2022 NCAAF - WEEK ONE

[Dolfan in NYC]

FIRST TIME ONLY TIME.  I HATE THIS GIMMICK

RANKINGZ~

#1 

#2 

#3 

#4 

#5 

 

They really don't deserve a gif that cool, but whatever, I'm tired.  

Anyway, first big games are: #11 Oregon @ #3 Georgia  and #5 ND @ #2 THE

[EVA]

Those are great logo games, but both will probably be over by halftime. Severely mismatched rosters.

Utah/Florida and Arkansas/Cincinnati are less glamorous but will probably be fun until the end. Unless Arkansas is even better than I think they’re going to be, in which case Cincy is getting rolled, too.

Edited August 30, 2022 by EVA

[Log]

The big game this week at our house is Illinois (my alma mater) vs. Indiana (my wife's). Obviously, both are football powerhouses, so it should be a barn-burner!

[Mister TV]

The Backyard Brawl is tomorrow!!!!! I'm more pumped for this than I was the ACC Championship Game last year or the Pitt - Enabler State game in 2016. Pitt is bringing back all of their legends for the game along with Dave "13-9" Wanstache! 

 

[Krone]

I can thank my lucky stars that Clash at the Castle is in the afternoon, because for some reason the ACC gods thought it would be a good idea to put Cuse/Louisville on in primetime! Fully expecting the beginning of Sean Tucker's Heisman campaign, because, well we don't have much else going for us.

[hammerva]

Only 12 hours away from the biggest game in Neal Brown's career.  whether he wants to admit or not.   PITT is definitely a better team although frankly we don't know how good.  And given that a number of people are looking at this game as an upset is less about West Virginia and more about how unsure they are about losing Kenny Pickett.    This is also probably the biggest game in JT Daniels career.  He has to prove that he could have been a starting QB at a high level or if he is the next Austin Kendall 

Also look forward to seeing a stadium filled with about 70% Mountaineer fans against a team where it's campus is about 20 miles away.  

Edited September 1, 2022 by hammerva

[EVA]

Very much looking forward to this game tonight. Both teams need to have hit the jackpot on a transfer QB to have the kind of season they want to have (a winning one for WVU, another trip to the ACC title game for Pitt). It seems unlikely that both did.

[Chaos]

I'm really looking forward to the Backyard Brawl tonight as well. I want to see Brown start having some success at WVU. Also, JT Daniels is kind of in no more excuses mode this season. Either he's what he was hyped up to be or he isn't, but the track record probably proves the latter.

[EVA]

Yeah, if you can’t get on the field over Stetson Bennett, you are probably not that dude.

[Mister TV]

3 hours ago, hammerva said:

Only 12 hours away from the biggest game in Neal Brown's career.  whether he wants to admit or not.   PITT is definitely a better team although frankly we don't know how good.  And given that a number of people are looking at this game as an upset is less about West Virginia and more about how unsure they are about losing Kenny Pickett.    This is also probably the biggest game in JT Daniels career.  He has to prove that he could have been a starting QB at a high level or if he is the next Austin Kendall 

Also look forward to seeing a stadium filled with about 70% Mountaineer fans against a team where it's campus is about 20 miles away.  

It's 3 miles from the campus to Acupuncture Stadium and it's going to be packed with Pitt fans. Also the whole "State vs. Neighborhood" line that WVU is pushing is hysterical, the state of West Virginia and Allegheny County(where Pittsburgh is located) have almost the same population.

[Log]

34 minutes ago, Mister TV said:

It's 3 miles from the campus to Acupuncture Stadium and it's going to be packed with Pitt fans. Also the whole "State vs. Neighborhood" line that WVU is pushing is hysterical, the state of West Virginia and Allegheny County(where Pittsburgh is located) have almost the same population.

It's West Virginia and basic math. Those two things do not mix.

[EVA]

I’m also interested in Penn State/Purdue tonight. On paper, PSU should handle them, but Week 1 conference road games are tricky, especially when the home team has a top 3 QB in the league. Boilermakers could make them sweat. And an upset would probably trigger MUCH consternation in Happy Valley after that contract extension they just gave Franklin.

