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The Big Game, v.53


Brian Fowler

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Eh, it's a different era anyway.  Brady got his knee torn up one year and they immediately changed the rules. They also changed the rules for Manning after the Pats and Ty Law were mugging his receivers in Foxboro.  This is a league where the Mannings, Brady's,  Brees can extend their primes because they aren't getting their heads taken off.  Peyton had his best season in Denver when he was 37.  It's very impressive what Brady has done obviously but comparing him to QBs from the 80s is not apples to apples. 

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On 1/21/2019 at 12:47 AM, Brian Fowler said:

 

Maybe the Pats dynasty goes full circle?

It just now dawns on me that all three teams from the Pats initial run of titles have been turn down, rebuilt, and now made it to the Super Bowl again in the last five years.

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So on one side, we have a team that won the Super Bowl two years ago, and is seen as an absolute juggernaut. On the other, a young team who survived a playoff game because of an extremely questionable call by the refs, a clutch field goal to force overtime and then another clutch field goal to win the game. 

Why does that sound so familiar?

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On 1/20/2019 at 10:04 PM, L_W_P said:

Why didn't the Saints just run the ball?

 

Why didn't Ric Flair just go for a pin or the figure four instead of trying to climb the turnbuckle again?


Most of the NFL is still in denial about how the modern rules have gimped Defense so bad as to force a tactical change.  The game winning "2 minute" drive is no longer rare and special and borderline miraculous, even as Quarterbacks get put over every time their team pulls it off.  The rules are designed to make it as doable as possible because, successful or not, the longer the outcome of the game remains in doubt, the more eyes stay on the product and thus the more money they can charge for those late 4th quarter commercial breaks.

The end of football games has become like the end of basketball games; the correct strategy is to play for 2 For 1 and make sure you have the ball for the last shot.

If you score the go ahead touchdown with 2 minutes left, You Lose.

It's the 4 minute offense that is the lost art and the rare feat and the winning strategy.

The Eagles won the Super Bowl last year primarily because they are the one team that has actually figured this out.  The Chiefs are not playing in this Super Bowl because they have not figured this out.

Whether it's "ego management" or inability to evolve tactically, teams are still "trusting their defense" in scenarios where modern rules and modern reffing make it insane to do so.

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also, "because it's the Saints and they have Drew Brees" which is probably more in line with the thought process in that particular case but I have chosen my hill to die on and dag nabbit I am going to rant. :)

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That goes back to Brady as the GOAT.  He very well might be the greatest but how are we comparing that?  The Patriots have reached 9 Super Bowls. Would he be playing in this many games if he played in a different era under the old rules where QBs were treated like any other player on the field?  Plus, how much credit goes to Bill? The Patriots were 11-5 the season without Brady.  They didn't make the playoffs but that was poor luck. This year they went 11-5 and got a first round bye.  Also,  let's look at the division they are in.  Jets, Bills and Dolphins,  sorry @Dolfan in NYC . That's not been exactly a tough spot for the Pats to be in.  We are talking about 3 teams that have very little success in recent years. Miami plays the Patriots well but it's not just about the 6 division games. It's about winning the division and then having a bye which the Pats can do every year.  Chargers at 12-4 didn't have a home game this year. Bears at 12-4 were playing in the wild card round. 

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4 hours ago, Niners Fan in CT said:

That goes back to Brady as the GOAT.  He very well might be the greatest but how are we comparing that?  The Patriots have reached 9 Super Bowls. Would he be playing in this many games if he played in a different era under the old rules where QBs were treated like any other player on the field?

Everyone else would be playing under the same rules.  Ty Law as a corner where he could mug receivers like it was the 1970s (insert he did anyway comment here) and no salary cap?  He might have won all nine.  For what it's worth I think that across era comparisons should largely be treated as a bit of fun.

(The Patriots have reached 11 Super Bowls, but I know what you meant)

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Plus, how much credit goes to Bill?

Absolutely tons obviously.

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The Patriots were 11-5 the season without Brady.  They didn't make the playoffs but that was poor luck. This year they went 11-5 and got a first round bye.  Also,  let's look at the division they are in.

That's just the way it goes.  The Seahawks won their division at 7-9 and got a playoff spot in 2010 depriving 2 10-6 teams.  His win percentage against non-AFCE opponents is comparable and that's largely playing a first place schedule throughout his career.

