NFL 2022-23 - WEEK 18

[BloodyChamp]

Even if the Commanders would have lost out, I think the general opinion would have been that the coach got the most out of the team that he had in the situation they were in with the higher up’s drama and their weird schedule here at the end. That’s the definition of coaching. But they have managed to return to the disarray that they were at the start of the season here with only 2 weeks left (it started last week). We’ve seen collapses but they last long enough before they end to be called a collapse because it has to crumble, fall, and hit the ground. Here in 2 weeks the Commanders went from unlikely playoff team to dumpster fire. And Ron wtf. 

Edited January 4, 2023 by BloodyChamp

[hammerva]

Somewhere Taylor Heinicke is looking at the Commanders QB situation and like "hey what the fuck did I do"  

[RIPPA]

Long story short - Ron Rivera now says that Sam Howell is the starter

[Log]

56 minutes ago, RIPPA said:

Long story short - Ron Rivera now says that Sam Howell is the starter

Update: Ron Rivera has been told that there is no one by that name on the Commanders roster.

[RIPPA]

NFL has announced that Ravens/Bengals will be played at 1 pm on Sunday

[Gonzo]

Pro Football Talk is reporting that "momentum is building" towards Bills/Bengals not being resumed and playoff seedings in the AFC being based on winning percentage after the Week 18 games.

[NoFistsJustFlips]

No mater what they decide to do, it's not going to be ideal. We'll all have to just be okay with it. So not sure how much it should be nit-picked. But that decision clinches the division for Cincinnati even if Baltimore beats them. Essentially The Ravens would lose the chance to win the division solely on the math. 11 wins out of 16 (Bengals if they lose) will be a better win percentage than 11 wins out of 17 (Ravens in they win). Now it's not very likely The Ravens can win without Lamar. So the result may not matter much. But the path they're taking is flawed if they go that route.

[Lawful Metal]

fuck yeah

[Cobra Commander]

Albert Lewis is also a finalist but even if he's in his final year of eligibility, i'm still not sure if "guy who had his best seasons on the mid-80s Kansas City Chiefs" is getting voted in through ordinary means.

His Wikipedia entry attributes the drop in his INT totals post-1986 to teams not throwing his way as often, but I wonder how much of it also involves there being fewer INTs in the entire league over time as either teams got smarter tactically or QBs lowered their INT%s, or defense was outlawed if you wanna go down that path.

In 1985, there were 602 INTs in the entire league. There would have to be 214 INTs this weekend for the 2022 NFL to match the 1985 NFL. One of the people I follow on Twitter noted how low the INT total is for the QB with the most interceptions compared to historical norms

[RIPPA]

Just for full context - here is the full list

Spoiler

The Pro Football Hall of Fame revealed the modern-era finalists for the Class of 2023 on Wednesday, highlighted by three players who made the cut in their first year of eligibility: defensive end Dwight Freeney, cornerback Darrelle Revis and left tackle Joe Thomas.

The 2023 modern-era player finalists with their positions, years and teams, as announced on NFL Network:

Jared Allen, DE – 2004-2007 Kansas City Chiefs, 2008-2013 Minnesota Vikings, 2014-2015 Chicago Bears, 2015 Carolina Panthers
Willie Anderson, OT -- 1996-2007 Cincinnati Bengals, 2008 Baltimore Ravens
Ronde Barber, DB – 1997-2012 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dwight Freeney, DE -- 2002-2012 Indianapolis Colts, 2013-14 San Diego Chargers, 2015 Arizona Cardinals, 2016 Atlanta Falcons, 2017 Detroit Lions, 2017 Seattle Seahawks
Devin Hester, PR/KR/WR -- 2006-2013 Chicago Bears, 2014-2015 Atlanta Falcons, 2016 Baltimore Ravens, 2016 Seattle Seahawks
Torry Holt, WR -- 1999-2008 St. Louis Rams, 2009 Jacksonville Jaguars
Andre Johnson, WR -- 2003-2014 Houston Texans, 2015 Indianapolis Colts, 2016 Tennessee Titans
Albert Lewis, CB -- 1983-1993 Kansas City Chiefs, 1994-1998 Los Angeles/Oakland Raiders
Darrelle Revis, CB -- 2007-2012/2015-16 New York Jets, 2013 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2014 New England Patriots, 2017 Kansas City Chiefs
Joe Thomas, LT -- 2007-2017 Cleveland Browns
Zach Thomas, LB -- 1996-2007 Miami Dolphins, 2008 Dallas Cowboys
DeMarcus Ware, LB -- 2005-2013 Dallas Cowboys, 2014-2016 Denver Broncos
Reggie Wayne, WR -- 2001-2014 Indianapolis Colts
Patrick Willis, LB -- 2007-2014 San Francisco 49ers
Darren Woodson, S -- 1992-2003 Dallas Cowboys
The modern-era player finalists are determined by a vote of the Hall's Selection Committee, a process that began with 129 nominees. That group of nominees was trimmed to 28 semifinalists in November.