[EVA]

BE ADVISED. I’m about to start dropping conference previews in here for the ACC, Big 12, and B1G ahead of those conferences playing meaningful games tonight. SEC and PAC-12 tomorrow. These are definitely not examples of professional writing, just stream of consciousness blurbs on whatever I think is most interesting or noteworthy about each team.

They also don’t include my projected conference standings. You’ve probably seen a hundred of those elsewhere, so I’m not wasting anybody’s time with that. Instead, I’ve grouped teams based on what my expectations are for them this season. So you’ll see Playoff Contenders (obvious), Conference Contenders (not playoff worthy but have a good shot to win their conference), Spoilers (not good teams per se but good enough to upset a good team), Fixer Uppers (teams with low expectations because they’re rebuilding), Carousel Candidates (shit’s gotta change or somebody’s getting fired), etc.

Teams are listed alphabetically in their groups.

ALSO I did not proofread this shit.

Edited September 1, 2022 by EVA

[EVA]

ACC

Playoff Contenders

Clemson: Much fun was had at the expense of Clemson last season, as is always the case when a perennial playoff team shows a moment of weakness. But despite their problems on offense, and QB specifically, Clemson still grinded out 10 wins, dropping their 3 losses by a combined 23 points (which included playing eventual national champion Georgia within one score). If they had gotten *anything* out of the QB position last year, they would’ve been ACC champs and playoff-bound again. The bones of this house are still good. Even with the departure of famed defensive coordinator Brent Venables, Clemson will boast one of the top two most talented defenses in the country, and they return a lot on an OL that actually kind of got their act together, especially in the running game, late in 2022. 

But, just like last season, the difference between a “disappointing” 10-win season and a CFP berth will be quarterback play. Can DJ Uiagalelei be better? Even if he can’t, Dabo Swinney actually has options behind him this year, with the return of Hunter Johnson (a steady hand transferring back from Northwestern to finish his career) and 5-star freshman Cade Klubnik. If DJU struggles again, I think Dabo will make the switch, just as he did in 2018, when he moved on from Kelly Bryant to Trevor Lawrence. Dabo bet on himself this offseason, choosing to promote new, unproven coordinators from within on offense and defense. I think you’ll see a sense of urgency from him to prove it wasn’t a mistake. His legacy depends on it.

Miami: I’ve talked this up a little on the board already, but if everything clicks with the transition to the Mario Cristobal regime, there is a very real chance for Miami to shoot the moon, straight into the playoffs. The truth is, Miami wasn’t *that* far off from being a really good team last year. They closed out the year winning 5 of their last 6 (though the lone flop against a bad FSU team was understandably hard to swallow and likely doomed any chance Manny Diaz had to stick around), despite being a very young team. The difference maker on the field was freshman QB Tyler Van Dyke, who many NFL scouts are already drooling over as a 1st round pick. And recent history has shown that 1st round-caliber QBs can elevate teams with a 50-60% blue chip ratio (which Miami has this season) to the playoffs. Their chances are certainly helped by an exceptionally weak Coastal division, in which their biggest challenger may be themselves. Will Cristobal’s new coaching staff be cohesive? Will the players buy into a radically different culture? Will Van Dyke shine as brightly, moving from Rhett Lashlee’s QB-friendly spread offense to Josh Gattis’s system, which never produced particularly impressive QB play at Michigan? If the answer to all those questions is yes, Miami has a great chance to meet Clemson for the ACC championship and a spot in the CFP.

 

Conference Contenders

NC State: Under Dave Doeren, the Wolfpack has become a model of the most frustrating kind of consistency. They have won 8 to 9 games for 4 of the last 5 seasons, but they can never seem to get over the hump. The hump being Clemson. Of course, they did beat the Tigers in Raleigh last season, as they do every 10 years or so, but soul-crushing close losses at Miami and Wake Forest left them in 2nd place in the Atlantic yet again. With 10 starters back on defense and the return of their best QB since Russell Wilson (his name is Devin Leary), though, there’s reason to believe this could be their year. The schedule certainly looks favorable...with one exception: They must travel to Clemson, where they haven’t won a game since 2002, when Phillip Rivers was playing QB. But if Leary can be that good, or if Clemson truly is on the downside of their dynasty, then it very well could happen again.

