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MLB 2016 - JULY


Dolfan in NYC

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Yeah, that sounds like something we would do. I'm not sure often this happens.

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WASHINGTON -- The Milwaukee Brewers were charged with batting out of order in the first inning of Monday's game against the Washington Nationals.
With two outs, Ryan Braun singled off Max Scherzer, and Nationals manager Dusty Baker immediately came out to talk to plate umpire Cory Blaser.
The umpires conferred briefly and the third out was called. Jonathan Lucroy was charged with the at-bat and an out, and Braun led off the second inning.
On the lineup distributed in the press box, Braun was indeed listed third -- his regular position in the batting order -- and Lucroy was fourth. But apparently that was not the case on the card delivered to the umpires before the game.
Braun grounded out leading off the second inning.

 

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It doesn't happen too terribly frequently, the last time I remember it happening was in an LAD- SFG game in 2013, and in that instance it cost the Giants, as Posey had hit an RBI 2B batting in Sandoval's spot. 

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I assume you blame the manager in this instance or the bench coach, whomever rights up the lineup card. For all Braun knew, the lineup printed in the dugout was different than what was given to the umpire.

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The lineup the team tweeted out was different from the real lineup.

Braun and Lucroy were flipped in the final lineup.

Damn MILLENNIALS, staring at their phones and social media instead of looking at the lineup card in the clubhouse!!!!

And yeah, it does happen every so often - seems like once or twice a year, almost always in the first inning. Dusty told a great story about batting in front of Ron Cey instead of behind him, Cey getting called out because of that, and Dusty launching a homer. No idea if it's actually true or not.

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Oh it's true. It's damn true

5/4/80

Even better was Baker had hit into a fielders choice THEN the mistake was realized so then Dusty hit a 3 run HR

EDIT

Recap from Retroshett

5/4/1980 - The Dodgers were visiting Philadelphia and the top of the first inning was not Dallas Green's best day on the way to the World Series championship. Davey Lopes singled and Rudy Law reached on an infield error. After Reggie Smith popped out, Law stole second base. Steve Garvey reached on an infield single, scoring the first run of the game. Dusty Baker then hit into a force out leaving runners on first and third but had batted out of turn. Green came out and pointed out the fact that the proper batter had not hit. Thus Ron Cey was called out, the runners restored to their previous bases and Baker batted again. This time he hit a three-run homer to left. Green now was very upset saying that Baker should not have batted believing according to newspaper accounts that Baker's force out should count and Cey should be ruled out . He was ejected from the game and protested the game. The protest was denied as the rules were followed correctly. The incorrect decision was Green's when he did not take the out on Baker's first trip to the plate. The Dodgers eventually won the game 12-10.

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I'm carrying this over from June, and I hope I'm not that fucking guy who doesn't get it...but here's what I don't understand about this Exti Velocity thing.

 

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I mean, you can pay attention to whatever the hell out want to pay attention to, but it's not like "hitting the ball hard" is something we're just realizing is good.

 

That was Joe Lucia, btw.  And it makes sense that Escape Velocity, etc. is predictive but what it predicts is already apparent in other more direct forms. Like, I take this quote as meaning that it's obvious that hitting the ball hard would be predictive of success, and that's why it's useful.

But IF EV is predictive of success, then that success would already be apparent in slugging, RBI's, HR, BABIP, etc.

I don't see what new information EV provides.

So, if you are judging prospects, since EV is something that is simple in the sense that every hitter wants to hit the ball as hard as possible all the time, you expect those with high EV to be doing well...that's the value of the stat.  But if they're doing well, that already shows up in the "normal statistics", right and you could have just evaluated them that way?  Otherwise EV is NOT predictive and therefore not valuable anyway.

It seems like whenever you would check it, what it reveals would be something you would already know.  "Guy isn't hitting as well as other guy = guy isn't hitting the ball as hard as other guy." But even if that turns out to be be true all you have learned is that "guy isn't hitting the ball as hard as other guy = guy isn't hitting as well as other guy."

So it seems like all it means is that when someone clubs an upper-deck HR, now I have to listen to an announcer go..."Well let's check the EV on that to see if he hit it really hard?" and then they'll show some graphic and he'll be like "Yep.  The escape velocity confirms he hit that ball really hard. Look, everyone now we know he hit it hard for absolute certain!"

But the fact that he hit the ball hard was already confirmed by the fact that it took out some guy's beer in the nosebleed section.  Again: What new information is provided by EV? I know I'm missing it because generally I'm an idiot about anything objective and mathematical.

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Basically, it's not a "stat" the ways Slugging and what not are, in the sense they tell you what has been done. What EV, most of the time, shows, is how lucky or not a player has been. Generally, the harder you hit the ball, the better. But sometimes you hit a line drive down the RF line that a 3B makes a great reaction catch on.

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Like El Dragon mention, placement matters. You can hit the bejeezus out of the ball...right at someone. You can barely make contact...and be standing on first base. Stanton has the five hardest hit balls this year, which have resulted in three singles and two ground outs.

Theres also this thing called "launch angle", which is the arc of the ball coming off the bat. Lower launch angle generally means a ground ball, while a higher launch angle generally means a ball that hangs up in the air longer. If you're smashing the ball at a lower launch angle, it's not going to carry as much (and as a result, has a lower chance of falling into a gap or over the fence) compared to a ball hit a little less hard but with a higher launch angle.

