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S.K.o.S.

2016 Summer Blockbuster Movie Pool

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Returning for its ninth year, it's the Summer Blockbuster Movie Pool!

Below are 20 movies set to be released this summer. You need to make two lists:
 
List 1: Choose 15 of the 20 movies and rank them from highest to lowest according to the domestic box office gross you think each movie will make through its first 4 weeks (28 days) of release. Note that you're not trying to leave out the 5 movies you think will do the worst; just leave out the 5 that you feel least confident about ranking. Also, you don't need to guess how much money they'll make - just rank them. I'll be using boxofficemojo.com as the source for how much money each movie makes.
 
List 2: Choose 15 of the 20 movies (doesn't have to be the exact same 15 as your first list) and rank them from highest to lowest according to the rating you think each movie will have on rottentomatoes.com after it's been out for 4 weeks. Again, you're not necessarily trying to leave out the five worst movies.
 
Scoring: Your two lists will be compared with the actual ranks of the 15 movies, and your score will be the sum of the absolute values of the differences between the rank you gave to each movie and its correct rank. LOWEST score wins.
 
Tiebreaking: In addition to your two lists, pick any one of the twenty movies and post exactly how much money you think it'll make domestically, in dollars, in its first 28 days of release.  If two or more people end up with the same number of points, the person whose dollar figure is closer to correct (on a percentage basis) will be ranked ahead of the other.  If that still results in a tie, then the person who posted their entry earlier will be ranked ahead of the other. Also, if two or more movies end up tied in box office gross right down to the dollar (pretty much impossible, but just in case), or end up with the exact same rating on Rotten Tomatoes, the ranking of those two movies will be set to whatever is more favorable for each individual person.
 
The movies:

Captain America: Civil War (May 6)
The Angry Birds Movie (May 20)
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (May 20)
The Nice Guys (May 20)
Alice Through The Looking Glass (May 27)
X-Men: Apocalypse (May 27)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out Of The Shadows (Jun 3)
The Conjuring 2 (Jun 10)
Now You See Me 2 (Jun 10)
Warcraft (Jun 10)
Central Intelligence (Jun 17)
Finding Dory (Jun 17)
Independence Day: Resurgence (Jun 24)
The BFG (Jul 1)
The Legend of Tarzan (Jul 1)
Ghostbusters (Jul 15)
Ice Age: Collision Course (Jul 22)
Star Trek Beyond (Jul 22)
Jason Bourne (Jul 29)
Suicide Squad (Aug 5)
 
Deadline: The last day you can post your lists is June 2nd, 2016, but any movie that has already premiered must be left off your lists. So, for example, if you enter after May 5th, you can't put Civil War on either of your lists because it'll already be in theatres.
 
Editing lists: You may edit your lists after they're posted, but only up until the release of any movie that appears on at least one of your lists. Since time of entry is a tiebreaker, if you edit a list, make a new post stating that you've edited.
 
"The Adjustment Bureau" rule: Movies' release dates are not set in stone. If a movie's release date gets moved past September 30, 2016, and you have it on a list, it gets removed, and you get an additional number of points equal to your average points per movie on that list, rounded to the nearest whole number.
 
Prizes: Although I'm out of work and can't put up prizes myself, we've gotten nine prize donations, comprising six movies and three wrestling dvds, listed below.  First through third places will each get to pick two discs from that list (depending, of course, on what's left after prior picks), and fourth through sixth places will each get their choice of one disc.

  • PHOENIX - Criterion dvd from Rippa
  • DR. STRANGELOVE - Criterion blu-ray from Rippa
  • A HARD DAY - dvd from Rippa
  • JESUS CAMP - dvd from Paco
  • CLOUDS OF SILS MARIA - Criterion blu-ray from Kevin Wilson
  • AVATAR - dvd from Vincey Greene
  • BEST OF KANA (matchlist here) - blu-ray from ivpvideos 
  • BEST OF HIROSHI TANAHASHI (matchlist here) - blu-ray from ivpvideos
  • LEGACY OF HARLEY RACE (matchlist here) - blu-ray from ivpvideos

Good luck!

