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2018 Summer Blockbuster Movie Pool


S.K.o.S.

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Stats post, repeating the explanation from last year:

I've always thought that you need to do two things in order to win this contest: 1) Rank something differently than everyone else, and 2) Be right about it.  And obviously #2 is a lot more difficult than #1.

I took a look at who ranked something different than everyone else, i.e. people who ranked a movie higher or lower on a particular list than any other person.  The list in the spoiler is sorted by the number of movies that each person has ranked higher or lower than anyone else.  It's a good snapshot of at least some of the things that your success is hinging on.

For example, next to CSC's name it has "Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom BO 6 ↓", which means he has Jurassic World at 6th on his Box Office list, and the ↓ means he has it lower than anyone else.  Hopefully it's not too difficult to read.

If something's underlined, it means that the person went waaay out on a limb, because they have it at least 3 spots higher/lower than anyone else.

Take into account that particular rankings might not be as crazy as they seem, because people can leave different movies off their lists.  i.e. I might have a particular movie at 3rd on my box office list and you might have that same movie at 8th, and depending on what movies we chose to omit from our lists, it's possible that we could both have placed that movie exactly right.

 

ZERO

DreamBroken
Elsalvajeloco
EVA
ivpvideos
J.T.
The Erotic Terrorist
The Z

ONE

CSC (Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom BO 6 ↓)
gatling (Skyscraper RT 9 ↑)
Hail Sabin (Superfly RT 8 ↑)
Jesse Ewiak (Christopher Robin BO 15 ↓)
Rippa (Ocean's 8 RT 2 ↑)
The Natural (Deadpool 2 BO 8 ↓)
West Newbury Bad Boy (The First Purge BO 15 ↓)

TWO

Ace (Life of the Party BO 8 ↑, Overboard BO 11 ↑)
blitzkrieg (Mission: Impossible Fallout BO 3 ↑, Sicario: Day of the Soldado RT 15 ↓)
Control (Deadpool 2 RT 1 ↑, The Incredibles 2 RT 3 ↓)
Paco (Deadpool 2 BO 2 ↑, The Happytime Murders RT 3 ↑)
Super Ape (The First Purge RT 14 ↓, The Happytime Murders RT 15 ↓)

THREE

hobo joe (Action Point BO 11 ↓, Life of the Party BO 14 ↓, Mission: Impossible Fallout RT 1 ↑)
King Leonidas of Sparta (Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again BO 2 ↑, The First Purge BO 7 ↑, The Equalizer 2 RT 6 ↑)
Kuetsar (Ant-Man and the Wasp BO 14 ↓, Christopher Robin RT 1 ↑, The First Purge RT 5 ↑)
S.K.o.S. (Skyscraper BO 6 ↑, Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again BO 14 ↓, Ant-Man and the Wasp RT 11 ↓)
The Unholy Dragon (The Happytime Murders BO 7 ↑, Solo: A Star Wars Story RT 12 ↓, Christopher Robin RT 10 ↓)

FOUR

SorceressKnight (Action Point BO 9 ↑, Solo: A Star Wars Story RT 3 ↑, Jurassic World RT 6 ↑, Mission: Impossible Fallout RT 11 ↓)

SIX

Niners Fan in CT (Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom BO 1 ↑, Christopher Robin BO 7 ↑, Life of the Party RT 3 ↑, Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again RT 6 ↑, Deadpool 2 RT 9 ↓, Jurassic World RT 14 ↓)

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Oh yeah - that posts reminds me that I am gambling on the "movie with female lead gets over-inflated RT score" theory that I used for Wonder Woman last year

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1 hour ago, S.K.o.S. said:

1) Rank something differently than everyone else, and 2) Be right about it.  And obviously #2 is a lot more difficult than #1.

 

This just made me ashamed all over again about putting All Eyez on Me at something like #2 on my RT list last year. 

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30 minutes ago, CSC said:

This just made me ashamed all over again about putting All Eyez on Me at something like #2 on my RT list last year. 

