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MLB HOF 2019 Ballot

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Eh, I'm basically done on that discussion point. Might have one to go into how Kevin Brown is better then his baseball reference listing at some point though.

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I think going forward, for run producers 1500 rbi isn't a bad standard. Was I a little flippant about it? Yes. I still think that under around 2500 hits (and preferabliy a bit closer to 3000) is more what I look for in a HOFer. But then a again its not like I have a HOF vote, and will never have one either given that I'm not liekly to be a sports writer.

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5 hours ago, Kuetsar said:

I think going forward, for run producers 1500 rbi isn't a bad standard. Was I a little flippant about it? Yes. I still think that under around 2500 hits (and preferabliy a bit closer to 3000) is more what I look for in a HOFer. But then a again its not like I have a HOF vote, and will never have one either given that I'm not liekly to be a sports writer.

I'm afraid that I'm with Bill James on this one, magic numbers and minimum standards are horrible ideas for reasons we've recently seen play out. I've remarked before on my first baseball book that I owned as a wee lad, at the time of publication (around 1962 or thereabouts) every retired player with either 3000 hits or 300 HRs was in the HOF. These seemed like "magic numbers" until of course, they weren't... As Roy Sievers, Frank Howard, Lee May, Joe Adcock, Rocky Colavito, Willie Horton, et al retired over the next few years it became obvious that any pretty good player could reach 300 HRs. How about 400? Well, no one ever mistook Dave Kingman for a HOFr, so how about 500? It took the poster boy for compiling stats, Raffy Palmeiro to show that 500 was no longer that big of a deal. How about 600? Finally, we have a number that everyone can agree on, oh, wait... What's that? McGwire and Sosa? uh, yeah... 

Now how about that 1500 RBI business? Considering that this plateau is a result for a specialist, it has to be a singularly bad idea. When you have two of the greatest lead-off men to ever play the game, Henderson and Raines barred admission because they didn't drive in enough runs, there's a problem. If we are going to use any sort of yardstick at all (and I'm not for a second suggesting that we do, as if the years since WWII has taught us anything, it's that the game is dynamic and while we're currently in a boom period for stats to trend upwards, that could change. In 1961 no one watching Mantle and Maris tear it up would've believed that we were less than a decade away from a man winning the Triple Crown with less than 50 HRs, but that's exactly what happened, we settled into an era of pitching dominance. Runs created is a far more useful tool than RBIs, as it is no discriminator of power hitters vs. the table setter. SImply stated, every player from the lead-off man to the #9 guy has the same job, to create runs. And there are as many ways to go about this as there are batting stances.

Dragon makes the admittedly weakass case that Lance Berkman was something special and I guess part if that argument hinges on his 50+ HR season. I can recall a time when I could easily rattle off the players that had achieved that milestone, including the gentlemen who had done it twice. From the time Mantle and Maris did it to George Foster was over a decade, from Foster to Cecil Fielder another ten years elapsed, clearly 50 in a season took a prodigious power hitter getting hot and staying hot. However, once the ferocious power hitters such as Luis Gonzalez and Brady Anderson made it, 50 didn't seem so special any more and once Sosa managed to bang over 60 three times with a needle hanging out of his ass, 50HRs in a season was just what you would expect a power hitter to reach upon occasion. 

As much as we might like to delude ourselves into thinking that the HOF is reserved for the most elite of five-tool players like Mays, Bonds,, & Griffey, the reality is that the HOF is also comprised of a number of specialists, be they the fleet of foot like Henderson or the ponderous slugger like Killebrew or the offensive threat from traditionally a defense-centric position like shortstop, there are a multitude of ways that a player can differentiate himself from his fellows with the net result being that people realize that they're watching something special..  Now I'm old enough to remember the playing days of Eddie Mathews and Ken Boyer and there was no doubt in mind that I was watching two future HOFrs hold down the hot corner. Well, Mathews made it in rather easily as well he should have, but Boyer is still waiting, what happened? Well, for starters Mike Schmidt and George Brett happened and their numbers viewed without context make Boyer seem pretty ordinary. With context, Boyer is the best eligible 3rd baseman not enshrined. He'll drop a spot when A-Rod becomes eligible. Viewed without context Darrell Evans and Graig Nettles HR totals seemingly put Boyer to shame. Actually, they do nothing of the kind, Boyer is a bonafide HOFr, what he accomplished during his time was extraordinary. Comparing what Schmidt did in the 1980s to what Boyer did in the 1960s is just silly. During Boyer's playing days a man hitting 42 HRs had a reasonable expectation of leading the league, 32HRs likely put you in the top ten. Nowadays a 3rd baseman hitting less than 33HRs in a season had best be brushing up on his conversational Japanese. 

