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2022 NCAAF OFF-SEASON


EVA
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29 minutes ago, Dolfan in NYC said:

 

 

They started working that back when Texas and OU first announced they were leaving the Big 12. Would fully expect that to happen in 2024, if not 2023. No way are they going to be able to hold the Big 12 together until 2025 the way the dominoes are falling.

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If the PAC-12 loses USC/UCLA, which if appears they will, I would expect them to make a move on the Big-12 Texas schools to offset the hit they’re taking in California by opening up the Texas market. And my guess is those Texas schools would be open to it, as the remnants of the PAC-12 + Texas is much more respectable than the AAC+ vibe the Big 12 currently has.

Problem is, if Washington and Oregon also hit the door, which they’re most assuredly exploring now if they weren’t already, the PAC-12 becomes a much less attractive option. Basically Big 12 West.

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4 minutes ago, EVA said:

If the PAC-12 loses USC/UCLA, which if appears they will, I would expect them to make a move on the Big-12 Texas schools to offset the hit they’re taking in California by opening up the Texas market. And my guess is those Texas schools would be open to it, as the remnants of the PAC-12 + Texas is much more respectable than the AAC+ vibe the Big 12 currently has.

Problem is, if Washington and Oregon also hit the door, which they’re most assuredly exploring now if they weren’t already, the PAC-12 becomes a much less attractive option. Basically Big 12 West.

In terms of the big money sports, the only attractive Big 12 candidate is KU basketball. Sure, Baylor has had success but there is a well-deserved stink on that school. The scraps of the Pac 12 and Big 12 are going to basically form a slightly better Mountain West.

Long term, would be interesting to see if some schools decide to scrap football entirely and focus on the smaller/Olympic sports.

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Also, wondering if there is going to be some ACC poaching. What if the Big Ten goes after UNC, UVA, and Duke? SEC takes Clemson and FSU.

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Posted (edited)

Oh for sure. And the SEC will be looking to add the states of North Carolina and Virginia to its footprint when the time comes. Especially NC.

Edited by EVA
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The Big 12 is reportedly looking at Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah.

The Pac-12 is basically dead, it would appear. The only real drama appears to be what happens with the Washington and Oregon schools (and Cal/Stanford, I guess).

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Posted (edited)

Washington and Oregon gotta get to the B1G with USC/UCLA. Whatever it takes. Their lifeblood is exposure in California. They will wither and die in northwest isolation without it.

 

And they’re a good match for the B1G in pretty much every way (besides geography), so I like their odds. Eventually. May not happen as quickly as they’d like, though.

Edited by EVA
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30 minutes ago, JLowe said:

Also, wondering if there is going to be some ACC poaching. What if the Big Ten goes after UNC, UVA, and Duke? SEC takes Clemson and FSU.

The ACC is next, but it all depends on how many teams the Big 10 and SEC want to max out at. 

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Posted (edited)

The path we’re on is to two superconferences of 20-24 teams and then on to a super league of the elite of those. Don’t know how long it takes to get there, but things seem to be moving quicker than most expected over the past year.

Edited by EVA
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1 minute ago, EVA said:

The path we’re on is to two superconferences of 20-24 teams and then on to a super league of the elite of those. Don’t know how long it takes to get there, but things seem to be moving quicker than most expected over the past year.

I don’t think you’ll see an elite league spring out of the super league, these schools are still going to want 8 home games every other season, in conference teams like Indiana to beat up on every year, and double digit wins every year to keep the big money donors and fans happy. 

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I feel really bad for the student-athletes in the ACC/Big 12/PAC 12 leftovers conference, those Miami to Pullman trips are going to be a killer. For me at least it’ll lead to Pitt and WVU playing every season.

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What's the endgame here?  B1G and SEC bury everybody else, eventually the conference system cannibaliizes itself and the big football schools break off from the NCAA to create their professional league/NFL feeder system? 

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12 minutes ago, Mister TV said:

I don’t think you’ll see an elite league spring out of the super league, these schools are still going to want 8 home games every other season, in conference teams like Indiana to beat up on every year, and double digit wins every year to keep the big money donors and fans happy. 

Keeping everybody happy is what the money is for. And there will be an absurd amount of it, shared between fewer teams than ever before.

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Just now, Robert C said:

What's the endgame here?  B1G and SEC bury everybody else, eventually the conference system cannibaliizes itself and the big football schools break off from the NCAA to create their professional league/NFL feeder system? 

More or less. Call it superleague, autonomy, whatever. But yeah.

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3 minutes ago, EVA said:

More or less. Call it superleague, autonomy, whatever. But yeah.

This ultimately builds to a model of the super conferences breaking off from the NCAA and creating a revenue sharing formula of tv rights with the athletes because that will be pushed for until it can't be avoided similar to many of the pro sports leagues.

There's going to be a lot of old school fans that are going to have their identities broken because all they care about is the sanctity of college football.

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57 minutes ago, EVA said:

Oh for sure. And the SEC will be looking to add the states of North Carolina and Virginia to its footprint when the time comes. Especially NC.

I really can’t emphasize enough how hard the SEC is about to go after North Carolina. That is the biggest piece left on the board that nobody realizes.

Clemson and FSU will be brought into the fold down the line, but both can be slowplayed because they’re not fits for the B1G and they don’t add anything to the SEC footprint. North Carolina is the gateway to the future of college football. If you want to be the top conference, you have to control that piece.

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37 minutes ago, Robert C said:

What's the endgame here?  B1G and SEC bury everybody else, eventually the conference system cannibaliizes itself and the big football schools break off from the NCAA to create their professional league/NFL feeder system? 

 

35 minutes ago, EVA said:

More or less. Call it superleague, autonomy, whatever. But yeah.

Yes, but the big elephant in the room is TV rights. ESPN has been driving the SEC expansion and foreseeing the future, FOX jumped in to push the B1G-PAC 12 expansion as a counter.

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Money is the big driver, clearly, but if I'm the PAC-12 teams that have a shot at getting to the B1G, playoff access is probably a factor as well. The PAC champ gets left out a lot, a Super Sized Big Ten is sending it's champion every year.

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Also, if anything breaks the ACC grant of rights stranglehold, the B1G should push hard to get at least one of the two Florida schools and not let the SEC just have the whole state.

Maybe take a stab at a Texas school, too, even if both the prize catches have already been gobbled.

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