NCAAF 2024 - WEEKS ZERO & ONE

[SirFozzie]

we have a contender for catch of the year (non-acrobatic edition)

 

How did Hunter make that one.

[EVA]

Alright, halfway home on the P4 previews…

The Big 10

Champion: Look, they spent enough money to buy it his year—Ohio State should finally break through and win the league again this season. Between spending the GDP of a small country to import elite players like Caleb Downs and Quinshon Judkins, and Michigan’s inevitable step back due to roster changes, coaching changes, and a significantly more difficult schedule, the Buckeyes absolutely MUST win it all this season. It is MUST win for Ryan Day, if he wants to keep this job. Oregon, who took a similar approach to talent acquisition this year, will certainly challenge them—maybe even beat them in Eugene—but I do think B1G culture shock and the cross-country travel will catch up to the Ducks in the end.

Darkhorse: I kinda tipped this earlier in the week, but, man, everything is set up for Iowa to be right there on the doorstep of the B1G title game this year. If they’re even just a little bit better on offense now that Ferentz’s kid is out of there—like, just competent—they’re gonna be a heavy favorite against pretty much everybody on their schedule, besides Ohio State. Buy low on the Hawkeyes.

Disappointment: I almost went Michigan here but didn’t because I think they probably finish at 9-ish wins, which is still Top 25 range for a team with Michigan’s brand recognition. That said, I do think this team’s potential floor is as low as it’s been since pre-Covid. It very well could get very bad! But instead of being bold, I’m gonna play it safe and go with USC. They’re a fringe preseason Top 25 team based on name brand alone. They’re going to be figuring out entirely new offensive (post-Caleb Williams) and defensive (post-Grinch) identities, while also negotiating the culture shock of a new conference. High potential for another disappointing season and Lincoln Riley finding himself on the hot seat heading into 2025.

Spoiler: Yes, the time has come to believe in Nebraska. If you look at Matt Rhule’s track record in college, he always takes his lumps in year one and then takes a big step forward in year two. The Huskers are already good on defense (11th nationally in total defense last year), the trick is going to be getting better on offense. And much of that will ride on highly touted freshman QB Dylan Raiola. Which means there’s potential for wild variance in performance. It’s gonna be boom or bust, but on the weeks when it’s clicking, I think Nebraska is going to be good enough to take down some good teams, for the first time in a long time.

Most Likely to be Looking for a New Coach: There actually aren’t that many coaches in the B1G who are actually in danger of being fired this year. Lots of coaches who are in year 1 or 2, coaches who are doing well enough, and coaches who are still probably another bad year away from being in serious trouble. If I had to pick one, I would say Illinois. After having a bit of a breakthrough in year 2, Bret Bielema’s Illini regressed to another losing record in 2025. It was an agonizing 5-7 season, with all 5 of their wins coming by 7 points or less. If the ball took a couple of different bounces, they could have been 0-12. The vibes are not optimistic. AND they have a difficult schedule, facing Kansas OOC, visiting Nebraska and Penn State back to back in September, then drawing Michigan at home and Oregon away in October. Bert could very well not be coaching this team by November.

[EVA]

Tonight was a great start for Travis Hunter’s Heisman campaign. He was the difference in the game for Colorado. They just out-Travis Huntered NDSU.

[Brian Fowler]

Outside the two obvious front-runners, I think the Big Ten is full of a lot of "we don't know" teams.

Michigan should still be great on defense, but new head coach, pretty much completely new defensive staff, ten new starters on offense... Who knows how good they'll be. 

Lincoln Riley has never fielded an offense that wasn't very good or better, but he's also never had to face Big Ten defenses week in and week out, plus the defense is still a gigantic question mark (and USC has struggled especially against power running teams the previous two years, and, uh... Big Ten.) Who knows how good they'll be? 

If you thought Michigan lost a lot from the national title team last year, take a look at the runner up. Washington has a new head coach, virtually an entirely new staff, 9 new starters on defense, and literally an entirely new offense. I like Jedd Fisch, but who knows what this team will look like? 

Iowa has the schedule to make a run at least too the conference title game (though getting there and winning it are two different things) but how good will the offense be? I've no doubt the defense and special teams will be good, but if they're utterly incompetent on offense again, that's a cap on how good they can be. Tim Lester has to be an improvement on Brian Ferentz, and Kirk is reportedly letting him change everything about the offense except the zone blocking scheme... But his offenses didn't exactly light the MAC on fire when he was at Western Michigan. They will hopefully have better health at least. Who knows how much he can improve the offense?

---

And then there's the Ryan Day conundrum. Since getting the head coaching job, Ohio State has the third best winning percentage in the country. That are 56-8 under him (counting the three games he filled in for Urban in 2018.) The eight losses were all to teams that won at least ten games, and finished ranked. Seven of them finished top ten, six made the playoffs, four made the title game, and three were undefeated national champions. 