At least you weren't alone.  It seems incredible now, but the majority of people who had All Eyez on Me on their RT list last year put it at either 1st or 2nd.  (We had 26 entrants, only 13 of those put All Eyez on their RT list, and 3 of them put it at 1st and 5 of them put it at 2nd.)  Everyone remembered 2015 and Straight Outta Compton a little too well.

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2 hours ago, S.K.o.S. said:

I've always thought that you need to do two things in order to win this contest: 1) Rank something differently than everyone else, and 2) Be right about it.  And obviously #2 is a lot more difficult than #1.

Yeah, when I was thinking of entering I was going to put Avengers: Infinity War in a middling position, figuring if it did wind up underperforming I'd have a leg up on everybody. That would have gone poorly.

(If you're wondering, I decided not to enter when I realized I hadn't even heard of more than half the movies on the list.)

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Another stats post.  This one is about where we ranked the movies.  Rather than give the whole 20-movie list multiple times, I'm only posting the top and bottom 3 from each list.

 

AVERAGE BOX OFFICE RANK
1. Avengers: Infinity War (1.00)
2. The Incredibles 2 (3.04)
3. Solo: A Star Wars Story/Jurassic World (tied at 3.35)
...
18. The Happytime Murders (13.89)
19. Overboard (13.93)
20. Superfly (14.50)

AVERAGE ROTTEN TOMATOES RANK
1. The Incredibles 2 (1.23)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (3.08)
3. Christopher Robin (4.19)
...
18. Action Point (12.53)
19. The Meg (13.44)
20. Overboard (13.57)

VARIANCE OF BOX OFFICE RANK
(A low variance means that people generally agreed on where the movie should be ranked; a high variance means that people disagreed)
1. Avengers: Infinity War (0.00)
2. Superfly (0.57)
3. The Incredibles 2 (0.78)
...
18. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (1.77)
19. Action Point (1.82)
20. Christopher Robin (1.97)

VARIANCE OF ROTTEN TOMATOES RANK
1. The Incredibles 2 (0.39)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (1.02)
3. Overboard (1.46)
...
18. Life of the Party (3.14)
19. Sicario: Day of the Soldado (3.27)
20. The Happytime Murders (4.67)

MOVIES OMITTED FROM THE MOST LISTS
1. The Happytime Murders (36)
2. Superfly (34)
3. Action Point (26)
...
16. Ant-Man and the Wasp/Deadpool 2/Avengers: Infinity War (tied at 2)
19. Ocean's 8 (1)
20. The Incredibles 2 (0)

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Seeing Action Point as one of my big predictions just reminded me I probably am going to get glommed by putting that at 9 and Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again at 10.

I knew from the fact it's a sequel to a musical based movie "there is no possible way that can be any good"...and then the news ABBA is making new music leaks the "Aww crap, they're absolutely going to debut one of their new songs in that movie and people will flock to the cinema just to hear it..." makes me just know "yeah, that's going to kill me this year."

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17 hours ago, The Unholy Dragon said:

Not gonna lie, the stats posts are among my favourite reasons to play into this. Love them. Thanks for putting the work into them @S.K.o.S.

I am also a sucker for SKOS's analytics.

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14 hours ago, SorceressKnight said:

Seeing Action Point as one of my big predictions just reminded me I probably am going to get glommed by putting that at 9 and Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again at 10.

I knew from the fact it's a sequel to a musical based movie "there is no possible way that can be any good"...and then the news ABBA is making new music leaks the "Aww crap, they're absolutely going to debut one of their new songs in that movie and people will flock to the cinema just to hear it..." makes me just know "yeah, that's going to kill me this year."

I'd heard the news about ABBA but hadn't made the connection with Mamma Mia.  Even so, I can't see people paying for a movie just to hear a four-minute song (or even several four-minute songs) for the first time.

I've been wrong many times before, though!

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6 hours ago, S.K.o.S. said:

I'd heard the news about ABBA but hadn't made the connection with Mamma Mia.  Even so, I can't see people paying for a movie just to hear a four-minute song (or even several four-minute songs) for the first time.

I've been wrong many times before, though!

A Wrinkle in Time, a film specifically targeting little girls, had the twist of "Guess what? Sade is making new music!"