Pitt: From purely a roster perspective, this looks like a back-to-the-usual-8-and-4 season for Pat Narduzzi’s team. Pitt is not the kind of program that can lose a 1st round QB and the nation’s best receiver and just reload the next year. Especially not after also running off the offensive coordinator who drew up the record-breaking offense. So you can expect a big dropoff on that side of the ball. Pitt has rolled the dice on USC transfer Kedon Slovis, in hopes that he will finally bounce back from the injury that derailed his Trojan career and catch lightning in a bottle again, but the verdict is still out on that, and there are real questions of how well his playing style will fit in new offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr.’s scheme. Fortunately for Pitt, Narduzzi defense will Narduzzi defense, so they’re going to be in most games. And the Coastal is the pits, and the Panthers have a decent draw in cross-division play. If Miami flounders in Cristobal Year One, Pitt is the obvious (only?) candidate to win the Coastal crown.

 

Spoilers

Boston College: BC has developed into a respectable program in two years under Jeff Hafley, but what makes them a dangerous team for unsuspecting foes in 2022 is one man: QB Phil Jurkovec. He’s another ACC QB that pro scouts have the vapors for right now. He missed most of last season with a broken hand, and he’s back this year with hopes to play himself into a Day 1 pick. His OL looks like trash, so that’s keeping me from getting fully on board a dark horse Golden Eagle hype train, but his athleticism gives him some options when the play is breaking down. If he gets hot, BC can be a threat to any team on their schedule, including Clemson.

Florida State: Are the Noles capital-b Back in 2022? Nope. Are the Noles going to have a winning record for the first time since 2017 (!!!)? YES. And that means they’re probably springing some upsets on teams they’re not expected to beat. After an ugly 0-4 start in 2022, the Noles actually closed on a 5-3 run. They played their best when dual-threat QB Jordan Travis was at the controls (5-2, including the aforementioned Miami upset), and he’s back for a big junior season, playing behind what will probably be the best FSU OL since Jimbo Fisher just stopped recruiting them, like, 8 years ago. Outside the ACC, rebuilding LSU and Florida should be on alert.

Wake Forest: This was likely going to be a back-to-reality season for Wake even before the unfortunate news of Sam Hartman’s health issues. It’s just hard for programs at Wake’s level to maintain championship-caliber consistency, even across two seasons. Typically, Wake is only really good when the Atlantic division is down and, brother, the Atlantic is not looking down this year. Still, when/if Hartman gets back on the field, Wake’s wacky slow-mo RPO offense is a threat to score a lot of points on just about anybody. Now, can they stop anybody? Probably not. But they probably win at least a couple of those shootouts.

 

Fixer Uppers

To give you an idea of just how dire the Coastal division is, we have three teams that are basically doing tear-it-down-to-the-studs rebuild jobs with new coaches at Duke, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. I would expect to see a lot of parity amongst these teams with no one crab being able to claw their way over the others to escape the bucket at the bottom of the division. Virginia does have a live arm at quarterback in Brennan Armstrong, but he’ll be playing behind an all-new OL and in a new scheme under Tony Elliot, which is going to be very different from what the Hoos were doing under Bronco Mendenhall. 

The fair thing to do is check back in on all these teams in 2023.

 

Carousel Candidates

Georgia Tech: The Yellowjackets won just three games in each of coach Geoff Collins’s first three seasons in Atlanta. This offseason, there was a mass exodus of whatever remaining talent GT had left (for example, star RB Jahmyr Gibbs to Alabama). To make matters worse, their out of conference schedule includes Ole Miss, UCF, and, as always, Georgia. It’s highly likely that they don’t won’t even reach 3 wins this year. It’s just a matter of when, not if, Collins is fired.

Louisville: The Cardinals and Scott Satterfield have had a contentious relationship for the last few years, as Satterfield has brazenly sought out a number of other jobs while amassing a sub-.500 record in 3 seasons. It seems all parties involved are ready for this relationship to end. And yet...The Cards return do-everything star QB Malik Cunningham, a lot of talent around him, and a pretty decent defense. Another 6-win season and a bowl game are not out of the question. But will that be enough? Louisville is spending a LOT of money in the NIL recruiting space right now. But at what point do they decide to stop throwing good money after bad on their head coach?

