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UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis (12/10/2016) - Toronto, Ontario, Canada (Air Canada Centre)


Elsalvajeloco

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9 minutes ago, The Natural said:

Donald Cerrone is a Fighter of the Year contender with Michael Bisping, Stipe Miocic and Dominick Cruz. Add Amanda Nunes if she beats Ronda Rousey at UFC 207.

Whoever wins Cruz/Garbrandt is a legit contender because Garbrandt had a pretty good year leading up to 207.

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2 minutes ago, Elsalvajeloco said:

Whoever wins Cruz/Garbrandt is a legit contender because Garbrandt had a pretty good year leading up to 207.

I agree. Winner of that fight will be fighting it out with Michael Bisping for my Fighter of the Year vote. Even if Cruz loses, it's the biggest comeback in MMA history.

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43 minutes ago, Elsalvajeloco said:

I don't think that's the case because I can see a scenario where Romero doesn't do a whole lot. I watched this man do diddly shit against Derek Brunson and almost lose that fight. He relies so much on having a great eraser that I don't know if that's the worst for Michael Bisping. Hendo had that factor, and Bisping still pulled that one out of his ass. The same with the Anderson fight back in February.  I'm more worried about someone who can swamp Bisping with activity just like he is trying to do as well. If Romero is going to concede Bisping three rounds, all Mike has to do run away for 8-10 minutes and survive some scary moments. Bisping has shown himself capable of doing that.

I agree that Gastelum is probably a worse match up than Romero, but when Romero is a much more devastating fighter.  Gastelum is someone you can try to gameplan around, Romero could just hit you with a flying death knee like he did to Chris Weidman.  

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1 hour ago, supremebve said:

I agree that Gastelum is probably a worse match up than Romero, but when Romero is a much more devastating fighter.  Gastelum is someone you can try to gameplan around, Romero could just hit you with a flying death knee like he did to Chris Weidman.  

You can gameplan around Romero because it's not like there aren't strategies to avoid flying knees. Keep in mind, Bisping isn't the type of dude to just duck down for takedowns or go for takedowns when Romero is clearly the better wrestler and athletic enough to reverse position. I think with Romero, if Bisping can make him fight even more tenative and force his counters to miss their target more and more, Bisping would run away with a point scoring affair on the scorecards. Romero is the type of fighter where you can get him frustrated and bitching about their opponent running away when in fact, he is losing a fight he shouldn't have been fighting. If Romero really wanted to beat Bisping, he would just try to clinch him against the fence, get him tired, and then start ragdolling him in late round 2/early part of round 3 before pounding him out. However, Romero has never been like even though he can do that easily. He is so focused on knocking people out or stopping them with standing strikes that it makes him be inefficient for long periods of time in a fight. He can do what Jon Jones has done to several opponents, but he decides not to do that. I think that's what could cost him the title. This is why I don't want to see people complaining if he loses a title fight with Bisping that way. It's easy to not second guess someone when he or she is winning in devastating fashion everytime out. However, when they had other avenues to victory that were (and are) constantly ignored and it finally caught up to them, that's when people get upset irrationally. As capable as Romero has shown himself to win in a certain way, we can't forget that there is a tremendous flaw in that particular method.

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57 minutes ago, Elsalvajeloco said:

You can gameplan around Romero because it's not like there aren't strategies to avoid flying knees. Keep in mind, Bisping isn't the type of dude to just duck down for takedowns or go for takedowns when Romero is clearly the better wrestler and athletic enough to reverse position. I think with Romero, if Bisping can make him fight even more tenative and force his counters to miss their target more and more, Bisping would run away with a point scoring affair on the scorecards. Romero is the type of fighter where you can get him frustrated and bitching about their opponent running away when in fact, he is losing a fight he shouldn't have been fighting. If Romero really wanted to beat Bisping, he would just try to clinch him against the fence, get him tired, and then start ragdolling him in late round 2/early part of round 3 before pounding him out. However, Romero has never been like even though he can do that easily. He is so focused on knocking people out or stopping them with standing strikes that it makes him be inefficient for long periods of time in a fight. He can do what Jon Jones has done to several opponents, but he decides not to do that. I think that's what could cost him the title. This is why I don't want to see people complaining if he loses a title fight with Bisping that way. It's easy to not second guess someone when he or she is winning in devastating fashion everytime out. However, when they had other avenues to victory that were (and are) constantly ignored and it finally caught up to them, that's when people get upset irrationally. As capable as Romero has shown himself to win in a certain way, we can't forget that there is a tremendous flaw in that particular method.

