2018-19 NCAAF: WEEK 12

[Brian Fowler]

If his health is nearly as bad as it looks, etc. he really should get out. I mean, he's got nothing to prove in terms of success (he's gonna be overshadowed by Saban regardless, but three national titles at two different schools is a legacy that stacks up with almost everyone ever), he's been rocked by enough scandals that he probably can't ever fully rehab his image anyway, and he's made millions upon millions of dollars.

Go home, get a studio job once a week for 5 months a year, see your family.

[Brian Fowler]

This season could end up being the strongest argument for expanding the playoffs we ever see, BTW.

Anything can happen these next two weeks, obviously, but we have a very real chance of having Norte Dame, all five P5 champions, and maybe one runner up finish with 12 or more wins, plus a 13-0 group of five team on a 2 year, 25 game winning streak.

If we get all chalk with the top teams these next two weeks, then there will be six teams with a real legitimate playoff argument before we even get to UCF (who by all rights should move up to at least 9th if not 8th this week.) If the only upset is Georgia over Bama (give or take an Ohio over Michigan, but the Bucks resume would be weaker than the Wolverines) then we would have seven legitimate arguments in the power 5 + plus Norte Dame, again without factoring in UCF.

In the latter scenario, if Bama were to get the 4th slot with Clemson, ND and UGA, leaving 12 win champions from the Big XII, Pac-12 and B1G out feels like it would almost guarantee we get a serious playoff expansion discussion rolling, and quite likely an 8 team playoff becoming a reality quickly (remember, the biggest reason we have the current 4 team playoff instead of the BCS is that Bama/LSU title game)

Which would also possibly give the group of five a way in. Although it wouldn't have been enough for UCF last year without further rule changes. The Knights finished 12th, the highest a group of five team had ever gotten (they are now 11th, and will almost certainly move to at least 10th and quite possibly 9th and maybe even 8th this week.) It's entirely possible in that "Georgia over Bama, everything else is chalk" scenario they'd still be on the outside of the theoretical 8 team playoff though. They'd clearly move above Ohio State after a loss to Michigan, if they don't already jump them this week (they definitely should. Their win over Cincinnati coupled with Ohio needing overtime to beat Maryland seems like it would give them that boost.)

But they are currently 4 spots behind a two loss but very good LSU, as well as behind every 1 or 0 loss P5+ND team. West Virginia's loss will move them up at least one spot. I personally think they should pass Ohio State and LSU, although LSU would also need to fall behind Washington State hypothetically, who they are currently one spot ahead of. LSU probably has a better argument than Ohio right now, at any rate. If UCF doesn't leap LSU this week, they both play road games against 7-4 teams next week, and UCF does have the conference title game to change the committee's mind. But if they stay behind the Tigers, then the hypothetical puts Central Florida 9th and still looking in from the outside in would be 8 team. (There's also a question if a 2 loss Michigan who fell in a close loss to Ohio would fall behind them or not but I prefer not to think that way)

So, that's the no chaos doomsday scenario for the committee. The all chaos, can we get Central Florida in scenario goes more like this:

Washington State loses either the Apple Cup or PAC-12 title game. The whole conference is out. Nobody else has less than 3 losses, and the Cougars resume is damn thin with even the one loss.

Oklahoma loses to West Virginia, Texas ends up winning the title game. 3 loss champion, the one remaining two loss team doesn't have a conference title to fall back on.

Northwestern wins the B1G. Four loss conference championship yikes.

Auburn wins the Iron Bowl. GA Tech pulls the upset of the year over Georgia. Georgia wins the SEC.

Texas A&M upsets LSU for good measure.

That gives us Clemson, ND, and UCF undefeated and not a single one loss Power 5 team. The Golden Knights would almost have to get in, right?