North Carolina: To be clear, UNC leadership does not seem all that displeased with Mack Brown as their head coach. They have extended his deal after every season at Chapel Hill so far. But, thus far, Brown’s tenure has yielded a lot of .500 football and little hope for breaking through to championship contention, despite the state of North Carolina experiencing a boom in elite football talent. The Tar Heels’ 2022 hopes seem to be pinned on freshman QB Drake Maye having a 2019 Sam Howell-esque breakout. But he doesn’t have 2019 Tar Heel talent around him, and even Howell struggled to be as productive with the meager talent surrounding him last year. After UNC produces another middling season, I could very easily see Mack Brown calling it a career and stepping aside so someone else can try to wake the sleeping giant at UNC.

Syracuse: It’s never a good sign with an offensive-minded HC has to call in an outsider to fix his offense, and that’s what’s happened at Syracuse this year. Dino Babers’ record at Syracuse is Scott Frost-esque in the way that it sandwiches one exceptional season (10 wins and a top 15 finish in 2018!) between soooo much losing. The Orange actually return their starting QB, a star RB (Sean Tucker, who ran for 1,500 yards last season), and eight starters on defense, so on paper this would seem like a possible “up” year for Syracuse and a saving grace for Babers. But their schedule is rough, and experience can only offset so much when it comes to a talent deficit. I’m afraid this is it for Dino. I’m not sure what a reasonable expectation is for Syracuse football in the modern era—maybe this is it!—but at a certain point, you at least have to try something different

 

[EVA]

BIG 12

Playoff Contender

Oklahoma: I think a lot of people—Oklahoma fans included!—have been too quick to write the Sooners’ obituary post-Lincoln Riley. Even with their losses to the transfer portal, this is still the most talented roster in the conference. And though the portal taketh, it also giveth; in the Sooners’ case, it produced Dillon Gabriel to replace Caleb Williams at QB. Gabriel may not be much of a pro prospect, but he’s been a great college QB, and he had arguably his most successful season playing for...new Oklahoma OC Jeff Lebby, who is just as sharp of a young mind as Riley was when Bob Stoops brought him to Norman years ago. It would actually not surprise me at all if Oklahoma IMPROVES on offense this season. Lebby will Mickey Mouse some points on the board. And you better believe that Brent Venables is not going to accept the level of defensive play that Oklahoma fans have come to accept during the Riley era. They won’t be elite, but they won’t be the walkover that they have been. With most of their biggest games at home (Baylor, Oklahoma State), the Sooners start this season in the driver seat of the Big 12.

 

Conference Contender

Baylor: The Bears have been the trendy pick to repeat as Big 12 champions, and there’s certainly a lot to like in Waco. Warrior-poet-coach Dave Aranda has weirdly turned out to be a good fit in the house flipping capitol of the world. They return a strong core on defense and the OL, which typically indicates year-to-year stability. However, they lost nearly all of their offensive production (top two RBs, 4 of top 5 WRs, starting QB), and it is difficult for a program at Baylor’s level to reload with championship caliber offensive skill talent. There’s certainly reason to believe Blake Shapen will be a more complete QB than Gerry Bohanon, who was really more of a runner, but it’s unclear if he’ll have playmakers to get the ball to. I think Baylor can still win the Big 12, especially if Oklahoma underperforms my expectations, but I just don’t think they’re going to score enough to have the kind of record you need to be a true playoff contender.

 

Spoiler

Texas:  The Longhorns are a still a long way off from being a championship contender, owing largely to deficiencies on both sides of the line of scrimmage. But they are so loaded with elite skill position talent on offense, they are a threat to put the pieces together and beat anybody on their schedule at a moment’s notice. I include Alabama in that. Xavier Worthy is real tough to cover. Bijan Robinson is real tough to tackle. Quinn Ewers is going to make a ton of mistakes and probably cost Texas some games, but he’s also going to make some phenomenal plays if he’s even half what people think he is. And, if nothing else, Steve Sarkisian knows how to draw up some plays. Texas will win at least one shootout with an opponent far better than them this season.

 

High Plains Drifters—The Big 12 has this middle class of teams that was really difficult for me to categorize. Basically, these are your 5-4 and 4-5 teams. Their season could easily drift to either side of .500.