But he has two Big Ten titles and three losses to Michigan, and the two previous head coaches (not counting Luke Fickell as interim) both had won a Natty by year three. And he doesn't have a lot of big wins outside the one playoff victory over Clemson. A Rose Bowl win over Utah, a couple wins over good but not great ND teams, some wins over pretty good Penn State teams, one win over a decent Michigan team... But those are all good but not great wins. 

It's hard as hell to justify firing somebody that wins 11 games a year, but I think he needs to either beat Michigan and at least make the semis, or if he doesn't beat Michigan, he almost has to win the national title. He might not get fired, but the fan base will turn hard otherwise.

[EVA]

I don’t *think* Day gets fired even if he flops against Michigan and fails to win the conference again this year, but I think 2025 would absolutely be judgment day for him. Ohio State’s money people opened up the money hose in a manner only rivaled by Texas A&M in 2022, and maybe Ole Miss this year, too. They’re going to want to get their money’s worth, and I think he’ll be in big trouble if he doesn’t deliver it.

The good news for for him is that I think he probably will.

I hate to sound super reductionist when it comes to Michigan, but I think a lot of their success this year really depends on what they get out of Alex Orji. Even with all the changes and the harder schedule, they’re probably still Good Enough everywhere else to win like 9 or 10 games and probably be the 3rd or 4th B1G team in the playoff…*if* they figure out what to do with him. If they try to fit him into the traditional Harbaugh QB mold, I think it’s gonna go badly, and that’s when I think they might be in danger of hitting a much lower floor than usual. But if they play to his strengths, do way more QB run game, etc., I think they could be a problem for even Texas, Oregon, and Ohio State.

I’m really curious to see how they use Orji against Fresno this weekend. It’s a tricky spot, because you don’t want to (and shouldn’t need to) show too much against Fresno ahead of Texas, but at the same time you’d kinda like to know what you have at QB in a real game situation before such a big test.

[EVA]

One last thought about the B1G before I shift over to the SEC…

Both Ohio State and Penn State suffered disappointments last year. Ohio State still couldn’t get over the Michigan hump, and Penn State still couldn’t get over the Ohio State AND Michigan hump, remaining a distant 3rd in the B1G pecking order.

As we just discussed, Ohio State responded to that disappointment by opening up the money hose to unprecedented levels.

On the other hand, Penn State…just kinda went on, business as usual. They didn’t dramatically increase their activity in the NIL/portal realm. They didn’t radically shake up their coaching situation (yes, they have a new OC, but James Franklin goes through OC’s like some coaches go through sneakers; that’s nothing new). They seem content.

And the wild thing is, that’s probably going to work out for them! In the new 12-team playoff era, being the 3rd best team in the B1G (even if it’s a distant 3rd), and in a lot of years even the 4th best team, is going to get you in the playoffs. By doing nothing different at all, they’ll get to achieve the illusion that they’ve leveled up to being a national title contender. Franklin will probably even get another extension out of it. Tremendous work all around.

[Log]

10 hours ago, EVA said:

After having a bit of a breakthrough in year 2, Bret Bielema’s Illini regressed to another losing record in 2025.

How do you have this information already?!?!

Clearly Bielema is fine since my Illini are on pace for an undefeated season after taking out powerhouse Eastern Illinois 45-0 last night.

But seriously, you're right about last year being an agonizing season. In particular, I remember the Penn State game where our D made like four or five great stops in a row only for the offense to hand it right back over to them on dumb turnovers or just plain shitty play.

[EVA]

It did not seem fun! I hope it gets better!

[Pete]

8 minutes ago, Log said:

How do you have this information already?!?!

Clearly Bielema is fine since my Illini are on pace for an undefeated season after taking out powerhouse Eastern Illinois 45-0 last night.

But seriously, you're right about last year being an agonizing season. In particular, I remember the Penn State game where our D made like four or five great stops in a row only for the offense to hand it right back over to them on dumb turnovers or just plain shitty play.

Honestly, that's a big improvement seeing how they've struggled with some cupcakes at Memorial over the years.

[EVA]

Finally…

The SEC

Champion: No beating around the bush here—it’s Georgia. They’ve got one of the two or three most talented rosters in the country. They’ve got a consensus 1st rounder at QB (I personally am not so sure about that, but I mean…he is a very effective college QB). They went in the portal and brought in an elite RB. They’re gonna be real good. And they’re entering the session with the things that Kirby Smart and his mentor Nick Saban always loved the most—a chip on their shoulder and an axe to grind about how last season ended. They are coming to destroy. That said! They do have a very challenging schedule (games against Clemson, Bama, Texas, Ole Miss, and Tennessee), so it wouldn’t catch me off guard if they drop a rare regular season game. But in the end, I see them coming out on top.

