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UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje (10/24/2020) - Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UFC Fight Island)


Elsalvajeloco

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BT Sport 2 has just come on air five minutes ago. Good to watch the UFC UK time rather than USA time when the main prelims and main PPV card are on the very early hours of Sunday morning. Fuck BT Sport for making it a PPV.

Edited by The Natural
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1 hour ago, The Natural said:

Any reason why the main PPV card has six fights on and not the usual five?

I think it may be the number of available fighters over in Abu Dhabi, which means they probably have an overabundance to cover fighters falling out of bouts. If the rest of the cards are already booked and planned in advanced, it's kind of tough to make everyone happy without expanding these cards.

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More I think of the main event, the more I think it's a typical Khabib domination. I hope I'm wrong. I've underrated Gaethje at every step despite recognizing his power and endurance and now improved footwork and smarts. I'm hoping this is another case of me being wrong on him. If not Gaethje, do we really think any of the remaining lightweights have a chance against Nurmagomedov? A lot of them have pieces that could offer some problems but have weaknesses elsewhere that nullify most threats. I think if anybody were to beat him, the first thing is obviously the defensive wrestling and physicality, second is mental fortitude, and third is fight-ending power. Of course, it's reality so he could always get caught by something, but there aren't many people who have those tools and Gaethje is one of them. Not so sure he has the physicality to sustain the repeated attacks from Khabib. And should Khabib retire, it's not like I'm feeling robbed of seeing him smash Dan Hooker.

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Based on what Tai Tuivasa said about the difference between AKA and training in Australia, he needs to find a way to get back to AKA. Even he had to admit the level of training (though he was only there for a month per DC) was something you can't even compare.

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49 minutes ago, Jiji said:

More I think of the main event, the more I think it's a typical Khabib domination. I hope I'm wrong. I've underrated Gaethje at every step despite recognizing his power and endurance and now improved footwork and smarts. I'm hoping this is another case of me being wrong on him. If not Gaethje, do we really think any of the remaining lightweights have a chance against Nurmagomedov? A lot of them have pieces that could offer some problems but have weaknesses elsewhere that nullify most threats. I think if anybody were to beat him, the first thing is obviously the defensive wrestling and physicality, second is mental fortitude, and third is fight-ending power. Of course, it's reality so he could always get caught by something, but there aren't many people who have those tools and Gaethje is one of them. Not so sure he has the physicality to sustain the repeated attacks from Khabib. And should Khabib retire, it's not like I'm feeling robbed of seeing him smash Dan Hooker.

My question is whether Gaethje's wrestling is really good enough for him to keep this chaotic.  I think if he tries to have a steady stand up battle like Poirier did he will get wrestle fucked. They've been touting his wrestling pedigree, but it concerns me that he never really uses it.  Cormier has a desire to knock people out, but if he felt comfortable enough he'd grapple to grind dudes out(like Derrick Lewis). Gaethje not using those skills has me concerned that he'll suddenly just bust them out have enough magic to beat a guy who regularly wrestles UFC competition and fucks them up.

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16 minutes ago, Jiji said:

More I think of the main event, the more I think it's a typical Khabib domination. I hope I'm wrong. I've underrated Gaethje at every step despite recognizing his power and endurance and now improved footwork and smarts. I'm hoping this is another case of me being wrong on him. If not Gaethje, do we really think any of the remaining lightweights have a chance against Nurmagomedov? A lot of them have pieces that could offer some problems but have weaknesses elsewhere that nullify most threats. I think if anybody were to beat him, the first thing is obviously the defensive wrestling and physicality, second is mental fortitude, and third is fight-ending power. Of course, it's reality so he could always get caught by something, but there aren't many people who have those tools and Gaethje is one of them. Not so sure he has the physicality to sustain the repeated attacks from Khabib. And should Khabib retire, it's not like I'm feeling robbed of seeing him smash Dan Hooker.