Iowa State: Okay, this is the part where I point out that I correctly called the Cyclones falling back to the pack last year, despite all their returning talent. And guess what? Now all that talent is gone. Fortunately, Matt Campbell is a great coach, and he’s built this program for stability, so this is not a dire, full-on rebuild situation. But they are looking at another 7 or 8-win season, while they wait for their current core of players to mature into (hopefully) making another run at a championship in a couple of years.

Kansas State: The Wildcats are the most compelling of these middle-tier teams, and I was sorely tempted to place them in the spoiler category. I’m just not sure what to make of their potential this season. On one hand, they have perhaps the most dynamic player in the conference in do-everything RB Deuce Vaughn. On the other, they’ve pinned their QB hopes on Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez, to whom throwing the ball accurately comes about as naturally as palm trees growing in Manhattan, Kansas. However, I’ve heard some rumblings of K-State embracing a spread option attack that will lean more on Martinez’s athleticism than his pocket passing ability. If that’s true, and it works, the Wildcats could be a headache in this conference.

Oklahoma State: Last year was an interesting reversal of fortune for the Cowboys. Typically an offense first, defense optional program, OK State produced an elite defense in 2022...which it desperately needed, given its uncharacteristic offensive struggles. Those struggles started with QB Spencer Sanders, who is back for his senior season. Again, some might suggest that a senior QB is likely to improve, but we’ve seen a lot of tape on Sanders, and I think he just is what he is, at this point. And with the loss of the Cowboys’ go-to receiver and workhorse RB from 2022, it’s unclear who will pick up his slack. The defense suffered some key losses in the back 7, and they lost their DC to Ohio State, to add insult to injury. While I wouldn’t call this a rebuilding year, the Cowboys definitely look to be stuck in limbo this season.

 

Fixer Uppers

Kansas: The Jayhawks showed some life late last season, upsetting Texas and playing within one score of TCU and West Virginia. The catalyst for that resurgence seemed to be dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels, who started those last three games and returns as the full-time starter in 2022. The Hawks bring back 9 starters on offense and 7 on defense. There’s reason to believe they could be an even better team this season. BUT, as I’ve harped on before, experience can only compensate for a lack of talent so much. And their conference schedule does them no favors, with all of their most winnable games on the road. It’s possible they finish the season as a better team without a better record. I really think 2023 is the year to finally watch out for an upwardly mobile Kansas.

TCU: After two decades under Gary Patterson, the Horned Frogs will take the field with a radically different head coach this fall. Sonny Dykes is an Air Raid disciple, and you’re going to see TCU throwing the ball around more than they have in a long time. But do they have the talent to execute that kind of offense? And is there any hope of a quick turnaround after an abysmal 2021 on defense? I think Dykes is a good coach, but one thing he has never been is a quick turnaround artist. Not at Louisiana Tech. Not at Cal. Not at SMU. I don’t see that changing here. The Horned Frogs are going to take some lumps this season before emerging as a better team in 2023.

Texas Tech: This is another tear-it-down-to-the-studs rebuilding job. New coach Joey McGuire is a Texas high school legend, and he was specifically hired to recruit the heck out of Texas high schools and slowly dig the Red Raiders out of the hole they’ve been in for the past decade (losing records in 7 of their last 11 season). This is a long-term project. No one is expecting results in 2022, nor should they. However, there is one intriguing piece to watch this season: McGuire hired offensive coordinator Zach Kittley away from Western Kentucky after he transformed the Hilltoppers into an offensive juggernaut in just one season. Obviously, the Big 12 is a very different ballgame from Conference USA, but that’s worth paying attention to. If he can do it again, the Red Raiders can at least be a headache for opponents, rather than a walkover game.

 

Carousel Candidate

West Virginia: Okay, so hear me out: There really haven’t been many outward signals that WVU is unhappy with Neal Brown. But he’s below .500 through three seasons, and bringing in a new coordinator to revamp your offense when your background is as an OC definitely communicates a certain sense of desperation. If he delivers another .500 season, and on paper that looks like the *best* case scenario with a very real possibility it could be much worse than that, you have to think the power players at WVU are going to begin looking at their options. Like so many teams this season, the Mountaineers hopes are riding on a transfer QB, JT Daniels. But if your hopes are riding on a guy who couldn’t beat out future undrafted free agent Stetson Bennett at Georgia...well, I wouldn’t get them too high.

