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NFL 2022 - WEEK 5


Dolfan in NYC
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5 minutes ago, NoFistsJustFlips said:

No don't use all the data, just use the data that confirms my bias.

ahh this guy again. LMAO the biggest sheep in the farm. I thought you muted me?

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Quick someone give me a user title, biggest sheep on the farm lol.

I didn't post that response because it's you. That's the same response I'd give any poster who is arguing in favor of saying the fix is in on the NFL, but saying to not count certain stuff that doesn't conform to the thesis. Data is data you don't get to pick & choose it, you use it all and let the data tell you the story. Not the other way around.

I have a thing against conspiracies in general. It just takes too many people staying quiet. And we as humans are terrible at that. Everything leaks. In every field. In every societal facet. This isn't a you thing, or even an NFL specific thing. This is a conspiracy theories are just dumb in general thing. But carry on your hate boner for me dawg.

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Even IF they wanted to fix games,and I don't think anyone's to that crazy or stupid to try how would you pull it off? Every call is subject to review, in the huddle or otherwise. Occam's razor: don't look for a conspiracy when it's better explained by incompetence and human error.

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1 minute ago, Kuetsar said:

Even IF they wanted to fix games,and I don't think anyone's to that crazy or stupid to try how would you pull it off? Every call is subject to review, in the huddle or otherwise. Occam's razor: don't look for a conspiracy when it's better explained by incompetence and human error.

so let's just play devils advocate and I'm sure I'l get flamed for this but fuck it it happened and cannot be denied.

Look at the Patriot's- Packers game from Sunday. Play clock was at 0 for at least 2 seconds and the Pat's were still able to get the play off and score a TD. It wasn't reviewed and screwed a lot of parlays.  

The Ravens could have been up with an easy field goal but they go for it on a 4th and 3? Why? Was the coach stupid?

Same with the Broncos losing week 1 to Seattle. Huge Primetime game in which more than 75% of the flags went in favor of the Seahawks. Hell the announcers even mentioned it.  Don't tell me ref's don't influence the game. You'd have to blind to not see it.   Shit, they did everything they could this past Sunday Am to keep the Saints-Vikings game close. 

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47 minutes ago, Pedro said:

so let's just play devils advocate and I'm sure I'l get flamed for this but fuck it it happened and cannot be denied.

Look at the Patriot's- Packers game from Sunday. Play clock was at 0 for at least 2 seconds and the Pat's were still able to get the play off and score a TD. It wasn't reviewed and screwed a lot of parlays.  

The Ravens could have been up with an easy field goal but they go for it on a 4th and 3? Why? Was the coach stupid?

Same with the Broncos losing week 1 to Seattle. Huge Primetime game in which more than 75% of the flags went in favor of the Seahawks. Hell the announcers even mentioned it.  Don't tell me ref's don't influence the game. You'd have to blind to not see it.   Shit, they did everything they could this past Sunday Am to keep the Saints-Vikings game close. 

So in this hypothetical,  at least the coaches and referees are in on the fix? What insentive would either group have to do this? If a coach is throwing games,  how does he keep his million dollar a year job? Are the gamblers going to pay John Harbaugh more money for a longer period of time than the Ravens? If not,  that would be a ridiculous risk. I already pointed out how much money officials make, so why would they throw that money away? How long is a referee's career? 10 years? 15? For 18 work days,  they're getting on average $200K, are the bookies giving them a better deal than that? You have to factor in that if you get caught you go to federal prison,  what dollar amount would you have to offer these guys to risk that pay check? It's not like this is their full time job, or their main career, this is what these dudes do on the side. Even if they were willing to throw a game,  do you really think Fan Duel or Draft Kings actually cares who wins these games? They are going to get their money based purely on the fact that every single person who gets in these games is flat out guessing and the games being less predictable is good. Every time a coach makes a stupid call,  they make money,  every time a ref blows a call,  they make money,  guess what,  they also make money if the coach makes the opposite call and the ref makes a great call. Their entire goal is to get a many people being both sides of the bet as possible. Even if they break even on the straight bets against the spread,  they make money on everybody who bet on any of the 10 guys who didn't win MVP even if the favorite wins. As long as you bet money they win. Even the best gamblers don't win 60% of the time,  and most people aren't even close to being good gamblers. They can't lose,  so why try to fix games? 

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7 hours ago, supremebve said:

So in this hypothetical,  at least the coaches and referees are in on the fix? What insentive would either group have to do this? If a coach is throwing games,  how does he keep his million dollar a year job? Are the gamblers going to pay John Harbaugh more money for a longer period of time than the Ravens? If not,  that would be a ridiculous risk. I already pointed out how much money officials make, so why would they throw that money away? How long is a referee's career? 10 years? 15? For 18 work days,  they're getting on average $200K, are the bookies giving them a better deal than that? You have to factor in that if you get caught you go to federal prison,  what dollar amount would you have to offer these guys to risk that pay check? It's not like this is their full time job, or their main career, this is what these dudes do on the side. Even if they were willing to throw a game,  do you really think Fan Duel or Draft Kings actually cares who wins these games? They are going to get their money based purely on the fact that every single person who gets in these games is flat out guessing and the games being less predictable is good. Every time a coach makes a stupid call,  they make money,  every time a ref blows a call,  they make money,  guess what,  they also make money if the coach makes the opposite call and the ref makes a great call. Their entire goal is to get a many people being both sides of the bet as possible. Even if they break even on the straight bets against the spread,  they make money on everybody who bet on any of the 10 guys who didn't win MVP even if the favorite wins. As long as you bet money they win. Even the best gamblers don't win 60% of the time,  and most people aren't even close to being good gamblers. They can't lose,  so why try to fix games? 

