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LethalStriker

By LethalStriker
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, RIPPA said:

I do enjoy that Eddie did feel the need to convince us Jeter belongs in the HOF

No need to convince anybody. We all know he's going in on the first ballot. 

...and damn it, he was robbed of the 2006 AL MVP. Better stats than Justin Morneau in every categoey except HR, RBI, and OPS. The other categories aren't even close in how much better Jeter was.

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Tabe

Tabe

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

No need to convince anybody. We all know he's going in on the first ballot. 

...and damn it, he was robbed of the 2006 AL MVP. Better stats than Justin Morneau in every categoey except HR, RBI, and OPS. The other categories aren't even close in how much better Jeter was.

*20* fewer homers.  76 points lower SLG. Lower OPS+. The voters got it right. 

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The Man Known as Dan

The Man Known as Dan

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Brian Fowler said:

Also 5.8-5.6 WAR.

Jeter is a no question Hall of Famer. He's also overrated.

This is a great way of explaining it. Top 15 SS of all time,  but no real case for top 5. He's basically Barry Larkin if Larkin played on a big market.

 

EDIT: Also, Sizemore should have won the MVP in 2006 anyway so this is all a moot point.

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OSJ

OSJ

Posted
Posted
On 1/25/2019 at 5:10 PM, Ryan said:

Jeter doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame until Bob Uecker makes it in as a player.

But he was Team Captain for the Yankees! Team Captain, I say! With all the duties and prestige that the position entails. Team Captain! AMIRIGHT???

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OSJ

OSJ

Posted
Posted
On 1/23/2019 at 2:26 AM, El Dragon said:

This is where I get odd looks:  While I wouldn't vote Polanco in the Hall, if gun to the head, I had to pick out the better ball player, I take Polanco over Vizquel.

I would say "Rabbit Maranville says "Go Screw!", you better empty the clip, muthafucka."

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OSJ

OSJ

Posted
Posted

I have been neglectful of this topic, I realize that we spoke of Darrell Evans and Dave Parker, yet somehow I overlooked Dwight Evans! Let us rectify that mistake ASAP! Here goes:

 

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

No, the very idea is silly. 


2. Was he the best player on his team?

Now we're getting somewhere,  the much flashier Jim Rice grabbed all the ink, but when you look at production, there is no question that the quiet man who simply went about his business as a hitter and superb defensive player was better than Rice in every possible way.


3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

I don't think that you can find a better corner outfielder than Dwight Evans for 90% of his career. The other 10% he was still pretty damn good.


4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races? Yes, He was studly in the WS in 1975 and even more so in 1986.  It's hard to imagine the Red Sox in the post-season without Evans. 


5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

He was and he did. Only in very last two years did he fall off the cliff that age brings us all to. 


6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

No, he is not. 


7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

RF is a position over-represented in the HOF with several players who I feel are not as good as Evans was, but you have a hard time making the case for Evans when Gary Sheffield sits outside. My preference is Evans who was a complete player whereas Sheff was a bat and an awesome one, but a total liability anywhere in the field.


 8. Do the numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

No, the raw numbers do not. However, it's all about context and when we look at Evans spending much of his career in a pitching dominated era, the numbers begin to look a lot better.  That said, the numbers are close, damn close without factoring in the era.


9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

I don't think I've ever seen a better defensive outfielder than Evans unless it be Griffey or Andruw Jones. That's pretty good company.


10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

Eh, Sheffield has the offensive numbers, but was a butcher in the field. Evans defense was sublime and his offensive totals are nothing to sneeze at. I'd say that you could make a very compelling case that he should go in before Sheff.


11. How many MVP-type season did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

1981 he had a really solid case, but generally speaking Evans was one of those guys who was consistent without ever having the breakout MVP-type season. 


12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many games get in?

Only three AS seasons which seems strangely low when you look at the 8 GGs. As I mentioned, Jim Rice was a lot flashier and seemed to be the guy that Boston pushed. 


13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant? 

Oh sure, I can't imagine too many managers who wouldn't be delighted to build a team around Dwight Evans. 


14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? We he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? did he change the game in any way?

Not that I can think of. 

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

By all accounts, a fine gentleman and a credit to his species. I don't think I've ever heard a bad word about Dwight Evans and the Boston press and fans are notoriously vicious bastards. 

 

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Tabe

Tabe

Posted
Posted

Alright, OSJ challenged me for my take on Dwight Evans.  

TL;DR version?  Good player, often excellent, not a HOF'er, not really even close.

Deeper dive and response to some of his points:

1) Evans had a very short tenure as the best player on the Red Sox, specifically 1981 & 1982.  During those two years, the team did nothing (to be fair, most of the hitting lineup for 81 & 82 for Boston was frighteningly bad).  Prior to that, Fred Lynn was Boston's best player (when healthy) or Jim Rice was.  After that, it's Wade Boggs or even a resurgent Rice in 1983.

