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2022 NCAAF OFF-SEASON


EVA
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30 minutes ago, Brian Fowler said:

Also, if anything breaks the ACC grant of rights stranglehold, the B1G should push hard to get at least one of the two Florida schools and not let the SEC just have the whole state.

Maybe take a stab at a Texas school, too, even if both the prize catches have already been gobbled.

UVA and UNC will be the “southern” teams the B1G adds, with Washington, Oregon, UCLA, USC, Arizona and Colorado for the western expansion. 

This isn’t just about TV money, there’s a population and brain drain in most of the B1G states, adding schools in states where that population is moving to is a factor in all of this. 

Edited by Mister TV
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2 hours ago, Mister TV said:

UVA and UNC will be the “southern” teams the B1G adds, with Washington, Oregon, UCLA, USC, Arizona and Colorado for the western expansion. 

This isn’t just about TV money, there’s a population and brain drain in most of the B1G states, adding schools in states where that population is moving to is a factor in all of this. 

A couple things about Arizona:

One being that Arizona and Arizona State are governed by the same BOT that places an emphasis on equity between both universities. Zero percent chance they split up in any kind of realignment. B1G would have to take both or neither.

Arizona in general is an underperforming state from a football perspective. At the surface level, it has a booming population that would seem to make it an attractive acquisition, but when you look deeper, you see that most of the population boom is being driven by Hispanic/Latino people, who participate in and watch American football at *significantly* lower rates than White and Black populations. So bringing in Arizona doesn’t necessarily tap you into a hotbed of high school football talent nor a particularly invested audience for college football games. The value of bringing in those schools is sketchy.

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Washington/Oregon to the B1G  makes sense now, it would give some shorter trips for the other two west coast based teams now.

The big question is how does the B1G get to 20 teams. Do they take Cal and Stanford, or do they go after North Carolina and someone else from the ACC?

Whatever is left of the Pac 12 might be better off adding to their conference instead of joining the Big 12 right away. If they could flip BYU from the Big 12 and then add Boise State from the Mountain West, that's not a terrible conference, and your travel time stays close to the same. Maybe try and steal Gonzaga as a non-football playing member.

After the ACC loses a few teams, West Virginia and UCF can slot in there.

Anyway, North Carolina is now the biggest prize for either the SEC or B1G.

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Cal is a hard no. It’s legitimately questionable if anybody at Cal even cares about what happened yesterday, so low is their interest/investment in football these days.

I don’t think Stanford would be near the top of the B1G’s list but if they are looking to just fill a spot, then Stanford’s academic reputation certainly fits a narrative that the B1G likes to tell itself. So they would be attractive in that way.

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I'm sure Cal cares about money.  Yes, Berkley's not exact short on it, but hey, what's a few million more if their teams can make it for, essentially free.

The B1G would almost certainly try to grab Stanford, as that gives them access to the San Francisco media market.  (As does Cal, for that matter.)

I'm wondering if the Arizonas would interest the SEC. They definitely seem like more a 'cultural' fit there than the other conferences. 

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Posted (edited)

If you have USC/UCLA, you already have all of California. Don’t need anyone else to unlock specific sub-markets.

At this point, with the exception of NC/VA, everyone really needs to be thinking brands more so than markets.

Edited by EVA
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1 hour ago, EVA said:

Cal is a hard no. It’s legitimately questionable if anybody at Cal even cares about what happened yesterday, so low is their interest/investment in football these days.

I don’t think Stanford would be near the top of the B1G’s list but if they are looking to just fill a spot, then Stanford’s academic reputation certainly fits a narrative that the B1G likes to tell itself. So they would be attractive in that way.

I can see Stanford if the B1G can land Notre Dame, it gives basketball and Olympics sports three games/events close together on West Coast trips, Notre Dame keeps a traditional rival on the schedule which leaves a non-conference game slot open, and the whole “we’re an academic conference” thing gets a boost. 
 

If the B1G does end up snagging ND would they stop at 18? The money is going to be huge, so why cut anyone else in.

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Posted (edited)

This is going to be so hard on the non-revenue sports. The volleyball teams are going to have to take ~8 road trips to the Midwest or further every year, and it's not like pro sports where they can just stay on the road for two weeks or whatever. 

Edit: in football, you can set the schedule that they only have to go to other Big Ten areas four games a year, and put them all on Saturdays. And other teams will only go to L.A. max twice a year. Assuming they stay at 3 nc and 9 conference games, you set up so the year USC has five road games is also the year they go to UCLA, and vice versa to cut down on ever having 5 long trips.

