[WWE NETWORK] Technical and General Content Question/Comments

[odessasteps]

I wonder when tonight they mention the stream was fine for mania but hbo had issues streaming game of thrones.

[offspring515]

When that number came out you could hear the stiffening of hate boners all around the IWC. Some people want this thing to fail sooooo fucking badly.

[sydneybrown]

I think the idea that "Well they can't possible do better than what they have now!" is ridiculous. All they have to do is keep pushing it on Raw, promote how great the stream for Mania was and then have their next PPV be a show people want to see. 4 million + people watch Raw every week. It shouldn't be hard to convert another 400,000 of them.

 

I think the battle is much more uphill than that. In your opinion, how much of that number are the die-hards?  Because I really believe 75-80% of those 650K are them.  And if the casual fan was going to buy it for anything, it would have been for WrestleMania, not for B-shows later like Battleground or Extreme Rules.  The time to grab the casual fan just ended.

 

And I don't buy the argument that people were just waiting it out to see how the stream was considering the tons of stuff you already get for $9.99 made WM pretty much a freebie. 

 

And I say this as someone who wants the network to succeed, because as a service, I think it's far better than I could have hoped for.  But I'm not doing a tap dance over these numbers.  I think the number will grow, but I think it may be a struggle to get to 1 million by year's end. 

[Niners Fan in CT]

How do you get more people to sign up? Book matches that people want to see. They have a tremendous roster right now. I think a potential Lesnar vs. Bryan match could be a big sell, for one.

[Antacular]

 

Wow.  Those are great numbers. 

 

The total nosedive the stock is doing now says otherwise.  I think 1 million subscribers domestic now was the magic number to impress the masses.  600,000 are the wrestling nerds like us who will buy anything, and it looks like those are the only people who bought it.  I just don't see how you get an additional 300K domestic in the next 8-9 months when dangling a $9.99 WrestleMania show at them wasn't enough to do it.

 

ESPECIALLY when you're guaranteed to lose some of that 667K at the six month point.

 

 

This is 110% correct. Stock is currently down around 15%, was down over 20% earlier in the day. I don't know how anyone can put a positive spin on those numbers. The fact that it's down 15%ish shows that the recent run up was in fact largely due to WWE Network expectations, and not solely from an increase in TV fees.

 

 

I think the idea that "Well they can't possible do better than what they have now!" is ridiculous. All they have to do is keep pushing it on Raw, promote how great the stream for Mania was and then have their next PPV be a show people want to see. 4 million + people watch Raw every week. It shouldn't be hard to convert another 400,000 of them.

 

WrestleMania is the biggest selling point for the entire company, let alone the Network. You seriously expect them to increase the NET number of subscribers (since obviously the retention rate won't be 100%, that will be the next interesting number down the road) by close to 60% WITHOUT WrestleMania in the coming months on the talking point "Hey it didn't crash!" ? That is so beyond absurd.

 

Few months back I said I expected them to hit around 500k subscribers, so I was little off on that, but they were even more off the mark with the 900K number (using 900K as the average between their range of 800K - 1M to break even). The only way they hit 900K is to expand it internationally. And even then, costs will most likely increase, which means they will need more than 900K to break even.

[odessasteps]

How do you get more people to sign up? Book matches that people want to see. They have a tremendous roster right now. I think a potential Lesnar vs. Bryan match could be a big sell, for one.

If they posted mid-south tv, they would get one more subscriber at least.

[SirSmUgly]

I honestly think there are a lot of willing paying fans that just don't know what Roku or AppleTV or what have you actually is. I know many people, my mom included, that weren't big streamers simply because they weren't up on streaming devices or what kind were out there. Once my mom used my Roku and saw how easy it is to use, however, she was off and running with streaming entertainment to her television. 

 

Heck, even the younger kids I know often don't know what a Roku is oftentimes, though they are of course much more likely to have a newer game console that streams. However, I bet that there are another 600K out there that just need someone to show them what a Roku device is.

[Antacular]

However, I bet that there are another 600K out there that just need someone to show them what a Roku device is.

 

 

Very easy way to make that bet: Buy some WWE stock at it's current price/earnings ratio of over 200. Let me know how it works out for you.

[SirSmUgly]

 

However, I bet that there are another 600K out there that just need someone to show them what a Roku device is.

 

 

Very easy way to make that bet: Buy some WWE stock at it's current price/earnings ratio of over 200. Let me know how it works out for you.

 

 

Well, this is a bit reductive because stock prices don't only hinge on the WWEN, but if I had the cash, I would be fine making that particular bet. 

[Antacular]

Considering it dropped 15% on account of the subscriber number being way lower than what was expected, clearly a substantial portion of the price (or at least the price run up since it was around $15) is hinging on those numbers. It's suffice to say that at $28-30ish, which is where it was before today, the expected number of subscribers was around the 900K number. So if you're going to say that you think there's another 600K subscribers out there, who just need to "figure out how to stream stuff" (I don't buy that argument for a second BTW, any one who doesn't know how to download an app and punch in credit card info surely knows someone who can in the year 2014), your line of reasoning would price the stock within the $32-35ish range, meaning at this price, around a 50% upside. Considering the average market return over the past 200 years is 8% per annum (Compound annual growth rate, not the mean return per year), even if it takes them 2 years to get those additional 600K subscribers, you'd beat the market twice over.

