being willing to push AEW like they should. When AT&T bought Time Warner, that was the end of HBO boxing. World Championship Boxing was a staple of HBO and helped make HBO what it is prior to the prestige programming they would be known for in later years. Granted, the backstage politics of boxing and waning quality of the product probably laid the groundwork for that move years before the acquisition. However, I don't think anyone believed boxing would be gone from HBO. They wanted to go in a more storytelling, story driven direction (the inverse of what's going on w/ WB Discovery axing scriptedcontent) with HBO, which meant boxing was out the door.

Before the announcement of the cancelation and maybe even before the merger, you can tell that HBO boxing was no longer the jewel of HBO. It was just another program. It may have well been the 6,000th airing of Man of Steel or Pacific Rim or a GoT rerun airing at 1 am. As much as the matchmaking sucked the last 3-5 years and the lack of big name superstars, I think that stagnated the ratings more. For decades, HBO was able to galvanize hardcore boxing fans in pretty decent to very good numbers for a premium cable network. Showtime is still in the boxing game without their biggest competitor and still haven't been able to do that. I would even argue Showtime was crushing HBO in the last few years of HBO boxing in terms of quality fights, and they never approached what HBO was able to do with boxing. I feel like even if Warner Media never went in that direction and cancelled boxing or it was still doing good numbers, they still would have approached it as if boxing was beneath them and treated it as such. IMO that's what AEW needs to avoid. I dunno if that means toning down some of the violence and people bleeding buckets or establishing just a better overall working relationship with the conglomerate. I think what hurt boxing (even still today outside of HBO) much like in pro wrestling is outsiders aren't permitted and very much frowned upon. People call it protecting the business, but really it's alienating the higher ups and hindering the growth of the business. When both have struggled for years to create big name superstars, that's the one thing you cannot afford to do.

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When Nitro was cancelled, it was still the highest rated program on TNT that wasn't a movie repeat.  I know those of us seeing a repeat of Kellner coming in and going scorched earth might just be panicing, but you probably don't want to be over confident with the "Warner will never leave that money on the table" because the have.

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I miss Jim Lampley calling boxing. Used to watch boxing with my grandfather quite a lot back in the '90s and Lampley's calls were a staple of that. Fond memories.

We've heard of Khan hosting executives at shows on numerous occasions, including most recently the episode with the MJF omghesshooting angle. I reckon if Khan understood that those particular executives didn't like the edgier, crash tv stuff he wouldn't have run such an angle on that episode in particular. Who knows what these discovery fucks are after though. 

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7 minutes ago, Raziel said:

When Nitro was cancelled, it was still the highest rated program on TNT that wasn't a movie repeat.  I know those of us seeing a repeat of Kellner coming in and going scorched earth might just be panicing, but you probably don't want to be over confident with the "Warner will never leave that money on the table" because the have.

This is sadly right. I don't think anything is 100% safe right now.

Sometimes I'm shocked by the fact that people make it to the top of the tv industry and seem to have absolutely no concept of what people like to watch. Then, I remember that the top of every industry is filled with people who have absolutely no clue what people actually like.

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28 minutes ago, Elsalvajeloco said:

I wouldn't even rule out that they won't get that big increase.

Wrestlenomics has been saying that judging by what WWE's ratings are and what they've gotten for TV fees over the years, AEW should be due for a 3-4 times increase. So maybe now they only get a 2-2.5 times increase.

Edited by Dog
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Regarding WCW getting cancelled, the TV landscape was entirely different back then. TV channels or selections weren't nearly as diverse or plentiful as they are now. Streaming and DVR also wasn't even much of a thing unless you were one of a few to own a Tivo. The thought was back then that it didn't matter if WCW was cancelled because they were going to make the same amount of revenue or more. Plus TNT had a roadmap in place to start airing original series that I feel like basically didn't get much further than The Closer. Then, right around the corner for WWE, they were getting absolutely shitty TV deals with bad ad sales. Remember that time when WWE was convinced they were going to get NASCAR money and they got utterly fucked instead?

Cable is struggling for anything that will consistently draw in viewers now that the pool is so diluted. I don't think anyone should be 100% confident that WBD wouldn't cut bait with AEW or give them the shaft on the next rights deal, but chances are also really good WBD hangs onto a winner. It's not even remotely the same environment it was back in 2001. Hell, it's not even remotely the same environment it was in 2011. 

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37 minutes ago, Jiji said:

I miss Jim Lampley calling boxing. Used to watch boxing with my grandfather quite a lot back in the '90s and Lampley's calls were a staple of that. Fond memories.

We've heard of Khan hosting executives at shows on numerous occasions, including most recently the episode with the MJF omghesshooting angle. I reckon if Khan understood that those particular executives didn't like the edgier, crash tv stuff he wouldn't have run such an angle on that episode in particular. Who knows what these discovery fucks are after though. 

As much as Lampley from some accounts is a bit of arrogant asshole (just like many folks who come from the sports/news anchor world), serial womanizer, and probably a woman beater, I cannot deny his ability as a play by play is unparalleled. And he replaced another great PBP man in Barry Tompkins. I DARE anyone go back and watch James Toney vs. Vassiliy Jirov, hear Lampley and Emanuel Steward's call of the fight, and not become a hardcore boxing fan then and there. For me, Lampley's round by round call and Steward absolutely marking out at the unbridled chaos is up there with any of JR's memorable calls or perhaps anything I've heard in pro wrestling. It's absolutely otherworldly. Hollywood couldn't even do something like that.

38 minutes ago, Raziel said:

When Nitro was cancelled, it was still the highest rated program on TNT that wasn't a movie repeat.  I know those of us seeing a repeat of Kellner coming in and going scorched earth might just be panicing, but you probably don't want to be over confident with the "Warner will never leave that money on the table" because the have.