In addition to the modern-era finalists will be senior finalists Chuck Howley, Joe Klecko and Ken Riley, and contributor/coach finalist Don Coryell.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2023 will be inducted during NFL Honors, which takes place at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday, Feb. 9, and airs on NBC, Peacock and NFL Network.

At least one of the senior finalists (if not all three) and Don Coryell are locks. But they don't take away slots from the other group

[RIPPA]

 

[hammerva]

I know I am extremely biased and I do think Andre Johnson should be considered for HOF but no way Andre Johnson should be considered before Hines Ward.  

[supremebve]

Ronde Barber should have been in. The only argument against him is that he was a zone corner,  like he designed the defense. Not only that,  playing zone isn't exactly easy. You have to know where everyone on the offense and defense is,  and anticipate where they are going to be to do it effectively, and he's arguably the greatest ever at it. It's probably my biggest pet peeve when it comes to sports arguments. Playing man is making sure you stay close enough to one person to stop them from making a play. Playing zone is staying close to one person,  passing him off to another and then seamlessly picking up another, then make a play. At NFL speed that is incredibly difficult. He's 3rd all time in passes defended,  and top 25 in tackles. He was a good as anyone ever,  and should have been in on the first ballot. 

[RIPPA]

 

[Gonzo]

Now there's apparently talk of adding an 8th playoff team in each conference in order to negate the advantage of a potential bye week in the AFC.

If they add an 8th team this year you can bet that will be the standard going forward.

[RIPPA]

5 minutes ago, Gonzo said:

Now there's apparently talk of adding an 8th playoff team in each conference in order to negate the advantage of a potential bye week in the AFC.

If they add an 8th team this year you can bet that will be the standard going forward.

Okay - here is the thing about this story (which is infuriating me)

It is Florio pulling it out of fucking thin air

But he doesn't say that - the tweet is "one possibility is expanding to 8 teams"

If you read the story - it is completely unsourced but now Twitter is running rampant with the playoffs being expanded and all the Washington fans wondering if they are still in the playoffs

Quote

Bills-Bengals most likely will not be played. The players don’t want to do it. And there’s no good way to fit it into the schedule.

The best bad solution in this regard would be to play the NFC wild-card round and Bills-Bengals next weekend, with the AFC wild-card round being played the next weekend. This would wipe out the week between the conference championships and the Super Bowl. There’s no appetite for that approach.

The question then becomes seeding the AFC playoffs without Bills-Bengals. Winning percentage becomes the most obvious method. But there are concerns about equity, given that the winner of the Bills-Bengals game would have been in position to be one of the top seed AFC seeds.

One possibility would be to add an eighth team to the playoff field in the AFC. This would eliminate the bye for the No. 1 seed.

To ensure competitive balance, there would have to be eight teams in the NFC, too.

The NFL Players Association would have to agree to a temporary expansion of the playoff field.

So if they are actually talking that in the NFL - then it is another example of Florio's Meltzer level of writing

[hammerva]

See Ron Rivera was right all along.  He knew that 8th seed was happening before everyone else did.   Now if this happens there will probably 2 or 3 more starting QB decisions this week but still 

[Pete]

Incredible.

[Kevin Wilson]

15 hours ago, NoFistsJustFlips said:

No mater what they decide to do, it's not going to be ideal. We'll all have to just be okay with it. So not sure how much it should be nit-picked. But that decision clinches the division for Cincinnati even if Baltimore beats them. Essentially The Ravens would lose the chance to win the division solely on the math. 11 wins out of 16 (Bengals if they lose) will be a better win percentage than 11 wins out of 17 (Ravens in they win). Now it's not very likely The Ravens can win without Lamar. So the result may not matter much. But the path they're taking is flawed if they go that route.

