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2018 NCAAF: CONF. CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK


Dolfan in NYC

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5 minutes ago, Niners Fan in CT said:

If these results hold I think the top 4 will be  

1. Alabama 

2. Clemson 

3. Oklahoma 

4. Notre Dame 

Why?  Because the committee likes to do things that don't make sense so they will jump an undefeated Notre Dame and have Clemson/OU kill each other in the other game. 

5. Ohio St. 

6. Georgia 

7. UCF (fucked again)

The committee isn't dropping a fucking 12-0 team to below a 1 loss team. You may think the committee does shit that doesn't make sense, but they're not that stupid. 

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40 minutes ago, Craig H said:

The committee isn't dropping a fucking 12-0 team to below a 1 loss team. You may think the committee does shit that doesn't make sense, but they're not that stupid. 

The first year of the playoff they had undefeated Florida St. #3 while Alabama/Oregon were 1 and 2 (both with one loss I believe).  Florida St. ended up getting killed by Oregon so it made the committee look brilliant but at the time it didn't make a lot of sense to have FSU at #3.   

It was a similar scenario to Notre Dame.  FSU "struggled" with some lesser opponents.   ND had a couple close calls including against USC in their final game.  I'm just saying,  it's possible..  

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Think we're getting Alabama/Oklahoma and Clemson/Notre Dame as our semifinals.

There's no reason to move Alabama, Clemson, and Notre Dame from the 1/2/3 spots after today, unless the pollsters want to engage in some supreme fuckery.

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I'm guessing the reason is that the model has never had to deal with an independent undefeated team getting in before, but 538's CFP model actually gives Bama and Clemson both a >99% chance to get in, Oklahoma 72%, Ohio 66% and ND 62%. Again, I'm betting the model just not having any previous experience with ND explains it, but it's kinda hilarious.

Everyone else is below 1%, including UCF and Georgia (presumably because no Group of 5 or 2 loss team has ever made it)

 

FWIW, the top four by FPI would be even more ridiculous. Alabama, Clemson, Georgia and Michigan. Strength of Record isn't out yet for this week, but it's traditionally been the metric that most closely tracks to the committee's decisions.

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Kirk Herbstreit actually says Georgia should be #3.  That's hilarious.  A 2-loss team that won only 9 games against FBS opponents should be #3.  Sure thing, Kirk.

Georgia had maybe the worst OOC schedule of all-time - Samford, Austin Peay, UMass, and Middle Tennessee.  Two FCS opponents and two FBS opponents I had to look up to confirm they weren't FCS.

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6 hours ago, Tabe said:

Kirk Herbstreit actually says Georgia should be #3.  That's hilarious.  A 2-loss team that won only 9 games against FBS opponents should be #3.  Sure thing, Kirk.

Georgia had maybe the worst OOC schedule of all-time - Samford, Austin Peay, UMass, and Middle Tennessee.  Two FCS opponents and two FBS opponents I had to look up to confirm they weren't FCS.

That schedule is wrong.  Georgia plays Georgia Tech OOC every year.  Scratch one of those FCS games.

Middle Tennessee was actually a pretty decent mid-major team this year, too.  Runner-up in C-USA.

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