Totally agree, Romero is a home run hitter who can't hit a breaking ball.  As long as you keep fooling him with the breaking pitches, you are good, but he only really needs to make contact once to change the entire game.  You can gameplan on how to stop what he does, but you can't gameplan on how to keep your brain from rattling if he smashes you with one big strike.  Gastelum is a better mixed martial artist as a whole, he has knockout power, but not the kind of power that can end anybody in the entire world's night with one shot.  Romero can knock out anyone, and is good enough that he'll probably land at least one good shot in a five round fight.  You can gameplan around all of his bullshit, but he's still one shot away from destroying you in devastating fashion.

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If you were going to draw up a Joe Rogan blueprint for a guy who would lose to Bisping, you'd draw a guy who was shorter than 5'10" and was giving up at least 4 inches of reach.

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So I guess I'm the only one who actually doesn't want to see Do Hoo Choi - Swanson 2 sooner rather than later? Don't get me wrong, I loved that fight but I'd hate to see Choi take another beating like that so young into his career. Give Do Hoo Choi a relative softball or two in 2017 and at the same time see if Swanson can get to a title fight then revisit these two in late 2018 depending on their career trajectories. I get that that means potentially never seeing a rematch but at this point I don't see how an immediate fight between the two benefits anyone but the audience.

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7 minutes ago, Setsuna said:

So I guess I'm the only one who actually doesn't want to see Do Hoo Choi - Swanson 2 sooner rather than later? Don't get me wrong, I loved that fight but I'd hate to see Choi take another beating like that so young into his career. Give Do Hoo Choi a relative softball or two in 2017 and at the same time see if Swanson can get to a title fight then revisit these two in late 2018 depending on their career trajectories. I get that that means potentially never seeing a rematch but at this point I don't see how an immediate fight between the two benefits anyone but the audience.

I think Superboy, because of this fight, shows up as a Fight Night headliner next time he fights. Making a rematch with Swanson inside of the next 18 months or so would be stupid as they need Choi to be intact since they don't have a ton of Asian talent available headline potential shows in Asia. They have Horiguchi as a top fighter, but Superboy is clearly bigger name than Horiguchi. There are plenty of vulnerable fighters are 145 for him to smoke in a round. I think a fight with him and Jason Knight would be damn fun. I think a win over someone like Renan Barao would help his starpower more, and you can put that on FS1 and get 900k to a 1m viewers. Worst case scenario, you put him as the headliner on Fight Pass (or on a Fight Pass only event) against a lesser name like Myles Jury or Godofredo Pepey and get him a quick win.

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If Yair beats Penn, matching him up with Swanson would make for a ridiculous fight. I doubt they'd risk another high end prospect against Cub though. I would just love to see those two styles come together. You could have a counter in the corner of the screen for cartwheel kicks.

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28 minutes ago, Oyaji said:

If Yair beats Penn, matching him up with Swanson would make for a ridiculous fight. I doubt they'd risk another high end prospect against Cub though. I would just love to see those two styles come together. You could have a counter in the corner of the screen for cartwheel kicks.

Would Yair and Swanson fight each other with the Jackson-Wink connection? I mean Yair trains in Chicago and it's not like Jackson-Wink is not replete with coaches, but I dunno if that might be an issue. If Cub is fighting Yair, Greg Jackson isn't the dude to take sides unless it's like the Overeem-Arlovski situation.

I think if Yair underperforms against Penn (anything that's not a clear blowout as expected), they may pull back and reassess the situation. In the old days, the UFC would say fuck it and give him a legit, tough opponent anyway. I'm not sure about now. I wish Mendes wasn't suspended because I think Yair fighting someone like Mendes would give a better assessment of where he is at rather than fighting Swanson (even though that's a potential Fight of the Night easily). I think this comes down to the UFC deciding if they want Swanson to capitalize on the win or do the UFC want to capitalize on Cub having that win by giving him to someone they want to build up. I mean you can put Swanson in against a Brian Ortega and that might accomplish both. However, putting him against Mirsad Bektic definitely falls in the latter. I doubt anyone is tearing down the door to fight Bektic because that can turn into a one sided ass whooping easy. However, a win over Swanson puts Bektic on the map. There are some featherweight prospects who need a marquee win and a very credible one at that to establish themselves.