In baseball, stats are #1, but context is a very close #2.

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I think raffy probably belongs, since he did both 3000 and 500, but if he doesn't get in so be it. I agree comparing 60's stats with 90's and 2000's+ stats is nuts. I'll admit that looking at the number Boyer looks anemic, but I was born after he retired, so i"ll bow to superior judgment on that. I think magic numbers have value no so much as to who gets in, but who stays out. I don't think that for a player who played since the numbers explosion that low 2k hits is enough, but enough kicking the dead horse.

Pitchers are tougher. After relooking at Mussina's stats, I think he should go in.Now do you make him the floor, or Andy Pettite? Roy Halladay was Really fuckng good, but his stats aren't quite as impressive, and by all the baseball reference numbers he's borderline. So for pitchers do you go by wins or WAR or what?

 

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1 hour ago, Kuetsar said:

I think raffy probably belongs, since he did both 3000 and 500, but if he doesn't get in so be it. I agree comparing 60's stats with 90's and 2000's+ stats is nuts. I'll admit that looking at the number Boyer looks anemic, but I was born after he retired, so i"ll bow to superior judgment on that. I think magic numbers have value no so much as to who gets in, but who stays out. I don't think that for a player who played since the numbers explosion that low 2k hits is enough, but enough kicking the dead horse.

Pitchers are tougher. After relooking at Mussina's stats, I think he should go in.Now do you make him the floor, or Andy Pettite? Roy Halladay was Really fuckng good, but his stats aren't quite as impressive, and by all the baseball reference numbers he's borderline. So for pitchers do you go by wins or WAR or what?

 

I think Halladay is a lock.  He comes up about one and a half to two years short on the career WAR and JAWS numbers, but he's strong on the Bill James scale--he exceeds the Black Ink number, just misses the Gray Ink(though that's for the average HOF), exceeds the Hall of Fame Monitor(and is just shy of the 130 mark that is considered a "virtual cinch"), and is just shy of the average HOF mark.  Halladay won two Cy Young Awards, was top 5 in 5 other years(and should have received at least one vote in 2002 when only 4 AL pitchers received votes) and was the best pitcher in baseball for a 6 year stretch from 2006 to 2011 by fWAR--actually he had the most fWAR for the ten year span of 2002 to 2011(Johan Santana might have had a better peak run it was just shorter like his whole career) but he had two years cut short by a shoulder issue and a broken leg.  Then shoulder surgery after two seasons of shoulder issues and a back problem ended his career--likely a couple of years early.  If a guy has a career cut short by injury, he had better have been the best at his position for a decent stretch--and Halladay was absolutely that. 

Pettitte for me doesn't make the cut, he had two really strong years and while those were 2 of the 5 years he finished in the top 6 in Cy Young voting, the other three years seem to be simply due to win totals and pinstripes.  The rest of his career he was above average(career 117 ERA+) but that's about it, it's why comes up short on the Black and Gray Ink numbers, the career WAR, 7 year peak and JAWS score.  He's the 90th best SP by JAWS, behind guys like Mark Buehrle, Chuck Finley, and Kevin Appier--guys that no one is confusing for Hall of Famers.  He had the good fortune to pitch for two excellent teams in the Yankees and Astros, every year in the majors he made at least 21 starts he won at least 11 games thanks to strong offenses backing him up.  He's ahead of 16 Hall of Famers on the JAWS list but only 4 of those 16 were post-WWII pitchers.  I wouldn't yell too loudly if he made it in, but I don't think I'd ever vote for him if given the chance.  

