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2018-19 NBA: SECOND HALF


Dolfan in NYC

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Yeah, Harden is 05-06 Kobe, with more help.  Giannis is putting up a LeBron season.

The playoffs will have something to say, though.  Giannis + Middleton/Bledsoe/Brogdon should be better than Horford & Millsap + Teague/Korver/other Hawks were in 2015, and there's no one as clearly dominant in their path, but whether Budenholzer's system can win them 16 more games with home-court advantage will have to happen before I believe it.  Kawhi on Giannis in the ECFs could be a neat matchup.

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D2dGeW3WwAAmkZN.png:large

Player 1 has played fewer games, scores fewer points, takes less 3s, has a worse FT%, less assists, and less steals.  And he's the OBVIOUS MVP. 

I'm used to Harden getting screwed out of the MVP.  He should have won in 2014-15 (Steph) and 2016-2017 (Russ).  I'm frankly shocked he actually got it last year, and he's playing even better this year. 

Even the narrative that Harden doesn't play defense doesn't even hold up considering that he a leads the league in deflections and is in top 3 for steals, and is the #1 best post defender in the NBA. 

And, again, where are Giannis's MVP moments?  He scored 50 points once.  Harden's done it 8 times. 

 

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1 hour ago, Contentious C said:

Yeah, Harden is 05-06 Kobe, with more help.  Giannis is putting up a LeBron season.

The playoffs will have something to say, though.  Giannis + Middleton/Bledsoe/Brogdon should be better than Horford & Millsap + Teague/Korver/other Hawks were in 2015, and there's no one as clearly dominant in their path, but whether Budenholzer's system can win them 16 more games with home-court advantage will have to happen before I believe it.  Kawhi on Giannis in the ECFs could be a neat matchup.

That's assuming the Raptors make it that far. I know they have Kawhi for this year but it's still the Raptors and it's still Kyle Lowry. 

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eFG%, FG%, Rebounding, PER, win shares, win shares per 48, defensive rating, team record... It's almost like points aren't the only thing that matters.

I backed Harden both those years he didn't win it. Giannis is having the better season on a better team.

Edited by Brian Fowler
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17 minutes ago, Oyaji said:

That's assuming the Raptors make it that far. I know they have Kawhi for this year but it's still the Raptors and it's still Kyle Lowry. 

I like Toronto's chances.  Boston is too busy squabbling, and Philly has no bench and a propensity for gakking on the carpet in big games this year (see, practically every game vs. Boston except for the very last one).  Sixers and Bucks are still 'show-me' teams as far as I'm concerned.  At least Toronto has someone who has shown it. 

It'd be great if I'm wrong about this, and the Celtics put their shit in a shit backpack and take it to the shit museum or shit school or the shit flea market, and get their shit together, Summer, but I'm not counting on it.

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10 minutes ago, Brian Fowler said:

eFG%, FG%, Rebounding, PER, win shares, win shares per 48, defensive teasing rating, team record... It's almost like points aren't the only thing that matters.

I backed Harden both those years he didn't win it. Giannis is having the better season on a better team.

eFG% and FG% mean nothing when Giannis takes almost nothing but dunks or less, and Harden shoots more 3s than anyone else in the league.  Of course Giannis will have more rebounds, he's a FORWARD.  He's supposed to have more rebounds than a guard.  I couldn't even tell you what PER or win shares or defensive teasing rating is.  I guess that last one is about talking shit?  Team record is pretty much the only argument that Giannis really has, and considering the injuries, the Melo failed experiment, and how Harden literally had to carry the team from 14th to 3rd in the mfing West, it's no question Harden is most deserving of the MVP. 

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eFG literally adjusts for dunks and layups  vs threes. That's how it's different from regular FG%.

10 minutes ago, Lawful Metal said:

eFG% and FG% mean nothing when Giannis takes almost nothing but dunks or less, and Harden shoots more 3s than anyone else in the league.  Of course Giannis will have more rebounds, he's a FORWARD.  

Yes, and Harden having more assists is equally relevant, but the gap between assists in the two of them is way less than the gap in rebounding.

I apologise, I'm not sure why the word teasing was there. Defensive rating is exactly what it sounds like, how good you are on defense. Giannis is #1 in the league, Harden isn't in the top 20.

PER is player efficiency rating. It's a catch-all stat that takes everything you do into account. Giannis leads the league. Because he's playing better than anyone else.

Edited by Brian Fowler
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Harden has scored 50+ points more times (8) than Giannis has scored Harden’s average (36) (7 times). 

Harden’s total points generated (points scored plus assists) per 100 possessions is best ever in NBA history. 

Giannis is not having a better year than Harden. 

And, again, where are the “MVP moments” for Giannis?

 

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Harden is a better offensive player.

Giannis is a better defensive player.

The gap between Harden and Giannis on offense is significantly smaller than the reverse. Giannis is arguably the best defensive player in the NBA and a top ten offensive player. Harden isn't a top twenty defender.

What the fuck is an MVP moment? 