The problem is that there were more options that they could have went with. TV was in a much different place than in 2022.  In addition, I think WCW being a coffin on rollerskates had more to do with that than Kellner. I always have been a firm believer of that, and that people (namely Bischoff and sort of the revisionist history people) try to paint a different picture. If they never got cancelled, they would have went out of business at some point. There were no indications that they were going to turn that bad boy around. What kept WCW on life support is being owned by Turner. If TNT/TBS doesn't want AEW, they can go elsewhere because OTHER networks don't have better options. It might be a UFC on FS1 situation where the UFC got paid A LOT of money to build up a station that was non existent before they got there, but it's much better than what WCW and ECW had as options in 2001.

Without AEW, TNT and TBS are basically back at square one when it was just Braves baseball, (and as Bobby Heenan put it) bad John Wayne movies, and NBA on TNT 20+ years ago. That's a hundred steps backwards.

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Early-ish Grand Slam numbers. They obviously aren't selling nearly as fast as last year so the Vincels are out in full force predicting their doom. These choads conveniently ignore the fact they've sold just under 10K seats without announcing a SINGLE match, which is amazing.

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4 hours ago, Raziel said:

When Nitro was cancelled, it was still the highest rated program on TNT that wasn't a movie repeat.  I know those of us seeing a repeat of Kellner coming in and going scorched earth might just be panicing, but you probably don't want to be over confident with the "Warner will never leave that money on the table" because the have.

The main difference here is WCW was owned by the TV company and was bleeding money like a stuck pig. It looks the same on the surface but it's really apples to oranges.

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37 minutes ago, joseph2112 said:

The main difference here is WCW was owned by the TV company and was bleeding money like a stuck pig. It looks the same on the surface but it's really apples to oranges.

This is why Vince fought so hard to keep WWF under his auspices, even when business was terrible.

WCW also underwent quite a few transformations in 12 1/2 years. They went from something Jim Crockett Jr. had to sell off because he didn't keep track of his money/lied to about how much he made to Ted's new toy and the apple of his eye to the redheaded stepchild of the Turner family that only Ted wanted to a massive overachiever that was finally accepted to the turd in the punch bowl. In that last phase, Ted wasn't there to save it. They went full circle as company. A lot of stuff happened between 1988 and 2000/2001.

That said, just like above, I do concede that nothing remains static. Everything is contingent on something. Just because you're safe today and probably tomorrow and the next day doesn't mean you're going to be safe a year from now. If there is a regime change, you better get in good with that new regime. 

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Can we pause for a minute to note that Cassidy's been on a tear since he got back:

The UE six man, Ospreay, Ethan Page, Tony Nese, Wardlow, the fun six man the other night, the Lethal match.

It's been a great string of performances for him.

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1 hour ago, Matt D said:

Can we pause for a minute to note that Cassidy's been on a tear since he got back:

The UE six man, Ospreay, Ethan Page, Tony Nese, Wardlow, the fun six man the other night, the Lethal match.

It's been a great string of performances for him.

Especially the Page/Nese/Wardlow run, real stellar stuff

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1 hour ago, Matt D said:

Can we pause for a minute to note that Cassidy's been on a tear since he got back:

The UE six man, Ospreay, Ethan Page, Tony Nese, Wardlow, the fun six man the other night, the Lethal match.

It's been a great string of performances for him.

I recently realized that Orange Cassidy might be the third best wrestler in AEW.

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As a way to celebrate my payday and trying to numb the pain of my summer vacation drawing to a close, I bought the All Out 22 on Fite and was able to take advantage of the "get 4 credits back" offer. Maybe next year I have 20 again.

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Speaking of All Out 2022, want a go at guessing/booking the PPV portion of the card?

AEW World Championship: CM Punk vs. Jon Moxley. All depends if Punk's ready. I don't think he will be.

AEW TNT Championship: Wardlow (c) vs. Darby Allin though he's dropped losses lately. Wardlow vs. Andrade El Idolo?

AEW World Tag Team Championship: Keith Lee/Swerve Strickland (c) vs. #FTR. #FTR need to win them while holding the ROH World Tag Team Championship, IWGP World Tag Team Championship and AAA World Tag Team Championship. Also don't know how long Dax can go with his labrum tear.

AEW Trios Championship: Kenny Omega and the Young Bucks or Adam Page and the Young Bucks vs. Adam Cole/Kyle O'Reilly/Bobby Fish. You could do both without the Trios Titles so in that case...

AEW Trios Championship: House of Black vs. The Dark Order or House of Black vs. Best Friends.

AEW Women's World Championship: Jamie Hayter (c) vs. Thunder Rosa. I'd put the belt on Hayter at Battle of the Belts III. You can then do tensions between Dr. Britt Baker and Jamie that she was able to do what DMD never could.

AEW TBS Championship: Jade Cargill (c) vs. Kris Statlander.

ROH World Championship: Claudio Castagnoli (c) vs. ROH TV Champion, Samoa Joe.

Bryan Danielson vs. Daniel Garcia. Danielson has to be on the show as the GOAT and one year anniversary joining AEW.

Eddie Kingston vs. Sammy Guevara.

Christian vs. Jungle Boy.

Edited by The Natural
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The GOAT, Bryan Danielson:

Quote

“So people think I had two options between WWE and AEW, and the reality was I was considering three options, which was WWE, AEW, or just not being a full-time wrestler anymore and being more of a full-time dad. When I told that to Brie with the money that each company was offering to me, I think she might’ve wanted to kill me.”

 

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