I definitely wouldn't go by wins or RBI...really any "magic" or benchmark numbers as the only way for someone to get into the Hall.  We have so many tools and better stats to use to compare players across eras and to quantify value to determine if they should make it in or not--wOBA, OPS+, ERA+, ERA-, WAR, JAWS.  

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On 11/28/2018 at 9:52 PM, gatling said:

I think Halladay is a lock.  He comes up about one and a half to two years short on the career WAR and JAWS numbers, but he's strong on the Bill James scale--he exceeds the Black Ink number, just misses the Gray Ink(though that's for the average HOF), exceeds the Hall of Fame Monitor(and is just shy of the 130 mark that is considered a "virtual cinch"), and is just shy of the average HOF mark.  Halladay won two Cy Young Awards, was top 5 in 5 other years(and should have received at least one vote in 2002 when only 4 AL pitchers received votes) and was the best pitcher in baseball for a 6 year stretch from 2006 to 2011 by fWAR--actually he had the most fWAR for the ten year span of 2002 to 2011(Johan Santana might have had a better peak run it was just shorter like his whole career) but he had two years cut short by a shoulder issue and a broken leg.  Then shoulder surgery after two seasons of shoulder issues and a back problem ended his career--likely a couple of years early.  If a guy has a career cut short by injury, he had better have been the best at his position for a decent stretch--and Halladay was absolutely that. 

Pettitte for me doesn't make the cut, he had two really strong years and while those were 2 of the 5 years he finished in the top 6 in Cy Young voting, the other three years seem to be simply due to win totals and pinstripes.  The rest of his career he was above average(career 117 ERA+) but that's about it, it's why comes up short on the Black and Gray Ink numbers, the career WAR, 7 year peak and JAWS score.  He's the 90th best SP by JAWS, behind guys like Mark Buehrle, Chuck Finley, and Kevin Appier--guys that no one is confusing for Hall of Famers.  He had the good fortune to pitch for two excellent teams in the Yankees and Astros, every year in the majors he made at least 21 starts he won at least 11 games thanks to strong offenses backing him up.  He's ahead of 16 Hall of Famers on the JAWS list but only 4 of those 16 were post-WWII pitchers.  I wouldn't yell too loudly if he made it in, but I don't think I'd ever vote for him if given the chance.  

I definitely wouldn't go by wins or RBI...really any "magic" or benchmark numbers as the only way for someone to get into the Hall.  We have so many tools and better stats to use to compare players across eras and to quantify value to determine if they should make it in or not--wOBA, OPS+, ERA+, ERA-, WAR, JAWS.  

We are agreed on most all of this. Halladay is to me a no-brainer, his decade of 2002-2011 stacks up very nicely against most anyone, and when you consider he did this in an offense-based era, it looks even more impressive. I'm in agreement about Petitte, though in truth all three pitchers that you named had flashes were they did indeed look like HOFrs. Believe me, Mark Buehrle channeled Bob Gibson whenever he pitched against the Mariners. If he could've pitched his whole career against the M's he'd have 300 wins. Petitte makes a fine floor for starting pitchers and when you consider how good his teams were you'd expect a more impressive record, but  it's not there. Funny thing is he's a lot like a latter-day Jack Morris, a perfectly good pitcher whose teams created the illusion that he was a great one, which he certainly wasn't.  There are certainly worse pitchers in the HOF, but I certainly wouldn't get excited about putting Petitte in, (I wouldn't say that his presence besmirches the HOF, but there are far more deserving candidates.)

And to answer Kuetsar in the same post... Context is everything, when you look at what Halladay did in an offense-based era, he goes from borderline to no-brainer with a quickness. Raffy is the very definition of don't get hurt, play for a long time and compile numbers. I got to watch his whole career as did most everyone posting here and I never once said to myself, "That's a HOFr!" Now I'm having a hard time reconciling that with not one, but two "magic numbers". Like it or not, you have to be pretty fucking consistent for a long time to get to 3000 hits, there are far more great players that didn't reach that milestone than did. However, the other guy to reach it recently I remarked several times watching him play, "There's a HOFr", in fact, every season but the time spent Seattle, Adrian Beltre looked to be a HOFr. I'm not going to say that he's the best 3rd baseman not in the HOF, I still think Boyer was superior (you can't compare the eras), but Beltre was one hell of a ballplayer.