Personally, based on the business of the first film, I think Mamma Mia 2 is insulated better than half money grab/half confusing vanity project like A Wrinkle in Time and doesn't need that hook.

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21 minutes ago, Elsalvajeloco said:

A Wrinkle in Time, a film specifically targeting little girls, had the twist of "Guess what? Sade is making new music!"

Personally, based on the business of the first film, I think Mamma Mia 2 is insulated better than half money grab/half confusing vanity project like A Wrinkle in Time and doesn't need that hook.

The first film did do big business, but that was 10 years ago, for one, and for another, when you're making a musical where the hook is "all the songs are these classic songs", even ignoring how Rock of Ages and Jersey Boys didn't set the box office aflame later, you have the problem of "how the hell are you going to make a second movie out of that, when you basically already used every ABBA hit you could in the first movie" (and this was exactly my reason for why I picked it dead last in RT.) 

If they leak that twist out there, though- if ABBA fans are crazy enough to flock the theaters for TWO movies like this, that would be a game changer to make it bigger.)

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1 minute ago, SorceressKnight said:

The first film did do big business, but that was 10 years ago, for one, and for another, when you're making a musical where the hook is "all the songs are these classic songs", even ignoring how Rock of Ages and Jersey Boys didn't set the box office aflame later, you have the problem of "how the hell are you going to make a second movie out of that, when you basically already used every ABBA hit you could in the first movie" (and this was exactly my reason for why I picked it dead last in RT.) 

If they leak that twist out there, though- if ABBA fans are crazy enough to flock the theaters for TWO movies like this, that would be a game changer to make it bigger.)

For me, I would think it would be a much tougher sell if it was the now normal sequel turnaround of two or three years. It is the middle of summer when people are going to be tired of loud shit exploding. It is the perfect antidote for that.

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UPDATE 2 OF 20 - through May 10

Standings

1 [ 2] The Unholy Dragon - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak 0.218)
2 [ 3] Rippa - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak 0.235)
3 [ 4] West Newbury Bad Boy - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak 0.245)
4 [ 21] EVA - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak 0.282)
5 [ 1] Super Ape - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak 0.383)
6 [ 5] gatling - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak 0.455)
7 [ 6] S.K.o.S. - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak 0.481)
8 [ 15] ivpvideos - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak 0.642)
9 [ 7] SorceressKnight - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak 1.469)
10 [ 8] The Natural - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak n/a)
11 [ 9] Paco - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak n/a)
12 [ 10] The Z - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak n/a)
13 [ 11] Ace - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak n/a)
14 [ 12] hobo joe - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak n/a)
15 [ 13] King Leonidas of Sparta - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak n/a)
16 [ 14] J.T. - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak n/a)
17 [ 16] DreamBroken - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak n/a)
18 [ 17] Control - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak n/a)
19 [ 18] The Erotic Terrorist - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak n/a)
20 [ 19] Hail Sabin - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak n/a)
21 [ 20] Kuetsar - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak n/a)
22 [- 22] CSC - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak n/a)
23 [- 23] blitzkrieg - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak n/a)
24 [- 24] Elsalvajeloco - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak n/a)
25 [- 25] Jesse Ewiak - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak n/a)
26 [NEW] Niners Fan in CT - 0 points (0/0, tiebreak n/a)

Box office

1 [- 1] Avengers: Infinity War - $486,012,103 (14 days)
2 [NEW] Overboard - $19,493,977 (7 days)
 

Rotten Tomatoes

1 [- 1] Avengers: Infinity War - 265/316 = 84% (14 days)
2 [NEW] Overboard - 16/53 = 30% (7 days)

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1 hour ago, The Natural said:

DP2 stands on 85% right now. Pleasantly surprised thinking it would have difficulty following the original how that stood out and funny sequels are hard to come by.

Already dropped to 82% in the hour since you posted (it has 73 reviews right now). The split on reviews is 60 fresh to 13 not.

For the moment, I just need it to stay below Infinity War

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