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El Dragon

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El Dragon last won the day on January 28

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About El Dragon

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    Los Ingobernables DVDVR
  • Birthday 12/14/1988

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    The STL

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  1. El Dragon

    MLB HOF 2019 Ballot

    At work so can't go into extreme detail, but if you took Baines at any point over Chuck Knobloch in 97 (344 average, 448 OBP, while playing a solid 2nd base, 8.7 WAR) then I have some serious questions for you. I know he is most famous for the Yips destroying his career, but his best comparison through his age 27 season is Rod Carew. His 7 year peak (38.7) almost matches Baines career WAR (38.8) and his 3 year peak (22.2) beats Baines 7 year peak (21.4)
  2. El Dragon

    MLB HOF 2019 Ballot

    Anyone using hits or RBI's to justify Baines in the hall is being silly. He was a supposed great hitter who never hit 30 home runs in a season, who only had 100 RBI's 4 times in his career. All he did was be a solid starter but not overly good player for a long period of time. We were arguing if Rafael Palmero should get in because nobody ever viewed him as one of the best players in baseball. But he was sure as hell a lot better then Harold Baines was to an insane degree. Baines only led the league in a stat once in his entire career: Slugging Percentage in 1984. He never finished higher then 9th in an MVP race, and he didn't get an MVP vote at any point in the last 14 years of his career. So the base stats other then just counting make Baines look like a bad candidate, but the advanced stats make Baines just look horrific. By career WAR from Baseball Reference, he ranks 58th among Right Fielders all time, behind names such as David Justice, Reggie Sanders, and Paul O'Neil. He is tied with Juan Gonzalez, and Magglio Ordonez on this one. Fangraphs WAR has him at 68th, even worse, and he's set to be passed by Justin Upton this year. WAR 7, which basically takes the best 7 year run of a players career and puts them into a number to make it easier to compare other players primes is just flat out brutal to Baines as well. Baines, by there scoring, was only at 21.4 WAR in his best 7 year stretch. That is a very very mediocre 3 WAR per season, which basically just puts you at "solid starter" ranking by the average WAR mindset. That is 105th among all Right Fielders all time. That puts him behind players like Josh Reddick, Jermaine Dye, Nick Swisher, and god damned Trot Nixon. If your best 7 year stretch can't match Trot Nixon's best 7 year stretch, you aren't a Hall of Famer. The End. Also JAWS at the end of the day, which is basically a combined number from WAR and WAR 7, has Baines as the 75th best Right Fielder of all time, just behind Brian Jordan and Shin-Soo Choo. This isn't even going into arguably my favorite stat thing against Baines. Someone came up with the clever idea of modifying career WAR to a Stat called WAA. Basically, WAR means Wins Above Replacement, for those who don't know. Replacement Level is the point were you can basically pick up a random free agent and get about the same type of production for next to nothing. But going above Replacement isn't super useful for higher caliber players. WAA is Wins Above Average. It takes what the Average production is from an average starter at that time and takes the math of value off of that. Basically, the floor raises a good deal. It great at basically "punishing" compiliers: Players who stick around just adding stats while not being particularly great during that period. As an example, Babe Ruth was worth 172 WAR in his career, but taking out the excess, WAA has him at 140.5. It basically moves the goal posts to change for excess. As an example on why this is good to evaluate elite players like this, Carl Yastrzemski is at 88.4 career WAR were as Joe DiMaggio is at 83.6. But WAA cuts out a lot of Yastrzemski's excess seasons to DiMaggio's excellent ones. Yastrzsemsi's WAA is 46.3, were as DiMaggio's is 63.8 A good basline for this is, if you have more then 100 WAA, you are on Baseballs Mount Rushmore (Ruth, Bonds, Cobb, Mays, Wagner), if you are 80 or above you are one of the 20 best ball players ever (Musial, Gehrig, Mantle as examples), if you are 60 or above you are a sure fire no doubt about it HOFer unless other shit is involved (DiMaggio, Pujols, Eddie Matthews, Joe Morgan), 40 you are probable HOF lock, barring voters being idiots (Griffey, Yount, Larkin, Bobby Grich, Jim Edmonds), 30 is where I would say you are no longer a HOF lock but someone who is most likely going to get in (Biggio, McCovey, Raines, Scheffield), and 20 is what I view as the "Starting Point for HOF discussion" were you can kinda start talking about the player in HOF context, but on if you think they deserve it is much more open to all sorts of context arguments (Dave Winfield, Fred McGriff, Luis Aparicio, Kirby Puckett), 10 is "Probably Not a Hall of Famer unless the voters do something really weird" territory (Julio Franco, Omar Vizquel, Steve Finley, and Red Scheondist). I wrote these paragraphs for 2 purposes: 1 it's a really fun stat more baseball nerds should look into for this type of stuff. It's not an end all be all but it makes a fun reference point. And 2: Because Harold Baines, who just got elected to the Hall of Fame, ranked up a whopping 1.8 WAA in his career. Over a 22 year career he was only worth about 2 wins above the average starting Right Fielders/DH's of his time. And he just got elected to the HOF. That's not great.
  3. El Dragon