Now 500 HRs? In some cases it's a hallmark of a great player, in others, it's the mark of a specialist (and an important specialist to be sure, all the table-setting is for naught if you don't have that big bat to drive everyone home.) However, it could also be argued that some specialists are so one-dimensional that those 500 HRs ring a bit hollow. Let's face it, if Dave Kingman wasn't such an obnoxious jerk, he could have played another couple of seasons and almost assuredly would have reached 500HRs. Would he be a HOFr then? Like bloody hell, he would have, he would be a lumbering oaf that happened to hang around long enough to hit 500HRs.  So much for the "magic". I still think 3000 hits is a magic number, there is something to be said for that kind of consistency spread out over at least a 17 or 18 year career. 

Any of you guys know off the top of your head who reached 3000 in the fewest number of plate appearances?

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4 minutes ago, OSJ said:

We are agreed on most all of this. Halladay is to me a no-brainer, his decade of 2002-2011 stacks up very nicely against most anyone, and when you consider he did this in an offense-based era, it looks even more impressive. I'm in agreement about Petitte, though in truth all three pitchers that you named had flashes were they did indeed look like HOFrs. Believe me, Mark Buehrle channeled Bob Gibson whenever he pitched against the Mariners. If he could've pitched his whole career against the M's he'd have 300 wins. Petitte makes a fine floor for starting pitchers and when you consider how good his teams were you'd expect a more impressive record, but  it's not there. Funny thing is he's a lot like a latter-day Jack Morris, a perfectly good pitcher whose teams created the illusion that he was a great one, which he certainly wasn't.  There are certainly worse pitchers in the HOF, but I certainly wouldn't get excited about putting Petitte in, (I wouldn't say that his presence besmirches the HOF, but there are far more deserving candidates.)

And to answer Kuetsar in the same post... Context is everything, when you look at what Halladay did in an offense-based era, he goes from borderline to no-brainer with a quickness. Raffy is the very definition of don't get hurt, play for a long time and compile numbers. I got to watch his whole career as did most everyone posting here and I never once said to myself, "That's a HOFr!" Now I'm having a hard time reconciling that with not one, but two "magic numbers". Like it or not, you have to be pretty fucking consistent for a long time to get to 3000 hits, there are far more great players that didn't reach that milestone than did. However, the other guy to reach it recently I remarked several times watching him play, "There's a HOFr", in fact, every season but the time spent Seattle, Adrian Beltre looked to be a HOFr. I'm not going to say that he's the best 3rd baseman not in the HOF, I still think Boyer was superior (you can't compare the eras), but Beltre was one hell of a ballplayer.

Now 500 HRs? In some cases it's a hallmark of a great player, in others, it's the mark of a specialist (and an important specialist to be sure, all the table-setting is for naught if you don't have that big bat to drive everyone home.) However, it could also be argued that some specialists are so one-dimensional that those 500 HRs ring a bit hollow. Let's face it, if Dave Kingman wasn't such an obnoxious jerk, he could have played another couple of seasons and almost assuredly would have reached 500HRs. Would he be a HOFr then? Like bloody hell, he would have, he would be a lumbering oaf that happened to hang around long enough to hit 500HRs.  So much for the "magic". I still think 3000 hits is a magic number, there is something to be said for that kind of consistency spread out over at least a 17 or 18 year career. 

Any of you guys know off the top of your head who reached 3000 in the fewest number of plate appearances?

Will get to the rest of this later, but I always assume the answer to any crazy stats based on hits is Tony Gwynn

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Thing is, Raffy wasn't just a compiler. From 1993 to 2003, he hit 37+ homers every year except the strike season. 

He was tainted by steroids, no question, but he put up big numbers for a long, long time. 

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15 hours ago, OSJ said:

Any of you guys know off the top of your head who reached 3000 in the fewest number of plate appearances?

Admittedly, I looked it up. It was Ty Cobb.

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4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Admittedly, I looked it up. It was Ty Cobb.