In so far: Paco, The Natural, The Z, Sublime, ivpvideos, EVA, DreamBroken, Death From Above, J.T., King Leonidas of Sparta, Hail Sabin, Rippa, RossWB, Lacelle, S.K.o.S., bazzil, Elsalvajeloco, Kevin Wilson, SorceressKnight, Skeeball Wizard, JRGoldman, Control

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SBMP Hall of Fame:

Spoiler

 

In 2008, 9 people entered, and the top 3 got prizes:

1. Evil Ash
2. Nathan Davis
3. Brocklock

In 2009, 28 people entered, and the top 6 got prizes:

1. SoopArr AE
2. The Erotic Terrorist
3. RossWB
4. Genesis
5. Nathan Davis
6. MushroomJones

In 2010, 39 people entered, and the top 6 got prizes:

1. -MJ-
2. RossWB
3. Pavel6969
4. Brocklock
5. SoopArr AE
6. shoogbear63 

In 2011, 42 people entered, and the top 6 got prizes:

1. Hobo Joe
2. scraylo187
3. -MJ-
4. Hail Sabin
5. shoogbear63
6. The Erotic Terrorist 

In 2012, 39 people entered, and the top 6 got prizes:

1. blitzkrieg
2. IVPvideos
3. jesseewiak
4. DreamBroken
5. Patty1369
6. TrevL

In 2013, 32 people entered, and the top 6 got prizes:

1. The Damn Yeti
2. RossWB
3. Genesis
4. Death From Above
5. The Erotic Terrorist
6. -MJ-

In 2014, 36 people entered, and the top 6 got prizes:

1. -MJ-
2. Control
3. The Erotic Terrorist
4. Chaos
5. RossWB
6. The Natural

In 2015, 20 people entered, and the top 6 got prizes:

1. -MJ-
2. DreamBroken
3. Rippa
4. Hobo Joe
5. RossWB
6. Paco

 

 

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Will anyone end MJ's reign of terror?

Will I somehow get boned by Ice Cube again?

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9 minutes ago, S.K.o.S. said:

Prizes: Sadly I've been out of work for the past few months and can't guarantee there'll be any prizes this year.  We'll see where things are in September.  When a man can't put up DVDs for the Summer Blockbuster Pool, that's hard times daddy!

I can help in this department but we can talk in PM if you want

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I think I have a DVD copy of the Abram's Star Trek movie at my crib that is still in the wrapper. 

If no one will be embarrassed to own it, I will donate it to the prize pile..

 

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I can't believe it's this time of the year again already. Man, this looks super hard to predict.

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Box Office:

1. Captain America: Civil War

2. Finding Dory

3. X-Men: Apocalypse

4. Star Trek Beyond

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

6. Ghostbusters

7. Alice Through The Looking Glass

8. Jason Bourne

9. The Conjuring 2

10. Ice Age: Collision Course

11. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

12. The Legend of Tarzan

13. Now You See Me 2

14. Central Intelligence

15. The Nice Guys

-----

RT:

1. Captain America: Civil War

2. The Nice Guys

3. Finding Dory

4. X-Men: Apocalypse

5. Star Trek Beyond

6. The BFG

7. Ghostbusters

8. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

9. Alice Through The Looking Glass

10. The Angry Birds Movie

11. Independence Day: Resurgence

12. Now You See Me 2

13. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

14. Ice Age: Collision Course

15. Central Intelligence

-----

Tie Breaker: Civil War ($524 Million)

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Box Office:

1. Captain America: Civil War (May 6)

2. Finding Dory (Jun 17)

3. X-Men: Apocalypse (May 27)

4. Star Trek Beyond (Jul 22)

5. Jason Bourne (Jul 29)

6. The BFG (Jul 1)

7. Suicide Squad (Aug 5)

8. Ghostbusters (Jul 15)

9. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out Of The Shadows (Jun 3)

10. The Legend of Tarzan (Jul 1)

11. Alice Through The Looking Glass (May 27)

12. Ice Age: Collision Course (Jul 22)

13. Central Intelligence (Jun 17)

14. The Nice Guys (May 20)

15. Now You See Me 2 (Jun 10)

Rotten Tomatoes:

1. Captain America: Civil War (May 6)

2. The BFG (Jul 1)

3. X-Men: Apocalypse (May 27)

4. Finding Dory (Jun 17)

5. Jason Bourne (Jul 29)

6. Suicide Squad (Aug 5)

7. Star Trek Beyond (Jul 22)

8. Ghostbusters (Jul 15)

9. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (May 20)

10. The Angry Birds Movie (May 20)

11. Alice Through The Looking Glass (May 27)

12. Central Intelligence (Jun 17)

13. Now You See Me 2 (Jun 10)

14. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out Of The Shadows (Jun 3)

15. Ice Age: Collision Course (Jul 22)

Tie Breaker (bloody suck at these):

X-Men: Apocalypse $220 million.