I think that is one reason they aren't saying anything yet and maybe legit haven't decided, they are hoping the Bengals beat the Lamar-less Ravens (which they should) and KC wins (which they should) which will make a lot of the potential complaining moot if they just say that Bills/Bengals never happened. It still isn't ideal as the top seeds would be jumbled, but I don't know if the NFL wants to bump the playoffs all back a week which is probably the only other realistic option with short notice.

[Dolfan in NYC]

16 hours ago, Gonzo said:

Pro Football Talk is reporting that "momentum is building" towards Bills/Bengals not being resumed and playoff seedings in the AFC being based on winning percentage after the Week 18 games.

AP is reporting that Bills/Bengals has officially been called off and will not be resumed. 

[Dolfan in NYC]

Apparently the cancellation costs Buffalo the #1 seed. They're still playing for #2. 

Buffalo loss means NE gets in.  Buffalo win & Miami win means Dolphins-Bills III.   Buffalo win & Miami loss means it goes to Pittsburgh, I believe.  

[Kevin Wilson]

Still waiting for an official announcement, nothing from the NFL yet. So I don't think "official" is the right word but still seems likely, maybe they are just dotting all their Is before putting it out.

Even though it may have cost the Bills the #1 seed (I think they are still #1 if KC loses and they win), I'm ok with it. They still got a mini-bye this week and it seems like a better option than pushing back everything. Unfortunate for the Ravens though.

[Dolfan in NYC]

Chicago has shelved Justin Fields for the weekend.  Nathan Peterman will start.  

In a game that's going to be a crime against humanity, Houston must beat Indy in order to lose the #1 slot. 

I'm just assuming Minnesota beats the Bears (which will make an ass out of me and me).

[NoFistsJustFlips]

Not plying the game is the right call. Despite whatever flawed math option they go with, it's just not feasible to push back any playoffs. Plus you have the can of worms that Bengals vs Bill happening next week (and nothing else happening) then punishes The Bills & Bengals. The other 12 teams will have a bye week heading into the playoffs and Bills & Bengals wouldn't. That's an unfair competitive advantage for the other teams and Buffalo & Cincy shouldn't be punished because a tragedy happened in their game.

The best idea I've heard so far is to erase the unfair / un-even math, you take a loss off of everyone else's records. The math will mostly work out. None of the other teams are going to complain that a loss is taken off of their record. This doesn't screw The Ravens out of a divisional opportunity anymore. This doesn't mess up the top seed race in The AFC too much. It's still not perfect. But it's the least unfair way to balance things I've seen pitched so far. Everything is based on a 16 game record.

The 8 teams in the playoffs thing seems wildly unfair and makes it so no team gets a bye. I don't see that being very likely.

[Kevin Wilson]

26 minutes ago, NoFistsJustFlips said:

Not plying the game is the right call. Despite whatever flawed math option they go with, it's just not feasible to push back any playoffs. Plus you have the can of worms that Bengals vs Bill happening next week (and nothing else happening) then punishes The Bills & Bengals. The other 12 teams will have a bye week heading into the playoffs and Bills & Bengals wouldn't. That's an unfair competitive advantage for the other teams and Buffalo & Cincy shouldn't be punished because a tragedy happened in their game.

The best idea I've heard so far is to erase the unfair / un-even math, you take a loss off of everyone else's records. The math will mostly work out. None of the other teams are going to complain that a loss is taken off of their record. This doesn't screw The Ravens out of a divisional opportunity anymore. This doesn't mess up the top seed race in The AFC too much. It's still not perfect. But it's the least unfair way to balance things I've seen pitched so far. Everything is based on a 16 game record.

The 8 teams in the playoffs thing seems wildly unfair and makes it so no team gets a bye. I don't see that being very likely.

I don't know the way they think but one reason they may not want to take a loss off everyone is it may... make the season look weird and less legitimate. Not that it would be necessarily, but changing team's records to take away losses they legitimately had may be looked at by some fans as erasing the result of games that already happened. While just not giving the Bills or Bengals a W/L/T for the game at least is truthful, if they just cancel it altogether. 

I am interested by some theories, which may have some grounds of truth since the NFL still hasn't announced anything, of having the AFC Conference Game at a neutral site since however they do it will impact the top seeding. I am not sure if I love the idea, as I think the best way to get some fans not to add a * to the season is to keep things as simple as possible. Bills/Bengals is a No Contest due to very understandable reasons, the rest of the chips just fall as they may.