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2015 NCAAF: WEEK ONE

Dolfan in NYC

By Dolfan in NYC
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cwoy2j

cwoy2j

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Former UM db, Philip Buchanon just posted this to facebook:

 

 

Next year will be an exciting year for us because we only have 2 options: either we will be ACC champions or heading in a better direction with a new head coach. Whose idea was it to let the players post those pictures? Wow.

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EVA

EVA

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IT'S HERE.

Time for some Week 1 Big Game WHO YA GOT?

Thursday

2TCU @ Minnesota: I can't really argue with where people are ranking TCU to start the season, but at the same time, I don't really see them in the playoff mix at the end of the year. They lose a lot of their difference makers from last year's defense, and their fantastic +18 turnover margin (difficult to replicate year-to-year) helped paper over the fact that Trevone Boykin played his worst football against their best competition. They are ripe for upset. And if Minnesota still had Daniel Cobb carrying the football, I might pick the upset here, but...

TCU

North Carolina vs. South Carolina: Interesting matchup of coaches who might be on their last legs, for different reasons. Both of these teams look like 7-8 wins seasons waiting to happen to me. UNC has the returning QB advantage, but SC has the best player in Pharoh Cooper. The key difference is that I think SC's terrible defense last year was an aberration (1st time since 2010 they allowed more than 20ppg), whereas with the exception of one year at Southern Miss, Larry Fedora has never had a good defense (and last year's UNC defense was spectacularly bad). I expect this to be a typical SC non-conference opener, where they look horrible but still manage to pull out an ugly win.

SOUTH CAROlNA

Michigan @ Utah: Utah is a good team, not a great team, so I don't think they'll blow Michigan's doors off like a lot of people seem to, but there is just not a lot of talent in Ann Arbor right now. Brady Hoke was absolutely awful at evaluating/recruiting/developing talent. Harbaugh has a deep hole to climb out of.

UTAH

Friday

Washington @ 23Boise State: This is mainly interesting because it's Chris Petersen vs. his old team. But he's still in the process of rebuilding Washington into Big League Boise, so I'll take Vintage Boise and it's veteran defense. Still, it wouldn't completely surprise me if this turned into a "The master didn't teach the student all his tricks" shocker.

BOISE

Saturday

Louisville vs 6Auburn: I think Auburn is highly overrated this year, mainly due to some magical thinking regarding Will Muschamp's perceived ability to turn Auburn's scrub D into a Top 30 unit overnight and the fact that their QB is like 6'5" 250 (and you can't teach that). And if this were last year, I might pick Louisville to win. But we're another year removed from the Strong Era, and the great players who made up the core of Louisville's 2012 and 2013 10+ win teams are all but gone. I don't think they have the studs on D anymore to hold Gus Malzahn's offense back (even if it's being revamped from what it was with Nick Marshall under center), and I'm not overly impressed with what they have at QB.

AUBURN

15Arizona State @Texas A&M: This is prime upset material right here. I think both of these defenses will be improved over last year, especially A&M with new, proven DC John Chavis bringing in fresh ideas. But make no mistake, this is a "get your popcorn ready" game. There will be a lot of points on the board. Ultimately, though, I think that with with the departure of Jalen Strong to the NFL, Arizona State is short-handed in terms of playmakers. DJ Foster is a great, versatile WR/RB, but he always seemed like more of a complementary player to me. Can he shoulder the load? Conversely, A&M is stacked with studs like Speedy Noil, Ricky Seals-Jones, and Josh Reynolds. Those guys can run up and down the field all day, and will. Plus, A&M has a legit playmaker on defense in DE Myles Garrett (broke Clowney's SEC record for sacks by freshmen). A&M's ability to generate a pass rush with the front four, as opposed to blitzing a ton - ASU's modus operandi - will give them an advantage in shootouts. Like this one.

TEXAS A&M

Texas @ 11Notre Dame: Well, this is a big game on the marquee only. Much like Harbaugh, Charlie Strong inherited a mess. They're a year closer to climbing out of the Mack Brown crater, but I don't like anything Texas has at the skill positions. Hard to see them doing much against ND's veteran defense. Yet I feel like this could be a classic Brian Kelly big game at ND: control the game, still only manage to win by 4-6 points somehow.

NOTRE DAME

20Wisconsin vs 3Alabama: This looks like an absurd mismatch on paper. Wisconsin's offensive strength (power running) lines up perfectly with Alabama's defensive strength (stopping the run). And Wiscy doesn't have the talent at QB or WR to really challenge Bama's revamped secondary down the field. Even with Bama's uncertainty at QB, if that defense is everything it's supposed to be, this should be a blowout. I think it is.