 

Or you could just realize that your own opinion of the network (it's awesome, I get that) clouds the fact that if the draw of WrestleMania couldn't attract even the low range that they projected (800K), that there's really no possibility of them DOUBLING the current amount of domestic subscribers without WrestleMania to hook, like, and sinker the masses.

[goc]

You are talking about the same stock price that shot way up when rumors of a sale were going around. A sale that was NEVER EVER going to happen but yet plenty of people on Wall Street, that you think we are supposed to assume are all business experts, believed in and bought the stock thinking the company was about to get sold.

[Bustronaut]

He's just upset his parents wouldn't buy him a subscription to the network.

[SirSmUgly]

Considering it dropped 15% on account of the subscriber number being way lower than what was expected, clearly a substantial portion of the price (or at least the price run up since it was around $15) is hinging on those numbers. It's suffice to say that at $28-30ish, which is where it was before today, the expected number of subscribers was around the 900K number. So if you're going to say that you think there's another 600K subscribers out there, who just need to "figure out how to stream stuff" (I don't buy that argument for a second BTW, any one who doesn't know how to download an app and punch in credit card info surely knows someone who can in the year 2014), your line of reasoning would price the stock within the $32-35ish range, meaning at this price, around a 50% upside. Considering the average market return over the past 200 years is 8% per annum (Compound annual growth rate, not the mean return per year), even if it takes them 2 years to get those additional 600K subscribers, you'd beat the market twice over.

 

Or you could just realize that your own opinion of the network (it's awesome, I get that) clouds the fact that if the draw of WrestleMania couldn't attract even the low range that they projected (800K), that there's really no possibility of them DOUBLING the current amount of domestic subscribers without WrestleMania to hook, like, and sinker the masses.

 

If only the market worked so logically. You seem to disagree that many people really don't know how to stream the WWEN, which really is what makes up my big argument that WWEN subscription growth still has lots to do. I disagree with your disagreement. 

 

I do really love the WWEN, but I can separate that from my thoughts on its stock price, which was inflated in the first place due to the market's expectations for what WWE might be able to do with a new TV rights deal. The market was acting irrationally on the WWE just opting out to shop around a deal by pre-emptively inflating the price of the stock. Of course these hard numbers were going to lower the price. Unless WWE announced 1M+ subscribers, the market would once again overreact as it seems to ALWAYS do (except for in the case of Bear Stearns, maybe) and the price would fall rapidly over a day or two. 

[BoKnowsWrestling]

I can see more people ordering for sure. I myself was gonna wait til the next pay per view since I was going to a party where the person already had planned to order it.

[Antacular]

You are talking about the same stock price that shot way up when rumors of a sale were going around. A sale that was NEVER EVER going to happen but yet plenty of people on Wall Street, that you think we are supposed to assume are all business experts, believed in and bought the stock thinking the company was about to get sold.

 

The percentage it rose on the sell news was fractional (from $29 to $31) compared to the prospective number of Network subscribers, as demonstrated by the 15% sell off today.

 

He's just upset his parents wouldn't buy him a subscription to the network.

 

I think you need to go back and Google a few of my posts, some of them clearly went way over your head. But to be fair, Mom said it's only because they didn't wanna keep walking in on me yanking it to Zack Ryder.

 

 

 

Considering it dropped 15% on account of the subscriber number being way lower than what was expected, clearly a substantial portion of the price (or at least the price run up since it was around $15) is hinging on those numbers. It's suffice to say that at $28-30ish, which is where it was before today, the expected number of subscribers was around the 900K number. So if you're going to say that you think there's another 600K subscribers out there, who just need to "figure out how to stream stuff" (I don't buy that argument for a second BTW, any one who doesn't know how to download an app and punch in credit card info surely knows someone who can in the year 2014), your line of reasoning would price the stock within the $32-35ish range, meaning at this price, around a 50% upside. Considering the average market return over the past 200 years is 8% per annum (Compound annual growth rate, not the mean return per year), even if it takes them 2 years to get those additional 600K subscribers, you'd beat the market twice over.

 

Or you could just realize that your own opinion of the network (it's awesome, I get that) clouds the fact that if the draw of WrestleMania couldn't attract even the low range that they projected (800K), that there's really no possibility of them DOUBLING the current amount of domestic subscribers without WrestleMania to hook, like, and sinker the masses.

 

If only the market worked so logically. You seem to disagree that many people really don't know how to stream the WWEN, which really is what makes up my big argument that WWEN subscription growth still has lots to do. I disagree with your disagreement. 

 

I do really love the WWEN, but I can separate that from my thoughts on its stock price, which was inflated in the first place due to the market's expectations for what WWE might be able to do with a new TV rights deal. The market was acting irrationally on the WWE just opting out to shop around a deal by pre-emptively inflating the price of the stock. Of course these hard numbers were going to lower the price. Unless WWE announced 1M+ subscribers, the market would once again overreact as it seems to ALWAYS do (except for in the case of Bear Stearns, maybe) and the price would fall rapidly over a day or two. 

