The Baseball Hall of Fame Thread

[The Man Known as Dan]

11 minutes ago, Tabe said:

My standards put a very high emphasis on great seasons. Mussina has like one. 

I find it odd you are completely discounting Larry Walker for "Coors was too much of his career" while not also giving Mussina extra credit for pitching every single game of his career as a Starting Pitcher in the AL East. 

For starters, Mussina's best year, by ERA, was not his best year. Yes, he had a 2.53 ERA in 1992. But Charles Nagy, Juan Guzman, & Melido Perez did too. That was before hitting numbers got super gaudy. It was a good year for Mussina, but probably not one of his 5 best overall.

Here is a listing of pitchers for AL East teams to have sub 3 ERA's during Mussina's "prime" years, which I would start at 1995 and end at 2001, personally. I am going to exclude Clemens and Pedro, as Clemens and Pedro are other worldly figures, and I'm not arguing that Mussina is in those guys ballparks, just arguing for a reference of how hard it is to do what Mussina did.

1995: Tim Wakefield: 2.95 ERA, 4.53 FIP, flukey as shit. Mussina that year had a 3.29, 4th in the AL.

1996: Juan Guzman: 2.93 ERA, 3.76 FIP. This was Mussina's one real bad year in his main years, with a 4.81 ERA and 4.01 FIP. Worth noting, only 10 qualfied starters had an ERA before 4 in the AL in 96.

1997: David Cone: 2.82 ERA, 3.35 FIP & Andy Pettite 2.88 ERA and 2.96 FIP. Pettite's career best year by a pretty big margin. Mussina wasn't far behind them at 3.20 ERA and 3.49 FIP, good for 6th best ERA in the AL that year (That was Roger Clemens stupid year in Toronto, for the record)

1998: Clemens and Pedro were the only 2 AL pitchers with a sub 3 ERA that year, period. Mussina was at 3.49, tied with David Wells for 5th best ERA in the AL. Only 13 pitchers in the AL that year had a sup 4 ERA.

1999: Pedro Martinez put up a 2.04 that year, and the next closest starter was David Cone at a 3.44. Only other pitcher at 3.50 or lower is Mussina, and only 7 pitchers in all of the AL had an ERA sub 4. David Cone that year, for the record, had a 4.28 FIP while Mussina had a 3.25

2000: If you thought 99 was stupid, wait till you see 2000. Pedro puts up the best season arguably ever from a pitcher, with a 1.74 ERA while pitching in Boston in the middle of the steroid era. Nobody else puts up an ERA below 3.70. Clemens is 2nd, Mussina is 3rd 3.79. For perspective on how impossible it was to put up low ERA numbers, that 3.79 ERA season is worth 6.4 fWAR. Only 6 pitchers with an ERA below 4.

2001: No pitcher puts up a sub 3 ERA. Mussina comes close though, with a 3.15 ERA and 2.93 FIP, with a 6.9 fWAR. This is a year that it's pretty easy to say Mussina was the best pitcher in the AL, as only Freddy Garcia beat him in ERA, and Garcia struck out less, walked more, and had a silly lucky .255 BAA that year. They give the Cy Young to Clemens whose ERA was .35 higher. Clemens winning that year isn't an awful winner or anything, but it should have been Mussina, but Clemens went 20-3. This is when the AL becomes somewhat manageable again, which also comes at the same time that Mussina starts his age decline. 

 From that point on Mussina was more "really solid near top of the rotation starter" then elite pitcher, but he still wasn't ever anything worse then "good Number 2 starter". Mussina has a tough break because his best years in his prime also lined up perfectly with the absolute worst time to be a high end pitcher in baseball history in the worst division he could have played in at that time. If you asked me who was the 5th best starter from 1985-2010 behind Clemens, Pedro, Maddux, and Johnson, I'd be hard pressed to make up my mind between Mussina, Smoltz, and Glavine, but would probably lean Mussina. If Smoltz & Glavine are in, Mussina needs to be too imo.