BAMA

Mississippi State @ Southern Miss: HAHA JUST KIDDING. Dawgs win in a Starkville stomping. (Because it's a mudhole, GET IT?) This is just a reminder that USM still has a team.

Monday

1Ohio State @ Virginia Tech: On paper, this VT team looks even better than the one that waltzed into Columbus and won last year. And now they get the Buckeyes on their home turf! But...this also isn't the same identity-less Ohio State that meandered into that trap. The fact that they're everyone's consensus pick to go undefeated and win it all almost guarantees that they will be upset at some point, but this is not that game. OSU's absurd mix of elite talent and experience wins big.

OHIO STATE

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Kuetsar

Kuetsar

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No offense to any non traditional schools, ie Boise or TCU, but I won't believe they can win a title until they do. Rank them where they deserve it, but its hard to take them too seriously. This is coming from someone from Idaho/Utah, though I went to ISU, so fuck BSU. . . 

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Tabe

Tabe

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Michigan @ Utah: Utah is a good team, not a great team, so I don't think they'll blow Michigan's doors off like a lot of people seem to, but there is just not a lot of talent in Ann Arbor right now. Brady Hoke was absolutely awful at evaluating/recruiting/developing talent. Harbaugh has a deep hole to climb out of.

UTAH

Hoke's problem wasn't really recruiting, with top 10 classes in both 2012 & 2013. The problem was that once those guys got to Ann Arbor, Hoke taught them to suck. Michigan will struggle this year but I expect them to be good next year.

That said, I think Michigan pulls off the upset.

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BillThompson

BillThompson

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No offense to any non traditional schools, ie Boise or TCU, but I won't believe they can win a title until they do. Rank them where they deserve it, but its hard to take them too seriously. This is coming from someone from Idaho/Utah, though I went to ISU, so fuck BSU. . . 

 

They will never be allowed to be in a position to win a title, no matter how many times they beat big name teams, go undefeated, etc.

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JLowe

JLowe

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IT'S HERE.

Time for some Week 1 Big Game WHO YA GOT?

 

Texas @ 11Notre Dame: Well, this is a big game on the marquee only. Much like Harbaugh, Charlie Strong inherited a mess. They're a year closer to climbing out of the Mack Brown crater, but I don't like anything Texas has at the skill positions. Hard to see them doing much against ND's veteran defense. Yet I feel like this could be a classic Brian Kelly big game at ND: control the game, still only manage to win by 4-6 points somehow.

NOTRE DAME

 

Texas's O-Line is better than last year, even though we're starting 2 true freshmen! Scary to think. RB Jonathan Gray might finally live up to his 5-star ranking (he certainly physically looks the part), and we've got 2 big, fast guys backing him up. Our QB situation is somewhat of a mess, and apparently our WRs have almost all had a serious case of the drops during the fall practices. We lost some big pieces on defense, but our young talent there might be an overall upgrade, are big and fast, and they are all apparently full of piss and vinegar. 

Like you, I think Notre Dame wins a close game.

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JLowe

JLowe

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There's still a lot of smoke and insistence that he was gonna bolt for Texas and $10mil/yr at the end of 2013 until Mack Brown and Bill Powers (UT President at the time) screwed it up. I don't know if it's true, but I'm so glad it didn't happen.

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EVA

EVA

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Dude, there has been at least one of these stories pretty much every year since he got to Alabama.

He's not going anywhere.

Not to coach football anyway. He's really enjoyed being a talking head when ESPN has given him the opportunity, and he would like to do that, at least for a little while, after he's done coaching. But he hasn't given anyone any indication that he's ready to hang it up yet.

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EVA

EVA

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There's still a lot of smoke and insistence that he was gonna bolt for Texas and $10mil/yr at the end of 2013 until Mack Brown and Bill Powers (UT President at the time) screwed it up. I don't know if it's true, but I'm so glad it didn't happen.

Yeah, winning all of those championships would've sucked. ;)
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EVA

EVA

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TIME IS RUNNING OUT.

LAST MINUTE PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS GO!

I got:

Ohio State: Obviously. Doubt they'll make it through undefeated, mainly because everybody is saying they will, but they'll be there.