I remember watching Justin Gaethje during his amateur career in Victory FC (midwest promotion that produced guys like Anthony Smith, Luke Caudillo, Drew Dober, the Ellenberger brothers, and various Zuffa journeymen) back when Megavideo was a thing. If you didn't know better, he looked like Khabib more than the Gaethje we know now or even saw in WSOF. It was just a lot of big slams and elbows. He looked like a very good fighter even THEN. You would never suspect he would win fights with anything but that. However, here we are a decade plus later. It was as if he were specifically design to one day fight and beat Khabib Nurmagomedov.

It reminds me of the Shane Mosley and Vernon Forrest matchup when they first fought back in early 2002. Forrest was the guy who stopped Mosley from going to the 1992 Summer Olympic games in Barcelona. Mosley went on to become an unstoppable lightweight and then moved straight up to welterweight to eventually beat Oscar De La Hoya in a big money fight. He went through everyone (save for a rather pedestrian fight with Oscar) like a knife through hot butter, and P4P probably the best out there at that particular point. Meanwhile, Forrest had basically been toiling in obscurity for ten years since that big amateur win over Mosley at the Olympic trials. He had this really boring fight with Raul Frank to win the IBF version of the welterweight title the prior May on the undercard of Trinidad vs. Joppy. His pro career was nothing to write home about. Then, Forrest finally meets Mosley in the pros. As Emanuel Steward astutely pointed out on commentary since he watched both in the amateurs when they were kids, Forrest was just a bad matchup for Mosley. Forrest just absolutely decimated Mosley, and there was nothing fluke about it. 

It probably depends a lot on what Trevor Wittman has a gameplan, but maybe it is just Khabib's day to lose based on that matchup. Of course, Khabib should be the prohibitive favorite for a reason. He's earned that.

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if Khabib wins tonight, i'm still hoping for a Khabib-Ferguson matchup.  yes, a lot of the luster is gone after so many failed pairings and Tony's dismantling by Gaethje, but i'm still incredibly interested in seeing it unfold.

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7 minutes ago, supremebve said:

Lauren Murphy has been really impressive lately, too bad she just publicly declared that she wants to die by calling out Valentina Shevchenko.  

To be fair, she is basically the most mandatory contender you're going to find right now. That and I don't think she fares much better against Andrade who deserves a shot based on how she took apart Chookagian. Maybe Murphy can fight Calvillo, but she has to fight for the title if she keeps winning.

Edited by Elsalvajeloco
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I just went back and searched when the first post on Phil Hawes on this forum.

It was a post back in April 2016 announcing the cast of TUF 23, and I had him as the favorite to win the season. He failed to make it into the house that year.

In terms of potential, he is up there. 

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Just now, Elsalvajeloco said:

To be fair, she is basically the most mandatory contender you're going to find right now. That and I don't think she fares much better against Andrade who deserves a shot based on how she took apart Chookagian. Maybe Murphy can fight Calvillo, but she has to fought for the title if she keeps winning.

I don't think that Andrade wins a title fight, but Andrade is still Andrade.  Murphy doesn't do anything that puts Shevchenko in danger, Andrade is always dangerous.  Andrade's biggest fault as a fighter is that she's either on offense or on defense.  She's tough enough that she can walk down a lot of fighters while eating a  bunch of shots, but Shevchenko isn't the type of fighter you want to fight that way.  If she tries to play defense, I don't think she has the striking ability to consistently counter Shevchenko.  With that said, she's going to be a threat for every second of a 5 round fight.  Murphy is a talented fighter, who has all the skills you want without the explosiveness or athleticism that it will take to realistically compete with Valentina Shevchenko.  

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Khabib is legitimately the best MMA fighter I've ever seen.  I've seen pretty much everyone, and no one has ever been this good at everything.  That takedown, transition, and submission was fucking masterful and he's accomplished all of this in the single deepest division in the history of the sport.

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The level of competition is what really makes it a fairly easy choice imo. And the dominance. His standup is so great for setting up the takedowns and mentally overwhelming his opponent. It's not perfect in a vacuum but it's perfect for what he needs it to be. 

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Just now, Jiji said:

The level of competition is what really makes it a fairly easy choice imo. And the dominance. His standup is so great for setting up the takedowns and mentally overwhelming his opponent. It's not perfect in a vacuum but it's perfect for what he needs it to be. 

That was starting to become a prototypical Justin Gaethje fight and then in a split second, it wasn't.

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