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Brian Fowler

2018 Box Office

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So, Jumanji Welcome 2 the Jungle (That should've been the name dammit) is the first movie to ever open wide, not be in first place for the first two weeks it's out and then win weeks three four and five. It is now the highest grossing domestic release from Sony not featuring Spider-Man (and it's ahead of two of those movies) and it's closing in on Furious 7 to be Rock's highest grossing domestic release ever.

I think it's getting undersold in the discussion about Last Jedi not doing nearly as well as some people expected.

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I think there's an argument to be made that even though Star Wars still has an enormous audience willing to buy tickets, it's not a traditional four quadrant family franchise anymore. 

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That might be a stretch. Even the "disappointing"  TLJ is top ten all-time both domestic and worldwide, and top fifty adjusted for inflation.

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The fretting over TLJ's box office is the most overblown stuff.  I'm not certain how a movie that's going to finish Top 5 all-time domestic and Top 10 worldwide could ever be considered a disappointment, except by the most unreasonable expectations.  I doubt even the Mouse thought it was going to come close to $900 million again.

TFA was the first Star Wars movie in 10 years and the first (proper) continuation of the main storyline in 30 years.  Of course the anticipation was going to send the box office over the moon.  Conversely, TLJ is the 3rd Star Wars movie in three years.  The fervor was never going to be the same.

Ultimately, it's not performing any differently than the 2nd movie in these trilogies always do.  The first one is always enormous, the second one takes a dip, and the third one recovers but still doesn't come close to matching the first.  That's how it's going to go.

JUMANJI's performance really is incredible, though.  Rock is just draggin his nuts all over Vin's head with this one.

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I think a lot of people are just burned out that essentially we've had literally three solid years of not being able to turn on a TV, walk into a department store, or even shop for groceries, without being hit with a Star Wars commercial. Don't get me wrong it's a great franchise for what it is, but at some point you are going to want to step back a little.

This is still obviously going to be a small minority, but enough to move the needle ever so slightly south. Star Wars is pretty well solidified as that thing which holds the place of "guys, I am such a giant nerd that I like the single most financially successful science fiction series in the history of cinema".

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11 minutes ago, Death From Above said:

I think a lot of people are just burned out that essentially we've had literally three solid years of not being able to turn on a TV, walk into a department store, or even shop for groceries, without being hit with a Star Wars commercial. Don't get me wrong it's a great franchise for what it is, but at some point you are going to want to step back a little.

This is still obviously going to be a small minority, but enough to move the needle ever so slightly south. Star Wars is pretty well solidified as that thing which holds the place of "guys, I am such a giant nerd that I like the single most financially successful science fiction series in the history of cinema".

Imagine how much it sucks to be on Team Classic Trek and suffer thru all this Star Wars overkill, now fueled by the cultural imperialism machine of The Mouse. 

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In fairness, a franchise where "balance" can only be restored to the Force by killing everyone and everything that disagrees with your religious ideology is a pretty fine summary of the world we've built for ourselves, so maybe Lucas was right after all.

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Speaking on disappointments that came out on Dec 15

Ferdinand ended up being a bomb. (It is survivable because of its international box office and most likely will be able to also recoup some money thanks to DVD)

It's made less than $80 million domestically. It's budget was reportedly $111 million but clearly they thought it would do better

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The Christmas schedule has become so over-saturated now. It will swing around in a few years. It's kind of like the "second summer blockbuster" window but so much more compressed. There's a lot of risk there.

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5 minutes ago, RIPPA said:

Speaking on disappointments that came out on Dec 15

Ferdinand ended up being a bomb. (It is survivable because of its international box office and most likely will be able to also recoup some money thanks to DVD)

It's made less than $80 million domestically. It's budget was reportedly $111 million but clearly they thought it would do better

 

1 minute ago, Death From Above said:

The Christmas schedule has become so over-saturated now. It will swing around in a few years. It's kind of like the "second summer blockbuster" window but so much more compressed. There's a lot of risk there.

Fox had some limited success counter programming TFA with a Chipmunks movie, so they tried again with another family film. It... Didn't go well.

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This Avengers: Infinity War film is going to make money, more if it's The Avengers/Avengers Assemble  (UK title) level. I called Avengers: Age of Ultron not doing as well as the first film.