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FWIW, over this 8 straight trips to the AFC title game run, the AFC East actuality has the best cumulative win percentage by the three non-champions of any division.

The 2008 11-5 thing is fascinating to me. It's objectively a very good record, but it also was a five game drop off from the previous year. 

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On ‎1‎/‎22‎/‎2019 at 3:19 AM, Brian Fowler said:

It just now dawns on me that all three teams from the Pats initial run of titles have been turn down, rebuilt, and now made it to the Super Bowl again in the last five years.

Even better than full circle, the Pats can be beaten by a Rams team whose presence in the Super Bowl is the result of a non-call even more egregious than the tuck rule. 

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Aikman often suffered more vicious hits in a single game against the Eagles during his first few seasons than modern QB's endure in an entire season. Now if you want to know how massively passing numbers have exploded, just go back to Steve Young's 1992 MVP season, when he led the league with 25 TD passes and Aikman was 3rd with 23. Nowadays there are probably 10 guys who have that many before Thanksgiving year in, year out. 

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35 minutes ago, FluffSnackwell said:

Aikman often suffered more vicious hits in a single game against the Eagles during his first few seasons than modern QB's endure in an entire season. Now if you want to know how massively passing numbers have exploded, just go back to Steve Young's 1992 MVP season, when he led the league with 25 TD passes and Aikman was 3rd with 23. Nowadays there are probably 10 guys who have that many before Thanksgiving year in, year out. 

I looked the other day, Montana and Young barely ever threw over 500 attempts in a season, Brady has gone over 600 like 6 times or something I was reading. And he still never gets hit or if he does they have to not hit below the knees, not hit in the head and not drive him into the ground.

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1 hour ago, Niners Fan in CT said:

@johnnyboy I don't think there's an argument to be made for Brees or Peyton vs. Brady, I'm just talking about the trouble people run in comparing previous eras, the game is totally different now.

I completely agree.  Part of the fun is making the case for your guy.  It's like in soccer: How dominant would Diego Maradonna have been if the tackle from behind had been outlawed before his playing career started or would defenders have played him differently if they couldn't clatter through him?

One thing I think that does factor into the case for Brady is although the rules now favour offences, those dynastic teams of the past couldn't have been kept together under the rules that exist today.  Also, he's effectively played across two eras, and thrived in both, with the less contact on the QB era and the post-knee injury don't touch the QB unless it's Cam Newton era.

56 minutes ago, Niners Fan in CT said:

Brady has gone over 600 like 6 times or something I was reading. And he still never gets hit or if he does they have to not hit below the knees, not hit in the head and not drive him into the ground.

Hadn't he won three Super Bowls before those rules came in though?

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2 hours ago, Brian Fowler said:

FWIW, over this 8 straight trips to the AFC title game run, the AFC East actuality has the best cumulative win percentage by the three non-champions of any division.

The 2008 11-5 thing is fascinating to me. It's objectively a very good record, but it also was a five game drop off from the previous year. 

The Dolphins went 12-2 after their undefeated season, and they didn't lose their most important player one quarter into the first game.  So, regressing to the mean even that much is...well, it's pretty good.

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The one legitimate argument I've heard Joe Montana make is that there aren't any consistently good much less great teams anymore except the Patriots, who obviously fit that ball due in equal measure to having Brady and Bellichick. Montana may have been on loaded teams himself but in order to make it to the Super Bowl his teams also had to go through some pretty loaded teams. Brady has obviously thrived during an era stricken by parity but in doing so he's also had arguably the best coach (in the history of the game) helping him navigate through a field of fatally flawed teams. 

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56 minutes ago, FluffSnackwell said:

The one legitimate argument I've heard Joe Montana make is that there aren't any consistently good much less great teams anymore except the Patriots, who obviously fit that ball due in equal measure to having Brady and Bellichick.

However, the 49ers were still successful immediately following Montana's departure (NFC championship game and then a Super Bowl win the following season?).  I don't think Bryan Hoyer is dragging this Patriots team to an AFC Championship game.

...he's also had arguably the best coach (in the history of the game) helping him navigate through a field of fatally flawed teams.

It's not like Montana didn't have Bill Walsh and then a Walsh disciple.

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