Which really shouldn't be a surprise when you think about it.

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2 hours ago, El Dragon said:

Early Nomination for worst ballot we will get this year

Mariano Rivera

Curt Schilling

Jeff Kent

Placedo Polanco

Omar Visquel

Yeeeeeep.

Placido fucking Polanco? WTF?!

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21 hours ago, El Dragon said:

Early Nomination for worst ballot we will get this year

Mariano Rivera

Curt Schilling

Jeff Kent

Placedo Polanco

Omar Visquel

Yeeeeeep.

That's just grotesque; really, no other word at my command fits so perfectly. Is the one logical and perfectly correct pick supposed to make up for the four brain-dead absurdities? Well, it doesn't... The writer that submitted this needs to cover nothing more serious than Roller Derby from now on. 

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On 12/1/2018 at 4:51 AM, Tabe said:

Thing is, Raffy wasn't just a compiler. From 1993 to 2003, he hit 37+ homers every year except the strike season. 

He was tainted by steroids, no question, but he put up big numbers for a long, long time. 

It wasn't so much that he did the roids, it's that he foolishly lied about it over and over again when people were just begging him to tell the truth and move on, but NOOOOOOO... Raffy is apparently one of those guys that gets his jollies from thinking up over-convoluted nonsense that no one with an iota of intelligence would believe for a second and then doubles down on the absurdities for good measure. What can you expect from a guy who is doing the nasty with Ryne Sandberg's wife? C'mon, you guys were both Cubs once-upon-a-time, where's the sacred brotherhood of the South Side? 

So he was a compiler of big numbers?

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Yeah, I would go with that :)

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For what its worth, Rafael Palmeiro is the only person who has 500 HRs who I don't believe is a hall of famer.  He was really good, but his career spanned the period of time when I was obsessed with baseball, and there wasn't a moment where I thought to myself that Rafael Palmeiro was a hall of famer.  He compiled a lot of huge numbers, but I can't think of a single memorable moment.

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On 12/3/2018 at 3:34 PM, supremebve said:

For what its worth, Rafael Palmeiro is the only person who has 500 HRs who I don't believe is a hall of famer.  He was really good, but his career spanned the period of time when I was obsessed with baseball, and there wasn't a moment where I thought to myself that Rafael Palmeiro was a hall of famer.  He compiled a lot of huge numbers, but I can't think of a single memorable moment.

I'm betting the former Mrs. Sandberg can think of a few. (After all, we have the Viagra commercials as testimony.)

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40 minutes ago, OSJ said:

I'm betting the former Mrs. Sandberg can think of a few. (After all, we have the Viagra commercials as testimony.)

So you're saying, when he was pointing his finger in Congress he was subtlely trying to get him to sniff his finger?

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On 12/2/2018 at 12:46 PM, OSJ said:

That's just grotesque; really, no other word at my command fits so perfectly. Is the one logical and perfectly correct pick supposed to make up for the four brain-dead absurdities? Well, it doesn't... The writer that submitted this needs to cover nothing more serious than Roller Derby from now on. 

XFL 2.0

XFL 2: Electric Boogaloo should have its own ridiculous version of Matt Hardy's Matt Facts. 

XFL Fact: NFL stands for No Fun League

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38 minutes ago, supremebve said:

So you're saying, when he was pointing his finger in Congress he was subtlely trying to get him to sniff his finger?

I ain't touching that, nope, uh-uh.

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On 12/1/2018 at 3:31 PM, El Dragon said:

Early Nomination for worst ballot we will get this year

Jon Heyman's is up there - not as bad as that one but still

BTW - if you haven't been following the HOF tracker

There are only 22 public ballots so far but amazingly there are still 2 100% candidates - Mariano and Edgar

Now as a reminder they were the only two names on the one gimmick ballot that has been revealed so far

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Have we mentioned in the thread yet that the HOF removed the public ballot requirement the BBWAA implemented last year? 

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2 hours ago, odessasteps said:

Have we mentioned in the thread yet that the HOF removed the public ballot requirement the BBWAA implemented last year? 

It happened so long ago I think it was mentioned in last year's thread

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