2) Evans had a very good year in 1986 but tanked late in the year when it mattered most, hitting just .244 after Sept 1.  Boston won by 5-1/2 games, though, so perhaps it didn't matter.  His WAR that year was 4.4 suggesting that Boston would have, in fact, made the playoffs without him.

3) He had a very good World Series in 1986, hitting .308 with a pair of homers.  That followed up an ALCS where he was terrible, however, hitting just .214. 1975 was similar - terrible ALCS, good World Series.

4) Evans put up fine offensive numbers for his career but nothing overwhelming.  385 homers in 20 years, an average of 24 every 162.  Nothing spectacular there.  3 seasons of 30+ homers (one the juiced-ball season of 1987), plus one of 29, and 1981 where he likely would have made it as he had 22 during the shortened season.  Career OPS+ of 127 - good, nothing great.  Lower than Fred Lynn, whom no one sees as a HOFer.  

5) Evans on the road for his career - .261 average, .798 OPS.  Again, pretty good, nothing special.  Much better at home - .283 & .885.  Nothing too crazy in those splits, unlike Jim Rice.  

6) For all his defensive prowess, Evans grades out well below average in RF/9 and RF/G against league averages, both on a yearly basis and for his career.  Evans, RF/G career - 2.11.  League average - 2.42.  Some of that is playing in a slightly smaller RF in Fenway.  Most of that is Evans lacking a bit of range.

7) Give it the grain of salt it's worth, his dWAR for his career is -3.8.  I put very, very little stock in that number though.

 

So, what's the conclusion?  Well, as I said above, not a HOF'er, not really even close.  In baseball, to be a HOFer, you either gotta be an accumulator with big career numbers or you gotta be spectacular in a shorter career.  Evans was neither.  2400 hits and 385 homers are nice numbers for a corner OF.  They're the kind where you look at your own baseball card and say "man, I had a nice career".  But they're not overwhelming.  Evans never had a big, breakout season.  1981 & 1984 are probably closest to that.  Could easily have been MVP in 1981 but finished 3rd.  Not even in the running in 1984.  

At the end of the day, you've got a right fielder who won 8 Gold Gloves mainly because he had a cannon for an arm.  And he'd give you .275/25/88 or thereabouts every year.  Guys like that are valuable cogs in a winning team.  They're just not Hall of Famers.  

 

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OSJ

OSJ

Posted
Posted

We haven't talked about it (that I'm aware of), but Bill James rolled out a new stat to examine HOF-worthiness. I've just spent two hours playing with it, and damned if it isn't spot-on. All he's really done is combine Win Shares and WAR (multiplied by 4) to get the new number. What I found particularly interesting was just how solid it was at pointing out the really marginal HOFrs. Basically the bar is set at 500, over that, you're likely a HOFr unless there are extenuating circumstances, under that you probably don't belong. In what should come as a surprise to no one, the famed double-play combo with the stupid poem, Tinker-to-Evers-to-Chance all whiff mightily when evaluated with this tool. What's also fun is to see just how high the truly dominating players score with this tool, as an example, if you were to divide Babe Ruth's score in half, he makes the HOF easily TWICE! Yeah, this tool values the Bambino at the value of two average HOFrs, and that's probably about right.

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OSJ

OSJ

Posted
Posted

http://bjprofiles.bisdata.com/StatisticsReport_new.aspx?Type=117&Team=0&Player=0&men=2

I think that will do it. Be interested to see what you think of it, I'm still playing with it and so far, so good; no weird anomalies. It isn't very useful for extrapolating young players, but then again, that's not what it was designed to do. For evaluating mid-late career players or retired players, seems excellent and also bolsters several of my previous "Throw the Rascals Out!" posts.

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grilledcheese

grilledcheese

Posted
Posted

And lo and behold, it immediately shows its usefulness!!

Larry Walker is my HOF measuring stick, and this puts his HOF value at 598.8. I knew I was right, and anyone that says otherwise can eat it!!

Seriously, though. Thanks for the heads up. Yet another thing to waste time with to construct arguments that are more fun than whatever else I should be doing.

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OSJ

OSJ

Posted
Posted

Just for funsies I ran a half-dozen guys through the tool and came up with the following numbers:

598.2

615.4

541.2

1486.0

461.8

530.2

Remember, 500.0 is supposed to be the cutoff for a HOFr, so who do you suppose we have on this list?

Darrell Evans

Dwight Evans

Rusty Staub

Babe Ruth (like that one wasn't obvious...)

Harold Baines 

Ken Boyer (My poster boy for legit HOFrs who have been unjustly snubbed).

Poor Mr. Baines does stick out like a sore thumb doesn't he? At least he's better than two-thirds of the Tinker-Evers-Chance trio.

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