But non-revenue? They play games any random day and will have upwards of ten road trips a year. That's gonna be brutal.

Edited by Brian Fowler
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Posted (edited)

Remember earlier this year when the ACC and PAC-12 squashed the playoff expansion plan that would've given their leagues auto bids?

As incredibly stupid as that looked then, it looks way worse now. I can't imagine the Big 10 and SEC are gonna get behind that idea now when they both clearly will benefit a lot more if there's as many at large bids as possible. Unless the two of them just decide to do 4 team conference championship mini-tournaments and then match the winners up and just drop everybody else essentially down to a lower level.

Edited by Brian Fowler
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On 7/3/2022 at 6:00 AM, Brian Fowler said:

Remember earlier this year when the ACC and PAC-12 squashed the playoff expansion plan that would've given their leagues auto bids?

As incredibly stupid as that looked then, it looks way worse now. I can't imagine the Big 10 and SEC are gonna get behind that idea now when they both clearly will benefit a lot more if there's as many at large bids as possible. Unless the two of them just decide to do 4 team conference championship mini-tournaments and then match the winners up and just drop everybody else essentially down to a lower level.

Definitely a "cut off your nose to spite your face" situation and just a terrible one. There was really no good reason not to do the expansion, but the PAC-12's feelings were hurt and the ACC had some dumb reason like "we have other issues we should be focusing on" like they can't handle doing two things at once. Now the Big 10 and SEC will just do whatever they want, they don't need the other conferences. Hell they may vote for an expansion with no automatic bids and just assume the entire playoff will be from their conferences to get them even more money.

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49 minutes ago, Kevin Wilson said:

Definitely a "cut off your nose to spite your face" situation and just a terrible one. There was really no good reason not to do the expansion, but the PAC-12's feelings were hurt and the ACC had some dumb reason like "we have other issues we should be focusing on" like they can't handle doing two things at once. Now the Big 10 and SEC will just do whatever they want, they don't need the other conferences. Hell they may vote for an expansion with no automatic bids and just assume the entire playoff will be from their conferences to get them even more money.

Hell, B1G structures it right, they can finally force Notre Dame's hand.

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Dennis Dodd is reporting that the Big 12 is trying to add 6 teams from the Pac 12.  

Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah are specifically mentioned.   The other two are believed to be Oregon and Washington.  

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I don't see Notre Dame leaving their independent status. I also wonder how stuck they are with the ACC given that all of their other sports are with them. Someone ran the financials and I want to say ND would be pulling in less money by joining a conference. And who knows how this affects their deal with NBC.

My own personal opinion is that being an independent at this point is stupid because you're going to be left out in the cold sooner rather than later. You may as well jump on now instead of trying to figure out how or where you fit in once the B1G and SEC stop giving a fuck about the CFP and wind up doing their own thing.

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13 hours ago, Brian Fowler said:

Hell, B1G structures it right, they can finally force Notre Dame's hand.

I heard someone talking about this but I don't remember who (I think they were from CBS)

Basically Notre Dame is what is gonna determine the next big domino

The contract they set up requires them to join the ACC if they join a football conference. And apparently, at least in the short term, it is a bad move financially to have to pay to not join the ACC. (Also this person was saying, that none of the ACC schools are probably gonna jump at the moment because the money they would have to pay is far greater than what they would get from the new conference's TV deal. But that is only for the short term and at some point, the money difference no longer is a hindrance)

So if they decide to join the ACC full time - that probably would be enough to keep UNC and Clemson and FSU.

Obviously, if they don't join (and the other schools jump), then the ACC is doomed.

The person joked - let them bring along Navy too (to keep it at an even number and Navy is the last long term rival ND has that isn't spoken for)

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I think the only way ND joins a conference is if they are in danger of losing access to the playoffs.

Which is more plausible now than it was two weeks ago.

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6 minutes ago, RIPPA said:

The Big 12 is really like TNA in that it refuses to die

or you, who refuses to read a few posts back.  😞 

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RIP Pac-12.

Kinda funny that it's the B12 killing them since it looked like the B12 might disappear not all that long ago. 

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24 minutes ago, Dolfan in NYC said:

or you, who refuses to read a few posts back.  😞 

Mine is in nice, concise Tweet form

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