[The Man Known as Dan]

25 minutes ago, Tabe said:

He hit like .280 everywhere but Coors. That just isn't good enough. 

I don't care. He was Barry Bonds at Coors. 

[RIPPA]

Without even looking at stats - Mussina finished in the Top 5 of Cy Young voting 6 times (and another two where he finished 6th)

I feel comfortable in saying more than 1 of those was great.

[KidNatural]

9 hours ago, Tabe said:

He hit like .280 everywhere but Coors. That just isn't good enough. 

I hate arguments like this. It totally discounts that Walker was a five tool player that ran the bases as good as anyone and was arguably the best defensive right fielder in the game for a good stretch. Hall of Fame voting has devolved to reading the backs of baseball cards and forgetting about excelling at the game itself. I loathe Curt Schilling as a human being, but his clutch pitching in the playoffs should put him in. I wonder if Sandy Koufax would get elected these days or would he get the didn't do it for a long enough time argument.

I am a Rockies fan, and arguments like that concern me about the future candidacy of Todd Helton or any future Rockie.

[sabremike]

While we are on the subject of ballparks the fact that Bonds put up those numbers playing at AT&T makes them even more amazing. That place is probably the worst for power hitters in the entire sport with Petco and Safeco the chief competition for that honor.

[Ryan]

Imagine if he played at Coors. 85 HR!

[SorceressKnight]

On 1/5/2017 at 2:13 PM, KidNatural said:

I hate arguments like this. It totally discounts that Walker was a five tool player that ran the bases as good as anyone and was arguably the best defensive right fielder in the game for a good stretch. Hall of Fame voting has devolved to reading the backs of baseball cards and forgetting about excelling at the game itself. I loathe Curt Schilling as a human being, but his clutch pitching in the playoffs should put him in. I wonder if Sandy Koufax would get elected these days or would he get the didn't do it for a long enough time argument.

I am a Rockies fan, and arguments like that concern me about the future candidacy of Todd Helton or any future Rockie.

Unfortunately, though, the Rockies' factor IS something that has to be dealt with for this era of baseball, and it will hurt Rockies who end up on the ballot.

The biggest controversy for HOF voting right now is PED usage and if any of the power hitters or power pitchers took steroids to enhance their game, and using the "well, steroids don't give you better concentration or a better eye- you still need to hit the ball. Steroids would just make the ball go farther than it normally would have" argument to hurt people.

With that in mind, isn't it also technically accurate to say that MLB expanding to high-altitude Denver in 1992 also counts there? Just like the steroid argument- if you're playing 81 games a year at home, then you're going to get higher altitudes that make a ball go farther than they would have at sea level or close to it." 

If you're a BBWAA voter who wanted to be strict (or a pro-PED voter), it's not unfair to say that "playing for the Colorado Rockies and playing your home games in Denver would be its own performance-enhancer."

[odessasteps]

Posnanski had a good article today on Edgar. 

http://joeposnanski.com/ballot-5-edgar-martinez/

[elizium]

With 177 ballots now publicized, only Bagwell, Raines and Pudge are still over the 75% threshold. Vladdy is at 74.6 and Hoffman at 72.9. My guess is that they keep dropping and don't make it up. I'm torn on Hoffman being in the Hall, but getting 5 players in this year would have done a lot to remove the log jam on the ballot.

It's funny, but for baseball, I'm mostly against putting closers in unless they're absolutely exceptional (Rivera for example), for the usual reasons...specialists, play so little, closer is wildly overrated as a position and need. Yet, in football, it makes me upset that they're aren't more kickers and punters elected. With Hoffman specifically, I don't think you can put him in, but say that Lee Smith and Billy Wagner aren't good enough.

[The Man Known as Dan]

I'll say I don't buy any argument saying Trevor Hoffman was a better player then Billy Wagner outright. You basically are just arguing longevity over a guy who was just consistently better.