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I’ve taken part since this started in 2008 getting a prize once and just missing out two or three times. When this time comes up again, I don’t know whether to research, adlib or a combination of the two. That's what I've done this time around. As ever thanks to S.Ko.S. for running this!

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OK, first draft. I might have to change this later.

Box Office:

1. Captain America: Civil War (May 6)

2. Alice Through The Looking Glass (May 27)

3. Independence Day: Resurgence (Jun 24)

4. Finding Dory (Jun 17)

5. X-Men: Apocalypse (May 27)

6. Star Trek Beyond (Jul 22)

7. Warcraft (Jun 10)

8. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out Of The Shadows (Jun 3)

9. Ice Age: Collision Course (Jul 22)

10. The BFG (Jul 1)

11. The Legend of Tarzan (Jul 1)

12. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (May 20)

13. The Conjuring 2 (Jun 10)

14. Now You See Me 2 (Jun 10)

15. Central Intelligence (Jun 17)

 

Rotten Tomatoes:

1. Captain America: Civil War (May 6)

2. X-Men: Apocalypse (May 27)

3. Finding Dory (Jun 17)

4. Jason Bourne (Jul 29)

5. The Nice Guys (May 20)

6. The Conjuring 2 (Jun 10)

7. The Legend of Tarzan (Jul 1)

8. Suicide Squad (Aug 5)

9. Warcraft (Jun 10)

10. Star Trek Beyond (Jul 22)

11. Independence Day: Resurgence (Jun 24)

12. Now You See Me 2 (Jun 10)

13. Ice Age: Collision Course (Jul 22)

14. The Angry Birds Movie (May 20)

15. Central Intelligence (Jun 17)

 

Tie Breaker:

 Ice Age: Collision Course - $165.000.000

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Box Office:

1.Finding Dory

2.Captain America: Civil War

3.The BFG

4.X-Men: Apocalypse

5.Independence Day: Resurgence

6. Star Trek Beyond

7.Alice Through The Looking Glass

8.Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out Of The Shadows

9.Ghostbusters

10.Jason Bourne

11.Suicide Squad

12.Warcraft

13.The Conjuring 2

14.The Angry Birds Movie

15.Now You See Me 2

 

Rotten Tomatoes

1.Captain America: Civil War

2.Finding Dory

3.The BFG

4.Ghostbusters

5.X-Men: Apocalypse

6.The Nice Guys

7.Jason Bourne

8.Star Trek Beyond

9.Independence Day: Resurgence

10.Alice Through The Looking Glass

11.Ice Age: Collision Course

12.The Legend of Tarzan

13.Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

14.Warcraft

15.The Angry Birds Movie

 

Tiebreaker: Ghostbusters - $186,000,000

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So many movies I'm terrified to rank

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Yeah, I don't know if it's harder than it used to be, or I'm just more out of touch.  Remember when it was super easy to pick the top three for each list?  "Oh, a Pixar movie, that goes at #1 on the Rotten Tomatoes list."

It seems like there's a lot of potential $100m+ movies opening head-to-head this year too.  Usually they do a better job of getting out of each others' way.

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Too me the weirdest part is that there really doesn't seem to be the obvious "this movie will be at 20% on the RT list"

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Rotten Tomatoes will be the death of me again this year.

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This is why I wanted that Bill & Ted Need Dates movie in this!

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23 minutes ago, RIPPA said:

Too me the weirdest part is that there really doesn't seem to be the obvious "this movie will be at 20% on the RT list"

 

1 minute ago, Niners Fan in CT said:

I think Warcraft is a good possibility to be both a box office flop and critical failure.

While making the list I actually thought box office is much harder this year than Rotten Tomatoes, but I didn't even take movies opening on the same weekend into the equation.

