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2020-21 NFL PLAYOFFS: WILDCARDS


Dolfan in NYC
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Once this last game goes off we're all set, but we have the schedule now:

Saturday 1/9 -- 

SURPRISE YOU DICKS.  IT'S THE ONE TIME RETURN OF RANKINGZ~

1:05p - CBS

Spoiler

 

#7 tenor.gif

@ #2 3d578a6207d1c1d857a896d639fa84a8.gif

 

4:40p - FOX

Spoiler

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@ #3 - tenor.gif?itemid=8078043

8:15pm - NBC

Spoiler

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vs. 

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SUNDAY

1:05 PM - ABC/ESPN

Spoiler

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@ #4 - tenor.gif?itemid=8250535

4:40pm - CBS/Nickelodeon (???)/ Amazon Prime Video

Spoiler

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@ #2 - CanineVelvetyHeifer-max-1mb.gif

8:15pm - NBC / Peacock

Spoiler

#6 - giphy.gif

@ #3 - Zyxm3K.gif

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Dolfan in NYC said:

Nickelodeon (???)

https://www.nfl.com/news/cbs-sports-nickelodeon-team-up-nfl-wild-card-game-nickelodeon

Quote

CBS Sports and Nickelodeon are getting kids and families into the game with a special slime-filled presentation of the National Football League's Wild Card game on Sunday, Jan. 10, at 4:30 p.m. ET. The NFL Wild Card Game on Nickelodeonwill feature one-of-a-kind kid-focused content and Nick-themed elements throughout, including a special halftime presentation, guest reporters and original on-field graphics, virtual filters and more. The NFL Wild Card Game on Nickelodeon will air alongside CBS Sports' broadcast of the game on The CBS Television Network.

 

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I realized once I saw the matchups how little I care about the NFC this year. Bucs/Redskins and Rams/Seahawks in particular could be horrid. I could skip all those games and not miss a beat. But looking forward to the AFC games.

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5 hours ago, Kevin Wilson said:

I realized once I saw the matchups how little I care about the NFC this year. Bucs/Redskins and Rams/Seahawks in particular could be horrid. I could skip all those games and not miss a beat. But looking forward to the AFC games.

The AFC was so much better than the NFC this year. I mean, 8-8 got a wildcard in the NFC, 10-6 didn't in the AFC. And that's not even getting into the East.

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Amusingly - Washington isn't even the biggest underdog this weekend.

The Saints are currently 10 point favorites over the Bears.

The Bucs are only 8 over Washington

The difference between playing at home and on the road

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2 hours ago, Brian Fowler said:

The AFC was so much better than the NFC this year. I mean, 8-8 got a wildcard in the NFC, 10-6 didn't in the AFC. And that's not even getting into the East.

4 of the top 5 draft picks belong to AFC teams... there might be some correlation to why there were so many 10 wins teams in the AFC

The one NFC team in the Top 5 - Atlanta - certainly should have had more than 4 wins (Considering they blew 20 point, 17 point and 16 point leads this year)

The worst team in the NFC East had 4 wins (and a stupid tie). Two AFC South teams combined for 5 wins.

I mean - while not a perfect metric - both 8-8 NFC teams SOS were better than Miami's

Heck - the Raiders finished 8-8 and their SOS was .539 while Miami's was only .467

Basically my point is - 1) It isn't this great injustice that Miami didn't make the playoffs and 2) I would pump the brakes on the WAY BETTER~! part

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Well, at least my Colts and Bears both limped their way into the playoffs. That is all.

I guess I'm really just pulling for the Bills because most of my cousins are Bills fans, one of my best friends is a Bills fan, and that team has gone through a bunch of bullshit for a long time.

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7 hours ago, RIPPA said:

Amusingly - Washington isn't even the biggest underdog this weekend.

The Saints are currently 10 point favorites over the Bears.

The Bucs are only 8 over Washington

The difference between playing at home and on the road

To be fair, in the games I've watched the Bears played, they haven't looked very good other than against TB very early in the season. This includes yesterday where Aaron Rodgers solidified his MVP campaign against them. WFT at least has a formidable defense. Now on the other side of the football, CHI and WFT can both be pretty anemic. Alex Smith vacillates between good and third stringer-ish. Trubisky is not much better. Tampa got throttled by New Orleans in both their games so it's reasonable to expect they're the much better team. I don't expect WFT to beat TB but I expect the Saints to absolutely demolish the Bears. 