[Tabe]

I just don't see the case for Hoffman. This is a guy who pitched 60-1/3 or less innings in 12 of his 18 seasons. If you're going to play that little, you better be GREAT. Hoffman wasn't. 

[Ryan]

He played for the Brewers and had a cool entrance song, automatic HOFer 100%! Him and Uecker.

[Kuetsar]

Frankly Mo is the only closer that I can think of that deserves it right now. . .

[SorceressKnight]

49 minutes ago, Tabe said:

I just don't see the case for Hoffman. This is a guy who pitched 60-1/3 or less innings in 12 of his 18 seasons. If you're going to play that little, you better be GREAT. Hoffman wasn't. 

But that's also related to why closer is such a specialist position.

The whole nature of "save your best reliever for save situations instead of use them at any time" was an example here: Hoffman played for a lot of bad teams, so Hoffman got far fewer save situations because his team , so he pitches less innings. 

It's a problem for Hoffman's HOF credentials...but at the same time, for a position as specialist as closer, you really can't BLAME them if their team sucked or anything- all they can do is hope that it's close to the 9th inning with a three run or less lead and make sure the team wins.

[Ryan]

He should have demanded to be a 3 inning closer!

[Tabe]

I have no problem with him pitching that little - just saying he needed to be better in those innings to be in the Hall. 

[SorceressKnight]

23 hours ago, Tabe said:

I have no problem with him pitching that little - just saying he needed to be better in those innings to be in the Hall. 

Of course- but that's also the question mark that closers have, and it needs to be seen as more closers get on the ballot. People widely say Mariano Rivera should be in the Hall and Hoffman shouldn't- but if the save stat is close, you also kind of have to count teams into this (of COURSE Mo's going to have more innings and save situations playing for the Yankees dynasty than Hoffman will playing for far, far weaker teams.)

[Tabe]

I don't care about the save stat. It's a joke. I find it inconceivable that managers determine their pitcher usage by a stat instead of the actual game situations - but they do. 

What I care about is how well the pitcher actually pitches. And Hoffman wasn't great. Billy Wagner, on the other hand, was. 

[SorceressKnight]

That'd be viable.

It's actually a shock why they don't put more strength in the "holds" stat- that usually seems to be a stat that determines more for middle relievers and can use better relievers up and down the game depending on it.

[Ryan]

Too bad the hold doesn't go before 1999 as a tracked stat. The current career leader is Arthur Rhodes with 231.

[elizium]

Current idiot sportswriter du jour is Bill Livingston who signed his empty ballot, sent it in, but with a note saying that he is abstaining. Of course, by sending it in, he didn't abstain and has in fact voted for nobody and lowered everyone's percentages. If you guessed "PEDs" as the reason for his "abstention", congratulations you win.

And he's doubling down on everyone calling him an idiot by basically yelling "But the note....the note!"

[Ryan]

Good, take his ballot away.

[Dolfan in NYC]

On 11/30/2016 at 10:05 AM, RIPPA said:

The ballot is out and the tracker is already up and running

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!7731&ithint=file,xlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AE2Lu5P1f92OW8o

Tony Massarotti's troll ballot is infuriating and yet again another reason writers shouldn't have a say in anything

BTW, if this link no longer works for you (like it doesn't for me for some reason) the tracker can be found here.

Raines and Bags are both at or above 88%, Pudge is at 79. Looks like everyone else is going to wait.  

And while I know the argument against, I swear, I thought Posada and his trillion rings would have garnered higher than 4%.

[RIPPA]

Bernie Williams fell off after one year.

I am fine with the same happening to Posada

EDIT - I think in both of their cases, if there wasn't such a massive backlog of guys, they would have gotten more "sympathy" votes but most writers are using 8-10 spots on the legit guys.

Or you have the douche nozzles doing their PED protest votes

[elizium]

Pudge has been dropping as more ballots are revealed, I think he might end up being pretty close to the line.