Darkhorse: Typically, teams like Missouri don’t typically put together back-to-back 10+ win seasons in college football (they just don’t stack talent like perennial contenders do), but they were blessed by the new scheduling gods and really just have a 3-game conference schedule (at A&M and Bama, Oklahoma at home); if they take care of business in all the other games they’ll be favored in, hold serve against Oklahoma, and steal one of those road games, they have a great chance to be in the SEC title game. The Tigers bring back enough from last year’s breakthrough team (especially the starting QB and all of his primary receiving weapons) to do it.

Disappointment: Ok, let’s address the elephant in the room: Any time there’s a coaching change at a successful program, and especially when there’s a major shift in the personality and organization of the program, as there has been in the transition between Nick Saban and Karen Deboer, there’s a chance for things to go VERY WRONG in Year 1. So it would not totally surprise me if Bama went 8-4 or something like that. But I *think* they’re going to be better than people expect. Like maybe playoffs good. So I’m gonna go with LSU. Jayden Daniels covered over a LOT of problems for Bryan Kelly the past two seasons, and I’m not so sure that he’s found good alternative solutions yet. He shitcanned the whole defensive staff, which was warranted, but I really think it’s a personnel problem more than a coaching problem. And Kelly has not been great in the transfer portal. LSU is coming wayyyyy back down to Earth this season.

Spoiler: This was tough to pick because there are no fewer than 9 SEC teams in the Top 25 to start the season, and I think there’s a *significant* gulf between those top 9 and the rest of the SEC. So I guess I’m going to default to what is always the safest pick—Chaos Auburn. Despite upgrading their WR room, this is functionally still the same Auburn team from 2023, when they didn’t beat a single FBS team worth a damn, so I don’t see this as a breakthrough season for the Tigers. But they did play some good teams close (Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama), and it wouldn’t surprise me if they turned a game or two like that into wins this season. Oklahoma visiting Jordan-Hare in September is a pretty good upset alert, for starters.

Most Likely to be Looking for a New Coach: Conversely, lots to choose from here, with Billy Napier, Shane Beamer, Sam Pittman, and Clark Lea in some form of distress. I think Napier could be granted respite given how difficult Florida’s schedule is, as long they’re competitive. I’d put Beamer and Pittman at the very top, with the deciding factor being that Arkansas has seemingly already hired a potential Pittman replacement by bringing back BOBBY PETRINO to call plays (THE CALL IS COMING FROM INSIDE THE HOUSE). Much like one of his forerunners at Arkansas, Bret Bielema, Pittman has had some surprising early success, only for the crushing reality of coaching at Arkansas in the modern football landscape to settle in. The Hogs will have a different coach, sooner than later.

[EVA]

Well, one more thing…

Top 5 Group of 6 Contenders for the 12th Playoff Spot

1. Liberty: I regret to say the Flames are going 12-0, and they’ll be at the front of the conversation for this spot in December. Conference USA is trash. They don’t have a P4 team on their OOC schedule. They spend more money than anyone at their level, so they were able to keep their stud QB. They’re going 12-0.

2. Boise State: After a period of wandering in the wilderness, it does appear that we are finally in for another Good Boise Year. They have a difficult early game against Oregon, which they will surely lose, but a good showing would set them up to have a persuasive argument over Liberty *if* they win out the rest of the season.

3. Memphis: The consensus favorite to win the AAC. They have a big OOC game against Florida State in a couple of weeks that is looking a lot more winnable all of a sudden. If they pull the upset there and have a conference title in their back pocket come December, I think they’ll have a pretty strong case.

4. South Florida: I actually like South Florida more than Memphis this season. The Bulls mad a huge leap forward in Year 1 under Alex Golesh. He brought Josh Heupel’s offense to Tampa, and it proved to be a perfect fit for dynamic dual-threat QB Byrum Brown (3,000+ passing yards, 800+ rushing yards; only Heisman winner Jayden Daniels matched that level of productivity). Well, he’s back, and so is most of the offense and defense. I expect another step forward this season, and they could challenge for the AAC title. Their main problem, and the reason I have them below Memphis, is that they have two huge OOC games: at Alabama and home vs. Miami, both in September. A win in either of those games would be huge for them, but losses in both would make it very tough on their playoff case.

5. App State: Ok, this is where we start to have a stretch a little bit to find contenders. First, App will be one of, if not the best teams in the Sun Belt. They’re a favorite to win the title. So let’s say they manage to go undefeated (the SBC is a little down this year, so it could happen). Out of conference, they have a road trip to Clemson, which will be a tough game to win but, much like Boise going to Oregon, a good showing there could help them. THEN, they have Liberty at home. If they can knock Liberty from the ranks of unbeaten, they open a path for themselves to be in the conversation in December. I don’t think it’s likely, but it could happen.