 

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Washington has one of the best pass-rush win-rates in the league, while Tampa is mid-pack in pass-protection, with a quarterback who really doesn't like being pressured. They're rightly an underdog, but that's one path to a competitive game. 

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23 minutes ago, Beech27 said:

Washington has one of the best pass-rush win-rates in the league, while Tampa is mid-pack in pass-protection, with a quarterback who really doesn't like being pressured. They're rightly an underdog, but that's one path to a competitive game. 

The issue is how is Alex Smith going to do under pressure? They showed a stat last night IIRC where at one point during the game Smith was 10 for 10 for like 75 yards against pressure. But he threw for only 162 the whole game. That's not gonna cut it against Tampa that's gonna score probably 30 or more.

I see TB @ WFT being competitive early on before it gets out of hand cause Washington's offense can't score. I see the Saints game being a route the whole way.

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Washington probably needs Brady to throw a couple panic-picks, and maybe get strip-sacked, leading to easy scores. I think Smith is good enough if the field position and game flow tilt in his favor. Unlikely, ultimately. But it’s still a worse matchup for TB than the Giants, I think.

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FWIW, 538 has WFT's win probability at 29%, the third highest of any of the WC weekend underdogs behind the Titans (although they rate that game almost as a pick'em) and the Browns.

(And, to be honest, for some reason I feel much more confident about WFT going into the playoffs than when the Caps won the Stanley Cup...)

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Everyone is too nice to say it because his comeback story is legit, but Alex Smith has not had a good year at all. His QB rating is 78.5 which puts him virtually last among qualified starters. Add in his mobility is further shot due to his latest injury, I don't see a path for The Football Team to win Saturday. I dunno how anyone that watched that shit fest on Sunday could have any faith in Washington beating a real team.

I mean I'd enjoy it if they beat the Bucs, it would be funny. But I see that being a 42-10 type game.

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3 hours ago, Brian Fowler said:

IIRC, Washington is 5-1 with Smith. And the last two 7 win teams both won their first round home games.

We really have to stop with this fallacy that QB WINZ~! is a meaningful data point

Two examples just from this year.

Week 9 - Washington loses. Smith plays 3 quarters and throws THREE interceptions - TWO of them in the last 3 minutes of the game as Washington is trying to take the lead. Doesn't get pinned with the loss because Kyle Allen started the game.

Week 14 - Washington beats San Fran by scoring ZERO offensive TDs (3 FGs, 2 Defensive TDs). Smith only plays the 1st half amassing a QBR of... 7.9! Gets credit for the win because he started.

Alex Smith isn't the reason they are winning those games (well beyond the fact that he isn't Dwayne Haskins). They won those games because of the defense and a massive amount of good fortune (tissue paper soft schedule, teams with back breaking injuries (ie: Cincy game) or miscellaneous (see the Pittsburgh or Philly game))

If Kyle Allen was still the QB, they win at least 4 of those 5 (possibly more since in that alternate reality - Smith doesn't get hurt again and Washington doesn't have to go back to Haskins)

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1 hour ago, Kevin Wilson said:

I mean I'd enjoy it if they beat the Bucs, it would be funny. But I see that being a 42-10 type game.

 

11 minutes ago, RIPPA said:

Alex Smith isn't the reason they are winning those games (well beyond the fact that he isn't Dwayne Haskins). They won those games because of the defense and a massive amount of good fortune (tissue paper soft schedule, teams with back breaking injuries (ie: Cincy game) or miscellaneous (see the Pittsburgh or Philly game)

The thing about Tampa is they're been the beneficiary of playing teams within their division that aren't New Orleans who absolutely stink. That's four extra wins. They also played Detroit and Minnesota. That's six whole wins against bad teams. They're two best wins were Green Bay in mid October and I guess somehow finding a way to beat the Giants. The latter was two months ago. They have yet to beat a team other than GB who they weren't suppose to beat. Once they got off bye, they're been using these other teams as low level sparring partners. The problem with Washington is they're as highly flawed as those teams Tampa has been beating on. They just have a really good defense, Terry McLaurin, and Logan Thomas. I can see them holding Tampa to like 21-28 points but Washington is so inconsistent on offense that I can see Tampa's defense holding them to a few field goals. I can honestly see a 28-14 game that doesn't look as close as the box score indicates. Washington's defense would have to play absolutely lights out for this game to be remotely competitive. 

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If there's not a slime bath for the winning coach of the Nickelodeon game, what's even the point?

Edited by CSC
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