Your points are all valid.  I've often thought of what incentive the NFL would have to fix games and the only thing I can think of is to boost ratings. I believe they already have high ratings but the closer the game the more people will watch. If it's a Sunday, Monday, Thursday night game and a team is up 14+ pts casual viewers may change the channel or decide to go to bed for work the next day. Where as  if it's a close game they may decide to continue watching to the end as they are more invested.  

The clock should go off like NBA when it hits zero it makes more sense than what they do now.  I also hate when a flag is thrown only to be picked up and said "there is no penalty on the play"  well obviously you saw something or you wouldn't have thrown the flag to begin with.  

People will say football is a fast paced sport and ref's can't be perfect.  I agree, however, look at hockey, another fast paced hard hitting sport but the ref's rarely influence the outcome of the game. 

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10 hours ago, NoFistsJustFlips said:

Quick someone give me a user title, biggest sheep on the farm lol.

Sure.  

Also, yeah, ain't no referee-based fixes happening in the NFL for two reasons.

1) There are too many people involved.  There are 7 referees on the field (8 if you count the replay ref). In order to meaningfully swing more than just a call or two, you'd need coverage across the field and on the line.  I'd guess you'd probably need at least 4 of them to be in on it.  And frankly, that's a lot of points of potential failure.  

2) The referees actions are watched like fucking hawks. Their salary was mentioned earlier, well in order to justify that salary, everything that they do is watched, scrutinized, and graded, every week.  The NFL has a whole team of staff dedicated to this, and does weekly "here's how the refs fucked up" reports and lists EVERY offense the referees missed or called incorrectly, no matter how insignificant.  Any official that doesn't make the grade or is egregiously bad is quickly demoted, unassigned, and/or terminated, per union rules.   

And that one is just the league itself that watches them.  The actions of an official are watched by literally millions of eyes, and if someone makes any action that's going to push the game in one direction or another, you'll hear about it. Just google "Golf cheating caught on TV" and you'll see what I mean.  An audience that's roughly an order of magnitude smaller than the size of the NFL's, and the (usually unsuspecting) cheaters are all easily caught.

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35 minutes ago, Kevin Wilson said:

Good for Blake. If he saved his money he is set for life, still healthy. Now he can just enjoy himself for the next 50 years. That's the dream, for normal humans.

Eh, not my dream.  My firm is finishing up year four of a ten-year plan to grow the business.  We’ve already grown a lot in the past four years.  My boss - the CEO - casually mentioned last week that he hopes we grow fast enough to attract some attention and be bought out before we hit our 10-year goals.

News to me and I’m not sure how to feel about that.  It’s not a bad outcome.  I’d likely become rich enough to retire on the spot.  But I’m paid well as it is and I quite like my job.  Not sure growing big enough to be taken over is worth all the extra stress and lack of sleep.  I may end up going elsewhere before someone comes and offers me money I can’t refuse.

I had no idea Bortles was in the league the past two years.  I was about to say good for him for retiring quietly in 2019, but I googled him first and found out he’s only been without a team since April.  

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To quickly follow up on something from last week - and so not surprising for the world we now live

The dude who ran onto the field Monday and got leveled by Bobby Wagner has filed a police report claiming he was "blatantly assaulted"

(For the record - TMZ is the one with the report and it is coming from the organization that planned the nonsense so it is obvious they are using it just for attention)

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49 minutes ago, RIPPA said:

To quickly follow up on something from last week - and so not surprising for the world we now live

The dude who ran onto the field Monday and got leveled by Bobby Wagner has filed a police report claiming he was "blatantly assaulted"

(For the record - TMZ is the one with the report and it is coming from the organization that planned the nonsense so it is obvious they are using it just for attention)

Someone once described it when DJT filed knowingly frivolous lawsuits as Tweets with a filing fee.  

That seems to be what this is.    Some judge is going to see it and either dismiss it immediately with prejudice or scream at the complainants, humiliate their lawyers, make a big speech about what abject stupidity this is... and then dismiss it immediately with prejudice. 

@Lawful Metal (out of character please) can you confirm that? 

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14 minutes ago, Dolfan in NYC said:

Someone once described it when DJT filed knowingly frivolous lawsuits as Tweets with a filing fee.  

That seems to be what this is.    Some judge is going to see it and either dismiss it immediately with prejudice or scream at the complainants, humiliate their lawyers, make a big speech about what abject stupidity this is... and then dismiss it immediately with prejudice. 

@Lawful Metal (out of character please) can you confirm that? 

Out of character? I’m always this way!

Generally speaking, by running onto the field, you consent to whatever they do to you. Be some paperwork, less actually laughing at you in court.

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