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And? Giannis has more blocks, gets blown by less, has the highest defensive rating in the game, guards all five positions at an elite level. Harden gambles for steals and, while he's improved greatly from a few years ago, he's still a mediocre defender at best. 

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Harden is the best post defender in the league. Nobody scores on him in the post.

and Giannis is not even close to Harden’s offensive stuff. It’s insulting to say that he’s even close to Harden’s offensive firepower. 

Giannis is the beneficiary of other players assists on most of his dunks or less. Harden doesn’t need anyone to help him out. Harden leads the league in ISO scoring. 

 

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Dude, this is exactly how exchanges go between students I teach and me at high school. "Harden's better at D now. Look at the steals!" Steals are such a small part of defense. It's every play staying involved, not letting your man penetrate or post up. How often does a defender influence a shot? That's defence. Blocks and steals are but a small, flashy part of it. We now have the stats to know if a player is consistently lowering his opponent's shooting percentage. There's no excuse for that shit anymore. It's not 1993. 

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Just now, Lawful Metal said:

Harden is the best post defender in the league. Nobody scores on him in the post.

and Giannis is not even close to Harden’s offensive stuff. It’s insulting to say that he’s even close to Harden’s offensive firepower. 

 Giannis is the beneficiary of other players assists on most of his dunks or less. Harden doesn’t need anyone to help him out. Harden leads the league in ISO scoring. 



This isn't a good thing. Teammates go cold standing around watching Harden's hero ball.

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It’s a good think if he scores there more often than not. And when his teammates at the time were castoffs (Faried and Rivers) or G league talent (Gary Clark Jr and Danuel House) and everyone else (Chris Paul, Capela, Eric Gordon) was injured, it’s fine. And now that everyone is healthy, they’re winning by 23 with contributions from everyone else.

and Harden only scored 28. Which coincidentally is still higher than Giannis’s average.

You complain about Harden’s hero ball and yet he’s still among league leaders in assists. And yet he still averages more assists than Giannis.

 

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8 hours ago, Lawful Metal said:

And Giannis is not even close to Harden’s offensive stuff. It’s insulting to say that he’s even close to Harden’s offensive firepower. 

 

 

Harden is first in the NBA in offensive win shares. Giannis is third.

Giannis is first in the NBA in defensive win shares. Harden isn't in the top twenty.

The gap between Harden and Giannis on offense is significantly smaller than the gap on defense. Harden has been a good post defender this year (not best in the NBA though. When that analysis came out, he was in the 91st percentile on post ups defended. He was also in the 57th against ISOs and 56th against all possessions. Middle of the pack.) 

As of March 2nd: "Antetokounmpo ranks first in the following metrics: defensive rating and defensive win shares. Antetokounmpo is also third in defensive box plus/minus, seventh in defensive rebound percentage and sixth in three-pointers contested per game."

Opponents shoot 6.7% below their average on all shots defended by Giannis. The Bucks are the best defensive team in the NBA, and he's the number one reason why. They also have the best record and best net rating. 

When Harden is on the court, the Rockets are 4.9 points better per 100 possessions than when he sits. When Giannis is on the court, the Bucks are 12.9 points better per 100 than when he sits.

James Harden is great. He's absolutely great. He's done an amazing job carrying a deeply flawed Houston team. He's also been less efficient and had a slightly smaller impact on wins and loses thus far. He plays on an inferior team, which, fair or not, is a very common deciding factor. But, the short story is, Giannis is playing better than him overall, end to end. 

Edited by Brian Fowler
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12 hours ago, Lawful Metal said:

D2dGeW3WwAAmkZN.png:large

Even the narrative that Harden doesn't play defense doesn't even hold up considering that he a leads the league in deflections...

 

Are you Tom Crean?

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22 hours ago, Contentious C said:

I like Toronto's chances.  Boston is too busy squabbling, and Philly has no bench and a propensity for gakking on the carpet in big games this year (see, practically every game vs. Boston except for the very last one).  Sixers and Bucks are still 'show-me' teams as far as I'm concerned.  At least Toronto has someone who has shown it. 

It'd be great if I'm wrong about this, and the Celtics put their shit in a shit backpack and take it to the shit museum or shit school or the shit flea market, and get their shit together, Summer, but I'm not counting on it.

The new look Sixers are starting to come together a little bit with wins over the Bucks on the road and Boston at home last week.  I have no earthly idea who is coming out of the East. With Brogdon out and the other Bucks hurting I would probably consider the Raptors the favorites. 

Problem with the Raptors is they are probably going to run into this weird wildcard Philly team in round 2.  Jimmy Butler might shoot 0 threes that entire series.. or average 7 a game.  I really have no clue.  

Embiid might turn a few of these plays into blocks somehow? 

Embiid is consistently great and the best big man in the league, but I just have no idea if Jimmy Butler will show up or not.

This is the most intriguing 2nd round series to me, but the whole playoffs are shaping up to be AWESOME this year. I really think I would take the field over GS.

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