Have you seen the trailer for the Angry Birds movie? Ghostbusters looks godawful as well, but I don't know, if critics will see it the same way.

Warcraft looked like a stinker to me as well, but it's directed by Duncan Jones, who previously directed Moon and Source Code, two great movies, so i don't know.

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3 minutes ago, The Z said:

Warcraft looked like a stinker to me as well, but it's directed by Duncan Jones, who previously directed Moon and Source Code, two great movies, so i don't know.

Counterpoint: Joe Wright

Sometimes, it's just better to go with your gut.

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Everyone is fucked if Cap doesnt do well.

Which i guess means no one would be fucked.

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I'll say right now I don't think Cap should be in this. It's already at 98% after 42 reviews and the tracking data for the box office is out. It's a gimme. Ghostbusters looks like the type of movie that some critics will love and I'll hate. My reference point is The Force Awakens. I didn't hate it at all but it's like 93% or something on RT. That's extremely high for something that was basically a beat by beat remake and that's exactly what Ghostbusters looks to be. A remake.

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Box office Ranking

  • Captain America: Civil War (May 6)
  • Finding Dory (June 17th)
  • X:Men Apocalypse
  • Suicide Squad
  • Independence Day: Resurgence
  • Ghostbusters
  • Star Trek Beyond
  • The Legend of Tarzan
  • Jason Bourne
  • Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows
  • Ice Age Collision Course
  • The Nice Guys
  • Now you See Me 2
  • The Angry Birds Movie
  • Warcraft (June 10th)

Rotten Tomatoes ranking

  • Captain America: Civil War (May 6)
  • Finding Dory
  • The Nice Guys
  • Jason Bourne
  • Suicide Squad
  • X:Men Apocalypse
  • Legend of Tarzan
  • Central Intelligence
  • Star Trek Beyond
  • Ice Age Collision Course
  • Independence Day: Resurgence
  • Angry Birds Movie
  • Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows
  • Now you see me 2
  • Warcraft (June 10th)

Tiebreaker: Jason Bourne: 94 Million

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IVP, your post needs a tiebreaker pick.  (Also sent you a PM about it in case you don't see this post.)

 

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Box Office:

1.Captain America: Civil War

 2. Finding Dory                            

3. Independence Day: Resurgence                

4. Alice Through The Looking Glass                

5. Jason Bourne                            

6. Suicide Squad                            

7. X-Men: Apocalypse                        

8. Star Trek Beyond                        

9. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows        

10. The Conjuring 2                        

11. Ghostbusters                    

12. Ice Age: Collision Course                            

13. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising                    

14. Central Intelligence                        

15. The BFG      

                             

Rotten Tomatoes:

1. Captain America: Civil War

2. Finding Dory

3. The Nice Guys

4. X-Men: Apocalypse

5. Ghostbusters

6. Jason Bourne

7. The BFG

8. Star Trek Beyond

9. Warcraft

10. The Conjuring 2

11. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

12. The Legend of Tarzan

13. Now You See Me 2

14. Suicide Squad

15. Independence Day: Resurgence

 

TIEBREAKER:  Jason Bourne - $225 million

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9 hours ago, RIPPA said:

So many movies I'm terrified to rank

 

8 hours ago, S.K.o.S. said:

Yeah, I don't know if it's harder than it used to be, or I'm just more out of touch.  Remember when it was super easy to pick the top three for each list?  "Oh, a Pixar movie, that goes at #1 on the Rotten Tomatoes list."

It seems like there's a lot of potential $100m+ movies opening head-to-head this year too.  Usually they do a better job of getting out of each others' way.

I've found this year to be harder. Once I've sent my submission, I try to fight the urge to tweak. I've picked a beautiful hill to die on in the words of Luke Harper ; ).

5 hours ago, Niners Fan in CT said:

I'll say right now I don't think Cap should be in this. It's already at 98% after 42 reviews and the tracking data for the box office is out. It's a gimme. Ghostbusters looks like the type of movie that some critics will love and I'll hate. My reference point is The Force Awakens. I didn't hate it at all but it's like 93% or something on RT. That's extremely high for something that was basically a beat by beat remake and that's exactly what Ghostbusters looks to be. A remake.

I think Captain America: Civil War should be included. This is the biggest film of the summer and the review embargo ended earlier than films tend to do.

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