[EVA]

BIG 10

Playoff Contenders

Michigan: On offense, I think Michigan’s baseline expectations are...2021 Part 2. Which is not a bad place for them to be at all, considering that got them over the hump versus Ohio State and into the CFP. But to get to the point where they can actually compete once they get there, and to consistently beat Ohio State when they don’t have a super elite defense (as they did in 2021), they have to get more dynamic and explosive on offense. To that end, it would help the Wolverines a lot if J.J. McCarthy made The Leap in his sophomore year and finally gave Jim Harbaugh the star QB he’s lacked essentially his entire tenure at Michigan. If Ronnie Bell is back to 100% at WR, that would help out, as well. Because I think Michigan is going to NEED more from its offense in 2022. Even a program like Michigan doesn’t lose *two* elite edge rushers without missing a beat. Having two capital-d Dudes at that spot makes it so much easier on the rest of the defense. And the fact that they just took a late flyer on troubled edge rusher Eyabi Anoma suggests to me that they may not even have one Dude to replace those guys, let alone two. But even if that gamble pays off, I would expect the Wolverines to take a sizable step back on defense, though they’ll still be good.

Fortunately, they have a very favorable schedule, with nearly all of their big games taking place at home, save an October cross-divisional trip to Iowa (always a tricky place to play) and the finale at Ohio State. I think it’s very likely Big Blue is 11-0 or 10-1 heading into that game, with another chance to beat the Buckeyes and punch their ticket to the CFP.

Ohio State: Not much needs to be said about the Buckeye offense. #1 pick at QB, best WR corps in the country, elite RB, at worst a “good” OL. This offense could rival 2019 LSU and 2020 Alabama in terms of gobbling up ~90% of all available yards per game. And with numbers like that, they don’t have to be a whole lot better on defense to win the B1G and get back to the playoffs...but they do need to at least be a little better. On that end, new DC Jim Knowles (architect of last year’s excellent OKST defense) is going to be more multiple and aggressive, which should do more to help cover up for the fact that OSU is lacking in Bosas and Chase Young’s right now. At the end of the day, you still need to have those dudes to be elite on defense, so there’s a cap on how much better the Buckeyes can be, but I expect them to be good enough to win a natty. And, boy, does Ryan Day need to get that done soon. He’s far from in danger of losing his job, but with each passing year without a natty to his name, he confirms Jim Harbaugh’s suspicion that he’s one of those “born on third base” kind of guys.

 

Missing Pieces—Basically, all of these teams are exceptional in at least one aspect of the game and/or have a strong overall roster, but they’re missing the one key component that unlocks their potential. If they find it over the course of the season, they can be contenders. If not, they’re going to be very middle-of-the-road.

Michigan State: Perhaps no other team played the transfer portal better than Michigan State in 2021. They significantly outperformed expectations, thanks in large part to hitting a surprising jackpot with transfer RB Kendall Walker III, who played his way into Heisman contention and almost single-handedly willed the Spartans to victory at times (most notably an incredible performance against Michigan). And, despite bringing back their starting QB and a productive WR1, it’s unclear how this offense works without the KW3 dynamo at its core. Can they strike transfer gold again? Maybe. Nobody saw Walker coming, that’s for sure. But I have them pegged for serious regression in 2022 until another star reveals himself.

Minnesota: Much like Penn State below, I’m not sure what value there really is in returning an extremely-average-at-best senior quarterback. Tanner Morgan has never been the same QB since he lost elite receivers Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson after 2019. And PJ Fleck has not had any success at finding replacements for the guys heading into 2022. Until they find those outside-the-numbers playmakers again, Minnesota is going to continue to persist in this (very respectable!) middle ground, where they play just good enough defense and run the ball just well enough to win more than they lose, but never break through into the B1G title mix.