 

 

How can you say it has lots of growth to d when the biggest selling point for it, that you get the biggest show of the year for a fraction of its cost, failed to even hit the minimum target they set out for? Who are these people that don't know how to stream shit that are expected to buy the Network? A 70 year old grandma? A 5 year old child? Netflix has 33 MILLION streaming subscribers in the U.S., 10% of the entire population. 33M people can figure out how to work Netflix, but 1M don't know how to stream WWE Network? Come on.

[Bustronaut]

There are 114M households in the US, so 33M subscribers actually likely covers nearly 30% of the population.  WWE only has 4M regular viewers, and last year's buyrate for WM 29 was at 1,039,000.  Having 65% of the overall purchasers for last year's WM signed up for the Network, is an astounding number given that they launched it as an untested platform four weeks beforehand.  Now that people know it's not going to crash during a major event (unlike SOME platforms, HBOGo) there will be more subscribers, and then they need to focus on new viewers, like with Legends House, or Blackmen's Bounties, or the Warehouse Tour.  Until last Thursday they were coasting on prior content and B-Shows, now is when the REAL launch begins.

[Antacular]

So the REAL launch occurs after the main selling point has expired? Wow.

 

I'll humor you guys for a minute. Are there people that were hesitant to sign up because of possible streaming issues? Sure. Are there a QUARTER MILLION people (667 + 250 = 917, the sweet spot between required 800K - 1M they said they needed) who delayed buying because of technical hold ups, whether it be lack of familiarity with the platform or because they "don't know how to stream stuff?" Not a chance in hell.

[Niners Fan in CT]

So the REAL launch occurs after the main selling point has expired? Wow.

 

I'll humor you guys for a minute. Are there people that were hesitant to sign up because of possible streaming issues? Sure. Are there a QUARTER MILLION people (667 + 250 = 917, the sweet spot between required 800K - 1M they said they needed) who delayed buying because of technical hold ups, whether it be lack of familiarity with the platform or because they "don't know how to stream stuff?" Not a chance in hell.

 

Hi. The Network is only available in the U.S. right now. They'll get over a million subs.

[JonnyLaw]

According to mookie, the 1 million target was for domestic buys.

[Brian Fowler]

As I understood it, they need 800k by the end of the year to break even (or maybe to begin to turn a profit?) but there goal was 1 million.

[Antacular]

So the REAL launch occurs after the main selling point has expired? Wow.

I'll humor you guys for a minute. Are there people that were hesitant to sign up because of possible streaming issues? Sure. Are there a QUARTER MILLION people (667 + 250 = 917, the sweet spot between required 800K - 1M they said they needed) who delayed buying because of technical hold ups, whether it be lack of familiarity with the platform or because they "don't know how to stream stuff?" Not a chance in hell.

Hi. The Network is only available in the U.S. right now. They'll get over a million subs.

Few months back I said I expected them to hit around 500k subscribers, so I was little off on that, but they were even more off the mark with the 900K number (using 900K as the average between their range of 800K - 1M to break even). The only way they hit 900K is to expand it internationally. And even then, costs will most likely increase, which means they will need more than 900K to break even.

As I understood it, they need 800k by the end of the year to break even (or maybe to begin to turn a profit?) but there goal was 1 million.

IIRC, Vince said the break even number was between 800K - 1M, I'm guessing the ambiguity is due to variable costs associated with it (IE traffic, amount of content uploaded, etc). But again, those were just domestic numbers, nothing was said regarding international expansion beyond "Next year."

[SirSmUgly]

So yeah, we just disagree on this. You seem to think that only five-year-olds and seventy-year-olds don't know how to stream. Alright, I'll accept that. Netflix has how many streamers out of how 33M subscribers? I am pretty sure the 33M number you cite is total subscribers, not people who utilize streaming. IIRC, about 55-60% of people who use Netflix stream at all. Still an impressive number, but you got a bit inaccurate there with your numbers.

 

I don't think you're really making your case that I'm underestimating how many people aren't sure about how to stream, but honestly, I don't think that's easy to extrapolate, so it isn't meant as a knock on you. About 51% of homes watch streaming media at some point in the week. Those numbers are rising, but if roughly half your audience doesn't stream media, you're already down to about a pool of 2M weekly RAW watchers that just don't get streaming (or don't live in an area with decent enough broadband to stream effectively, which is another issue altogether). 

 

Anyway, I get where you are coming from, but I think that your supposition that people know how to stream/have easy access to quality streaming media is just a bit too optimistic. 

[Antacular]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/23/netflix-4q-2012_n_2536643.html

 

This is from a year ago, when Netflix total subscribers was at 29M, and streaming customers at 27M. So it's safe to say a year later 30M people are streaming Netflix. But (again), 1M can't figure out how to stream WWEN? That's just too implausible given the numbers.

[Big Fresh]

You guys are boring.

[BillThompson]

Simple question, does WWE own the Stampede Wrestling library?