UFC Fight Night 114: Moreno vs. Pettis (8/5/2017) - Mexico City, Mexico (Arena Ciudad de México)

[OSJ]

So what next for Sergio? Does he need a win over one of the top four/five, or do we go straight to a shot at Mighty Mouse? If the latter, is he ready to be competitive against the best P4P fighter in the world today?  Other than making a stupid mistake in Rd 1 last night, he looked awfully solid, but Demetrious is another matter entirely. I'd hope that he has one more fight against a top four or five guy before attempting to take on Mighty Mouse. Whatta y'all think?

[Elsalvajeloco]

I would like to see Sergio have at least two more fights to evaluate his chances but flyweight is fairly thin. For what it is worth, I would give him a much better chance than what Borg has.

[OSJ]

3 hours ago, Elsalvajeloco said:

I would like to see Sergio have at least two more fights to evaluate his chances but flyweight is fairly thin. For what it is worth, I would give him a much better chance than what Borg has.

Ah, a rare disagreement between us, it's a small one, but... When you're looking at the big picture, there are two things that UFC has to try and do (both are very closely connected). The first, make fights that people want to see; as examples, an amazingly precocious young fighter against the best P4P in the world is something that people will want to see. A lumbering oaf against a totally shot Rashad Evans is not something that anyone wanted to see. Number two: manufacture marketable stars. We've discussed at length how important this is to attracting new fans and getting the casuals to plunk down PPV money . For guys like us, the sport itself is the attraction and we're going to find something to enjoy in even the worst of cards. At Casa Pelan Friday night is fight night, and pretty much nothing is going to interfere with that. Ratings would seem to indicate that there's a considerable difference between what the casual fan and hardcore fan will go out of their way to watch.

That said, every fight is a risk, unlike a Muy Thai career where it's not at all unusual to see a guy with 200 some fights to his credit by age 30,  in the UFC, Bellator, etc. you're looking at a much, much smaller sample size. Twenty fights is a seasoned veteran and the difference in casual fans' perception of a guy that's 10-2 and a guy that's 9-3 is huge, (much more than it ought to be, how a fighter won or lost still doesn't have the traction that it should with the casuals.) The point being, you have a star in the making like Sergio Pettis because of his decisive win last night; a loss would have derailed him completely and re-set the clock on his being a serious contender. At this point, you have to match him against a top five guy, but do you run the risk of a loss by having him fight two or three of the top five? That's where we disagree,  I'm thinking one fight win or lose is adequate to establish his spot, if he wins give him a championship shot, if he loses, obviously the clock re-sets; but to trot him out there two or three times is risking your star-in-the-making needlessly. The division is pretty darn thin, it's basically Mighty Mouse up here and everyone else on a lower tier.  I don't see any of the top five guys beating Sergio based on what I've been seeing, but why take the chance of tarnishing your star-in-the-making in an extra fight  or two that aren't  going to draw viewers? 

That last is indicative of the main marketing problem MMA in general and UFC in particular have. The casuals tune in for two things, and two things only: 1.) Championship bouts and 2.) Recognizable (ie: marketable) stars. Everything else is filler. Of course, the biggest problem is the nature of the sport generally equals short careers. Today's star is tomorrow's has-been, somehow Bellator has been moderately successful at dredging up the walking dead for one last run, but the key word there is "moderately". Until the point is reached with a casual fan where the switch is flipped and he/she becomes a fan of the sport rather than the two things mentioned above the matchmakers have to tread very carefully to ensure that fighters are brought along properly and potential marketable stars aren't wasted in free TV events that don't draw a dime. All in all a very long-winded way of saying that I think Pettis beats any of the current top-five contenders and beating any one of them should be all that's required for a shot at DJ. (I don't think he beats DJ, at this point I think only DJ can beat DJ, but Sergio has a lot better shot at it than anyone else in the division. )

[Elsalvajeloco]

I don't even think we necessarily disagree because Sergio is getting a shot at the title sooner than later. You only need a one or two fight win streak to accomplish that. I just believe that Sergio is basically the future of the division if he can continue to make weight.

The UFC might be waiting for DJ to just get tired of competing at 125. Who knows if they ever work that out? However, it comes down to whether the UFC wants to mortgage Pettis fighting other young fighters for the belt or just rely on DJ being a P4P fighter who wants to test himself against fighters a weight class up. I dunno if either choice ever catches fire, but you have to make a big move so that if you ever get a McGregor type fighter in that weight range, he has some names to fight.

I think someone would have beat Rousey at some point, but Holm being the only viable option at that moment kinda tanked that division. You still got a few notable fights after that, but that momentum was going to die down at some point. Most of the time, the only way the UFC can go is next person up when it comes to title fights. However, you still have explore your options.

I think the best possible outcome for flyweight is Sergio beating DJ because at least you can get your first real rivalry and allows another person to become legitimate. If it takes Pettis one or two more fights to get to that level, I'm fine with that. That's more of my point.

[OSJ]

Gotcha. I fully agree that the future of the division is looking like a rivalry between DJ and Sergio, I just don't see anyone else on the roster being a complete enough package to roll with either of them. So , yeah,  I think we're more in agreement than not; the best possible outcome for the future of the division is for Sergio to beat one of the top five guys and then take a decision from DJ. Then you've got a rivalry that sells tickets. The reason I keep banging on about just one fight before the championship shot is that it's MMA and shit happens. Sergio should never have been in the position he was in during RD 1 last night, but there you go, he made a poor judgement call and it cost him what should have been scored as a 10-8 round even though no real damage was done, it looked pretty bad. The absolute worst thing for the division would be for Sergio (or DJ) to suffer a fluke loss to one of the much lesser caliber fighters in the top five. That's the only reason I just want him to have one more fight before taking on DJ, rather than risking a fluke loss that puts the whole division back in the crapper.

[Elsalvajeloco]

Right now, I think the hierarchy at men's flyweight is

DJ

 

Benavidez

Cejudo

S. Pettis

 

Magomed Bibulatov

A bunch of on the bubble fighters who can trade spots in the lower end of the top ten to top twenty. This would include Moreno, Dustin Ortiz, Jussier Formiga, Louis Smolka, Tim Elliott, Ray Borg, Ben Nguyen and whoever else is part of that fray w/ a ton of parity.

[OSJ]

Spot on! FWIW, I think they consider Borg as belonging in that grouping too, (I don't, but then I'm not the matchmaker for UFC either.) Hell, squeeze in Pettis/Benavidez for the next PPV, it's not like Pettis needs to worry about setting up a camp, the dude lives in the gym anyway. ;-)