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2017 Summer Blockbuster Movie Pool


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4 hours ago, The Unholy Dragon said:

Baywatch only has one review so far which is weird as it lands a couple days early. It's a rotten review though so that bodes poorly.

If they have the embargo as late as possible, that suggests they expect the reviews to be very bad.

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Good (?) news: only 13 reviews in for BAYWATCH.

Bad news: it's already down at 13% on RT. 

Welp. I don't know if this will end up being the RT floor in our contest or not, but it looks like it will be pretty close to the floor... not good for me putting it 9th in my RT list. 

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I had Baywatch dead last on my RT list and somehow the RT bleeding for King Arthur has managed to stop at 27% 

I can already feel the wind beneath my wings.

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It was a pretty tight range for Baywatch on the RT lists, actually.  J.T. had it in last place as mentioned, I had it at 13th, 4 people left it off their lists, and then the remaining 19 people all had it at between 7th and 11th.

My big risk is still putting Baywatch in last place on my box office list.  The bad reviews are a good sign, but bad reviews doesn't mean the movie won't make money.  (The Transformers series is the classic example.)

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Yeah, I left Baywatch off of my BO list because I had no idea if it would draw money in spite of negative reviews or tank horribly.

I was pretty sure it was going to be crucified by critics, though.

I need The Emoji Movie to be really bad, but not totally horrible.  I will be very angry when this does not happen.

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Honestly I think the bigger issue for Baywatch Box Office is less bad reviews and more that it's sharing opening weekend with Pirates 5, a non-R rated action comedy with a proven track record and a comparably marketable star. Like the Transformers note: Just because everyone you know professes to be sick of it, doesn't mean it won't do gangbusters financially. And I can easily see it cannibalizing a lot of Baywatch's audience.

 

Also that hard R was always gonna be an obstacle. Not to being profitable but put up against other blockbusters. It's a big part of why I had Alien low too.

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Two weeks ago, Pirates 5 was tracking at between 90 to 100 million and Baywatch was at 37-40 million. That's not bad considering that the holiday box office has underperformed a lot outside of  Thanksgiving and Christmas.

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5 minutes ago, RIPPA said:

Baywatch is definitely trending in the right direction for JT

28 reviews now - 11%

The thing that freaks me out is the idea of Baywatch setting a bar too low or shitty King Arthur setting a bar too high.

I am good with The Emoji Movie being horrible but if it is abysmal or not quite as crappy as imagined, that will suck.

I am not even going to entertain the idea of The Emoji Movie:  THE SLEEPER HIT OF THE SUMMER~!

I will probably set my car on fire if that happens.

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BIG Strike 1 for me.

Dammit Baywatch.
I wasn't expecting it be good...but "14%"?!?!

Too late for Pirates and King Arthur to suck even worse but I still need Wonder Woman, Emoji, Valerian AND Transformers to be worse than 14%!
Nope...

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I thought Baywatch was on my Rotten Tomatoes list, it's not. Phew!

Baywatch 8th on my Box Office list may bite me on the ass even with the Rock's popularity. Bad WOM won't help either.

Didn't know the film's a 15 in the UK, I found out in an advert for it the other week.

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16% is the highest it has gotten yet.

Yesterday it was at 15% and then it dropped back down to 13%

I just need it to get 20% - then I have a puncher's chance of things dropping below it.

Pirates looks safely to be around 33%

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1 hour ago, RIPPA said:

I just need it to get 20% - then I have a puncher's chance of things dropping below it.

No, because I need The Emoji Movie to be below King Arthur's pitiful 27% and whatever dismal cellar that the RT rating for Baywatch settles into. 

11% to 16% would be super because that leaves a large window for awfulness for The Emoji Movie.

Naturally it will turn out to be a sleeper success and I will start snatching CAT-5 out of the KVM switch and throwing it at the wall.

1 hour ago, RIPPA said:

.Pirates looks safely to be around 33%.

That is still higher than I expected it to be.  Not sure if this will turn out to be a low ratings / respectable money deal like most Transforrmers movies or if this will be a low ratings / no money shit storm like John Carter.

It will get to the point where Marvel will be the only arm of Disney that makes live action movies.... based on the comics...

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2 hours ago, J.T. said:

No, because I need The Emoji Movie to be below King Arthur's pitiful 27% and whatever dismal cellar that the RT rating for Baywatch settles into. 

11% to 16% would be super because that leaves a large window for awfulness for The Emoji Movie.

Naturally it will turn out to be a sleeper success and I will start snatching CAT-5 out of the KVM switch and throwing it at the wall.

That is still higher than I expected it to be.  Not sure if this will turn out to be a low ratings / respectable money deal like most Transforrmers movies or if this will be a low ratings / no money shit storm like John Carter.

It will get to the point where Marvel will be the only arm of Disney that makes live action movies.... based on the comics...

I'm probably wrong, but I'm all in on Valerian being the John Carter shitstorm. . . .

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2 minutes ago, Kuetsar said:

I'm probably wrong, but I'm all in on Valerian being the John Carter shitstorm. . . .

If the new DVD added to my man cave shelf porn is Xanadu rather than Train To Busan, I will hold you responsible.

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