    MLB HOF 2019 Ballot

    Point some out.
  4. El Dragon

    MLB HOF 2019 Ballot

    Martinez was gonna get in this year regardless, and the voting had already been cast. And Martinez's name would have been on this commitee in 5 years anyway, and if they wanted to put in a DH that bad he would have been in.
  5. El Dragon

    MLB HOF 2019 Ballot

    I'm gonna come up with a list of players who fell off the ballot in there 1st year since Baines first came on the ballot that I think you could make a case for over Harold Baines. Let it be said I value upside a lot more over consistently average 2017: Jorge Posada (17 votes), Magglio Ordonez (3 votes), Edgar Renteria (1 vote), Mike Cameron (0 votes), Derrek Lee (0 votes), J.D. Drew (0 votes) 2016: Jim Edmonds (11 votes, you fucking idiots), Jason Kendall (2 votes), Troy Glaus (0 votes) 2015: Carlos Delgado (21 votes), Brian Giles (0 Votes), Jason Schmidt (0 votes) 2014: Moises Alou (6 votes), Luis Gonzalez (5 votes), 2013: Kenny Lofton (18 votes, you stupid idiots), David Wells (5 votes), Steve Finley (4 votes), Shawn Green (2 votes), Julio Franco (6 votes) 2012: Brad Radke (2 votes) Tim Salmon (5 votes) 2011: Kevin Brown (12 votes, once more, you guys are silly), John Olerud (4 votes) 2010: Robin Ventura (7 votes), Kevin Appier (1 vote), Ray Lankford (0 votes) 2009: David Cone (21 votes), Matt Williams (7 votes), Mark Grace (22 votes) 2008: Chuck Finley (1 vote), Chuck Knobloch (1 vote) 2007: Bret Saberhagen (7 votes) This... was a really not good election on Baines. Smith is a whatever choice. He's a closer and figuring out value on closers is hard, and if Sutter is in Smith getting in seems fine. But Baines? Ooh boy Baines is on the short list of worst HOF picks ever.
  6. El Dragon

    MLB HOF 2019 Ballot

    I have opinions on this that are not positive. Good on Baines who seems like a great dude, but oof. Will give a more advanced post on my problems shortly.
  7. El Dragon

    [MOVIE] 2018 UPCOMING MOVIE THREAD

    So Bumblebee is sitting at 100% on RT with 16 reviews in. So there is that.
  8. El Dragon

    2018-19 NHL: Period One

    Thanks to the Canucksfor keeping the #BluesforHughes movement alive.
  9. El Dragon

    Your HOF! Who's missing and Why?

    My only question is how Gary Carter, the all timr best catcher by WAR7 and 2nd bedt behind Bench in career WAR and JAWS is your floor. Cause if he is the floor its iffy if Pudge, Piazza, Fisk and Berra should be in, let alone anyone else.
  10. And the one negative review was because the animation was "janky", which, you know, was pretty clearly the point.
  11. El Dragon

    Your HOF! Who's missing and Why?

    The thing is Catchers are so hard. People say they are under represented in the Hall of Fame, and I think that's fair, but outside of the true top class (Bench, Carter, Rodriguez, Piazza, Berra, and Fisk), it's kind of just a hodge podge of "Maybe they get in?" Like, any other position the list of 100% obvious inclusions usually goes 10-15 deep and in Catcher it just goes to 6. I'm sadly getting ready for work, but I will come up with more detailed thoughts on them both shortly.
  12. El Dragon

    Your HOF! Who's missing and Why?

    Is this just a "Make cases for guys not in the Hall but you think should" game? Cause I'm up for that. Let's start with the era I will know the most about and that's that 1970-1995 run. I will not mention guys like Kenny Lofton argument even though he kinda sorta fits for obvious reasons. I'll kinda give a quick hit list of players I think might be worth talking about. Catcher: Ted Simmons, Thurman Munson 1st Basemen: Keith Hernandez, and while he just barely makes this time period, I'll bump a personal favorite in John Olerud 2nd Basemen: Like, do we even need to have the Grich and Whitaker conversation, or can we just say they are both gigantic fuckups by the voters? Outside of them, I think Willie Randolph can be a good discussion point 3rd Base: Graig Nettles might fit into that Grich and Whitaker category or you might view him as a guy who just stuck around forever, but he's probably worth discussing. Short Stop: I got nobody here. I'll give the voters that they tend to handle Short Stop very well. Outfield: Honestly, there are more outfielders from this era I think shouldn't be in the Hall that are then the other way around. The 2 big ones are Reggie Smith and Dwight Evans Pitchers: Rick Reuschel might be the most underrated pitcher of the last half century and talking about him as HOF case would tickle me pink.
  13. El Dragon

    2018-19 NHL: Period One

    Because they can't suck right. The season is basically already over and now we are going to play our way out of the bottom 10 so we can give Buffalo our 1st round pick because that's fucking Blues hockey.
  14. Let me just say I eagerly await the scene were Tony gets back to Earth, triea to find Peppee, and finds nothing other then a pile of dust. You know its happening.
  15. Sitting at 74 for 74 now. I've seen a reviewer who has basically said this is one of only 5 times he left a theater completely blown away, joining Raiders of the Lost Ark, E.T, Star Wars, and Matrix. I honestly think I'm going to see this movie in theaters multiple times.
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