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October 2013 NHL Thread


Death From Above

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Yeah - it was nice having Biron around for the last few years but apparently the Rangers are going with a youth movement with their backups with the theory of if they are going to suck, might as well get folks experience

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Isles tell me today that they can't sell me a $79 tix to the stadium game after all because those seats are going to "charity". They offered me one for $140. I passed. I've already seen a game outdoors, I'm not spending that type of money for that. And if the Rangers tank I have a feeling those tickets are going to be sold at very reasonable prices on StubHub. Not to mention I'll be seeing Rangers-Isles at the Coliseum next week, and the atmosphere in LI will be far crazier that at YSv2.0. Will be seeing Canucks tomorrow in the latest leg of my "I see everyone on the board's favorite team" tour.

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Canes!Also, the Islanders are a fun team to watch.

They are but they have a bad habit of not playing a full 60 minute game. You can't do that against a team like Carolina and expect to win.

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I wish I had it in me to press some of these people positioning them as advanced hockey stats experts on a few things.  They're lucky hockey is so insular or else their work would be ridiculed by people familiar with what people are doing in football and basketball.  You know, taking analytics and actually telling you real tangible things that teams could/should be doing differently.  Following a combination of shooting % & save % and predicting people will regress does not impress me much. 

 

Shit ... I bet you 9 out of 10 bloggers, even the smart ones, couldn't break down a hockey system or present you with real adjustments that could be made to improve puck possession. 

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I'd take advanced stats in hockey a lot more seriously if they'd stop basing some of it off obvious nonsense like hits, giveaways, takeaways, and faceoffs, the first three of which are nonsense at the best of times, and the fourth which is still fairly questionable how they score "winger wins" sometimes.

 

The basic stats in hockey aren't sorted enough for me to take advanced stats seriously yet, sorry. Baseball this is not. Advanced stats work there because it's such a mathematical game you can virtually play it on paper (I found this was also true of cricket when I followed it closely for several years). I've yet to be sold on it in football or hockey beyond it being "interesting" as opposed to "helpful" the way it is there.

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Which advanced stats look at hits, faceoffs, giveaways or takeaways? Advanced stats geeks argue that faceoffs are overrated if anything, hits usually lead to going out of position or you being hemmed in your own zone too much and nobody, not even NHL scorekeepers take giveaways/takeaways seriously.

 

The guys at the score's backhand shelf blog will break down systems occasionally. I haven't been keeping up with the site so much this season but in the past they would do that, in addition to going step-by-step on how certain goals happened with freeze frames and everything.

 

Also, Mike Santorelli. 

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Justin Bourne does that but he's not really a stat guy.  He's not against it either but I think he sees how limited it is right now in hockey.

 

I'm mostly annoyed by the Leafs getting outshot stuff.  Sure there are a few people in denial but there are always going to be homer writers.  Randy Carlyle knows it's a problem, everyone knows it's a problem.  Pointing it out is getting pretty old.  I don't see much about how they should go about fixing the issue.  Is it tactical?  Is it personnel? 

 

My rant isn't really supporting all the eye test people either because most of them are full of shit too.  It's more the stat guys acting like they've figured it all out when they really haven't. 

 

In lighter news, Mike Santorelli and Brad Richardson continue to be excellent pickups by Mikey G.  Also, Torts is much more as a coach than he was advertised, IMO.

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The Jets would be up 7-3 right now if Braden Holtby was playing at the same level as Ondrej Pavelec. Unfortunately he's playing great, and it's 3-3 right now. Also, fuck Ovie. That mother fucker kills the Jets every time they play.

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Justin Bourne does that but he's not really a stat guy.  He's not against it either but I think he sees how limited it is right now in hockey.

 

I'm mostly annoyed by the Leafs getting outshot stuff.  Sure there are a few people in denial but there are always going to be homer writers.  Randy Carlyle knows it's a problem, everyone knows it's a problem.  Pointing it out is getting pretty old.  I don't see much about how they should go about fixing the issue.  Is it tactical?  Is it personnel? 

 

My rant isn't really supporting all the eye test people either because most of them are full of shit too.  It's more the stat guys acting like they've figured it all out when they really haven't. 

 

In lighter news, Mike Santorelli and Brad Richardson continue to be excellent pickups by Mikey G.  Also, Torts is much more as a coach than he was advertised, IMO.

Not surprised about Tortorella. He was very good in Tampa and made that Rangers team work the only way their personnel could work well. The media bullshit overshadows the fact he's a solid coach. The Canucks have good possession numbers so far, just not getting even league average goaltending. Another under the radar depth guy MG signed that's turning out okay is Ryan Stanton. Could be a hot start that cools off quickly, but can't ask for much more out of a minimum wage mafucker. Shame that of the three guys we're talking about, Santorelli is the one on a one-year deal. He's going to get paid handsomely if he keeps this up by some goofball GM.

 

Not many stats people really say they have it all figured out and more often than not do recognize the shortcomings of trying to encapsulate everything from such a chaotic game. They're mostly throwing out hypotheses supported by stats. It's an interesting time to be a fan, as they often challenge not only traditional standards but more modern fetishes like the focus on zone starts and faceoffs.

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I can't believe how many people are actually buying this "Lars Eller pissed the Oilers off" thing. I get why Eakins ran with it in the press conference, why the hell wouldn't you. But it's like no one even watched the first 30 minutes of the game (and I mean more the fans I know were watching then turn around and heckle Eller on social media, as opposed to the media whose job it is to stir shit), when the Oilers looked... a whole lot like a junior team and were badly outplayed. Was really a game of two distinct halves. So unless the Oilers didn't find out about the quote until the first intermission, then waited like 8 minutes to do anything about it, I'm not sure where people are going with this.

 

This is one of those Phil Rippa "sometimes I hate the fans of teams I love" things.

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Game last night was a lot of fun until Canucks took the lead and went into shutdown mode to protect the lead, which made the 3rd period unwatchable. When the Isles scored the tying goal I completely flipped out in the way a soccer fan seeing his team score a late equalizer against a team playing to protect a lead would. Even though Isles lost in OT, I was just glad we didn't have to witness the Gary Bettman Skills Competition. Understand that teams play to win but as a fan looking for entertainment value, teams locking up fills me with hate, especially when a game had been entertaining until that point.

 

Also, the 30 for 30 doc on John Spano debuted last night on ESPN and will be replayed tonight on ESPN2 at 9:30 eastern. I heard nothing but raves about it, and if you want to see why the Islanders fan base collapsed this will give you an answer as to why.

 

And finally, can anyone explain why the Sabres are on NBCSN/NHLN so often? everyone knew we would be awful so why did the schedule us so frequently for national TV? Worst thing about it is no Rick Jeannerett.

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I can't believe how many people are actually buying this "Lars Eller pissed the Oilers off" thing. I get why Eakins ran with it in the press conference, why the hell wouldn't you. But it's like no one even watched the first 30 minutes of the game (and I mean more the fans I know were watching then turn around and heckle Eller on social media, as opposed to the media whose job it is to stir shit), when the Oilers looked... a whole lot like a junior team and were badly outplayed. Was really a game of two distinct halves. So unless the Oilers didn't find out about the quote until the first intermission, then waited like 8 minutes to do anything about it, I'm not sure where people are going with this.

 

This is one of those Phil Rippa "sometimes I hate the fans of teams I love" things.

 

Yeah this is one of those things that still mystifies me about fans and media.  They'll take an obvious coaching tactic seriously.  You know, like when a coach gives a reason why someone's ice time got caught that is obviously bullshit but meant as a way to hopefully lessen the damage against the player.  People will run with it like the coach was being truthful.

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