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6 minutes ago, TheVileOne said:

FOX replay did 4.6 million viewers.  So that makes up for any potential PPV windfalls. 

Hopefully, this starts some sort of tradition. They can be more creative with their TV-PPV synergy than FS1 prelims -> PPV.

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10 minutes ago, Elsalvajeloco said:

Hopefully, this starts some sort of tradition. They can be more creative with their TV-PPV synergy than FS1 prelims -> PPV.

Sometimes I wonder why certain events don't get the red carpet marketing or attention they should on FS1, but whatever.  I wouldn't mind some more outside-the-box TV broadcast ideas for TV and PPV.  

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Aren't they supposed to be cutting down the amount of PPVs they do in a single year and do more FS1 and FOX events? I read that wasn't going to start until late 2017/early 2018, but they're trying to get TV to be their biggest source of revenue or something. If that's the case, I wonder if they'd create more timeslots in that TV schedule that they want, to air PPVs.

I still wouldn't mind PPVs airing on FOX 2-3 weeks after they're shown live, though. I missed out on this one because I was busy with family things.

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I think they are just cutting the total number of events next year, but we'll see.

I think they should try getting some more prelims on main FOX, like for Super Bowl weekend, that's something they should do.  I know that's a Fight Night FS1 card, but just an idea.  Get some of the prelims for signature events on FOX more.

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2 minutes ago, TheVileOne said:

Sometimes I wonder why certain events don't get the red carpet marketing or attention they should on FS1, but whatever.  I wouldn't mind some more outside-the-box TV broadcast ideas for TV and PPV.  

On FS1, it's a bit tougher because on Saturdays you're moving from live sports into more live sports (the UFC). The only transition you have is the stuff in the studio.

They tried all that with UFC 205 but I am not sure how much of all that worked. The history of MSG video during the FS1 prelims was probably the best video package they've ever done. It felt like a real big card but I don't know how much that could translate into PPV buys. If you didn't want to buy the show midway through the TV prelims, then I dunno what the hell could convince you to buy the PPV.

11 minutes ago, Casey said:

Aren't they supposed to be cutting down the amount of PPVs they do in a single year and do more FS1 and FOX events? I read that wasn't going to start until late 2017/early 2018, but they're trying to get TV to be their biggest source of revenue or something. If that's the case, I wonder if they'd create more timeslots in that TV schedule that they want, to air PPVs.

I still wouldn't mind PPVs airing on FOX 2-3 weeks after they're shown live, though. I missed out on this one because I was busy with family things.

Somebody asked/said the exactly same thing in the Observer mailbag the other night. Meltzer's response basically was it will still be 13 PPVs, and the only thing that would change that is getting the desired new TV deal.

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11 minutes ago, Casey said:

Is part of that new TV deal more events on FOX/FS1, or is it just a better price tag for UFC?

Depends on who wants the UFC for the money they want. If Fox doesn't have to pay them more money, then it makes no sense on cutting down on the # of PPVs. Although, I would argue if you couldn't get close to the money you wanted, it's probably because all the bidders saw how thin and fragile some of these cards are. Stuff like Paige & Sage works because you're not sacrificing top fighters for big Fox cards. At the same time, you're still keeping casual interest and that might help your PPV cards. The year 2014 felt like pick one: a good PPV card or a decent card on Fox. It can't ever be that anymore if they want to finally get a big TV contract w/ ample control over their own content.

 

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3 hours ago, Elsalvajeloco said:

On FS1, it's a bit tougher because on Saturdays you're moving from live sports into more live sports (the UFC). The only transition you have is the stuff in the studio.

They tried all that with UFC 205 but I am not sure how much of all that worked. The history of MSG video during the FS1 prelims was probably the best video package they've ever done. It felt like a real big card but I don't know how much that could translate into PPV buys. If you didn't want to buy the show midway through the TV prelims, then I dunno what the hell could convince you to buy the PPV.

Somebody asked/said the exactly same thing in the Observer mailbag the other night. Meltzer's response basically was it will still be 13 PPVs, and the only thing that would change that is getting the desired new TV deal.

Keep in mind it was supposed to be more PPV's this year.  One got turned into an FS1 event.  So it was technically supposed to be 14. 

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