Penn State: Beware this Penn State team. And by that, I mean “Don’t let their 2022 record deceive you into thinking they’re better than they are.” They have a very favorable schedule, with a relatively easy draw from the West and Michigan as their only major road test in the conference. Unless they go off the rails, this is almost a default 9-win schedule. And they have some other stuff that looks good on paper, too; like a returning three-year starter at QB in Sean Clifford. But all those starts don’t change the fact that...he’s not particularly good? I mean, he’s fine. But he’s never been “take over and win a big game” good. Penn State under James Franklin has only really won consistently when they had great defense and a great running game. They lacked the running game last year, and they fell flat. Fortunately, they look to have another great defense in 2022 (especially on the DL, they could be a big problem for Ohio State and Michigan), but where is the running game coming from? They seem to have their hopes pinned on incoming freshman Nick Singleton being the real deal. But he’ll be running behind a revamped OL that may or may not be up to the task. If that comes together, they’re a threat to steal this conference. But I’ve got to see it on the field before I’m ready to entertain that as a serious possibility.

Wisconsin: The Badgers are LOADED at running back like they were in the glory years of Wisconsin football. Unfortunately, they lost a ton of talent off last year’s top-ranked defense, and while they should still be rock solid, because their defense almost always has been under Jim Leonhard as DC, they’re going to significantly regress. Which means that, despite how good their running game is going to be, the Badgers are going to need a heck of a lot more out of QB than they’ve gotten from Graham Mertz so far. He was one of the worst P5 quarterbacks last year, and I didn’t see any real improvement over the course of the season. I don’t think there’s any reason to believe he’s going to suddenly put it together and be a difference maker at that position as a junior. The B1G West looks wide open in 2022, so you can’t rule the Badgers out of making another trip to Indianapolis, but I think QB will keep them at home on championship Saturday.

 

Spoilers

Iowa: The good news—the Hawkeyes return most of the key players from last year’s great defense, which almost single-handedly carried the team to the B1G title game. The bad news—they also return most of the key players from an offense that finished in the bottom third *of the nation* in 2022. Except their best player, RB Tyler Goodson. I think it’s highly likely that the Hawkeyes repeat the script from 2022: Look absolutely awful on offense but create enough havoc and turnovers on defense to squeak out a division title. The bad news for Iowa is that they draw both Michigan and Ohio State out of the East. So they’re potentially spotting the rest of the West two L’s before a game is even played. Still...If you turn over the ball 4 times against them, which is something they’re very good at making you do, they can beat you. Especially at Kinnick Stadium.

Maryland: The Terps are going to live on a wing and a prayer this season. They have the 2nd most talented QB in the conference in Taulia Tagovailoa and some a couple of terrific receives to pair with his talent. But their defense was atrocious last season and doesn’t look much better in 2022. Basically, in games where Maryland’s OL can protect Tagovailoa, the Terps are a legit threat to outscore any opponent, besides maybe Ohio State. Their firepower is potentially *that* potent. They’ll beat somebody unexpected. But when they can’t protect him, it’s going to be ugly. Real ugly. I think 7 wins is a hard ceiling for this team.

Purdue: The Boilermakers have become an extremely one-dimensional team under Jeff Brohm, but it’s a heck of a dimension. They enter this season without the services of elite WR David Bell, but they return one of the conference’s best QBs, Aidan O’Connell, and perhaps one of the nation’s best TEs, Payne Durham. They’re going to continue to put up a lot of yards and a lot of points (though they’re never going to reach their scoring potential unless they get better at running the ball—they were worst in the B1G last season). The defense returns a lot of starters from a surprisingly okay unit in 2021, so they should be respectable again in 2022. Stealing a win at home against Penn State to kick off the season is not out of the realm of possibility. If they can protect the ball better and finish more drives this year, they could find themselves in Indianapolis.

 

Fixer Uppers

Illinois: The Illini showed a little more fight than people expected in 2021, nearly clawing their way to a .500 record. But it’s also fair to say they caught some breaks along the way in some of those close victories. As a program, I think they’re further away from being a winning team than last year’s results might lead one to believe. Bret Bielema brought in a new OC from UTSA to revamp the offense. I think we’re still a year away from beginning to see what this team can be.