Baylor: The B12 rep is a tossup between these guys and TCU for most people. TCU has their QB back, and Baylor doesn't, and that seems to be the deciding factor for most people. But the QB doesn't really matter that much in Baylor's offense, and they have a more complete team coming back than TCU. (WATCH OUT for Oklahoma as a sleeper here, though. They're always among the most talented teams in the conference, and they dumped quasi-nepotistic hire Josh Hueppel who drove the offense into the ground and are going back to more of a pure Air Raid approach, which is when they've had their most success.)

This is where it gets tough.

On paper, Alabama should be in. Forget the 1st-year QB blues. Bama won a natty with 1st-year McElroy in 2009, another natty with 1st-year McCarron in 2011, and made the playoffs with 1st-year Sims last season (and he likely would've won it all if he played with the 09 or '11 defenses).

But they also play the consensus toughest schedule in college football this season.

But who else could come out of the SEC? Georgia has a tough road to navigate, with their own noob QB. There's still no tangible evidence backing up this idea that Auburn's defense isn't going to be allowing 30 a game in November. LSU looks eerily similar to their 2011 team on paper, but can they get that oh-so-critical decent QB play out of those mopes they've got?

So I guess I'm going to go with Alabama, even though I don't feel great about it.

And the #4 spot is a total crapshoot. Unless FCS Superstar Vernon Adams is an FBS Superstar in waiting, Oregon's run on top of the Pac-12 is just about done. Helfrich has proven he's not Kelly, and he doesn't have Mariota to prop him up anymore. So the P12 is wide open.

Likewise, I think Stanford is nearing the end of the Harbaugh/Luck afterglow.

USC is the consensus pick to fill the void this year. And they have the team to do it on paper. But how much faith can you put in a dumpster fire head coach like Sarkisian to get them to the playoffs?

That leaves...UCLA? They have a ton of experience returning everywhere except QB, where they'll be starting a true freshman. I could easily see them winning the conference, but could they do it with less than 2 losses?

In the ACC, everyone wants to believe the long Jameis/FSU national nightmare is over, but the fact is, they are still by far the most talented team in the conference. The only team that looks close to them is Clemson. And they're Clemson, for god's sake! I'm not ready to put my faith in the transcendent power of Deshaun Watson just yet.

Elsewhere, I think Notre Dame has the team to muddle their way into the national title picture, as they did in 2012, but they draw a pretty tough slate out of their ACC schedule, with games against Georgia Tech and @Clemson, in addition to their usual dogfights with USC and Stanford. ND likes to talk a lot of nonsense about the strength of their schedule ever year, but this season it might be a shoot.

With so much uncertainty, is this maybe the year a mid-major sneaks in? Boise has a very Boise looking team, but would they be able to overcome their soft strength of schedule with the committee? Right now, their top 2 OOC games are against Washington, who's going to finish in the bottom half of the Pac-12, and BYU, who's going to win a ho-hum 8-games as usual. Even at 13-0, they're going to struggle in comparison to some 1-loss teams.

Here's a darkhorse for you: WESTERN KENTUCKY. They play in the C-USA, which - take it from me - is a terrible league, and look no further than last season to see how little respect Marshall got for running that league with a baby's ass schedule. BUT the advantage they have over Marshall is that they play 3 Power 5 opponents OOC. Vanderbilt will be terrible, so they won't be much help. But if Indiana has their Best Case Scenario season (8 wins), that would help their case. And they also have LSU. Assuming LSU has a good season (around 10 wins, give or take), an upset there + an undefeated season would give them some real ammunition with the committee. Especially if, say, LSU has a win over Alabama (or whoever the SEC playoff rep will be).

Out of all these teams, it really looks like Florida State has the clearest path. So I'll lay money with them.

MY TOTALLY WRONG FINAL FOUR:

1. Ohio State

2. Baylor

3. Alabama

4. Florida State

First four out: UCLA, Notre Dame, LSU, Boise State

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Hail Sabin

Hail Sabin

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I would love to pick FSU to make the playoff but I think Georgia Tech or Clemson will get them this year.

 

My Final Four 1. Ohio State easy, easy schedule plus very stacked team. 2. TCU lots of returning starters including Boykin. 3. Alabama it's the SEC and there are the safest bet even though they have lots of question marks going into the season. 4. Oregon Adams will light it up plus USC will lack of depth and the crazy coach situation I think Oregon will win that conference since I have no faith in UCLA.

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Kuetsar

Kuetsar

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Boy there are a shit ton of games today and tomorrow. . . 

For fun, since I know little about NCAA:

1. Bama

2. TOSU

3. FSU

4. BSU(Only because there won't be a compelling alternative-and they get their doors blown off in the playoff)

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