Performances of Black Panther, Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story I'll also have eyes on.

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On 1/21/2018 at 4:33 PM, RIPPA said:

Speaking on disappointments that came out on Dec 15

Ferdinand ended up being a bomb. (It is survivable because of its international box office and most likely will be able to also recoup some money thanks to DVD)

It's made less than $80 million domestically. It's budget was reportedly $111 million but clearly they thought it would do better

Well if you had kids and taking them to one movie, it was going to be Star wars, or Jumamji or coco depending on their age level or two it was going to be out of that group two. AIn't nobody who can afford three(or two really)

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I took my 3 year old to see Coco and the Ferdinand trailer was before it. He loved the trailer - butt and fart humor is right up his alley - and kept asking to go see the "pig's butt movie" and still brings it up from time to time. I never took him, of course, but that movie did certainly play to a certain audience. And I'm sure I'll end up downloading it when it's available.

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I think the most "disappointing"  thing about The Last Jedi's box office run is that it dropped so steep in overseas markets where they hoped to expand.  With Han Solo having a lot of behind the scenes issues,  we could be looking at the first signs of wear and tear on the Star Wars franchise.   I do not think it's a good idea for Disney to do a Star Wars film every year.  This isn't the MCU.  It needs to breathe. 

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Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is now Sony Pictures' third highest grossing worldwide movie of all time as it passed Spectre and Spiderman:Homecoming this weekend.

It has made almost $882 million

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Black Panther made ALL the fucking money.

It was doing great Friday-Saturday, but holy fuck it was went new level on Sunday. Disney revised the Sunday estimate up by $9 million. The estimate puts it just $500k behind The Force Awakens for best Sunday ever.

$201 3-day and $235 for the 4-day holiday weekend.  The big question now is how strong of legs it'll have. 

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I know it was a holiday, but I was looking at going today and most of the screens at the local theaters were 90%+ sold out. 

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My favorite new goofy thing 

I scrolled all the way to the bottom of the Box Office Mojo charts.

Some movie called Thelma has been showing on one screen in the month of February.

It did $61 this past weekend. There are a couple of days were you can see only one person bought a ticket.

I don't know why I am fascinated by this

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On 2/19/2018 at 7:32 PM, Brian Fowler said:

Black Panther made ALL the fucking money.

108,000,422 for the second best second weekend ever. ALL the fucking money.

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That Thelma movie is a Norwegian LGBTQ psychokinetic horror fantasy (you know, that old chestnut.) I was disappointed to find out it wasn't the beginning of a rebooted Thelma and Louise universe franchise. 

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Another in the bewildering Jumanji staying power column

In its 10th week - it is still being shown on over 2500 screens

  • Greatest Showman (10 weeks) - 1601
  • The Post (10 weeks) - 795
  • Last Jedi (11 weeks) - 292
  • Coco (14 weeks) -266
  • Pitch Perfect 3 (10 weeks) - 135

Basically the only thing closest to it is Greatest Showman and even that isn't close

Now some of them I understand (like Coco is out on DVD this week)

And on that note - the Jumanji release date is March 20

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On 2/20/2018 at 9:14 AM, RIPPA said:

My favorite new goofy thing 

I scrolled all the way to the bottom of the Box Office Mojo charts.

Some movie called Thelma has been showing on one screen in the month of February.

It did $61 this past weekend. There are a couple of days were you can see only one person bought a ticket.

I don't know why I am fascinated by this

I wonder what are the odds that person was expecting to see SELMA?

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And the actuals adjust it up another three and a half for the weekend.

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Black Panther numbers update.

Passed 500 million domestic, is hovering right around 900 worldwide.

$65 million weekend, which is the third best third weekend ever, best non-holiday weekend (and it's got all outside chance of actually beating Avatar for second best third weekend if the actuals adjust it up again.)

It is now 2nd all-time domestic for the MCU, both in unadjusted and inflation adjusted. Third all-time domestic for superhero movies. Tenth all-time domestic non-adjusted.  It's going to track down at least seventh place on that list.

It's a movie everyone knew was going to be huge, and yet it is still way bigger than anyone expected.

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