Northwestern: I know it seems weird to be kicking dirt in Northwestern’s face so soon after they embarrassed Nebraska, but I really think the outcome of that game said more about the state of Nebraska under Scott Frost than Northwestern. Because, y’all, this roster is not good. I think Pat Fitzgerald is a good enough coach to get the Wildcats to some wins over similarly situated programs, but I think the transfer portal/NIL era is going to be the doom of Northwestern as an occasional B1G championship game participant. 3-9 years (like 2019 and 2021) are going to become much more common in Evanston. Although beating Nebraska means they’re likely going slightly over that line this year.

Rutgers: Fortunately for Rutgers, Indiana has the cellar of the B1G East staked out for the next little while, but it’s really going to be tough for them to significantly improve their record every year as long as “the B1G East” is a thing. Which it won’t be for much longer. Fortunately for Greg Schiano, the Rutgers administration seems willing to be very patient with him as he rebuild this program from the ground up.

 

Carousel Candidate

Indiana: I’m not even a Hoosier, and I was heartbroken by the outcome of the 2020 season. I hated seeing them miss out on a chance to play in the B1G title game because of Covid technicalities. I’ve recovered since then, but I’m afraid the Indiana football program has not. I’ve talked a lot about how hard it is for programs at Indiana’s level to maintain championship-caliber play, but it really feels like Indiana got its heart ripped out in 2020. They’ve gone to the portal to try to get an infusion of fresh talent to jumpstart this thing, but the talent they came out with hasn’t been very impressive (see: Missouri QB Connor Bazelak). I see *maybe* two conference wins on their schedule right now. Maybe 4 wins overall. That’s the ceiling. And if they don’t even hit that, I think Indiana moves on.

Nebraska: I don’t know what else to even say about this Scott Frost situation. It’s like he has a mental block on winning close games. Again, on paper, this looks like a solid 7-win-or-so team, so I suppose it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Nebraska can rebound from taking an L in a very unique circumstance and still have a nice season. But they’ve looked like a solid team for the last couple of seasons, and we know how that turned out. It’s just part of Scott Frost’s culture to lose. He gone.

[Pete]

15 years ago, the kick was BLOOOOOOOOOCKED!!!!!!

[EVA]

I love that Pitt had a record-setting, high-flying offense last year, and Narduzzi was like, “Yeah, but you know what would be better? Getting under center with a fullback and throwing the ball fewer than 10 times in a half. NARD BALL, BABY.”

[EVA]

Conversely, WVU is like CHUCK IT UP EVERY DURN PLAY, JAY TEE.

[Mister TV]

20 minutes ago, EVA said:

I love that Pitt had a record-setting, high-flying offense last year, and Narduzzi was like, “Yeah, but you know what would be better? Getting under center with a fullback and throwing the ball fewer than 10 times in a half. NARD BALL, BABY.”

When you have a running back like Hammond Jr. why wouldn’t you do that? 

[EVA]

JT Daniels getting KILT out there right now.

[JLowe]

Quinn Ewers is going to make mistakes, but so did Hudson Card and Casey Thompson, and he has a better arm than either of them; Casey had a gunslinger mentality and a peashooter arm. Also, the Texas OL is going to be vastly improved from last year. We will be starting two true freshmen in game one, 5* Kelvin Banks at LT and early enrollee Cole Hutson at RG, and good likelihood by the end of the year 5* Devon Campbell at one of the guard spots and massive Cam Williams at RT. Losing transfer WR Isaiah Neyor for the year is tough, he was going to take some pressure off Worthy.

The DL is going to have a solid to excellent interior and struggle on the Edge, especially at pass rush. The transfer LB from James Madison is looking like a steal, which may open up DeMarvion Overshown to focus more on rushing the passer from his hybrid LB/safety/edge position.

Apparently, our kicking game is going to be an adventure.

I'm thinking 8 wins is expected, 9 would be nice, if they can do 10 then shit got crazy.

[EVA]

Purdue just finished a drive with a goal line run! Not great news for Penn State!

[EVA]

JT Daniels wishes he was running that Pitt playbook right now. Been getting crushed every drop back since midway through the 2nd quarter. 

[EVA]

ESPN just put up a graphic that showed Pitt has been wildly more successful tonight when operating out of the shotgun rather than under center, and somehow that led the announcers to laud the merits of Pitt going under center. Lol wut.

Louis Riddick had clearly been Nard Pilled.