Head hurt yet? There's such a thing as too much data. I don't think we're there yet, but the predictive value of everything we have now is still fuzzy.

The Moneyball philosophy comes into play here too - find an undervalued asset and exploit it until the rest of the league catches up. Maybe there's some sort of butter zone with launch angle or exit velocity that teams are figuring out (perhaps in combination with out private data) to figure out which players to target.

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ASG rosters:

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Starters
C: Salvador Perez, Royals
1B: Eric Hosmer, Royals
2B: Jose Altuve, Astros
3B: Manny Machado, Orioles
SS: Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox
OF: Mookie Betts, Red Sox
OF: Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox
OF: Mike Trout, Angels
DH: David Ortiz, Red Sox

Reserves
C: Stephen Vogt, Athletics
C: Matt Wieters, Orioles
1B: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2B: Robinson Cano, Mariners
3B: Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays
SS: Francisco Lindor, Indians
SS: Eduardo Nunez, Twins
OF: Carlos Beltran, Yankees
OF: Ian Desmond, Rangers
OF: Mark Trumbo, Orioles
DH: Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays

Pitchers
RHP: Dellin Betances, Yankees
RHP: Brad Brach, Orioles
LHP: Zach Britton, Orioles
RHP: Alex Colome, Rays
RHP: Wade Davis*, Royals
RHP: Marco Estrada, Blue Jays
LHP: Cole Hamels, Rangers
RHP: Will Harris, Astros
RHP: Kelvin Herrera, Royals
RHP: Craig Kimbrel, Red Sox
LHP: Andrew Miller, Yankees
RHP: Danny Salazar, Indians
LHP: Chris Sale, White Sox
RHP: Steven Wright, Red Sox

Final Vote candidates
2B: Ian Kinsler, Tigers
3B: Evan Longoria, Rays
2B: Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
OF: Michael Saunders, Blue Jays
OF: George Springer, Astros

 

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Starters
C: Buster Posey, Giants
1B: Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
2B: Ben Zobrist, Cubs
3B: Kris Bryant, Cubs
SS: Addison Russell, Cubs
OF: Yoenis Cespedes, Mets
OF: Dexter Fowler, Cubs
OF: Bryce Harper, Nationals

Reserves
C: Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers
C: Wilson Ramos, Nationals
1B: Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs
1B: Wil Myers, Padres
2B: Daniel Murphy, Nationals
3B: Nolan Arenado, Rockies
3B: Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
SS: Corey Seager, Dodgers
OF: Adam Duvall, Reds
OF: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies
OF: Odubel Herrera, Phillies
OF: Marcell Ozuna, Marlins

Pitchers
RHP: Jake Arrieta, Cubs
LHP: Madison Bumgarner, Giants
RHP: Johnny Cueto, Giants
RHP: Jeurys Familia, Mets
RHP: Jose Fernandez, Marlins
RHP: Kenley Jansen, Dodgers
LHP: Clayton Kershaw*, Dodgers
LHP: Jon Lester, Cubs
RHP: Mark Melancon, Pirates
RHP: A.J. Ramos, Marlins
RHP: Fernando Rodney, Marlins
RHP: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
RHP: Noah Syndergaard, Mets
RHP: Julio Teheran, Braves

Final Vote candidates
1B: Brandon Belt, Giants
OF: Ryan Braun, Brewers
3B: Jake Lamb, D-backs
OF: Starling Marte, Pirates
SS: Trevor Story, Rockies

* Inactive

 

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IMO, biggest snuts.

AL: Adam Eaten and Kyle Seager seem like the obvious position player ones. Both are having very strong years, and aren't getting enough credit. However, pitching wise, Quintana seems glaring in a league that's pitching sucks.

NL: Brandon Crawford not making it while Addison Russel does, as a Cubs fan, feels wrong, and I think Addy turned his season around quite effectively recently. Jake Lamb having to be voted in tells you how freaking stupid the NL 3B crew is. Gregory Polanco feels like a glaring omission as well. As for pitchers, well, I have no real complaints. 

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Braun should be as his swansong to baseball relevance before he's traded to Atlanta for 9 pitchers and a ball boy.

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EV is basically worthless.  When people are crying about Ryan Howard having one of the top EV numbers yet hitting poorly and the same people claiming it is just bad luck and he will improve as the year goes on; that tells you all you need to know about how people use EV.

When people are using a bad player to defend a stat they have no idea what they are talking about.  

I would think if you use simple physics you can figure out that the if a player hits a fastball it will have a higher EV than an offspeed pitch.  Taking that one step further Ryan Howard cannot hit offspeed pitches, only fastballs hence the higher EV.

 

I have not used physics in a while but I think a person swings the bat at relatively the same speed while depending on the pitch there can be a wide variance.  Some energy would be transferred at the point of contact but a slower pitch would come off the bat at a slower speed than a faster pitch.  Maybe I am wrong.

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6 hours ago, El Dragon said:

But sometimes you hit a line drive down the RF line that a 3B makes a great reaction catch on.

I gotta say, that would be one helluva catch. 

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How hard the guy hits the ball has little to do with how good he is as stated. It's where he's hitting the thing on a spray chart and at what angle it's going. The fastest hit homerun this year was a line shot by Trout that barely cleared the fence. The slowest was a moon shot that also barely cleared the fence. 30 mph difference.

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