Realistically, though, it’s probably Liberty, Boise, and/or whoever the AAC champ is in the conversation for the 12 spot.

[Tabe]

I would not be surprised if Ohio fires Day if they lose to Michigan a fourth straight time. Awfully hard to fire a coach who is something like 67-9 but the folks in Columbus judge based on how you do against Michigan. And they've been punked three straight years. Watching Michigan win a natty last year had to have burned as well. 

That said, Ohio beats Michigan this year. 

[Dolfan in NYC]

 

[Brian Fowler]

On Penn State; 

Last year they went 10-2, finished 10th in the CFP rankings, and then lost the Peach Bowl to Ole Miss. If they go 10-2 and finish tenth this season (and it's a real possibility. They would've made the playoffs six times in the last eight years if we had this format, with an average ranking those years of about 9.5) they probably make the playoffs, and ironically could very well end up playing at Ole Miss, lose, and finished more or less exactly where they did, but with their first ever playoff bid. Is that progress? Do they feel good about getting in? 

On the other hand, the schedule breaks pretty well for them. Tricky but winnable opener at West Virginia, a road trip all the way to USC, and they get the Buckeyes at home, while skipping Michigan, Oregon, and Iowa. There's a pretty clear path to 11-1, and if the newest OC makes some progress with the offense, they're one upset away from 12-0 and playing for the Big Ten title and maybe a shot at the top seed, especially given how brutal Georgia's schedule is. 

Even at 11-1, then losing a tough Big Ten title game and hosting and winning a first round game, I'm not sure they would actually be any better than they've been the last two seasons, just the beneficiaries of rapid change in the sport. But the path to something more is right there for them if Allar and the offense improve.

[Brian Fowler]

So apparently Michigan and Sherrone Moore haven't actually finalized his contract and signed and executed it. He's still working under the Memorandum of Understanding they signed in January (and actually expired in April.) According to USA Today, at least as of August 15th the only coach under contract is Wink.

So that's bizarre.

[hammerva]

18 hours ago, Dolfan in NYC said:

 

I also appreciate that a few of the dancers properly acknowledge their Tribal Chief beforehand 

Also speaking on Penn State on the other side, I haven't been this excited and terrified for a West Virginia Mountaineer game in a very long time.   Neal Brown should have been fired beginning of last year and Garrett Greene couldn't throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field.   But last year they finished 8-5 (should have been 9-4 if not that damn Hail Mary) and Garrett Greene showed that he has the potential to be more than just a really good running QB.    Now Greene is a sleeper top 5 QB in college football.   But was all a complete fluke.  Not really sure.  Got the #8 team in the country Penn State in Morgantown on a complete batshit crazy atmosphere.   Clearly Vegas thinks this game is going to be a challenge because it went from 11 to 7.5 in about a week.    I don't know if WVU will win but I definitely don't think it will be as easy as last year was. 

Edited August 31, 2024 by hammerva

[EVA]

Can’t find it now, but earlier this week I saw a heat map of Garrett Greene’s passing chart last year, and it basically looked like a U. Absolutely nothing happening more than 5 yards downfield over the middle. Just dink/dunk and the occasional deep shot outside the numbers.

I think it was a good example of Neal playing to strengths, but I do wonder if they can repeat that now that opposing defenses have had the offseason to fully digest those tendencies.

[EVA]

Saban just said “shit outta luck” on Gameday. We’ve never been more back.

[EVA]

Some good defense and some VERY conservative offense in UGA/CLEM so far.

[EVA]

Vandy watched what Diego Pavia did to Auburn last year and prayed, “Lord, I see what you’ve done for New Mexico State, and I want that for me.”

[hammerva]

from watching the 1st 2 weeks, receivers are get-away with a lot more push offs than previous years

as if losing is bad enough, there is now a horrible weather delay and we are stuck with watching Maryland vs Connecticut

Edited August 31, 2024 by hammerva

[EVA]

It doesn’t radically change my outlook on their season, because they’re Vanderbilt, but embracing the option game is looking like a smart decision. They’ve got some fight in ‘em.

On the other side of things, Kyren Drones looks overcoached.

Edited August 31, 2024 by EVA

[RIPPA]

I feel like this will be the last time we see Iowa score 40 for like the next decade

[Brian Fowler]

Reports of Virginia Tech being back appear to have been premature.

[hammerva]

well the sideline mics at the West Virginia game are still working good unfortunately.   Usually, you have to go to the news channels to hear that word on Fox 

By the way this Penn State vs West Virginia might be one of the worst officiated and instant replay games in a long time.  Mostly helping WVU but man when they missed calls it was by a ton

Edited August 31, 2024 by hammerva